October 19 - October 25

[CzechPunter]

[four-leaf]

Margarita Gasparyan to beat Varvara Lepchenko (-1.5 sets) with bet365 @ 2.37 

Here I can't belive in the disaster Lepchenko. She missed everything she could miss in Linz barely holding her own serve against Flipkens. She was truly awful during the hole match and went out in straight sets. She deserved her loss big time and I don't expect her to improve enough for this match. Gasparyan was doing ok in Linz losing to eventual finalist Friedsam in the quarters. She still did good to get to the quarters and she is at home in Moscow next week. Should be an easy straight sets victory for Gasparyan.

Lesia Tsurenko to beat Aleksandra Krunic with bet365 @ 2.25

Krunic have met Tsurenko three times and lost every time and I don't think she did good enough in Linz even though she got to the quarters to make me belive that she will win this match. Tsurenko is good enough to win this match.  I just find it hard to belive in Krunic in this one.

Edited October 17, 2015 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

Taylor Fritz/Blaz Rola over 21.5 games with bet365 @ 1.72

I saw Blaz play yesterday and he was really playing good as well as following the result in Taylor Fritz match and it leads me to play the overs here because also Fritz have played very good lately as he is beginning to show his talent. It should be quite a tight match between these two and 21.5 is good enough total. Gets covered with a tie-break and a 6-3 result for any player in a straight sets win but I even belive there might be 3 sets played here.

[four-leaf]

Sorry about this post. Crappy bet. I even posted it in the wrong thread.

 

Edited October 18, 2015 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

Stockholm open qualies again.

Nicolas Almagro/Mate Pavic under 18.5 games with bet365 @ 1.80

From what I saw from Almagro yesterday he is like I've said playing his usual stuff and that should be enough to get this one go under 19 games.

Philipp Petzschner to beat Federico Gaio (-1.5 sets) with bet365 @ 2.10

Philipp is doing ok now even though he got his serve broken once yesterday but I fully expect him to move on from this match also in straight sets. So far he is playing quite solid with few unforced errors. Good serving and few unforced errors should be enough to get through in straights for him today. The italian is mostly losing to better players in straight sets in challengers and he favors clay and he has'nt played any matches on hardcourt lately. He only won yesterday because he played a lousy swedish opponent called Jonathan Mridha. Nothing to write home about. Today will be a different story.

Edited October 18, 2015 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

Peter Torebko/Maximilian Marterer över 20.5 games with bet365 @ 1.80

Going on recent meetings here. They've met twice this season and both times there have been far more then 20 games. First Maximilian won 4-6 6-3 6-4 and after that Peter won 7-6 7-5. There could easily be over 20 games again.

[CzechPunter]

Back David Ferrer to win the Erste Bank Open for a 4/10 stake at 5.00 with Bet365

Back Ivo Karlovic to beat Andreas Seppi for a 7/10 stake at 1.60 with BetVictor

Back Dennis Novak Total Games - Under 10.5 for a 7/10 stake at 1.72 with Paddy Power

The conditions shouldn't be the ideal fit for Ferrer, but he's been superb recently and he was in finals here last year as well, so I quite fancy his chances and odds. Meanwhile, Ivo Karlovic and Radek Stepanek should be way too strong for their opponents, Andreas Seppi and Dennis Novak.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/erste-bank-open-betting-jo-wilfried-tsonga-leads-the-field-in-vienna

[CzechPunter]

Back Svetlana Kuznetsova to win the Kremlin Cup for a 2/10 stake at 17.00 with Paddy Power

Back Elena Vesnina (+4.5) to beat Dominika Cibulkova for a 7/10 stake at 1.91 with Betway

Back Kristina Mladenovic to beat Carla Suarez-Navarro for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with Unibet

Can't see those who will participate in the WTA Finals going far in Moscow, they're likely to leave as early as possible, so Kuznetsova could take advantage of that and win on home soil. Vesnina also has a good record against Cibulkova, so fancy her to cover the 4.5 line against her more often than not. Finally, the conditions should certainly help Mladenovic in the match-up against CSN, so I'll take her at odds against.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/kremlin-cup-betting-last-chance-for-a-place-in-singapore

[four-leaf]

Stockholm open qualies again.

