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NBL 2015/16


Ashtee
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8 hours ago, binomial said:

actually not correct i had illawarra -1.5 so that was 3.5 points.

Virtually the same thing considering the under duress hope for the best three pointer that took it to DOT.

Adelaide -6.5 @ 1.90

Hard to fully trust them but revenge factor at hoome should be enough.

 

Edited by Ashtee
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Agreed! Perth & NZ were just half paced and the new bloke probably needs couple more games to be making a difference ... probably. Melbourne should be short but not that short IMO, which is all I need for the money to go down. Not interested in the cap because it all seems 50/50 whether they win small or big.

Had a bit of a look at the total and felt the under was probably the more likely. :hope

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total didn't deserve to get their after the start but tough to lose due to them fouling when down 14 i think it was, was a bit harsh.

nice call on sydney. regret not seeing it.

going with:

perth -3

over 166

Assuming Prather is good to go, as I think he is pretty much there most important player now.

 

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Today, Illawarra @ 4.00 & +7.5 @ 1.90

Cruised against Sydney Friday, with one eye on this and are looking a really strong unit at present. I'm expecting much better intesity than previously road fixtures.

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Sydney - New Zealand UNDER 171.5 @ 1.92

Seams some trend for higher scores in the short time under Connolly and recent are 9-2 but have played a lot of high teams. More often than not the likes of NZ have kept them low. NZ are 5-11, although 5-7 since Webster, who played all three meetings for 1-2. Sydney needing to perform without Kazzouth and NZ wanting to respond from a loss. I still suspect a defensive game is more likely.

 

 

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A few plays tonight;

Illawarra -3.5 @ 1.90

Can be dangerous taking on Townsville at the spread at home and hopefully Hawks will be up for it off the triumph in NZ. However, I kept coming back to the run-home form & momentum Hawks are in and and look through the depth of their squad to what the likes of Martin, Weeks, etc. bring if they do get in trouble.

NZ @ 1.67

NZ got through on sheer firepower last game, while their intensity possibly is a little off at present. No Starks should prove a factor and I expect Breakers to have too much talent.

Cairns - New Zealand UNDER 169.5 @ 1.93

Rank #5 & #6 and both usually end under in similar company. Cairns are 6-10 despite playing a lot of high teams. The absence of Starks hurts Taipans firepower. This number has gone but I certainly would have taken a couple of points less.

 

 

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Tonight, Perth @ 1.70 & -2.5 @ 1.90

Two Cairns players still face fitness test to be back from injury but, regardless, Perth travel early on better preparation and motivation than last meeting.

Tomorrow, Illawarra +1.0 @ 1.90

Have developed into a serious title contender, so no point jumping off, at the deal. United should be tough at home but still appear to have deficiencies.

 

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Tried Adelaide at odds, 4.50 & +8.5 @ 1.90

Signs they came out of the break with reset focus, winning by ten over United, who showed signs on the night also. Vukona in doubt and Webster hampered by a back complaint during the week. Perhaps they will bounce back to form but they've been scratchy of late regardless of the travel. Trying 36ers at some odds!

New Zealand - Adelaide UNDER 176.5 @ 1.94

Neither go this high too often, particuarly in similar company, although Breakers have been higher (4-5) at home. Had to take the under!

 

Added, Townsville @ 3.20 & +6.5 @ 1.90

Fourth game in eight days for Cairns, while I doubt Townsville won't put up a response to a poor game.

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Hmm, probably Townsville 3.20 was OK to try but not certain I assessed the 6.5 bit too well, given Cairns present form and the fact it wasn't a great shock that Townsville were poor again.

Tonight, Sydney - Illawarra OVER 179.5 @ 1.90

#1 & 2 ranked, who are more likely to have no problem reaching 180. Three meetings this season were 186,186 & 185. 181.5 currently available which I was prepared to take.

 

 

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Tonight;

Melbourne -6.5 @ 1.93

Could find it tougher to win as easy but I think enough is going for them to get the cover. Cairns 1-9 away, although form the last month seems generally better.

Perth - Sydney OVER 160.5 @ 1.90

Obviously current 165.5 is a different consideration. Sydney should be harder defensively but I still feel it will nudge 170.

 

Tomorrow;

Adelaide @ 1.73

Townsville's shortfall of talent is possibly catching up with them. Also, no Djeric and Maynard and Schensher still underdone. Keen to stick with Adelaide to carry enough momentum despite Crocs record of strong bounce-back's.

Townsville - Adelaide UNDER 176.5 @ 1.90

Surprisingly high number for the bottom ranked team playing #3 ranked Adelaide but who aren't over that often. Previous meetings were 154, 201, 142. Current 174.5 is still attractive IMO.

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I think there's no doubt Adelaide are a different team since the break (so far). Childress did seem hampered by something last game - prob injury, if it wasn't sheepishness. Sydney looked to overdo a patient approach in the Perth game, so could be better if they can get it right. I'm not far off taking Adelaide h'cap but staying out for the time being.

Tomorrow;

Townsville - New Zealand UNDER 170 @ 1.95

I think Breakers will want to shut down any chance of a 103 from Crocs again. Maynard back to add depth to Crocs usual defensive pressure, while Webster's potency is missing and looks injured. I was prepared to take 167.5.

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Perth - Cairns OVER 158.5 @ 1.90

Has been backed in from 160.5 and time will tell whether it tumbles again by game time for these two defence focussed teams who actually cover significantly more often than not. H2H: 181@P, 143@C, 132@C but the fact remains that Perth are almost exclusively over at home and Cairns the same away.

 

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Tonight;

Sydney @ 3.11 & +5.5 @ 1.94

Better signs last outing.Townsville could be in theme of 'yet to win two in row' but every chance Sydney are hungrier tonight. Strong chance to sniff out the win at odds!

Townsville - Sydney UNDER 169.5 @ 1.91

Two meetings @Syd 157 & 165 and enough other stats to suggest this has gotten a bit high, despite bottom ranked Crocs higher at home. Connolly talking up, "focusing on defence at practice", which usually would mean we see 200 but they have been a glaringly over free-wheeling team since his arrival and it was obvious in the Perth game they were trying to implement defensive drills.

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It's got me buggered how they were even that close playing with fat zero hustle the entire game.

The second last time up the floor they've attacked the basket ignoring an open three point shooter, that they needed, then Cadee tries the same rubbish when he's brilliant enough to just float it in from anywhere. :@

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Tried Adelaide tonight @ 3.70 & +7 @ 1.92. Penney still out and they should give themselves a big chance. A win would mean they are a more than realistic chance of getting second, having the split over United. Of course, psychology doesn't work like that but it's the same scenario for Hawks.

Tomorrow;

New Zealand - Townsville UNDER 165.5 @ 1.95

Two defence teams who's other meetings were 170 (NRd1), 161(T), 155(T). Crocs are always under away, apart from that Rd1 game and one with #1 Illawarra.

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