October 12 - October 18

[bobix]

Back Ze Zhang (+1.5 sets) to beat Martin Klizan at 1.86 with Pinnacle

For me Klizan was never a consistent player, also lost quite easy to Fognini in first round at Beijing. As mentioned last week I tend to rather bet on underdogs in these Asian tournaments, therefore I'm going to give Zhang a chance here. Why should he not able to steal at least a set? At these odds I'm definitely betting on him.

[four-leaf]

Marin Cilic/Di Wu (under 19.5 games) with Pinnaclesports @ 1.67

I think there's been a mistake made here. Because the chinese took 8 games against Nadal in some awful performance from Nadal this total is being priced like this. Because Nadal dropped serve a few times in his first match in Beijing it does'nt mean Di Wu will be able to break Cilic serve a few times because that is unthinkable. The chinese is most of the time he faces top 100 players losing badly and the matches goes under 19.5 easily and so should this one.

 

[CzechPunter]

Back Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to win WTA Linz for a 2/10 stake at 17.00 with Bet365

Back Andreea Mitu to beat Lucie Safarova for a 4/10 stake at 6.50 with BetVictor

Back Carina Witthoeft to beat Margarita Gasparyan for a 7/10 stake at 1.85 with BetVictor

Fancy Pavlyuchenkova, good price, good draw, and the conditions should suit her. Safarova will play her first match after a long illness, so Mitu is worth a small punt at 6.50 in my opinion. On Monday, Witthoeft looks like a good bet to me, better player than Gasparyan and perhaps the conditions should be in her favour as well.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/wta-linz-betting-lucie-safarova-back-in-action-in-linz-next-week

 

[CzechPunter]

Back Novak Djokovic to win the Shanghai Rolex Masters for a 7/10 stake at 1.91 with Betway

Back Marin Cilic (-5.5) to beat Wu Di for a 7/10 stake at 1.73 with Unibet

Have to echo the sentiments regarding Cilic, Wu Di has a dreadful record in Shanghai and he's never covered this line in three attempts, so perhaps he's going to come crashing down tomorrow as well. As far as the outrights are concerned, I simply have to back Djokovic, who looked very imperious in Beijing and who's been drawn into the easiest quarter of them all as well.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/shanghai-rolex-masters-betting-will-djokovic-win-two-titles-in-two-weeks-

Edited October 11, 2015 by CzechPunter

[Torque]

Marin Cilic (-5.5 games) to beat Di Wu @ 1.757 Pinnacle (4 pts)

I'm climbing on board the Cilic bandwagon, as I agree with the rationale for why the prices are the way they are. Normally, losing narrowly to Nadal and breaking him a few times into the bargain would be a noteworthy achievement for a player like Wu, but such has been the decline of the Spaniard this season that it doesn't mean as much. If the Nadal match had never happened then I think this line could have been one game higher which would have been that much more difficult for Cilic to cover, but as it is he could cover it with a single break in each set of a straight sets win. Given the gulf in class between these two a straight sets win for the Croatian is the least we should see, and as long as that happens then I think this line will come in.

 

Elina Svitolina (-5.5 games) to beat Elena Vesnina @ 2.040 Pinnacle (3 pts)

Initially I was going to give this match a miss as I wasn't sure that Svitolina deserved to be such a strong favourite, but then I looked at Vesnina's form and the reason for the prices became apparent. The Russian is on a horrible run right now which has seen her lose her last four matches, and on top of that she hasn't been able to string two wins together since the French Open so her confidence can't be all that high. At some point her results will likely pick up as she's a good player, but right now she could probably do without facing a top player like Svitolina. I'm not convinced the Ukrainian will win in straight sets as Vesnina could easily play to her potential for a spell, but as long as she's dominant for the majority of the match then I give this line a chance.

