NFL 2015 Picks

[Nagspro]

Hey TenBenny,

Do you factor in anything that your programme does not allow for at any time ? As an example take Dallas v Miami this afternoon. Whilst Dallas have not been playing totally awfully they will be a different proposition with Romo back under centre this week. Historically what is your winning % with your programme also ?? I think 60% is beyond realistic but at the same time I hope you get there. All the best for your picks today !! 

[TenBenny]

Nagspro, I have been playing around with the software for a few years, initially using it only to predict outright winners for an office pool. More recently, I have been applying the software against the spread. As for historical winning %,  so far I have last years results which ended the year at 61%. This season the program is a more modest 52% overall, basically braking even. Combining all games to date the program is probably around 57% ATS. It's a work in progress but it's a promising start.

All teams are ranked every week, so this week Dallas gets a bump up the ranks with Romo coming back; so yes in this case the program has already factored Romo's return. Though I suspect Dallas's problems are more than just the QB, really they have struggled to run the ball without DM Murray at RB; Dez Bryant has been injured and playing hurt for part of the season. So I am skeptical that Romo alone will be able to save their season. That will be a really interesting game to watch this week. Miami gets the edge on home field here.

[Nagspro]

It certainly is a promising start. Even if you stick at 57% that is absolutely spectacular. I look forward to following your picks and best of luck again. 

[clubgowi]

NFL: Buffalo Bills - New England Patriots

The Bills won 22-17 over Jets and have had 11 days to rest and prepare for this, but things do not get any easier and a road trip to Foxborough is always a daunting prospect, the Patriots are involved in a staring contest with the Panthers as the two remaining unbetaen teams, but Carolina showed no signs of blinking last night and now New England will want to follow suit. However, they were taken as close as possible (without losing) by the Giants last week and meet the Bills whilst they are at their strongest and fittest ( see above) and the visitors are looking to build some momentum of their own. Pats will be without wide receiver Julian Edelman, cornerback Justin Coleman and linebacker Jamie Collins, that weakens them and it is easy to see some joy in this for the Bills after the Giants gained 361 through the air last week, with a far less balanced offense than the Bills will bring to the party.

Tom Brady posted record numbers against the Bills in the last meeting (second highest for him, most ever given up by Buffalo) earlier this season, but two things about that, the Bills are stronger now, Edelman caught two of those TD passes and New England still "only" won by eight points and would have been even closer if Sammy Watkins had held onto a pass on the Bills final drive. It will be close to impossible (never say never with Brady !) to gain that sort of yardage tonight and I have to favour Buffalo with the touchdown start.

Buffalo Bills +7 at 1.91 at Sportmarket Pro

 

[Nagspro]

I like the play on Buffalo with the points also. The Bills are looking pretty good at the min and are getting 200+ yards rushing a game on average. New England will miss Edelman as he been the goto guy a lot more this season and the average of 326 through the air for the pats could go down a little tonight. 

I think the under 48.5 might be a little bit of value but it could be very close ! Good luck with your picks !!! 

[clubgowi]

NFL Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys

 I do kind of feel that my hands are tied over the Panthers, we keep betting them, they win comfortably every week and next time out the oddsmakers underestimate them yet again and the cycle starts again. They saw off the Redskins inside two quarters with four first half touchdown passes from Cam Newton who is having the time of his life, he was miked up for the game and just doesn't know the meaning of the word pressure and is simply enjoying himself. The big passes would have made most highlight packages, but the plays where he and the Carolina coaching staff were continually drawing the Redskins offside were no less impressive.

Today they have to travel to play the Cowboys on a short week and for once, Newton probably will not be the most talked about quarterback in this game, with Tony Romo having made his return for Dallas last week, during his two months on the sidelines the Cowboys went 0-7, when Romo plays they are 3-0 and they got straight back on track versus Miami last Sunday in a 24-14 victory. It kind of feels like the entire organisation has been waiting for him to get suited up and the team were clearly boosted by his return, but NFL football is not quite that simple and Romo or not, only two of the Cowboys last ten regular season wins have come against a team with a winning record and they are going to be asked some serious questions today.

Newton will not like the focus being on his counterpart, but will love the huge television audience and the stage is set for another virtuoso performance.