Nicolas Almagro/Mate Pavic under 18.5 games with bet365 @ 1.80

 

Philipp Petzschner to beat Federico Gaio (-1.5 sets) with bet365 @ 2.10

 

There was not mutch to like about these two bets. I was as wrong as I could be. Hoping for Tsurenko and Gasparyan to do their jobs today.

[WinningTipster]

1 PICK FOR ATP MOSCOW:

GABASHVILI-6 GAMES OVER ILKEL @ 1.39 on pinnaclesports
Expect it to be an easy win for the local player Gabashvili against a Turkish wild-card Ilkel with no real results or experience on fast indoor courts

 

[CzechPunter]

Back John Isner (-2.5) to beat Kenny De Schepper for a 7/10 stake at 1.80 with Betway

Back David Ferrer (-4.5) to beat Albert Ramos for a 7/10 stake at 1.72 with Paddy Power

Back Jan-Lennard Struff (-2.5) to beat Sergiy Stakhovsky for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with Paddy Power

Three favourites for me tomorrow, couldn't see anything else to be honest and I quite like the lines at odds either way. The surface doesn't seem to be extremely quick from what I've seen, so there should be enough opportunities for breaks, meaning that Isner, Ferrer and Struff should all have time for covering the handicaps. Ferrer and Isner don't need much reasoning I guess, while Struff has a 5-1 record against the Ukrainian and he also beat him 6-4 6-2 at the beginning of this month, so chances are that he's going to win pretty easily as well.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/erste-bank-open-betting-david-ferrer-and-john-isner-kick-off-their-vienna-campaigns

[four-leaf]

Apart from the 3 other bets I placed during the weekend these ladies really did the job so now I can move on to other matches. But I wont do any more writeups here if I don't get something right. No fun if nothing goes right but I'm not to worried.

Five-fold with bet365 @ 10.66

Pablo Cuevas beat Pere Riba (-1.5 sets) @ 1.40

Jack Sock to beat Pablo Carreno-Busta (-1.5 sets) @ 1.57

Jarkko Nieminen to beat Daniel Muños de la Nava (-1.5 sets) @ 1.90

Jan-Lennard Struff to beat Sergiy Stakhovsky @ 1.57 

John Isner to beat Kenny de Schepper (-1.5 sets) @ 1.61

 

Looks good with all these five bets. Pablo has a stunning record over Pere on clay. Never lost a set against him in 4 matches and every time they have gone head to head it's been crushing defeats for Pere on his best surface and now on hard. The way I see it that match can only go one way.

A straight sets win for Jack is fully within his reach. Pablo has never been good on indoor hard and against Jack he's probably chanceless. I saw Jack practicing on sunday so I can tell that he's in good form. He did some really good shots against his hitting partner. Pablo is not having any good form at all and comes from clay where he has'nt even won a challenger lately. He's been losing lately to players not even close to Jacks standards and it's been on clay his best surface. He's played one match on indoor hard in Metz which he lost to Micha Zverev in 3 sets. Pablos record in Stockholm is that he has only won one match where Jurgen Zopp retired. He's been in Stockholm three times and never won a match for real. Even lost to Ivo Minar in his first match in Stockholm. Last year he went out against Pierre-Hugues Herbert in straight sets. And the year before in straight sets against Benoit Paire. Jack should win in 2 easily. 

Jarkko does his last match in Stockholm and will have the hole crowd with him as usual because Stockholm open is more or less his home tournament. It's where he learned to play tennis. He often wins in straight sets in his first match in Stockholm when he gets to play against players of Daniels calibre. He too good in Stockholm to lose a sets against Daniel.

Czech you are probably right about Jan-Lennard and Isner so that's why I've picked a win for Jan-Lennard and Isner in straight sets. Not mutch more to say about to these five bets except for some of the prices that have changed during the night.

[WinningTipster]

1 PICK FOR WTA MOSCOW TODAY:

KASATKINA TO DEFEAT KANIA @ 1.28 on betfair
Another bet on a local player in Moscow. 17 years old Kasatkina has huge potential, winning lots of tournaments in Juniors and should be top-50 or even top-30 in WTA ranking next year.