[potus]

Marin Cilic (-5.5 games) to beat Di Wu @ 1.757 Pinnacle (4 pts)

I'm climbing on board the Cilic bandwagon, as I agree with the rationale for why the prices are the way they are. Normally, losing narrowly to Nadal and breaking him a few times into the bargain would be a noteworthy achievement for a player like Wu, but such has been the decline of the Spaniard this season that it doesn't mean as much. If the Nadal match had never happened then I think this line could have been one game higher which would have been that much more difficult for Cilic to cover, but as it is he could cover it with a single break in each set of a straight sets win. Given the gulf in class between these two a straight sets win for the Croatian is the least we should see, and as long as that happens then I think this line will come in.

 

Elina Svitolina (-5.5 games) to beat Elena Vesnina @ 2.040 Pinnacle (3 pts)

Initially I was going to give this match a miss as I wasn't sure that Svitolina deserved to be such a strong favourite, but then I looked at Vesnina's form and the reason for the prices became apparent. The Russian is on a horrible run right now which has seen her lose her last four matches, and on top of that she hasn't been able to string two wins together since the French Open so her confidence can't be all that high. At some point her results will likely pick up as she's a good player, but right now she could probably do without facing a top player like Svitolina. I'm not convinced the Ukrainian will win in straight sets as Vesnina could easily play to her potential for a spell, but as long as she's dominant for the majority of the match then I give this line a chance.

Either I'm being really stupid or you are.

How do you cover a 5.5 game line with a single break in each set of a straight sets win? 

[Torque]

Either I'm being really stupid or you are.

How do you cover a 5.5 game line with a single break in each set of a straight sets win? 

Having read back what I wrote it looks as though I made a mistake - although not one which would cause me to change my bet. I think a single break in each set could cover a -4.5 game line at best. I'm glad you flagged it up but I'm not sure about calling me stupid though. Tired maybe, but not stupid.

[bobix]

Back Ze Zhang (+1.5 sets) to beat Martin Klizan at 1.86 with Pinnacle

For me Klizan was never a consistent player, also lost quite easy to Fognini in first round at Beijing. As mentioned last week I tend to rather bet on underdogs in these Asian tournaments, therefore I'm going to give Zhang a chance here. Why should he not able to steal at least a set? At these odds I'm definitely betting on him.

First set like in a women ITF match... break after break. Zhang was in front 4 times (!!), 2 times serving for set.. even two set points in the tie break. RIDICULOUS! After that is was clearly obvious the second set will be a formality for Klizan

[potus]

Having read back what I wrote it looks as though I made a mistake - although not one which would cause me to change my bet. I think a single break in each set could cover a -4.5 game line at best. I'm glad you flagged it up but I'm not sure about calling me stupid though. Tired maybe, but not stupid.

I wasn't saying that you ARE stupid, just that you were BEING stupid in that instance. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

 

I'm really surprised you need to stop and calculate/think about the handicap though. I'm fairly inexperienced at tennis betting, yet I know that a 4.5 game handicap can equate to a single break of serve per set whereas a 5.5 game handicap would always require a set with more than one break of serve (in a best-of-three.) I'd have thought that would be basic knowledge for an experienced tipster like yourself? I'm really baffled.

[vikki37]

Sorry to trouble you all but do you know why that Cilic's match is not available to bet on on bet365?

[potus]

Sorry to trouble you all but do you know why that Cilic's match is not available to bet on on bet365?

Yeah, I'm wondering that as well. I'm hoping it will appear as an in-play betting option once the match starts.

[WinningTipster]

3 PICKS FOR TOMORROW:

SHANGHAI SIMON-4 GAMES TO DEFEAT BASILASHVILI @ 1.571 on pinnaclesports
Basilashvili has good serve and a few good wins lately, but still Simon, who is in a good form is just a level above.

HONG KONG V.WILLIAMS - BEYGELZIMER 2:0 SETS @ 1.34 on betfair (1.32 pinnaclesports)
Following a Serena withdrawal, Venus has an OK chance to qualify for the year-ending tournament. So, she will be motivated and she is a much better player, of course.