Carolina Panthers + 1 point 1.98 Pinnacle Sports/Vegas Line/Sportmarket Pro.
 

[TenBenny]

Guys here are the picks for Week 12:

Minnesota +2

NY Giants -2.5

Tennessee / Oakland Under 44.5

Atlanta / Minnesota Under 46

Cleveland / Baltimore Over 41

[TenBenny]

Guys here are the picks for Week 13:

Arizona -6

Denver -4

Oakland / Kansas City Over 44

Detroit / Green Bay Under 46.5

Chicago / San Francisco Under 43

[TenBenny]

Wow. Crazy ending in Detroit, amazing last second desperation score by Green Bay. Sending our Under play up in smokes... Wild finish. 

[Nagspro]

Well for me today guys it's:

Miami -3.5

Oakland +2.5

Jacksonville +2.5 

i actually think they all win streight up but I will take the points for the Dogs just in case ! 

[danj2202]

I have a few picks today, finally getting some time to post some selections again, as its late its without reasoning this week but will post proper selections in the coming weeks

 

Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers

4 pts TY Hilton over 80.5 receiving yards 1.91 Stan James

New York Jets "@" New York Giants

3 pts Over 46.5 points 1.91 Skybet

Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills

3 pts Houston texans (+3) to beat Buffalo 1.95 Betfred - missed the 3.5 that was generally out there earlier this week

would have posted KC -2.5 but that line has gone and I dont want it at 3

 

Good luck this week everyone!!! 

[TenBenny]

Guys here are the picks for Week 14:

Cincinnati -3

Houston / New England Over 45

Baltimore / Seattle Over 41

Green Bay / Dallas Under 43.5

Chicago / Washington Under 44

Good luck gents!

[clubgowi]

NFL  Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs have won eight in a row and the Panthers aside, are the hottest team in the NFL right now and they can put huge pressure on the Broncos who play Cincinnati tomorrow, in the race for the AFC West division. That sequence of wins has come by an average of 17.5 points and includes wins over two of the Brown's divisional rivals who are both stronger defensively than Cleveland and to be honest, in all areas of the game. They also posted wins over two teams with 9+ victories to their name and all eight had a better win record than Cleveland. Therefore, it is very difficult to see beyond the home win and this is all about the handicap, as already discussed the Chiefs have been averaging a touchdown more and this is probably the easiest game on paper and one of the most important. Browns have lost their last five starts against teams with a winning record by 34-17-21-21-14 points and the Chiefs have the balanced offense to put up very similar numbers. The visitors are without key outside linebacker Armonty Bryant who did not travel after being arrested on Christmas morning , they have doubts also about offensive linemen Cameron Erving , Alex Mack , Joe Thomas , running back Duke Johnson and receiver Marlon Moore who are all questionable (50% chance of playing). Chiefs by two TD's +.

Kansas City Chiefs -10.5 points 1.91 Pinnacle Sports /Vegas Line/Sportmarket Pro

 

[clubgowi]

NFL Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins

I have not been overly complementary about these two teams this season, but I must admit to being impressed with how the Redskins looked to keep their momentum up last week, when they could have just "rolled over" with nothing to play for at Dallas  and they come into the post season in their best form of the season and in relatively good shape injury wise. Their pass rushers could have a bit of field day against what is now a porous line protecting Aaron Rodgers, with the superstar quarterback being sacked 47 times, as opposed to the Redskins giving up just 27. Green Bay have lost 6 of 10 starts since their bye week, have given up an average of just shy of 30 points in their four games in that sequence against teams with a winning record and lost two of the others. They have never looked in danger of beating a "good team" , apart from the Vikings ( who comprehensively avenged that defeat last weekend) since Week 3 and confidence is shot and in stark contrast to the team from the capital.

This is priced as more of less a "pick" and I feel the Redskins should be asked to give up 3 points, maybe a even a shade more.

Washington Redskins -1 point 2.02 Pinnacles sports/Vegas Line/Sportmarket Pro
 

[clubgowi]

NFL: Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots

Most of us know about the dangers of playing in Foxborough in January and of ever underestimating Tom Brady , Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots , but right now the Pats look as vulnerable as at any time this season and getting the Chiefs, who are looking for a 12th straight win, with more than a field goal start, seems too good to let pass.

