Euro 2016 Qualifying ~ October 8th - 10th

[Aidymac]

Odds with Bet365

[H1]

England - Estonia over 2.5 goals and 'No' to both teams to score @2.75 

With 1.12 for the home win, I think that 2.75 for the 3-0, 4-0 etc represents value - I do not have any stats to back it but whenever there is a round of Euro qualifiers, I always look at this market for games in which there is a huge gap in quality of the teams involved, and normally you can't get prices as good as that

3-0 (or more) is certainly likely and I'll be having a go at this one

cheers and good luck lads!

[Aidymac]

Germany at 1.53 ??? Cracking price in my opinion.

[Simeon Borisof]

Looking at the stats,i think there is no chance Romania and Finland score more than 1 goal.Bet365 are offering 1.53 for under 2.5 goals which looks like the best bet to me.I have no info about missing players but given that Romania have scored 1 goal in their last 5 games and with Finland being no better,1.53 looks ridiculously high to me.

[Aidymac]

Northern Ireland v Greece 

So, can I back Northern Ireland for the win here? Probably not due to their injury concerns but this match really promises to be low scoring. It is very possible that this match will end 0-0 and that can be backed at 6.50 with Betway. 

 

The bet I really like here is Both Teams To Score "NO" which is best priced 1.57 with Ladbrokes. As already mentioned, the Greeks have failed to score in six of their eight games in this qualifying campaign and I don't see them causing the Northern Irish too many problems, even if they are missing some of their key defenders!

 

On the flip side, Northern Ireland may find it hard to break down Greece with no Kyle Lafferty in their ranks. He has scored seven of their twelve goals in the group so far and without him, they would be nowhere near top spot. Greece are terrible but they do defend very well so I fancy very little goals with the potential of a scrappy 0-0 draw!

 

Back Both Teams To Score "NO" ~ 7 Points @ 1.57 Ladbrokes

 

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[TotoSchillaci]

Germany at 1.53 ??? Cracking price in my opinion.

Because Germany don't have to win at all costs. Their last one is at home to Georgia. Even though Loew has said he is going there to win, they know it's not do or die whereas for Ireland it is.

[Aidymac]

Because Germany don't have to win at all costs. Their last one is at home to Georgia. Even though Loew has said he is going there to win, they know it's not do or die whereas for Ireland it is.

I'm Irish, follow Irish football all my life. Mark my words, Germany are going to win. It's not do or die for Ireland. If Poland beat Scotland we are in a play-off. Coleman, Clark, Wilson, McLean and Whelan missing! Last time they came to Dublin they won 6-1 against a better Irish side. 1.53 is a great price. Of course I want Ireland to get a result, but can't see it. Germany are the world champions, even if they put out their C team they should have enough to win. They aren't going to take their foot off the gas just because they have Georgia at home in the last match. They will want to top the group.

Edited October 6, 2015 by Aidymac

[TotoSchillaci]

I'm Irish, follow Irish football all my life. Mark my words, Germany are going to win. It's not do or die for Ireland. If Poland beat Scotland we are in a play-off. Coleman, Clark, Wilson, McLean and Whelan missing! Last time they came to Dublin they won 6-1 against a better Irish side. 1.53 is a great price. Of course I want Ireland to get a result, but can't see it. Germany are the world champions, even if they put out their C team they should have enough to win. They aren't going to take their foot off the gas just because they have Georgia at home in the last match. They will want to top the group.

OK well Scotland only lost 2-3 to the Germans so why are you very confident that the Poles will beat them in Scotland?

Even if they draw in Ireland, a big win against Georgia (which they can manifest at will ) sees them finish first.

[Aidymac]

I am not confident that they will beat them in Scotland but you said it is a must win game against the Germans when it necessarily isn't. There are no realistic Irish fans that think we can beat Germany. Have you watched us play yet? Poland have the hottest striker on earth at the moment so they have a shout. Ireland are playing for 3rd, nothing else. I personally will be very surprised if we got a result, guess time will tell.

[TotoSchillaci]

That's what I'm afraid of. Poland are basically just Lewa. Scotland almost got a draw from a team full of players of his calibre.