 

[CzechPunter]

Back Tommy Haas (+4.5) to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga for a 7/10 stake at 1.72 with Paddy Power

Back Fabio Fognini to beat Paul-Henri Mathieu for a 7/10 stake at 1.57 with Betway

Back Ivo Karlovic (-2.5) to beat Sergiy Stakhovsky for a 7/10 stake at 2.02 with Unibet

Can't win them all unfortunately and a bad day had to come at some point after so many good ones, 0/3 on Tuesday. Three for me tomorrow - Haas should be able to put up some solid resistance against Tsonga in the Vienna conditions, Fognini should be too strong for the out-of-form Mathieu (who lost to Arnaboldi last time out), and the ultra-consistent Karlovic should also be able to get the job done against Stakhovsky.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/erste-bank-open-betting-tsonga-vs-haas-the-main-highlight-on-wednesday

[WinningTipster]

1 PICK FOR ATP VIENNA TOMORROW:
JANOWICZ-JOHNSON OVER 22 GAMES @ 1.65 on pinnaclesports
With Janowicz gaining some form recently, expect it to be a long close match between two great fast court players.

 

[potus]

I went in big on Bernard Tomic to beat Marcos Baghdatis because the odds seemed very generous (8/13). 

 

Just watched the first set, Tomic seemed to have no ability whatsoever to convert winning positions. He was a break up, 0-30s up, break points up, set points up, mini-breaks and set points up in the tie-break and still contrived to lose the set 7-6. Is this a common problem of his? Frustrating to see a top 20 player unable to convert so many chances.

[CzechPunter]

Back Jerzy Janowicz to beat Steve Johnson for a 7/10 stake at 2.02 with Unibet

Back R.Stepanek/F.Fognini - Over 2.5 sets for a 7/10 stake at 2.25 with Paddy Power

Back David Ferrer (-3.5) to beat Guillermo Garcia-Lopez for a 7/10 stake at 1.61 with Paddy Power

Good day on Wednesday, fancy three tomorrow - Janowicz looks like a good bet to me at odds against vs. Johnson, he's the favourite actually in my opinion. Fognini and Stepanek should go to three sets, neither is consistent, especially Fognini, who should win while throwing a set away like he did against Mathieu today. Finally, I do think that Ferrer will fully recover from the awkward performance against Ramos and beat GGL easily. After all, he has a 7-1 record against him.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/erste-bank-open-betting-janowicz-faces-johnson-ferrer-plays-against-garcia-lopez

[four-leaf]

Finally 3 of 3 again. Some good work there again Czech 

[CzechPunter]

Haas made me sweat though, I was hoping for him to lose the second-set TB, but yeah, he did hold on for long enough in the end.

[draganblazevski]

Back Jerzy Janowicz to beat Steve Johnson for a 7/10 stake at 2.02 with Unibet

Back R.Stepanek/F.Fognini - Over 2.5 sets for a 7/10 stake at 2.25 with Paddy Power

Back David Ferrer (-3.5) to beat Guillermo Garcia-Lopez for a 7/10 stake at 1.61 with Paddy Power

Good day on Wednesday, fancy three tomorrow - Janowicz looks like a good bet to me at odds against vs. Johnson, he's the favourite actually in my opinion. Fognini and Stepanek should go to three sets, neither is consistent, especially Fognini, who should win while throwing a set away like he did against Mathieu today. Finally, I do think that Ferrer will fully recover from the awkward performance against Ramos and beat GGL easily. After all, he has a 7-1 record against him.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/erste-bank-open-betting-janowicz-faces-johnson-ferrer-plays-against-garcia-lopez

you are the best czech .my faceebook is dragan blazevski  skopje macedonija.col me please i want to be you freand

 

[CzechPunter]

I'm afraid that I'm not active on Facebook

Back Steve Johnson (+3.5) to beat Kevin Anderson for a 7/10 stake at 1.72 with Paddy Power

Back Ivo Karlovic (-1.5) to beat Ernests Gulbis for a 7/10 stake at 1.75 with Betway