The Patriots have more than a third of their roster listed on the injury report and whilst we have spoken about that in terms of mis-information already this season, several key players are genuinely carrying knocks, including their two main receivers and missing practice, when timing is so important for these guys is very far from ideal. New England have not won in a month and since Week 10, they have beaten the Giants by 1 (game they should have lost), Buffalo by 7, lost to Denver and at home to the Eagles (who missed out on the post season), they did then beat the Texans ( whom Kansas thrashed 30-0 last week) and the 3-13 Titans (who did not want to win !) and then lost to the Jets and Dolphins. It doesn't read that well ! They have a make- do offensive line, which might not be fair to "make-do" and the Chiefs seem sure to get to Brady and whist he rarely throws interceptions, he can certainly be harried, my thinking is that is that if this exact situation featured anyone other than Brady, Chiefs would be favourites .

KC have won their last 11 games, including on the road to Denver and to the Texans last week and comparable form, favours the visitors.

Kansas City +4 points 2.03 Pinnacle/Vegas /Sportmarket Pro and I have also played the straight ML win on Kansas @ 3.0 + Betfair/Sportmarket Pro

 

[danj2202]

I m going to respectfully disagree with clubgowi with regards to the Pats game.

 

the Divisional round of the NFL playoffs is littered with blowout wins by the home teams down the years and I suspect, on Saturday anyway that we could see some of the same

 

6 pts New England -4.5 to beat Kansas City 1.91 Coral

5 pts Under 44 total points

3 pts Kansas City Under 19.5 total points 2.00 Paddy Power

This game has all the looks of a defensive matchup, The Pats are fully healthy and ready to go on that side of the ball and arguably are the most underrated defense left in the playoffs, masterminded by Bill Bellichick. In the era of Bellichick the Patriots have specialised in removing what the other offense is good at. It cannot be emphasised how important Jeremy Maclin and the deep route is for the Chiefs to create space underneath, he is extremely doubtful to feature in this game and will certainly not be at his full capabilities if he does suit up. That really leaves the Tight End Travis Kelce for the Chiefs as the main threat and the Pats linebackers are amongst the best in the NFL at covering this position and I am convinced they will take Kelce out of the game and force the Chiefs to win some other way, now that could be with the running backs Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware.

The Chiefs have won 11 straight games after beginning the year 1-5. The improvement in their performance came with their defense, specifically the pass rush improving and in increase in the yards per passing attempt of Alex Smith the Chiefs QB at the mid point of the year, his average was up by almost a yard per pass the second half of the season, when they were losing at the early point of the season all the passes were underneath the defense and there was nothing to keep them honest with a deep threat. I cannot see how the Chiefs move the ball with a hampered or absent Maclin.

The Pats offense is returning to some kind of health, the offensive line is a work in progress still, but the top 3 receiving options in Gronkowski, Edelman and Amendola are all available tonight and Steven Jackson will likely carry the load at running back. Whatever they get from Jackson will be a bonus as injuries and decline have hit the Pats this year, they certainly miss Dion Lewis and the receiving threat out the backfield but Jackson, experienced and signed prior to week 17 cannot be any worse than Legarrette Blount has been this season and arguably comes in fresh without a seasons beating on his body.

Despite the injuries, the Patriots have been held under 27 points just 4 times all season. They know how to put points on the scoreboard and I really do struggle to see them losing at home to a Chiefs team that destroyed the Texans last week. A Texans team who were only in the playoffs by virtue of playing in the weakest division in the NFL. The champions at Foxborough in inclement weather in January will be a whole different proposition for these Chiefs, and for me the Pats have the edge in every phase of the game and on the sideline. Do you want to take Andy Reid over Bill Bellichick in the playoffs?

 

8 pts Arizona Cardinals -7 to beat Green Bay Packers 1.91 Skybet

Continuing with the theme of a blowout. The Cardinals are arguably the best team in the NFC discounting the performance that wasnt in a largely irrelevant home finale with the Seahawks. Green Bay come in fresh off a victory in Washington last week where they looked like they had finally found the groove again on offense.