Ireland down on players, nothing to lose, direct British style, big home crowd, Germans will be coming down from the recent derby most of them played in and I don't think a German win is necessarily nailed on. There is a chance.

I do like goals here. Do you think Ireland will play nice and open here?

[Aidymac]

That's what I'm afraid of. Poland are basically just Lewa. Scotland almost got a draw from a team full of players of his calibre.

Ireland down on players, nothing to lose, direct British style, big home crowd, Germans will be coming down from the recent derby most of them played in and I don't think a German win is necessarily nailed on. There is a chance.

I do like goals here. Do you think Ireland will play nice and open here?

I also like goals mate! Shay Given picking it out a few times  I don't buy into the big home crowd thing anymore. The Aviva has no atmosphere, nowhere near the atmosphere Lansdowne Road had, and is a bigger pitch too which will suit the Germans. There is always a chance, I am just very pessimistic about our chances from what I have seen through this campaign.

Edited October 6, 2015 by Aidymac

[Aidymac]

Republic of Ireland v Germany

Ireland have only lost one of their last 17 European Championship Qualifiers, quite an amazing statistic really! That match was in this campaign when they lose 1-0 in Scotland! Ireland generally may not be pretty to watch, but they do make it tough for teams to break them down. They always play with a lot of pride, heart and spirit and they will give it their all on Thursday.

However, they are playing the World Cup Champions! A team that have scored 13 goals in their last three matches in qualifying and although they have also shipped a few goals, they should have enough quality in defence to hold Ireland at bay. The only hope I give Ireland on Thursday is a 0-0 draw which would be a fantastic result for them considering the players missing.

Thomas Muller has scored eight goals in just seven games in qualifying and he should have too much class for the Ireland back line. If Poland beat Scotland on the same night, then Ireland will be guaranteed a play-off but they still have to have a go here on Thursday. If they do, Germany will rip them apart. I think it should be a 2-0 or 3-0 victory to Germany and the both teams not to score is the bet of the night.

 

Back Both Teams To Score "NO" ~ 2 Points @ Evens Paddy Power

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[Aidymac]

Scotland v Poland

This is an extremely tough match to call and it is clear to see why the draw is shorter than it normally would be, top priced 3.25 with Sky Bet. The return leg was a 2-2 draw in Poland and both teams still can qualify if this match ends in a draw. If Scotland lose, they are out though. There are so many permutations here in this group, it is extremely tight. 

I think we should see both side attack this match so both teams to score could be a decent bet at 2.00 with Bet365. However, my main bet of the night is going to be a win bet on Poland to come to Scotland and send them crashing out of the Euro 2016 campaign. Robert Lewandowski is the hottest striker on the planet right now. He has scored an incredible 16 goals in just 9 games for Bayern Munich this season and is also the top scorer in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers.

He is a massive 5/1 to score the first goal with Coral and I couldn't put anyone off having a bet on that. Scotland in my opinion had their chance to stamp their authority on the group against Georgia, but they failed miserably. They put up a gallant display in their 3-2 defeat to Germany at home last time out but they will be under huge pressure now which should play into Poland's hands. This match could go either way, but I think the Poles have what it takes.

 

Back Poland to WIN ~ 2 Points @ 2.80 Betfred

 

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[H1]

That's what I'm afraid of. Poland are basically just Lewa.

This is not a correct statement. There are some quality players in the squad, we have quite a decent coach and the morale is high. Even if Poland lost to Germany a month ago, they gave them a real game. This has been the best Poland team I've seen (and I am 31  ) and I'm sure they will have a go at full 3 points against Scotland. Whether they get a result is a different story, but the team is more than just Lewandowski

[Kiddo112]

This is not a correct statement. There are some quality players in the squad, we have quite a decent coach and the morale is high. Even if Poland lost to Germany a month ago, they gave them a real game. This has been the best Poland team I've seen (and I am 31  ) and I'm sure they will have a go at full 3 points against Scotland. Whether they get a result is a different story, but the team is more than just Lewandowski

Is there not a chance that Poland settle for a point? They totally retreated in the second half in Dublin. It's what is putting me off backing them here 

[Alexc]

I agree with the comments backing Poland. They're the second best team in the group, more than just Lewandowski, and I think they'll get a result in Scotland, who have gone off the boil.

