TenBenny Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Guys here are the NFL picks for week 3:Arizona -6.5Green Bay -6.5Pittsburgh -1.5NY Jets -2Denver -3Cincinnati +2.5St. Louis/Pittsburgh Over 47.5Dallas/Atlanta Over 45NY Giants/Washington Over 44 (W)Carolina/New Orleans Over 43Miami/Buffalo Under 43NY Jets/Philadelphia Under 46Good luck gents! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danshot Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 (edited) Nice predictions 8 of 11 correct assume they were the even money lines ? , any chance of some reasoning with Week 4 picks ? TenBenny's Weekly Spread Picks Outcomes (upto Week 6 updated)Week 3 : 8 of 11 Week 4 : 4 of 10Week 5 : 4 of 11 with 1 pushWeek 6 : 2 of 5 Week 7 : 6 of 9Week 8 : 4 of 8Overall : 28 of 54 with 1 push Profit/Loss (assuming get 1.91) : + 0.48 DanShot's NFL Tip of the Week Week 6 with a push for Detroit Lions to cover lineWeek 7 win with Carolina Panthers to cover lineOverall : 1 of 2 with 1 Push Profit/Loss + 0.91 Edited November 2, 2015 by Danshot Updated Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potus Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Nice predictions 8 of 11 correct assume they were the even money lines ? , any chance of some reasoning with Week 4 picks ?I think with results like that we don't need to worry about the reasoning for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TenBenny Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Guys, here is one pick for the early game NFL week 4:Baltimore/Pittsburgh Over 44 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TenBenny Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Danshot, yes those were the even lines available at the time I posted the picks. The picks come from various algorithms I have developed over the years (I am a software engineer by trade). Unfortunately, there is no additional reasoning, or insight I can provide, the program just outputs the games that have the best chance of covering. I have had pretty good success for the last couple years and I think a success rate around 60% is possible for the season.We start this week with a loss coming up a point short on the early game. I'll be posting the remaining week 4 games when I have some free time later today. Stay tuned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TenBenny Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Guys here are the rest of the picks for NFL week 4:Arizona -7Atlanta -6Buffalo -5.5Carolina -3Denver -6.5Buffalo / NY Giants Over 46Cincinnati / Kansas City Over 45NY Jets/ Miami Under 42Tampa / Carolina Under 40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danshot Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 (edited) Be interesting to see how this season plays out , what is the main element of your equation that you think helps give you an edge? am I right in assuming you get 1.9 on these lines ?Hope you don;t mind be posting the results of your predictions (if you do I'll take them down) Edited October 19, 2015 by Danshot Updated Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TenBenny Posted October 5, 2015 Author Share Posted October 5, 2015 No problem, you are welcome to post the results for everyone to follow. I think you missed one game in the week 2 summary, I have the following:Baltimore/Pittsburgh Over 44 (L)Arizona -7 (L)Atlanta -6 (W)Buffalo -5.5 (L)Carolina -3 (W)Denver -6.5 (L)Buffalo / NY Giants Over 46 (L)Cincinnati / Kansas City Over 45 (W)NY Jets/ Miami Under 42 (W)Tampa / Carolina Under 40 (L)Week 2: 4 of 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TenBenny Posted October 5, 2015 Author Share Posted October 5, 2015 The algorithm uses a combination of team strength, weekly match-up, and home field advantage to come up with a composite ranking. The higher ranked teams in theory are more likely to win, and also cover the spread. Of course that leads to mostly favorites and a few dogs selected each week. The Over/Under plays are similarly based on team offense and defensive rankings; a composite score for each match-up is used to determine which games have a higher scoring potential - those are selected as Overs, and conversely the games with the lowest scoring potential are selected as Under. I then rule out any games where the lines are too large, since in my experience the probably of covering goes down as the lines get bigger. That's the basic idea in an nutshell, to let the machine pick the best games and attempt to reduce human/emotional errors. I am still tinkering and making improvements over time but the basic ideas are described here.You are correct about the lines posted, they pay 1.9 (110 to win 100). Aidymac 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TenBenny Posted October 10, 2015 Author Share Posted October 10, 2015 Guys here are the picks for NFL week 5:Arizona -2.5Denver -4.5NY Giants -7Cincinnati -3St. Louis +9Atlanta / Washington Over 48NY Giants / San Fran Over 43Kansas City / Chicago Over 45Denver / Oakland Over 43.5Detroit / Arizona Under 45Green Bay / St. Louis Under 46 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TenBenny Posted October 15, 2015 Author Share Posted October 15, 2015 Guys here are the picks for NFL week 6:Atlanta -3.5Denver -4Arizona -3Cincinnati -3.5Jacksonville / Houston Over 43 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danshot Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Do you back all these selections yourself ? Unlucky with the 1st Game but a prime example of how tough it is to win on the road in the NFL even against a less than stellar Saints unit.Hopefully Bronco's show that the better team can cover away from home tomorrow , I fancy them to beat that line. Bengals another away selection this is a no touch for me especially if as I suspect Taylor does play. Jags vs Houston I like the under the Jags have a very disappointing Offense - Line Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danshot Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 My spread bet of Week 6 Lions -3 , the Bears have a better record so far but I firmly belief Detroit have a stronger team and will pick up a much needed win against a team that also wont see the post season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danshot Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 so the MY 1st Tip of the NFL Season here is a push Lions need Overtime to get the win TenBunny got 2 of 5 this week ,he was right on the Over for the Jags/Texans game as the Texans went on a rampage against a lacklustre Jags Defense. Bronco's won but needed