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Rugby World Cup 2015


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Hey folks! So unfortunately during our swanky new upgrade we seem to have misplaced the threads from the past few months. We are currently working on retrieving them but in the mean time here are the

Thread merged with old one, and other threads imported.

The preview for the New Zealand Georgia game is up. Expecting a big showing from the men in black   https://www.punterslounge.com/rugby-union-betting-world-cup-preview-new-zealand-v-georgia

I'll be betting more on the individual matches than antepost but have a had a quick look based on a rating system I've used previously. That gives the qualifying "straight forecasts" as England/Australia, South Africa/Scotland, New Zealand/Argentina and Ireland/France. No great surprises there. I also found myself unable to resist a small e/w bet on Scotland when they were 250/1 (10 times the price of Wales yet more likely to qualify from the group stages). I also had a second look at backing Romania to edge the battle with Canada to avoid bottom place in group D (I have them as 4 point favourites when they meet). I have England as 33 point favourites for the opening game but wouldn't want to go big on them covering that handicap in a game in the opening round of fixtures (last time around, all 8 games were won by the favourites but by less than the handicap). For an interest, I am backing the 5 and 10 point winning margins suggested by the ratings so am on England by 31-35 at 13/2 and 31-40 at 3/1. Given the recent spectacular form of my tryscorer system (I'm being ironic) I'll no doubt be having a few tryscorer bets and have already started having a look at the opener in that respect.
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A couple of antepost spread bets have caught my eye (brilliant idea to go for relatively volatile bets on a sport I'm a novice at betting on)! [B]Buy total wides at 162 with SPIN (total unsuccessful kicks at goal including drop goals) Buy total pool B tries at 55.5 with Spreadex[/B] If my analysis is right there were 236 "wides" in 2011 and 226 in 2007. On that basis, a buy at 162 seems an obvious play but I'd heavily caveat that by saying it's hard to see SPIN getting their maths that badly wrong (though they famously screwed up their wides quote in a cricket world cup years back, being 700 out). Even allowing for the "too good to be true" factor, 162 feels like a fair buy price at worst. Have seen two separate decent cases made for the prospect of more tries than the markets expect in pool B, one in this thread tipping it for pool with most tries at 7/1 and one tipping >65.5 tries at evens. I'd already noticed how much higher the even money lines were than the spreads. If backing >65.5 at evens is a good bet, buying at 55.5 is a great one. If the more ambitious 7/1 punt is to come anywhere near to landing it's likely that the 65.5 line will have to be covered (two pools have lines in the 70s).
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Taken one of Skybet's "Requestabet" specials, Fiji's Nemani Nadolo to score 3 or more tries throughout the tournament at 4/1. I'm not claiming I can put a precise price on this but given that he's only 9/4 to score a try against England in Fiji's toughest game it feels like a generous price to me. He could land the bet in the games against England, Australia and Wales though you'd want him to start against Uruguay to really feel like you were getting value.
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[QUOTE=harry_rag;n3746562]Tonga v Georgia: 10 points on Gorgodze to score a try at 5/1 with Lads 24.5% edge, also tipped by the RP who think Georgia could land the 9/2 win, let alone stay within the handicap.[/QUOTE] A tryscorer system pick to get things rolling for tomorrow's games. Will also have an interest in the 50/1 for 2 or more with the same firm.
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My ratings (which are still very much at prototype/just for fun stage) make Tonga 6 point favourites for this game which would make Georgia of interest +11 points at evens. Given the way opening fixtures tend to be closer than expected, I'm inclined to knock a third off the raw rating so that makes the bet even more attractive. Given that I don't trust the ratings enough to stake too heavily I've just followed the RP's tip and backed Georgia to win at 11/2 with Skybet (a point longer than the odds advised in the RP).
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And finally for tonight, I've bought Tonga's substitute try minutes at 23 with Spreadex. I have this averaging 38 across their last 10 games including 134 when they beat Georgia 23-9. In that game, their first 2 tries came on 64 and 70 minutes and were scored by a sub. With a close game expected tomorrow and a stronger Georgia line up, I'm taking a chance on Tonga finding it easier to score tries later on via the introduction of fresh legs.