Germany price is about right. They'll probably win, but as has been said, they don't need to. And if the game is still level with thirty minutes to go, I doubt either team will mind a draw.

Quite like Serbia in Albania. We know of the hatred, and Serbia would love to stop them qualifying. As much as Albania are improving, Serbia can put a spanner in the works here. Serbia need to get a good coach in too. You look at that squad, and with someone decent in charge, they'd be a dark horse, imo.

Edited October 6, 2015 by Alexc

[Aidymac]

I agree with the comments backing Poland. They're the second best team in the group, more than just Lewandowski, and I think they'll get a result in Scotland, who have gone off the boil.

Germany price is about right. They'll probably win, but as has been said, they don't need to. And if the game is still level with thirty minutes to go, I doubt either team will mind a draw.

Quite like Serbia in Albania. We know of the hatred, and Serbia would love to stop them qualifying. As much as Albania are improving, Serbia can put a spanner in the works here. Serbia need to get a good coach in too. You look at that squad, and with someone decent in charge, they'd be a dark horse, imo.

The price would be right if Ireland had a full strength team out Alex. But as it stands we are missing Hoolahan, Wilson, Clark, Quinn, Arter, Coleman, Whelan, Christie and McClean... Can barely field a team!

[TotoSchillaci]

I've decided to stick Germany over 1.5 goals @ 1.55 into a double or treble. What do you think of that Aidy, considering all the devastation in the team news is most to Irish defenders and defensive mids?

[Aidymac]

I've decided to stick Germany over 1.5 goals @ 1.55 into a double or treble. What do you think of that Aidy, considering all the devastation in the team news is most to Irish defenders and defensive mids?

I personally think that's a great bet mate. I can see Germany winning to NIL myself, don't see where our goals are going to come from.. It is worth bearing in mind that we have the best defence in the group only conceding 5 goals, but that counts for little tomorrow night I feel as we have such a depleted squad, are playing the world champions and last time they came here they scored 6 times.. I guess the only thing you have to be concerned about it how much Germany want it.. If they play to 70% they should win 2-0 or 3-0.. We will be seeing new faces on the team tomorrow, they have only trained together 2 days, no time to gel, I am frightened! I saw Germany -2 as big as 4/1 a couple of days ago which I think is a very decent bet, but don't know what price it is now.

Edited October 7, 2015 by Aidymac

[Aidymac]

England v Estonia

With Wayne Rooney really struggling for form at present, I personally think he should be dropped for both club and country. There is no doubting what a brilliant player he was and still is, he is just finding things tough at the moment. No player is indispensable and it could be a great chance to give Harry Kane the chance he deserves.

With England already guaranteed to top their group, I don't think they will be bursting a gut here, especially as most of the players know they have a long season ahead in the Premier League and will want to be careful. The main thing for England is to keep possession, plenty of running off the ball, basically treat the match like a good training session.

Estonia on the other hand know that they need to get a result. The fact they really struggle for goals means they know their best chance of a result is a 0-0 draw. So I think the first half may be very tight, England with lots of the ball, Estonia with everyone behind the ball making life tough. If it is a 0-0 draw at half time, which is a big possibility, then I think Estonia +2.5 Asian Handicap is the way to go.

 

Back Estonia +2.5 Asian Handicap ~ 4 Points @ 1.69 Ladbrokes

 

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[Aidymac]

Bosnia-Herzegovina v Wales

These two nations have only ever met each other three times, two of those being draws and the other being a 2-0 victory for Bosnia-Herzegovina. When these teams met in Cardiff in this qualifying campaign, it was a really tight affair with limited opportunities and the match ended in a bore 0-0 draw!

I think it is no coincidence that Wales have been involved in low scoring matches recently, in fact their last five matches in qualifying have resulted in just one of the teams finding the back of the net. Wales have defended extremely well in this campaign yet Bosnia will be eager to make sure they don't concede a goal before half time or else their dreams are over.

