NBL 2015/16

[Ashtee]

Two plays on tonigts game:

Adelaide @ 2.00

It doesn't bother me that Randle is out, they are the more healthy, united and puposeful team. Currently around 1.81 & -2 is still a good deal IMO.

Adelaide - New Zealand UNDER 176.5 @ 1.95

I can't support this move for an over with Randle out (0-3 before he arrived, BTW). 36ers have played some no-defence teams since the 211 with #7 Townsville, who were all guns ablazing that night and on fire off some insipd performances. 36ers games have actually been more defensive at home this season, while Breakers overs come at home. They are 1-11 away. Breakers always like to set up and slow the pace and that's what could be expected in this hugely important game. Previous meetings: 161A,186N,168N.

[Ashtee]

I think those two might have fallen over!

Illawarra - Melbourne Over 180.5 @ 1.92

Previous meetings 174M,189I,193M. Melbourne don't get this high too often at all but no surprise to find they are 5-7 away, while #1 Illawarra are higher at home and usually over playing the middle ranked teams. 180.5 was as much as I was keen on, so would probably leave the current number.

[Ashtee]

New Zealand @ 1.38

Extra importance applies to this game for both but Cairns 1-11 away record says something in itself. Particuarly after a tough travel day and with Breakers crowd bringing them home. NZ a better chance than this IMO!

[binomial]

Sydney -1.5 

under 169.5

sydney know how to give up alot of points but just don't see alot of points in the depleted perth lineup.

[Ashtee]

Yeah, UNDER is tempting, considering Perth won't want to stray from their brand and Sydney are better defensively at home.

Got on the early Sydney price at 2.11

[binomial]

going with Townsville and over.

Townsville are going the better for mine and Cairns are poor on the road. Seems a reasonable chance Townsville come to play as they nearly always have and Cairns are half hearted as they often are.

[Ashtee]

Taken Townsville - Cairns UNDER 165 @ 1.92

I'll stick with the two lowest ranked teams now it's gotten a few points higher than what binomial will have got.

[binomial]

going with:

NZ -4

Illawarra -6.5

Illawarra over 185.5

Adelaide should bring the defence which usually leads to 20+ open dunks for the opposition. Illawarra should come to play with no game for about a week.

Whereas, not sure Melbourne will match NZ intensity with the Sunday game.

 

[Ashtee]

On NZ as well. -8.5 @ 1.91 once Ii got the news.

That Illawarra over is tempting too. #1 & 2 ranked teams but decided to stay out this time.

[binomial]

Townsville v Sydney over 173.5

Jett should get 50+ layups and hopefully Childress turns it on in what could be his final game.

[Ashtee]

22 hours ago, binomial said:

going with:

NZ -4

Illawarra -6.5

Illawarra over 185.5

Adelaide should bring the defence which usually leads to 20+ open dunks for the opposition. Illawarra should come to play with no game for about a week.

Whereas, not sure Melbourne will match NZ intensity with the Sunday game.

 

Thought it was a slight injustice commentary referring to Randle's HT buzzer beater as a 'Hail Mary', considering he'd probably do it again if challenged.

Edited February 12, 2016 by Ashtee

[Ashtee]

12 hours ago, binomial said:

Townsville v Sydney over 173.5

Jett should get 50+ layups and hopefully Childress turns it on in what could be his final game.

I think you might have got that cover. Well called.

[binomial]

thanks. hasn't been often this season unfortunately.

going with

perth -7.5 1u

over 168.5 2u

talk gibson and petrie may not play and knight is out for perth i believe. gibson has looked terrible and disinterested most games so the back of him may see a lift from others.

perth will want to tune up for finals versus couldn't care less allstar like intensity, i think more of the latter.

 

[Ashtee]

Ere is the other one that has been hobbled, so I won't be surpised if he doesn't play a big part.

Perth -7.5 @ 1.90

Melbourne -4.5 @ 1.85

I see (coach has already hinted) NZ resting guys or at least spreading mins - certainly some key players have battled back-season injury. United's focus likely will be on a strong finals tune up and a win >10 looks more likely IMO.

[Ashtee]

11 hours ago, binomial said:

thanks. hasn't been often this season unfortunately.

going with

perth -7.5 1u

over 168.5 2u

talk gibson and petrie may not play and knight is out for perth i believe. gibson has looked terrible and disinterested most games so the back of him may see a lift from others.

perth will want to tune up for finals versus couldn't care less allstar like intensity, i think more of the latter.

 

Fire Bigade! Please!

[jasmineshrike]

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[binomial]

NZ +4.5  2u

Melbourne v NZ under 166.5 1.5u

NZ to win it $5.50

Not sure why Melbourne are a strong favourite. NZ lost by 1 in Melbourne on the flop and won the other 3, 2 of which were pretty meaningless the other Warrick was out.

If it is a finals grind tempo I think this clearly favours NZ.

Average scores for each team on the season 168 and 166 by my calc, so not much of a stretch for it to go under.

[binomial]

from the look of it wesley was out the game warrick missed so arguably NZ were worse off as for all his highlights warricks defence and rebounding are variable, whereas wesley often looks a bit kooky but gets the job done.

[binomial]

perth v illawarra over 171.5 

matchups are bad for illawarra so they need to play at high tempo to try and avoid them. coach has said as much.if both sides hit a decent percentage should go over with a bit of luck.

[Ashtee]

Good luck!

I could get interested in the under if it keeps creeping up.

[binomial]

bad call on that one. my plan was to play unders through the playoffs but moved away from it.

playing melbourne +6. thought both teams had their patches and wasn't alot in it despite holt and kickett playing very poorly. wit a better start and these two playing better i see them keeping it close.

 

[binomial]

Perth -3.5

under 171.5  2u

Cant see much improvement in illawarra unless lisch comes back ready to go which seems unlikely. would need something like foreman coming out of his three month slump to be competitive. 

[Ashtee]

4 hours ago, binomial said:

bad call on that one. my plan was to play unders through the playoffs but moved away from it.

playing melbourne +6. thought both teams had their patches and wasn't alot in it despite holt and kickett playing very poorly. wit a better start and these two playing better i see them keeping it close.

 

Me too on basis that they must bring more steel. Melbourne @ 3.04 @ +6 @ 1.90

[binomial]

well they were in it for 3 quarters but numerous massive shots by jackson and abercrombie won it.

hard to fathom how jackson's shooting has gone from emabarrassing to sublime in a few weeks. 

[Ashtee]

Illawarra - Perth OVER 169.5 @ 1.90

Obviously Lisch missing but Hawks are a vastly more up-tempo team at home with the fans behind them, while Perth's defence find it tougher away - they have a 6-8 W/L record away, BTW. While I see Perth sweeping this series I think Hawks will run at them today rather than leaving themselves out-muscled at the post again.

 

[Ashtee]

Perth @ 1.51 in game one of the playoff tonight. Should be tougher to beat at home than this IMO. Got set for just half a unit UNDER 164.5 @ 1.90 (current 163.5 is below my cutoff).

[Ashtee]

Game 3: Perth @ 1.42

There was a lot to like about how they lost Game 2 and should proove too tough to beat again, at home.