CHALLENGER CORRIENTES PELLA TO DEFEAT HERNANDEZ @ 1.22 on pinnaclesports
Pella has such good game for clay, extremely powerful and consistent, a lot of good wins lately in Challengers. Will be playing at home in Argentina, so expect him to be highly motivated.

 

 

[vikki37]

Yeah, I'm wondering that as well. I'm hoping it will appear as an in-play betting option once the match starts.

It is available now. Thanks.

[four-leaf]

Incredible!! Wu breaks Cilic serve twice in the start of the match just because Cilic plays really bad. Nothing special from the chinese at all. Just poor play from Cilic. So frustrating to watch.

[CzechPunter]

You win some, you lose some, that's how it goes, a horrible performance from Cilic though. On a side note, I hope that potus will share his tennis knowledge with us at some point .

[potus]

You win some, you lose some, that's how it goes, a horrible performance from Cilic though. On a side note, I hope that potus will share his tennis knowledge with us at some point .

As I said previously, I'm nowhere near as experienced as many of the posters on here when it comes to tennis betting and wouldn't claim to be. As far as I'm aware, you get paid to offer tennis tips don't you? 

[CzechPunter]

Back Pablo Cuevas to beat Viktor Troicki for a 7/10 stake at 2.10 with Paddy Power

Back Joao Sousa (+3) to beat Fabio Fognini for a 7/10 stake at 1.80 with Betway

Back Tommy Haas to beat Kevin Anderson for a 4/10 stake at 4.50 with Bet365

Bad day on Monday, let's roll on though. I'd rate Cuevas as a better player than Troicki right now, so I'm happy to back him at odds against, especially since the Shanghai conditions don't seem to be incredibly quick. Sousa should also cover the +3 line against Fognini much more often than not, the Italian rarely beats determined players easily - just look at his crazy scorelines from last week. Finally, I think that a small bet on Haas is in order at these odds. Anderson looked tired in Tokyo and the season has already been way too long for him I guess, so chances are that we're going to see a couple of upsets in his matches until the end of the year.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/shanghai-rolex-masters-betting-roger-federer-to-enter-the-fray-on-tuesday

[Nes*]

troicki hunt 15 place on atp, they are friends and this will be friendly believe me 

Edited October 12, 2015 by Nes*

[Torque]

Back Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to win WTA Linz for a 2/10 stake at 17.00 with Bet365

Back Andreea Mitu to beat Lucie Safarova for a 4/10 stake at 6.50 with BetVictor

Back Carina Witthoeft to beat Margarita Gasparyan for a 7/10 stake at 1.85 with BetVictor

Fancy Pavlyuchenkova, good price, good draw, and the conditions should suit her. Safarova will play her first match after a long illness, so Mitu is worth a small punt at 6.50 in my opinion. On Monday, Witthoeft looks like a good bet to me, better player than Gasparyan and perhaps the conditions should be in her favour as well.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/wta-linz-betting-lucie-safarova-back-in-action-in-linz-next-week

 

Followed you on Mitu Czech. Good work.

[CzechPunter]

 

Back Stanislas Wawrinka (-4) to beat Viktor Troicki for a 7/10 stake at 1.85 with Betway

Back Andy Murray (-4.5) to beat Steve Johnson for a 7/10 stake at 1.68 with Unibet

Back Dominic Thiem to beat Feliciano Lopez for a 7/10 stake at 1.85 with BetVictor

Mitu was unfortunately the only highlight, very disappointing otherwise, but not a disaster by any means yet. Three for me tomorrow - Wawrinka and Murray should be able to win comfortably, Troicki and Johnson just don't look all that great at the moment. Meanwhile, Thiem has a 3-0 record against Lopez, so he also looks worth a punt at 1.85 tomorrow, although the Spaniard's record in Shanghai is scaring me a bit.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/shanghai-rolex-masters-betting-federer-out-but-will-other-big-names-follow-

 

[Torque]