For me, this is a match that could be 0-0 after the hour mark and I can then see Bosnia trying hard to get that win they so desperately need. Either way, I certainly can't see a goal fest so both teams not to score looks the best bet of the night.

 

Back Both Teams To Score "NO" ~ 2 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor

 

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[Soi Bongkot]

Romania to beat Finland

Unbeaten and only conceded 1 goal look a good bet to win at home

 

[HastGill1]

Georgia v Gibraltar

Gibraltar will lose this game, doubt if Georgia will score more than 4 though, defensive sides struggle to attack on masse but the Gibraltar defence - especially the goalkeeper - are of poor standard and the worst in this competition. They are decent going forward though and will attack at every opportunity - another reason they have conceded so many goals in this comp, they try to score unlike San Marino and Andorra (away at least) who just sit in and press in their defensive third. Gibraltar have scored against Scotland and Poland away and very nearly against Ireland away too so I don't think it is beyond them to score here, 4.0 looks too good to pass up.

Over 2.5 Goals and BTS - 4.0 - bet365 - 2 Points

Switzerland v San Marino

The banker of the round. No chance at all Switzerland won't score at least 3 with the players they have, San Marino haven't improved much. Only get nervous if they get a set piece in the Switzerland half which will happen probably 3 or 4 times, Switzerland haven't qualified yet so need to win the game.

Over 2.5 Goals and BTS (No) - 1.30 - bet365 - 20 Points

Croatia v Bulgaria

Bulgaria are fairly hopeless, already out of the competition they have rotated the squad quite a lot. 6 of the starters from the last match against Italy haven't been called up (1 is suspended) especially in defence they look light on experience. Popov their best attacking player has been declared fit to play which is a bonus but they have been really struggling to score goals. Croatia have to win this game - simple as that, in a right scrap to qualify. Mandzukic is injured so Kalinic will come in, he has been doing well for Fiorentina so that isn't much of a negative. Modric, Rakitic, Kovacic, Perisic will all start. Probably not worth it at current odds, best to look at it in-play.

Croatia -1.0AH - 1.65 - bet365 - 4 Points

[Alexc]

In case anyone doesn't know, Croatia appointed a new manager, hasn't been in the job three weeks yet.

[Simeon Borisof]

Chochev(Palermo,CM) is out while Milanov(CSKA Moscow,CAM) is doubtful.We cannot go through the group and we can play with pressure off our shoulders but personally can't see that happening.Galabinov(Novara,CF) who i rate to be our best CF denied to play for our national team as long as Petev is in charge.I read that Croatia have their own problems as well but i think they should cover the -1.5 AH on Saturday. given the fact that they need to win in order to qualify.I cannot see us scoring this weekend so it's about how many goals they will score.I think 2:0 is the most likely outcome. 

[KearonC]

 

He is a massive 5/1 to score the first goal with Coral and I couldn't put anyone off having a bet on that.

Thanks the heads up on that price, went with Lewa FGS.

 

[Aidymac]

Gobsmacked! Will never doubt an Irish team again.. 5 Championship players started, nobody gave us a chance. Amazing night! On the other hand, Germany were shocking too.

[danhardy]

"5 Championship players started", you stated the magic formula, maybe more teams should use it.

[Aidymac]

"5 Championship players started", you stated the magic formula, maybe more teams should use it.

Haha maybe you are right Dan! They certainly seem to try harder anyways.

[malabgd]

England v Estonia

England: Wayne Rooney (107/50 f, top scorer), Danny Ings (0/0 f), Robert Green (12/0 g), Leighton Baines (30/1 d), Jack Wilshere (28/2 m), Jordan Henderson (22/0 m), Danny Welbeck (33/14 f, 2nd top scorer), Daniel Sturridge (16/5 f)

Estonia: Sergei Pareiko (64/0 first goalkeeper), Dmitri Kruglov (99/3 d) ,Igor Morozov (29/0 d), Henri Anier (23/6 f), Henrik Ojamaa (23/0 f), Kaimar Saag (46/3 f), Vladimir Voskoboinikov (36/4 f)

 

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