OT and didn't cover , Bengals won comfortable as you would expect against the Bill's miss Taylor who unfortunately didn't play in end. Arizona couldn't get the W vs Steelers on the road. Elsewhere Dolphins showed Play-Off credentials against taking them back to 3-3 after 3 game losing streak , Redskins continue to lack any finishing quality and RG3 has to be wondering what has happened given the mistakes the Cousins is making look to back their opponents in the upcoming weeks until see other evidence Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TenBenny Posted October 22, 2015 Author Share Posted October 22, 2015 Guys here are the picks for NFL week 7:Atlanta -4.5Pittsburgh -2.5Indianapolis - 4.5Carolina -3NY Giants -3.5NY Jets +9Dallas / NY Giants Over 45Texans / Dolphins Over 44.5Eagles / Panthers Under 46 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TenBenny Posted October 22, 2015 Author Share Posted October 22, 2015 Danshot, yes I play the picks I post here. The system has been profitable in the past and usually ends up turning a profit by season's end.I agree with your insights, the Dolphins look like a new team. What a difference a coach makes, we'll see if it was just a fluke.Tough loss for the Falcons against a sewage team like NO. But the Saints always play up at the Dome in night games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danshot Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 One pick immediately stands out for me there as a great price that I will probably get on myself Carolina Panthers at home have to be a favourite the cover this line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steaks and stakes Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Ten Benny that's way too many picks per nfl round. Lunacy. Your record speaks for itself and with that high a volume will only deteriorate further. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danshot Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Ten Benny that's way too many picks per nfl round. Lunacy. Your record speaks for itself and with that high a volume will only deteriorate further.I disagree Steaks & Stakes , he is betting on the spread line and before this week was break even minus the juice the bookies take , this week may be a bad week by looks it so far but it seems to have some merit compared to other systems have witnessed on this site. And I think we should encourage the involvement in the forum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danshot Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Actually turned out to be a pretty good week for TwoBenny's predictions and the line I most liked the Panthers line rolled in pretty comfortably m so this thread is doing just fine , hope you keep posting your predictions. I forgot to post my tip of the week but didn't see anything better than the Panthers line that I already mentioned. Atlanta -4.5Pittsburgh -2.5Indianapolis - 4.5Carolina -3NY Giants -3.5NY Jets +9Dallas / NY Giants Over 45Texans / Dolphins Over 44.5Eagles / Panthers Under 46 So 6-3 on the right side this side Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TenBenny Posted October 29, 2015 Author Share Posted October 29, 2015 Well, just back from vacation in time for Week 8. That was a nice turn around indeed last week after the early games to turn a nice profit. Carolina continues to defy the Odds makers, nice pick Danshot.Other observations, the Dolphins appear to be a different team since the coaching change, 2 weeks now with convincing victories and a big test coming up a against the Pats.Stay tuned for Week 8 picks coming up shortly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TenBenny Posted October 29, 2015 Author Share Posted October 29, 2015 Steaks&Stakes - I know it seems like a large volume of picks but I actually pulled one game because I didn't like the line which turned out to be Seattle (covered). In my experience it's better to stick with the system, so long as you manage your bankroll and don't go overboard on your bets. We have another full card for Week 8 coming up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TenBenny Posted October 29, 2015 Author Share Posted October 29, 2015 Guys here are the picks for Week 8:Arizona -5Atlanta -7NY Jets -2.5Minnesota +1Cincinnati +1Miami +8Denver / Green Bay Under 45.5Kansas City / Detroit Under 45.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danshot Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Unfortunately didn't have time to check out the lines this week , will make sure do in time for next week. Looks to be a slight loss this week on Benny's lines but Arizona cover the line again , surprised Tampa Bay beat Atlanta on the road that one has to be an anomaly , with Raiders currently beating Jets need a low scoring affair in Denver to leave this week as 4-4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steaks and stakes Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 pretty damn obvious you are tenbenny. That many plays in the one round no wonder you havn't won shit this nfl season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TenBenny Posted November 5, 2015 Author Share Posted November 5, 2015 Steaks, I actually agree with you last week. I should have pulled the Miami game, on the road on a short week playing against NE was too much to overcome even spotting them the 8 points. Those are the types of things the computer doesn't factor.Guys here is the first pick on the early game Week 9:Cleveland / Cincinnati Over 45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TenBenny Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 Guys here are the rest of the picks for Week 9:Denver -5Green Bay -2.5St. Louis +2Philadelphia -2.5Green Bay / Carolina Under 46 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TenBenny Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 Here is the early pick for Week 10:NY Jets -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TenBenny Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 Here are the rest of the picks for Week 10:Pittsburgh -5.5Arizona +3Cleveland / Pittsburgh Over 41.5Kansas City / Denver Under 45Green Bay / Detroit Under 48.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TenBenny Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Guys here are the picks for Week 11: Miami PK Denver -1 Oakland -1 Kansas City / Baltimore Over 44.5 Minnesota / Green Bay Under 44.5 Washington / Carolina Under 45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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