binomial Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 actually not correct i had illawarra -1.5 so that was 3.5 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted December 12, 2015 Author Share Posted December 12, 2015 (edited) 8 hours ago, binomial said: actually not correct i had illawarra -1.5 so that was 3.5 points. Virtually the same thing considering the under duress hope for the best three pointer that took it to DOT. Adelaide -6.5 @ 1.90 Hard to fully trust them but revenge factor at hoome should be enough. Edited December 12, 2015 by Ashtee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 Had something straight up Sydney @ 6.50 tonight, given how United continue to unimpress. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binomial Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Played under 175.5. Sydney probably less impressive though. Both Perth and NZ only needed to wake up for about 5 minutes to win comfortably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 Agreed! Perth & NZ were just half paced and the new bloke probably needs couple more games to be making a difference ... probably. Melbourne should be short but not that short IMO, which is all I need for the money to go down. Not interested in the cap because it all seems 50/50 whether they win small or big. Had a bit of a look at the total and felt the under was probably the more likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 Plenty of unimpressiveness in that one and bit unlucky the total couldn't hold out for you in the end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binomial Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 total didn't deserve to get their after the start but tough to lose due to them fouling when down 14 i think it was, was a bit harsh. nice call on sydney. regret not seeing it. going with: perth -3 over 166 Assuming Prather is good to go, as I think he is pretty much there most important player now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 Jumped in on the price drift. Perth @ 1.75 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted December 20, 2015 Author Share Posted December 20, 2015 (edited) Today, Illawarra @ 4.00 & +7.5 @ 1.90 Cruised against Sydney Friday, with one eye on this and are looking a really strong unit at present. I'm expecting much better intesity than previously road fixtures. Edited December 20, 2015 by Ashtee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted December 27, 2015 Author Share Posted December 27, 2015 (edited) Sydney - New Zealand UNDER 171.5 @ 1.92 Seams some trend for higher scores in the short time under Connolly and recent are 9-2 but have played a lot of high teams. More often than not the likes of NZ have kept them low. NZ are 5-11, although 5-7 since Webster, who played all three meetings for 1-2. Sydney needing to perform without Kazzouth and NZ wanting to respond from a loss. I still suspect a defensive game is more likely. Edited December 27, 2015 by Ashtee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 Tonight, Melbourne -4.5 @ 1.90 Jumped in a little soon but United carry forward refound confidence, while Kings look too undermanned. Childress surely will need games under his belt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 A few plays tonight; Illawarra -3.5 @ 1.90 Can be dangerous taking on Townsville at the spread at home and hopefully Hawks will be up for it off the triumph in NZ. However, I kept coming back to the run-home form & momentum Hawks are in and and look through the depth of their squad to what the likes of Martin, Weeks, etc. bring if they do get in trouble. NZ @ 1.67 NZ got through on sheer firepower last game, while their intensity possibly is a little off at present. No Starks should prove a factor and I expect Breakers to have too much talent. Cairns - New Zealand UNDER 169.5 @ 1.93 Rank #5 & #6 and both usually end under in similar company. Cairns are 6-10 despite playing a lot of high teams. The absence of Starks hurts Taipans firepower. This number has gone but I certainly would have taken a couple of points less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted January 2, 2016 Author Share Posted January 2, 2016 Sydney Kings @ 2.09 Drop in grade, at home and extra day break makes for an excellent opportunity to sniff out the win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted January 6, 2016 Author Share Posted January 6, 2016 (edited) Tonight, Perth @ 1.70 & -2.5 @ 1.90 Two Cairns players still face fitness test to be back from injury but, regardless, Perth travel early on better preparation and motivation than last meeting. Tomorrow, Illawarra +1.0 @ 1.90 Have developed into a serious title contender, so no point jumping off, at the deal. United should be tough at home but still appear to have deficiencies. Edited January 6, 2016 by Ashtee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 (edited) Tried Adelaide at odds, 4.50 & +8.5 @ 1.90 Signs they came out of the break with reset focus, winning by ten over United, who showed signs on the night also. Vukona in doubt and Webster hampered by a back complaint during the week. Perhaps they will bounce back to form but they've been scratchy of late regardless of the travel. Trying 36ers at some odds! New Zealand - Adelaide UNDER 176.5 @ 1.94 Neither go this high too often, particuarly in similar company, although Breakers have been higher (4-5) at home. Had to take the under! Added, Townsville @ 3.20 & +6.5 @ 1.90 Fourth game in eight days for Cairns, while I doubt Townsville won't put up a response to a poor game. Edited January 8, 2016 by Ashtee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 Hmm, probably Townsville 3.20 was OK to try but not certain I assessed the 6.5 bit too well, given Cairns present form and the fact it wasn't a great shock that Townsville were poor again. Tonight, Sydney - Illawarra OVER 179.5 @ 1.90 #1 & 2 ranked, who are more likely to have no problem reaching 180. Three meetings this season were 186,186 & 185. 