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plloyd88;n3746594 Good preview. Agree with SOB to score anytime @ 15/8. I've had a bet on him to score over 1.5 tries @ 15/2. I can see him causing mayhem. When the pressure is on, or, Ireland are in need of points v a lesser nation (i.e. Scotland ;) in the 6 nations this year) he comes up with the goods and barges over.
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[QUOTE=harry_rag;n3746633]Ireland v Canada: 10 points on O'Brien to score a try at 3.05 on BF (acceptable at 15/8) 29.9% edge and fancied over in the World Cup thread in the Rugby forum.[/QUOTE] Surely the bet has to land with 3 of us liking it! ;) I have Ireland by 49 in this game which would reduce to 33 following the principle of knocking a third off in the opening fixtures but the general consensus seems to be that Ireland can cover the 40ish handicap so maybe this one will run to form. For an interest I'm on the 5 and 10 point winning margins that include my handicap in each of the games so I'll be happy enough if they manage to cover the line.
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Out of time so a very hasty look at SA v Japan has lead to a buy of Goromaru's try minutes at 4 with Spreadex. Double that elsewhere, he scores enough tries for me to fancy him at the equivalent to double figure odds anytime. Ratings say SA by 36, 24 if you knock the third off for opening games. Good luck with any bets, should be back for the later game.
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France v Italy: Buy time of 1st try at 23 with SPIN, buy Tillous-Borde try minutes at 6 with SPIN, buy Picamoles try minutes for 1 point at 13 with Spreadex and 7.8 points on him anytime at net odds of 4.11 First and last are Racing Post tips that appeal (though I've got better odds for Picamoles and split my stake across fixed odds and spreads). Tillous-Borde all my own work, just think he has a slightly better chance of scoring a try than the price implies.
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[QUOTE=harry_rag;n3746747]Samoa v USA: 10 points on Faasavalu to score a try at 8 on BF (13/2 with Spreadex acceptable) Edge of 72.7%, stats not very supportive but with that much edge and two winners yesterday I'm just about persuaded to back him.[/QUOTE] Above system pick plus bought Lam's try minutes at 10 with SPIN. Price edged up a point while I was doing my research but 3 points higher elsewhere. Just think you're getting closer to 4/1 anytime equivalent about someone who should be 3/1 at most. Ratings have Samoa +17 (not that I've been on but, bizarrely, they've thrown up 4 out of 5 handicap winners so far with England just falling 2 short), RP tips >48.5 points. I like the prospect of points and tries but will settle for the interest I have from the buy of total tries in this pool.
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[QUOTE=harry_rag;n3746754]Also had 10 points on Durutalo to score a try at 8/1 with BF Sportsbook Edge of 17.2%, quite appealing on his recent stats.[/QUOTE] System pick for USA. Also tempted by price of 14 for Petri to score a try, 10 with Lads would be marginal. Have bought USA hotshots at 19 (25 points per Wyles, Ngwenya, Manoa or Scully try). I think they're worth at least 22 and have a great chance of scoring at least one try between them which would be enough to cover the spread.
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[QUOTE=harry_rag;n3746775]Wales v Uruguay: 10 points on Tipuric to score a try at 2.33 with 888 Edge of 29.8 %. Not surprisingly, the bookies aren't taking any chances with Wales tryscorer prices but I've decided to go with this one, the only player on either side to be shortlisted by the system. I was going to pass him up based on just 2 tries from 33 caps but they don't play Uruguay in every game and he scored those tries in each of his last 2 outings. The clincher for me was that he's been tipped by the RP at 10/11 so, given the way their tips and they system selections have performed so far, it makes it an obvious call to take him at odds against.[/QUOTE] A system selection to start things off for the next game.
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I don't see Uruguay getting through this game without getting at least one yellow card. Difficult to find any value on the fixed odds front but I've bought bookings at 14 with Spreadex. Need 2 or more yellows (or a red) for that to show a profit but that could well happen and the risk of a total loss is acceptable to me at that price.
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