This for me again is a whole different ballgame, the Cardinals defense is a vastly superior unit to the Redskins and the Cardinals gave Rodgers fits when they whipped the Packers like a mule 38-8 just 3 weeks ago. There was a lot on the line for both teams that day and more so tonight. The Cardinals would appear to have the edge at running back as David Johnson, the rookie has been dynamic since coming in for the injured Chris Johnson, Eddie Lacy and James Starks have both had ample opportunities to grab the job for the Packers and Lacy cant seem to run through a hole, Starks on the other hand can get through the hole, he just forgets to take the ball with him too often. The Cardinals allowed just 3.9 yards per carry rushing this season and I cant see this as viable for Green Bay.

As for the receivers, wow do the Packers miss Jordy Nelson, the rest of this group led by Randall Cobb and Davante Adams (cant catch) have consistently failed to get open all year long and while the Cardinals are down Tyrann Matthieu in the secondary, plenty worse defensive units (Arizona ranked 6th in the NFL against the pass) have held the Packers receivers in check. 

Carson Palmer has options with Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown that have all performed well this year, Brown and Fitzgerald both eclipsing the 1000 yard mark. I am struggling to see past a repeat of the matchup 3 weeks ago where the Cardinals looked like they could beat the Pack by as little or as many as they wanted.

 

Tomorrow is a little more difficult that today but these plays look quite clear to me

 

Good luck if you are playing today

[danj2202]

Ok, Superbowl 50 is upon us and in honour of our last game for the next 7 months I will put some selections up

 

3 pts Carolina Panthers to beat Denver Broncos by 19-24 pts 11.00 Ladbrokes

This game is going to go one of two ways, either the Panthers will blow the Broncos away or the Broncos defense will turn up and keep it close and they will cover the handicap, maybe even win the game. Based on the price differential and the fact that the two defenses that the Panthers destroyed in the first half of their playoff games to get here (Seattle and Arizona) are good defenses, I am willing to take a chance that the Panthers get up big and I dont think Peyton manning has the arm to mount a Seahawks style comeback and this could end up in similar fashion to the Cardinals in the NFC Championship for Carolina. It feels a lot like the Denver and Seattle blowout of a couple seasons ago

20 pts Owen Daniels (Denver TE) Under 2.5 receptions 2.10 William Hill

This is my headline selection, simply put, Owen Daniels has exceeded this number twice in 7 games,, he is up against a Carolina defense that is the best in the league defending the Tight End position and the ball has only actually been thrown in Daniels direction on three occasions in each of the Broncos playoff games. Suffice to say he is not a central part of the offense and if this one loses i likely have a bad day

2 pts Ted Ginn to be MVP of Superbowl 50 51.00 Paddy Power

4 pts Ted Ginn to have most receiving yards in Superbowl 50 13.00 William Hill

Ted Ginn is where I see the value away from the Quarterbacks in the MVP market. Lets make no mistake the QBs usually win this award and Cam Newton is the likeliest winner should the Panthers triumph, however Ginn returns kicks for the Panthers and is very much a deep threat receiver and has 4 games with multiple touchdowns this year and at least 80 receiving yards on 3 of those occasions. A line of 130 receiving yards and 2 TDS or a long kick return TD with 100yds receiving and a TD could make this value. When QBs dont win it is usually a wide receiver. 8 QBS 3 WRs and 1 LB in the past 12 years have won the award. 

1 pts Kawann Short to be MVP of Superbowl 50 201.00 Paddy Power

If it is a low scoring game and the defense dominates, Kawann Short will be rushing the passer for Carolina and the Denver offensive ine is a weakness, if it is low scoring enough for offense to be doubtful for MVP then a 3 or 4 sack game could put SHort in the conversation at a massive price and in honest is far from out of the question that he could hit that kind of sack number

4 pts 1st penalty of the game to be Offensive Holding 5.00 Betvictor

As with the above, both these teams rush the passer well which could cause the lineman on each team to take a flag. If we get through the opening kickoff without a penalty then I feel this one has every chance. False start is the favourite but with no discernible home field advantage in the Superbowl this should be less likely to happen than a normal game

 

best of luck anyone playing today and enjoy the game

[Nagspro]

Some interesting selections there. I don't know that I would be betting that the league leading defence will ship 19 - 24 points more. Carolina concede more points 31.0 ish per game on average compared to 22.5 ish for Denver. 

I would expect even allowing for the less than explosive Denver offence they could still score 17 - 21 themselves. Defence wins championships ! It's gonna be a close one 

Best of luck