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NFL 2015 Picks


TenBenny
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Guys here are the NFL picks for week 3:


Arizona -6.5
Green Bay -6.5
Pittsburgh -1.5
NY Jets -2
Denver -3
Cincinnati +2.5
St. Louis/Pittsburgh Over 47.5
Dallas/Atlanta Over 45
NY Giants/Washington Over 44 (W)
Carolina/New Orleans Over 43
Miami/Buffalo Under 43
NY Jets/Philadelphia Under 46

Good luck gents!

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Nice predictions 8 of 11 correct assume they were the even money lines ? , any chance of some reasoning with Week 4 picks ?

 

TenBenny's Weekly Spread Picks Outcomes (upto Week 6 updated)

Week 3 : 8 of 11 

Week 4 : 4 of 10

Week 5 : 4 of 11 with 1 push

Week 6 : 2 of 5 

Week 7 : 6 of 9

Week 8 : 4 of 8

Overall : 28 of 54 with 1 push      Profit/Loss (assuming get 1.91) : + 0.48 

 

DanShot's NFL Tip of the Week 

Week 6 with a push for Detroit Lions to cover line

Week 7 win with Carolina Panthers to cover line

Overall : 1 of 2 with 1 Push              Profit/Loss   + 0.91

Edited by Danshot
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Danshot, yes those were the even lines available at the time I posted the picks. The picks come from various algorithms I have developed over the years (I am a software engineer by trade). Unfortunately, there is no additional reasoning, or insight I can provide, the program just outputs the games that have the best chance of covering. I have had pretty good success for the last couple years and I think a success rate around 60% is possible for the season.

We start this week with a loss coming up a point short on the early gameI'll be posting the remaining week 4 games when I have some free time later today. Stay tuned.

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Be interesting to see how this season  plays out , what is the main element of your equation that you think helps give you an edge? am I right in assuming you get 1.9 on these lines ?

Hope you don;t mind be posting the results of your predictions (if you do I'll take them down) 

 

Edited by Danshot
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No problem, you are welcome to post the results for everyone to follow. I think you missed one game in the week 2 summary, I have the following:

Baltimore/Pittsburgh Over 44 (L)

Arizona -7 (L)

Atlanta -6 (W)

Buffalo -5.5 (L)

Carolina -3 (W)

Denver -6.5 (L)

Buffalo / NY Giants Over 46 (L)

Cincinnati / Kansas City Over 45 (W)

NY Jets/ Miami Under 42 (W)

Tampa / Carolina Under 40 (L)

Week 2: 4 of 10

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The algorithm uses a combination of team strength, weekly match-up, and home field advantage to come up with a composite ranking. The higher ranked teams in theory are more likely to win, and also cover the spread. Of course that leads to mostly favorites and a few dogs selected each week. The Over/Under plays are similarly based on team offense and defensive rankings; a composite score for each match-up is used to determine which games have a higher scoring potential - those are selected as Overs, and conversely the games with the lowest scoring potential are selected as Under. I then rule out any games where the lines are too large, since in my experience the probably of covering goes down as the lines get bigger. That's the basic idea in an nutshell, to let the machine pick the best games and attempt to reduce human/emotional errors. I am still tinkering and making improvements over time but the basic ideas are described here.

You are correct about the lines posted, they pay 1.9 (110 to win 100). 

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Guys here are the picks for NFL week 5:

Arizona -2.5

Denver -4.5

NY Giants -7

Cincinnati -3

St. Louis +9

Atlanta / Washington Over 48

NY Giants / San Fran Over 43

Kansas City / Chicago Over 45

Denver / Oakland Over 43.5

Detroit / Arizona Under 45

Green Bay / St. Louis Under 46

 

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Do you back all these selections yourself ? 

Unlucky with the 1st Game but a prime example of how tough it is to win on the road in the NFL even against a less than stellar Saints unit.

Hopefully Bronco's show that the better team can cover away from home tomorrow , I fancy them to beat that line. 

Bengals another away selection this is a no touch for me especially if as I suspect Taylor does play. 

Jags vs Houston I like the under the Jags have a very disappointing Offense - Line 

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so the MY 1st Tip of the NFL Season here is a push Lions need Overtime to get the win 

TenBunny got 2 of 5 this week ,

he was right on the Over for the Jags/Texans game as the Texans went on a rampage against a lacklustre Jags Defense. 

Bronco's won but needed OT and didn't cover , Bengals won comfortable as you would expect against the Bill's miss Taylor who unfortunately didn't play in end. 

Arizona couldn't get the W vs Steelers on the road. 

Elsewhere Dolphins showed Play-Off credentials against taking them back to 3-3 after 3 game losing streak , Redskins continue to lack any finishing quality and RG3 has to be wondering what has happened given the mistakes the Cousins is making look to back their opponents in the upcoming weeks until see other evidence

 

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Danshot, yes I play the picks I post here. The system has been profitable in the past and usually ends up turning a profit by season's end.

I agree with your insights, the Dolphins look like a new team. What a difference a coach makes, we'll see if it was just a fluke.

Tough loss for the Falcons against a sewage team like NO. But the Saints always play up at the Dome in night games.

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Ten Benny that's way too many picks per nfl round. Lunacy. Your record speaks for itself and with that high a volume will only deteriorate further.

I disagree Steaks & Stakes , he is betting on the spread line and before this week was break even minus the juice the bookies take , this week may be a bad week by looks it so far but it seems to have some merit compared to other systems have witnessed on this site. And I think we should encourage the involvement in the forum. 

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Actually turned out to be a pretty good week for TwoBenny's predictions and the line I most liked the Panthers line rolled in pretty comfortably m so this thread is doing just fine , hope you keep posting your predictions. I forgot to post my tip of the week but didn't see anything better than the Panthers line that I already mentioned. 

Atlanta -4.5

Pittsburgh -2.5

Indianapolis - 4.5

Carolina -3

NY Giants -3.5

NY Jets +9

Dallas / NY Giants Over 45

Texans / Dolphins Over 44.5

Eagles / Panthers Under 46 

So 6-3 on the right side this side :) 

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Well, just back from vacation in time for Week 8. That was a nice turn around indeed last week after the early games to turn a nice profit. Carolina continues to defy the Odds makers, nice pick Danshot.

Other observations, the Dolphins appear to be a different team since the coaching change, 2 weeks now with convincing victories and a big test coming up a against the Pats.

Stay tuned for Week 8 picks coming up shortly.

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Steaks&Stakes - I know it seems like a large volume of picks but I actually pulled one game because I didn't like the line which turned out to be Seattle (covered). In my experience it's better to stick with the system, so long as you manage your bankroll and don't go overboard on your bets. We have another full card for Week 8 coming up.

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Unfortunately didn't have time to check out the lines this week , will make sure do in time for next week. 

Looks to be a slight loss this week on Benny's lines but Arizona cover the line again , surprised Tampa Bay beat Atlanta on the road that one has to be an anomaly , with Raiders currently beating Jets need a low scoring affair in Denver to leave this week as 4-4

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Steaks, I actually agree with you last week. I should have pulled the Miami game, on the road on a short week playing against NE was too much to overcome even spotting them the 8 points. Those are the types of things the computer doesn't factor.

Guys here is the first pick on the early game Week 9:

Cleveland / Cincinnati Over 45

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