Steve Johnson (+1.5 sets) to beat Andy Murray @ 2.940 Pinnacle (3 pts)

Steve Johnson (+5 games) to beat Andy Murray @ 1.813 Pinnacle (4 pts)

Given the circumstances, I feel I have to take Murray on in this one. It's impossible to know what sort of shape his back is in, he could have one eye on the Davis Cup and as much as he's had a long break and so should be refreshed, Federer was in the same situation before he played Ramos and he was sent packing after a lacklustre display. It's certainly fair to say that Johnson hasn't been in the best of form, but beating Seppi in the last round should have given his confidence a boost and a good serving performance here should see the American staying close to Murray. A set might be beyond him, but I'll take a punt at the price as Murray often starts slowly which might give Johnson a chance of taking the first set.

[WinningTipster]

2 PICKS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW:

SHANGHAI MURRAY OVER 13 GAMES VS. ISNER @ 1.73 on pinnaclesports
Murray is in good form but expect it to be a long match with Isner getting the game to at least one tie-break.

CHALLENGER CORRIENTES PELLA TO DEFEAT KICKER @ 1.29 on ladbrokes (1.27@ pinnaclesports)
One more bet on very much in-form Pella who has such a good game for clay.

 

[CzechPunter]

Back Stanislas Wawrinka (-2.5) to beat Marin Cilic for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with Paddy Power

Back Rafael Nadal to beat Milos Raonic for a 7/10 stake at 1.62 with BetVictor

Back Novak Djokovic (-5.5) to beat Feliciano Lopez for a 7/10 stake at 1.66 with Paddy Power

Three favourites for me tomorrow. Wawrinka has a 8-2 record against Cilic and is playing better than him at the moment as well, Nadal is also looking better than Raonic at the moment, and Djokovic just looks unstoppable, crushing just everyone. If he was able to crush Isner's serve last week, he should be able to outplay Lopez easily here as well.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/shanghai-rolex-masters-betting-can-nadal-survive-more-deadly-serves-on-thursday-

[CzechPunter]

Back Rafael Nadal to beat Stanislas Wawrinka for a 7/10 stake at 1.80 with Betway

Back Andy Murray (-2.5) to beat Tomas Berdych for a 7/10 stake at 1.74 with Unibet

Back Novak Djokovic (-5.5) to beat Bernard Tomic for a 7/10 stake at 1.61 with Paddy Power

3/3 today, pretty good. Fancy Nadal once again tomorrow, he looked good against Raonic, while Wawrinka had to play a very long and tiring match against Cilic, even needing a medical timeout at one point. Murray should also be way too strong for Berdych this time around from what I've seen, while I'm also happy to throw in the obligatory bet on Djokovic. Tomic played an epic against Gasquet today, won't have much time to recover, and the Serb is just imperious these days.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/shanghai-rolex-masters-betting-four-exciting-matches-are-on-the-cards-on-friday

[bobix]

Going to be short once more...

Back Bolelli/Fognini to beat Herbert/Mahut at 2.34 with Pinnacle

Fognini and Bolelli are out from the singles, hopefully will take this seriously. Last week they lost in a very close match to Pospisil/Sock who then won the doubles tourney in Beijing. On the other side both Herbert and Mahut posses a good serve, but in all honesty I never rated Herbert as a decent doubles player, albeit they won the US Open and played plenty of matches together. This pick is rather a feeling of mine, I did not take into consideration that the Italians beat their French opponent in Melbourne where they ended up as first time grand slam winners.

Back Lopez/Mirnyi to beat Kubot/Bopanna at 2.20 with Pinnacle

Lopez (finally out from the singles) already played a lot with his Belarusian partner before, who (despite his age) is still an excellent doubles player with a devastating serve. They beat 2nd seeded Tecau/Rojer in the previous round, seem to be in pretty good shape at the moment. Both Kubot and Bopanna are well known in doubles, but they form a new pair, and Kubot is still recovering from an awful period.

