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NBL 2015/16


Ashtee
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Pulled a one unit profit out of the first week.

I've taken Illawarra @ 2.00 tonight. Demonstated the talent in a couple of tough road assignments last week, albeit losing both, so will be a lot more comfortable at home. Breakers haven't looked like they deserve to be a 2-1 team as yet and the early market seems based somewhat on reputation.

 

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Read this which sounds pretty definite:

Beveridge will be forced to play without both his starting guards for the second straight match against the Breakers, with both also unlikely for the Hawks’ away battle with the Sydney Kings on Sunday. They may instead make a comeback when Illawarra face Perth at home on October 25.

:)

 

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Sydney -6.5 @ 1.91

Form line doesn't look good for Townsville after the breakers result and they are doing all the travelling. Sydney were super impressive without Childress and 6.5 doesn't seem a lot providing they produce an honest home effort.

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Feel your pain Ashtee. They started off well though blasting out to a 10pt lead but then went downhill lol. was a good try though. I am getting on Melbourne Utd -6.5 in the first game because with the way they are playing at the moment its hard not to back them. i believe they are a team that can go past 6.5 and i expect them to win by like 10-12 maybe even little more. Not only that they are at home also in front of a big crowd tonight so the home fans will be in full voice.

as for the later game, well if i can somehow pass the melbourne utd and get some nice profit there then perth -6.5 definately indeed sounds like a nice bet to have a crack on. :D

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sydney look pretty clueless and the coach seems keen for every player to get minutes with every other player. 

my thinking is that deep rosters are a negative in the 40 minute game. go with 7 players, a feel good veteran and two 15 year olds i say.

 

i have played:

Melbourne -6.5

Melbourne game over 

Perth -6.5

Perth game under 

 

Corey Webster is returning to the breakers which should be enough to make them a contender again. couldn't find anything about when he is available but seems unlikely he will be in perth tonight.

 

GL

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Illawarra @ 2.70 & +4 @ 1.98

Could expect a responce form Sydney despite less rest but this is still an even money game IMO.

Cairns -7.5 @ 1.90

Not interested in taking anything less than this deal but I'd expect a strong response from Taipans, while Townsville are bound to be a little weary from their schedule.

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Cairns could be ok if Tragargh, Worthington and Laughton start playing well but they look pretty terrible at the moment to me.

Yeah, agree. They come up well on paper, looked quite promising in the opening game but haven't impressed overall. Townsville probably fatigued late that may explain some of the bumbles.

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Im at Breakers on -7 :) . I think considering there poor start to the season i think they can cover this. Well looking back at there first home game of the season this year and they won it by like 8 or 9 so i expect New Zealand to get back onto the winners list this evening.

 

As for Melbourne Utd, they are looking scary with only few games in. I did them last game on the handicap which was at 8 or 9 and that got up just. i see on bet365 in which im using they have the line at a whopping -11.5 :O . i presume you guys are confident of melbourne utd being able to do it? i have belief in them with the way they are playing at the moment plus home ground advantage etcc. :)

nice get. i am on them at -6.5.

also melbourne -11 and melbourne game over.

How confident are you with the overs Binomial? :) out of 10?

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Great get guys. was cruisy in the end. tonight we got 2 games. Perth is the late game and they seem to be massive favourites and the spread is at a huge -11.5 - think they can cover it? poor Townsville have not started off well

 

earlier game is an interesting one. adelaide have to back up now with back to back games, sydney at a nice -4.5 on the spread but outright is at 1.47 .

 

look forward to see what you guys are thinking.

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With:

-Jawai and Knight picking up injuries

 - Lisch due back for Illawarra

- i thought i heard Martin not playing 

- Perth have looked great once against Adelaide and terrible twice

 

Illawarra -1 3u  

might hedge some depending on what happens with injuries and prices

obvious risk of perth bounce back, but even with all their players they don't look that potent offensively compared to illawarra

 

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Cairns +7.5 $1.85

Cairns looked better to me last weekend despite losing comfortably in both games. NZ looked burn the eyes hideous, although the potential is clearly there.

Think this is a bit too many until NZ play properly.

 

Townsville v Illawarra over 170.5

Illawarra have lots of offence and no defence. They gave up 100+ to a perth team of modest scoring talent.....

 

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Yeah, Illawara's defence worried me all throughout the Perth game and the bet crashed accordingly. I think they'll toughen up somewhat tonight. Took Illawarra -2.5 @ 1.91 last night.

Both Cairns and NZ have mostly unimpressed me. Breakers were good in Perth, then fell back to a team lacking genuine motivation in the win over Sydney. I'm disapointed now that I didn't take Cairns 3.75 last night, so pondering whether to just stay out at current price.

Tomorrow, Melbourne -4 @ 1.90

Edited by Ashtee
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Perth have still got a few players out dont they? Plus i see alot of people going on Perth on the +3.5 handicap. I am little rattled, unless Melbourne are rotating theres players for this evening? otherwise i cant seem to think Melbourne utd even winning by like just 2. I think they will win by about 6 or 7 around that which makes the -3.5 tempting but Perth is Perth. I think we have been in the same situation betting on a few perth games and they have screwed us over, lol .

Still pondering whether to follow others and get on Perth on the handicap or go the other way and do melbourne utd -3.5 or even 2.5 just incase but everyone feels tonight its going to be very very close.

sort of said that last night with cairns and look what happened to them, got a trouncing lol,

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