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Rugby World Cup 2015


plloyd88
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Hope you're right about the Nadolo brace as I'm effectively on it at 4/1 from the antepost bet on him to score 3 or more in the tournament!

He can be backed at 13/5 for 2 or more tries and 8/1 for a hat trick with 888. I'd say both are decent and have taken the latter to go with the above bet.

The spread firms have his try minutes in the 60s and if that's anywhere near right I'd say it should be around 5/1 for a hat trick, 6/4 for a brace and 1/3 anytime (which is 8/13 with Hills). If you do fancy his prospects I'd say it's a no-brainer to take the best fixed odds prices and swerve the spreads!

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A few more bets on Fiji players. Nadolo first tryscorer at 6/1 with Hills. Possible to get half a point better but the reason for taking the bet with Hills is their offer to pay out if the player scores 2nd rather than first. In this instance, I think that makes the bet worth taking.

I've also had system bets on Qera at 5/2 with the Tote and Waqaniburoto at 7/2 with Spreadex. 2 players available at prices a full point longer than the spread firms think they should be.

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They could but there seems to be a consensus that the expected rain will keep things a bit closer. The preview above favours Uruguay with the HC start and the RP tips the 21-30 margin at 7/2. If you gave me a free bet on the market I'd take the biggest available even money handicap (+39 last time I looked) but am not getting involved with real money.

As stated above, there's some appealing prices about Nadolo and surely he'll fill his boots if they do rack up the points.

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Fiji vs Uruguay

 

Vereniki Goneva and Nemani Nadalo to score a try in the match 7/4 sky bet

Nemani Nadalo to be Man of the match 7/2 paddy power

 

I think the way Fiji are playing they could score quite a few tries and these two are their best players and also they have been playing well throughout this tournament

Edited by owenclass
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Preview of tomorrows second game between Fiji and Uruguay. Expecting Nadolo to get his first brace of the tournament and Uruguay to stay within the cap, given the type of World Cup it has been and also the dreary conditions forecast for Milton Keynes.

https://www.punterslounge.com/rugby-union-betting-world-cup-preview-fiji-v-uruguay

Shame I can't congratulate you on the Nadolo brace but well done on the cap bet and, particularly, the Ormaechea try. I think I backed him in an earlier game but didn't follow today as I couldn't get on at anywhere near the best available price.

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Preview of tomorrows second game between Fiji and Uruguay. Expecting Nadolo to get his first brace of the tournament and Uruguay to stay within the cap, given the type of World Cup it has been and also the dreary conditions forecast for Milton Keynes.

https://www.punterslounge.com/rugby-union-betting-world-cup-preview-fiji-v-uruguay

Well done. Great call :ok

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New Zealand/Tonga: Naholo and Milner-Skudder both to score a try at 9/4, those 2 and A Smith to score a try at 8/1 and all 3 Smiths to score a try at 16/1, all with Lads, Vainikolo to score a try at 6/1 with BF Sportsbook and Veainu to score a try at 6/1 with Lads

The strongest bets for me, at the prices, are the double on both NZ wingers to score a try and the singles on their Tongan counterparts. Best available odds for Naholo and Milner-Skudder would only pay just over 6/4 if combined as a double so the enhanced 9/4 definitely appeals. The double would be odds on based on the odds implied by the spreads for their player try minutes.

6/1 for each of the Tongan pair is an eye catching standout price that looks generous even against such exalted opposition. Again, the spreads have these two considerably shorter, more like 4/1 shots.

The 2 trebles are also at enhanced odds and look like reasonable interest bets at worst.

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Thats a great enhanced bet Harry, will be taking a look at that myself. Those two wingers are likely to be fighting for one spot so will be eager to impress.

 

Latest preview is up for England v Uruguay.  Fancy new boy Henry Slade in the try scoring market. Also think that an unfamiliar England side will fail to beat the 62 point handicap.

https://www.punterslounge.com/rugby-union-betting-world-cup-preview-england-v-uruguay

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Never underestimate Frnac's ability to mix things up though! ;)

I agree about NZ winning by more than 12 and have backed it at the 11/10 still on offer with Skybet in the winning margin market. Feels like a strong bet at odds against.

Taking into account results so far, performance against the ratings I've been using and results in knockout games over the last 3 World Cups, I'm inclined to back the favourites to win by 1-12 in each of other 3 games. The one where there's some consensus for a potential upset is Argentina to beat Ireland but I think the former's impressive form and the latter's woes are more than reflected in the prices and I still fancy Ireland to edge it.

I'm interested in your more informed view though!

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Looking ahead to this weekends 1/4 finals in the RWC: 

South Africa Vs Wales
Bryan Habana Anytime @ 2/1 , 2+ @ 14/1 , 3+ @ 80/1 - This man is on fire, needs just 1 more try to over take the legend Lomu and can see him doing that against a Wales side which i personally think will struggle. Not really created much for there own wingers but think South Africa have come to form just at the right time. Once this man gets going its hard to stop him! 2 & 3+ just small interest but think @ 2/1 Anytime is very generous! (All prices stated best price with Sky) 

New Zealand Vs France
Julian Savea Anytime @ 6/4, 2+ @13/2, 3+ @33/1 - At Almost a try a game, its very hard not to back this man especially at over evens to score. This game will either be a VERY close affair or New Zealand will win with ease. The kiwi's will for sure have to turn it up a notch or two now we are into the knock-outs. 3 Matches & 5 tries for Savea shows he is here to add to his impressive scoring record. 2+ & 3+ again just small for interest but @ 6/4 Anytime good price (All prices again best priced with Sky) 

Will have a closer look tomorrow night/saturday lunch time for any specials and good value and post them in here.