181.5 currently available which I was prepared to take. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 Tonight; Melbourne -6.5 @ 1.93 Could find it tougher to win as easy but I think enough is going for them to get the cover. Cairns 1-9 away, although form the last month seems generally better. Perth - Sydney OVER 160.5 @ 1.90 Obviously current 165.5 is a different consideration. Sydney should be harder defensively but I still feel it will nudge 170. Tomorrow; Adelaide @ 1.73 Townsville's shortfall of talent is possibly catching up with them. Also, no Djeric and Maynard and Schensher still underdone. Keen to stick with Adelaide to carry enough momentum despite Crocs record of strong bounce-back's. Townsville - Adelaide UNDER 176.5 @ 1.90 Surprisingly high number for the bottom ranked team playing #3 ranked Adelaide but who aren't over that often. Previous meetings were 154, 201, 142. Current 174.5 is still attractive IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binomial Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 seems a decent chance of a bounceback for nz and complacency/getting ahead of themselves for hawks, but +2.5 seems to much to resist the way they both teams have been going in recent weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Business end of the season could be enough to keep Hawks on-song. I'm very close to taking them at the plus and close to trying the under but it looks like I'll be staying out, which usually means both get up with ease. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binomial Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 going with adeliade -9.5. they are far from someone to rely upon to cover as a big favourite, but Sydney are 8-14 against a line of -9.5 on the season and appear to have little motivation or ability at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 (edited) I think there's no doubt Adelaide are a different team since the break (so far). Childress did seem hampered by something last game - prob injury, if it wasn't sheepishness. Sydney looked to overdo a patient approach in the Perth game, so could be better if they can get it right. I'm not far off taking Adelaide h'cap but staying out for the time being. Tomorrow; Townsville - New Zealand UNDER 170 @ 1.95 I think Breakers will want to shut down any chance of a 103 from Crocs again. Maynard back to add depth to Crocs usual defensive pressure, while Webster's potency is missing and looks injured. I was prepared to take 167.5. Edited January 20, 2016 by Ashtee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Tonight; Perth @ 1.58 Hawks away from home for a week and of course no Penney, while Knight is ready to go for Perth. I believe it's likely to be a tight game but the fact Wildcats are in the box seat makes the price value IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binomial Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 melbourne +2 hellish heat in adelaide may be a factor with short turnaround. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Melbourne's my definite lean too. Just a tad short of quotes I wanted, so staying out for the time being. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 Perth - Cairns OVER 158.5 @ 1.90 Has been backed in from 160.5 and time will tell whether it tumbles again by game time for these two defence focussed teams who actually cover significantly more often than not. H2H: 181@P, 143@C, 132@C but the fact remains that Perth are almost exclusively over at home and Cairns the same away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 Tonight; Sydney @ 3.11 & +5.5 @ 1.94 Better signs last outing.Townsville could be in theme of 'yet to win two in row' but every chance Sydney are hungrier tonight. Strong chance to sniff out the win at odds! Townsville - Sydney UNDER 169.5 @ 1.91 Two meetings @Syd 157 & 165 and enough other stats to suggest this has gotten a bit high, despite bottom ranked Crocs higher at home. Connolly talking up, "focusing on defence at practice", which usually would mean we see 200 but they have been a glaringly over free-wheeling team since his arrival and it was obvious in the Perth game they were trying to implement defensive drills. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dog&Under Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Only the fucking Kings could lead a game with 90 seconds to play and fail cover a +6 ... between this and the Melbourne United disintegration last round, smfh ... A big f*ck you to Tom Garlep too for the pointless foul to seal the fix Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 It's got me buggered how they were even that close playing with fat zero hustle the entire game. The second last time up the floor they've attacked the basket ignoring an open three point shooter, that they needed, then Cadee tries the same rubbish when he's brilliant enough to just float it in from anywhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Tried Adelaide tonight @ 3.70 & +7 @ 1.92. Penney still out and they should give themselves a big chance. A win would mean they are a more than realistic chance of getting second, having the split over United. Of course, psychology doesn't work like that but it's the same scenario for Hawks. Tomorrow; New Zealand - Townsville UNDER 165.5 @ 1.95 Two defence teams who's other meetings were 170 (NRd1), 161(T), 155(T). Crocs are always under away, apart from that Rd1 game and one with #1 Illawarra. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binomial Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 agree odds in tonight's game don't seem to factor in Penney out. playing adelaide +7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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