[CzechPunter]

Back Rafael Nadal (-3) to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga for a 7/10 stake at 1.85 with Betway

Back Novak Djokovic (-3.5) to beat Andy Murray for a 7/10 stake at 1.66 with Paddy Power

3/3 today again, slightly lucky with Djokovic though. Tomorrow, I fancy both favourites to win fairly cleanly, they've just been better so far than their opponents and the match-ups also seem to be quite favourable. Murray's win over Berdych was so easy only because of a few lucky moment, there wasn't THAT much substance behind it really. Djokovic will be the real test - and I don't think that Murray will pass it with flying colours.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/shanghai-rolex-masters-betting-nadal-faces-tsonga-murray-takes-on-djokovic

[four-leaf]

Two bets from the qualifiers in Stockholm.

Marius Copil to beat Jesse Huta Galung (-1.5 sets) with bet365 @ 1.90

I love Marius big serve. And he loves the conditions in Stockholm. It's one of the ATP tournaments where he does best and he himself has said it's his favourite tournament along with Beijing. Jesse Huta should not get many chances on the romanians serve. Marius always have to qualify to Stockholm. Jesse Huta is ranked 438 currently and Marius still pretty ok at 156 so I find it hard to see where he will get a set in this one. Marius won their only encounter so far at the qualifiers in Dubai last season in straight sets 7-6 7-5. Jesse Huta did'nt win one point in that tie-break.

Nicolas Almagro/Vadim Alekseenko under 16.5 games with bet365 @ 1.61 

Nico have played in Stockholm before so he knows the conditions and this time he has to qualify and I can't see this match being longer then 15 games. Even if Nico has'nt played a lot on hard courts lately I just can't think he will have problems taking this guy out in under 17 games. Vadim is ranked less then 600 and Nico is rising again now up to 74.

[KennyDelight]

Anna-Lena Friedsam to beat Johanna Larsson bet365 @ 2.20

Anna-Lena Friedsam +1.5 sets to beat Johanna Larsson @ 1.45

Surprised to see such longer odds on Friedsam. She has been serving very well this week and is better around the net than Larsson. Larsson was lucky that Brengle had very little plan B and some of the questionable positioning during yesterday went unpunished (some out of place second serve and run to net leaving her exposed in the middle of the court). Brengle's game is about making you play until a mistake but Friedsam will be looking to attack and it will put Larsson under pressure and she isn't the mentally strongest player

Freidsam may have been beaten by Larsson on clay in the head to head record (6-3 7-5... not so emphatic) but overall Freidsam has been more consistent indoors than Larsson throughout their careers. I'm happy to back Friedsam on this one

[four-leaf]

I don't know why Copil was playing so bad today. There is no explanation to it. He was just serving bad and kept hitting the ball into the net several times during the match and at the same time he missed his first serve almost every time he was serving. Jesse Huta was serving pretty ok. Jesse Huta won because he was mutch more focused which showed in the second set where he broke Copils serve easily two times. At least Almagro got the job done playing his usual stuff even though the opposition was not the best.

Edit: Actually Jesse Huta broke Copils serve three times in the second set but droped his own serve once to.

I live in Stockholm so it's easy for me to get to the Stockholm open tournament but it does'nt make it easier to find winning bets.

Edited October 17, 2015 by four-leaf

[CzechPunter]

I don't know why Copil was playing so bad today. There is no explanation to it. He was just serving bad and kept hitting the ball into the net several times during the match and at the same time he missed his first serve almost every time he was serving. Jesse Huta was serving pretty ok. Jesse Huta won because he was mutch more focused which showed in the second set where he broke Copils serve easily two times. At least Almagro got the job done playing his usual stuff even though the opposition was not the best.

Edit: Actually Jesse Huta broke Copils serve three times in the second set but droped his own serve once to.

I live in Stockholm so it's easy for me to get to the Stockholm open tournament but it does'nt make it easier to find winning bets.

Know the feeling mate, sometimes things don't work out as expected.