I also personally think Argentina will be too strong for Ireland @ 7/4 (Will hill & Coral) 

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Looking ahead to this weekends 1/4 finals in the RWC: 

South Africa Vs Wales
Bryan Habana Anytime @ 2/1 , 2+ @ 14/1 , 3+ @ 80/1 - This man is on fire, needs just 1 more try to over take the legend Lomu and can see him doing that against a Wales side which i personally think will struggle. Not really created much for there own wingers but think South Africa have come to form just at the right time. Once this man gets going its hard to stop him! 2 & 3+ just small interest but think @ 2/1 Anytime is very generous! (All prices stated best price with Sky)

I've followed on the anytime and 2+, the latter of which is a particular standout price. I had a second look at the 11/2 for him to score the first SA try but swerved it as he seems to score later on more often than not! If you prefer a spread betting option you could buy his try minutes at 18. The more tries he scores, and the later they come, the more you win, with the max loss 18 times your stake. As a rough rule of thumb I'd equate that bet as being the equivalent to slightly less than 2/1 anytime, about 14/1 for 2+ but more like 110/1 for the hat trick. The beauty of it is that a single late try wins you far more than the fixed odds options. The flip side of that is you end up cursing if he does all his scoring in the first 10 minutes!

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Skybet have 3 "Requestabet" specials up for the SA/Wales game and 2 of them represent abysmal value. Both teams to have a man in the the sin bin is evens, not great when you can get a much better price for 2 or more cards being shown. SA to score a penalty try, Wales to have a yellow card and total points over 30 doesn't make much appeal at 2/1 either. Instinctively, I'd have said 2/1 is too short for the penalty try aspect alone and roughly fair odds for a Wales yellow. 6/1 feels more like the sort of price you'd expect to see at a minimum.

That leaves 5/1 for either kicker to hit the post kicking a penalty/conversion/drop goal and I've had an interest on that. I can't say with any confidence what the true odds would be but, for something that appears very unlikely it seems to happen more than you would be inclined to expect, sometimes more than once in the same game. To modest stakes (the most you're likely to be allowed) it provides a bit of interest every time a kick is being lined up.

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Still looking at the first game, I've bought Davies' try minutes at 8 with SPIN

A bit better than the 4/1 anytime and has averaged 53 in his 4 games so far. Whilst I'm by no means suggesting that would be anywhere near the true price, he's the only Welsh player to have scored in more than one of their games and averages 1 every other start in Pro 12 games for the Scarlets.

I've also bought the South Africa front 5 try minutes at 9 with SPIN

A bet that's served me well at low prices so far, usually for tier 2 nations. Looks a cheap enough buy here when the SA front 5 have contributed 3 tries for an average make up of around 30. (du Plessis and de Jager both scored in their opening game and the latter did so again in their last game.)

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Skybet have put the special of 5/1 for a kick to hit the woodwork up in all 4 games and I've backed it accordingly. It was encouraging to see a penalty hit the post in the live Aviva Prem game tonight!

In New Zealand v France I've backed Coles to score a try and McCaw to score a try, both at 11/2 with 888. Coles tipped convincingly at 9/2 in the RP so even better to get a point longer. McCaw is no more than a 4/1 shot based on the spreads for his try minutes and has decent enough stats for me to back him (as a system selection) at 11/2.

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New Zealand vs France

New Zealand to win 11- 15 points 9/2 paddy power

New Zealand to win by 10 points 20/1 paddy power

Dane Coles first tryscorer for the team 14/1 paddy power

Kieran Read first tryscorer 18/1 paddy power

Jerome Kaino Man of the match 14/1 paddy power

 

Im really looking forward to this match as i think France will make a game of it but i think New Zealand will win it in the end with maybe their forwards scoring the tries with Coles and Read having great chances scoring the first try

Edited by owenclass
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Ireland vs Argentina

 

Argentina to win 3.0 handicap evens paddy power

Ireland to win by 10 points 20/1 paddy power

Cian Healy to be Man of the match 14/1 paddy power

 

This match is going to close so i fancy Argentina to cover their handicap as i feel they are going play the game of their lives but if Ireland play well then i can see them winning by at least ten points and Cian Healy has a great chance of being Man of the match

 

Australia vs Scotland

 

Australia to win by 11-15 points 9/2 paddy power

Australia to win by 10 points 20/1 paddy power

Matt Giteau to be Man of the match 11/1 paddy power

 

I think even with their injuries to two of their best players Australia should still be too strong for them but i dont think they will win easily i think it will be a closer than some people would think just because of the injuries and that their opponents will be up for this game as they have beaten them before a few years ago

Edited by owenclass
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