Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe ''2015''

[richard-westwood]

anything can and probably will happen in this race ....golden horns the best horse and could just overcome the draw like treve did .......treve might do it again and make it three ( somebodies got to do it sooner or later ...so why not ..) ....new bay recorded a decent time last time and prix neil runners do really well in arc so big danger ...  with most bookies goin 4 places ....I think theres a big price place up for grabs .....so anything possible .....fantastic race though compared to the average ...so many possibles to play out . will be interestin to watch what happens ...and good luck whatever camp your in ....

[Trotter]

My thoughts..............

I'm going to oppose Golden Horn because I think this might be a race too far.............that 'jink' in Ireland could be a sign that he was having some problem. Plus the draw

Impossible to rule out Treve

New Bay is the obvious main threat to the hat-trick seeking mare

of the double figure priced ones I can only see Free Eagle as a possible danger on the basis that he was baulked by Golden Horn in Ireland and would a finished a lot closer to him or maybe won with a straight run.

Erupt was thrashed by New Bay in the Niel...............can't see any reason why he would reverse that

Found was 3rd best in Ireland and surely Free Eagle will beat her with a clear run

Eagle Top usually runs well but is a serial non-winner

Flintshire was thrashed by Treve each time they've met.............why any different now ?

Difficult to see any of the others making an impression

My 3 - Treve, New Bay, Free Eagle

I probably won't have a bet as Treve is too short but I really want her to win. If forced to bet with somebody else's money I'd back New Bay to win at 11/2 and Free Eagle EW at 16/1

 

 

[DanV89]

Good luck everyone - should be a fascinating race to watch. I've got Treve in a treble with Esoterique which won yesterday and Limato after the Arc. Also had a little bit each way on Free Eagle and Eagle top. 

[robertob]

Treve bids for a historic third Arc - yes, that's a third one..... on the bounce! But you probably know that already. Anyway; she's going to win? Possibly. The wonder mare is hard to oppose. Her form stands up to all scrutiny. She was utterly impressive in her prep. She has a fair draw. Only in-running trouble can spoil the party. Or the ground? Maybe. It's slightly quicker than ideal for her.

So, what to make of the race? Treve is going to win if all goes to plan. However every horse has only a certain chance by percentage after all and with the favourite over-bet, there is value elsewhere to find.

Tapestry: A super filly. Now four years old, she returned from an almost year long absence last month at the Curragh where she finished an excellent runner-up behind smart Ribbons in the Group 2 Blandford Stakes. She was beaten for speed but fought gamely. She'll be better over the 1m 4f Arc trip.

The Ballydoyle filly was second in last years Irish Oaks but made no mistakes when lowering the colours of supper filly Taghrooda in the Yorkshire Oaks. A long, hard season was telling, though, when she finished down the field in the 2014 Arc.

I expect her to improve big time for her comeback run, which in itself was a strong performance. But fitness wise she'll be better today, and she'll certainty enjoy the sound surface- the good draw is a bonus. Tapestry is a smart, genuine filly, not the likeliest winner, of course, but has plenty of good things on her side, so at 40/1 I have to say she is more likely to outrun her price tag than not.

Erupt: A three year old colt with strong course and distance form; he is the reigning champ of the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris..... and you get 25's? WOW! I guess he was an even bigger price earlier this week, nonetheless, this us huge, considering that this price tag is seemingly based on a poor showing in the Prix Niel.

Okay, he was easily beaten by New Bay that day, but the ground was very soft. It's a different scenario today. The good ground will surely make all the difference to Erupt's performance and with a perfect draw in 4 he's very likely to find himself in an excellent position when the field turns for home.

Once he hits top gear, he can be difficult to peg back. He may not have shown his absolute best yet, either. There is a possibility for him improving, again. That says I'm pretty confident to see him finish at least in the top five.

What else? Well, Golden Horn, of course! The Derby and Irish Champion Stakes winner is an intriguing contender. Personally I'm worried about the draw. He'll have to be extra special to overcome it and to beat Treve.

French Derby winner New Bay is touted to be the biggest danger for Treve. But is he? The fast ground is a clear question mark in my eyes. He has a super draw, though. I do look forward to see whether he can translate his excellent form and talent to this different surface. No excuses being drawn in five, that's for sure. But honestly, I wouldn't bet on it.

Summery: Treve will win. I want to see her doing it. Make history, love. I don't think the ground is too much of an inconvenience. She'll be fine. If she gets a clear passage, she's pulverizing this field. If not, well, then I hope quite selfishly, one of my two fancies can sneak in.

Erupt @ 25/1 Betfred - 5pts Win 
Tapestry @ 40/1 Racebets - 5pts Win

[corky]

1 am hoping treve wins again, i was lucky enough to be on this filly the last 2 years,and i cant leave her now

history in the making?

i hope so

racing needs heroes/heroines 

[arsenalfh]

Although I had Dolniya and Eagle Top backed I was really cheering on Treve the whole way around. It was such a shame she couldn't win a third Arc but I can't really make any excuses for her and there were a few just better on the day. Benoist did a horrible pacemaking job on Shahah which didn't help but I don't think Treve was at her best anyway.

Credit where credit's due though. What a training performance from Gosden to keep Golden Horn at this level for the whole season and we now know he's is a far better horse on quick ground. So credit again to connections for running him in soft ground at York and Leopardstown so people like me could watch a star in the flesh when it would have been much easier to save him for ideal conditions like Coolmore's so called "best ever miler". It's a shame we won't see him next year.

[robertob]

What a brilliant ride by Frankie, wasn't it? He may not be quite as strong as he used to be 15 years ago, but his brain works as well as ever. That was pure genius from the wide draw to avoid any hassle, get right to the top of the field. The fast ground clearly helped Golden Horn to float over the grass and once he kicked on it was always difficult to peg him back under these conditions. Helps if you're the best horse in the race too, I guess.

Jarnet has been slated by some for his ride on Treve, and to an extend you could say he wasn't aware of what was happening there with Frankie and Golden Horn; probably he should have been closer to the pace. Yes - but on the other hand he rode Treve the exactly same way the last two years. She simply didn't produce her stellar turn of foot and looked pretty complicated in the closing stages. Maybe she peaked a couple of weeks to early? 

Some disappointing performances all-round there yesterday, but as arsenal said: credit where credit is due. John Gosden kept Golden Horn fit and well the whole year and the colt is a really, really good one. I just don't like "great" here, "great" there.... let's enjoy an excellent horse. 

[Focus71]

I'm not a regular or big gambler but I had 2 lots of tricasts consisting of Golden Horn, New Bay, Treve and swapped out Golden Horn for Flintshire (surprise it wasn't more heavily tipped).

They say win some lose some, me win some and miss out big time!.