I simply don't trust Anderson and Gulbis at the moment, both looked pretty awkward in their previous matches, slightly lucky to still be here in all fairness, so chances are that this is going to end tomorrow. Karlovic should be simply too much for Gulbis, the Croat is playing superbly at the moment, while it's all about serve in Johnson's case. He was flawless in that regard today, however, so I think that he'll at least keep things close tomorrow.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/erste-bank-open-betting-ferrer-the-main-favourite-after-tsonga-s-departure

[Simeon Borisof]

Czech,what are your thoughts on Berdych right now in Stockholm?Dimitrov will face him today,being in good form and winning comfortably.ATP Stockholm is the 1st ATP tournament Grigor has won since he turned pro and he wants to make statement there so he plays at his best and i was thinking if it could be a long rally today?

[CzechPunter]

The truth is that I haven't seen a single match from Stockholm, but yeah, Dimitrov seems to be playing at least decent tennis again (beating Almagro 6-2 6-4 is a very good result) and the H2H record features 6 three-setters (in 6 meetings), so the overs don't look bad purely based on that. Berdych can also relax a little bit now, he's already officially qualified for the ATP Finals, although I'm sure that he would like to win another title, even if it's only a 250 one.

Edited October 23, 2015 by CzechPunter

[four-leaf]

Czech,what are your thoughts on Berdych right now in Stockholm?Dimitrov will face him today,being in good form and winning comfortably.ATP Stockholm is the 1st ATP tournament Grigor has won since he turned pro and he wants to make statement there so he plays at his best and i was thinking if it could be a long rally today?

I was at both matches when Berdych and Dimitrov played yesterday live and I think that we will se a three set battle tonight. Dimitrov served very stable and so was Berdych. Some people who also was at the matches told me that Dimitrov was "playing around" to mutch to be able to beat Berdych today but still it should defenitely be a match with more games then what the total is at bookies. 2 is the best price I've found. Bet365 is having 1.80 on over so they have it as favourite option while Paddy thinks it's more likely to go under.

Tomas Berdych/Grigor Dimitrov Over 23.5 games with Paddypower @ 2.0 

[CzechPunter]

Back Ernests Gulbis (+2.5) to beat Steve Johnson for a 7/10 stake at 1.57 with Paddy Power

Back David Ferrer to beat Gael Monfils for a 7/10 stake at 1.53 with BetVictor

Not easy to find bets for tomorrow, but I'll go with these two. Ferrer should be way too consistent for Monfils, who might be very flashy, but who's also very erratic. Meanwhile, Gulbis has already beaten two powerful guys in Vienna and has more experience than Johnson when it comes to pressure situations, so I like his chances against the American. He should be able to cover the 2.5 games handicap line much more often than not in my opinion.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/erste-bank-open-betting-four-remain-in-the-hunt-for-the-vienna-title

[CzechPunter]

Back Svetlana Kuznetsova to win the Kremlin Cup for a 2/10 stake at 17.00 with Paddy Power

[CzechPunter]

Back David Ferrer (-3.5) to beat Steve Johnson for a 7/10 stake at 1.66 with Paddy Power

Can't see past Ferrer, I really can't. The pressure is bound to get to Johnson at some point and Ferrer is so much better even if it doesn't, so chances are that this handicap line will be covered with ease. Ferrer has been flawless since the match against Ramos, he's just not going to lose against Johnson in the finals (although I guess that stranger things have happened).

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/erste-bank-open-betting-david-ferrer-faces-steve-johnson-in-the-vienna-finals

[potus]

Back David Ferrer (-3.5) to beat Steve Johnson for a 7/10 stake at 1.66 with Paddy Power

Can't see past Ferrer, I really can't. The pressure is bound to get to Johnson at some point and Ferrer is so much better even if it doesn't, so chances are that this handicap line will be covered with ease. Ferrer has been flawless since the match against Ramos, he's just not going to lose against Johnson in the finals (although I guess that stranger things have happened).

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/erste-bank-open-betting-david-ferrer-faces-steve-johnson-in-the-vienna-finals

3-0 Johnson early on. I hope I haven't been sold down the river here.