only1woz Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 This is a system I have been doing for the last few years (on another betting forum). It's been profitable every season except last season where it tailed off towards the end of the season and ended up in a little bit of a loss. Nothing earth shattering, but it forced me to review it. Looking back over my previous results then if I was using my current selection criteria, it would've produced even more profit in the profitable seasons, and a decent profit last season, so here's hoping. Obviously with it being an underdog system then there can be considerable losing runs, but the wins should be big enough to cope with that. Started again at the start of this season and it's showing a loss of -£16 so far, but I know I can't include any of that on here, so I'll start afresh from this weekend. Also, where it says "DR" next to the odds (like in the Bayern match below) , this means that the odds for the home win were too high, so have backed the draw instead,This weekends selections are - 26.09.TOTTENHAMman city4.5£33.2826.09.LEICESTERarsenal4.5£33.2826.09.NEWCASTLEchelsea6.4£51.3526.09.MAINZbayern6.4DR (14.5)£51.30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted September 26, 2015 Author Share Posted September 26, 2015 Very unlucky, Mainz held out for a large portion of the match , and obviusly Newcastle were 2-0 up with 12 mins to go, but that is the nature of this system, you do get a number of late goals that scupper your positive result. I've learned to live with that lol Stil in a small profit thatks to Spurs :) 26.09.TOTTENHAMman city4.5£33.284 126.09.LEICESTERarsenal4.5-£10.002 526.09.NEWCASTLEchelsea6.4-£10.002 226.09.MAINZbayern6.4DR (14.5)-£10.000 3 TOTAL £3.28 thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Only 1 selection for this weekend, so here it is..... 03.10.SEVILLAbarcelona4.2£30.40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 3, 2015 Author Share Posted October 3, 2015 Nice start to this, hopefully keeps going. Actually that wasn't the strongest barca side I've ever seen and I think they may lose a few this season. Fingers crossed........... 03.10.SEVILLAbarcelona4.2£30.402 1 TOTAL £33.68 thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 nice start I have done this sort of thing but never stick with it and I always lose my bottle lol and do double chance on the outsider anyway good luck only1woz 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinny Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 hi woz,just a suggestion as i like the looks of this,you mention mainz v bayern backing the draw, now this is just a thought to edge potentiol loses out a bit more, with the price of mainz @ 14.5 and the draw @ 6.4 if you dutched the 2 results home win and draw you would still get a return of just under 7/2 for £10 outlay but this would also give you the home win in your favour...as i said just a thought and good luck with this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 10, 2015 Author Share Posted October 10, 2015 Is that better value than just doing Mainz DC?Historically then after my selections get above a certain odds it produces better results to just back the draw, I've found, but haven't looked at dutching , or DC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinny Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 its not the value of the bet i was looking at,its the option of having 2 winning outcomes rather than one with similar odds to what you have been posting on other games i.e the seville v barca game or the spurs or leicester game all between 3/1 and 7/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 11, 2015 Author Share Posted October 11, 2015 It's just coincidence that the first few selections are 4.5 or thereabouts. The system throws up 6.0 up to 10.0 regularly and sometimes over that. I had a cut-off point where anything above 12.5 is backed as a draw (like the bayern match above). However I've just reviewed my results with this over the last 3 seasons and it has lost me -£87 over that time.Also looking at it, backing the 2 results (home or draw) doesn't look like it would produce any profit either, altho less of a loss probably. This is a rough estimate tho, as I don't have the historical odds for DC on my matches.Incidentally, just backing the home team would've produced around £100 profit, from the same set of results. However, this would require some serious patience as last season produced ZERO winners from 22 selections. 3 winners from 8 selections from the season before produced £400 from the 3 winners alone so as I say, that would require a lot of discipline. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 15, 2015 Author Share Posted October 15, 2015 This weekends selections.....16.10.MAINZdortmund6.60£53.2017.10.WATFORDarsenal6.40£51.3517.10.BREMENbayern17.00£152.0018.10.SOCIEDADatl madrid4.50£33.25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 15, 2015 Author Share Posted October 15, 2015 I'm keeping a record of the matches I wuld normally back the draw on. It's obvious that backing the draw isn't creating profit. For the moment, I'm going to just back the home win, but I'm also keeping a record of the Win to nil for the away team (fav). From 30 selcetions it has produced 17 winners, so if odds are regularly over 2.0 then it should produce profit in the long term, and not £87 of a loss like backing the draw has done. Bayern are exactly 2.00 on betfair to win to nil, for the record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 18, 2015 Author Share Posted October 18, 2015 Not even a goal from our home underdogs this week, poor show boys.16.10.MAINZdortmund6.60-£10.000 217.10.WATFORDarsenal6.40-£10.000 317.10.BREMENbayern17.00-£10.000 118.10.SOCIEDADatl madrid4.50-£10.000 3 TOTALOVERALL -£6.32 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 24.10.WEST HAMchelsea4.10£29.4824.10.CELTA VIGOmadrid4.00£28.53Only 2 selections this week MPLouis 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 24, 2015 Author Share Posted October 24, 2015 (edited) I was sorely tempted to up my stakes on West Ham, as I really fancied them to win today. Back n the black now!24.10.WEST HAMchelsea4.10£29.482 124.10.CELTA VIGOmadrid4.00-£10.001 3 TOTALOVERALL £13.16 Edited October 24, 2015 by only1woz Madrid won 3-1, not 2-1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted October 29, 2015 Author Share Posted October 29, 2015 One or two of these going my way would be nice........31.10.PALACEman utd4.00£28.5331.10.SWANSEAarsenal5.30£40.8930.10.FRANKFURTbayern19.00£171.1831.10.BREMENdortmund8.40£70.3730.10.DEPORTIVOatl madrid6.40£51.3531.10.GETAFEbarcelona12.00£104.61 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted November 1, 2015 Author Share Posted November 1, 2015 Sore one this week, but I now there will be weeks like this with this system. Funny thing is if I'd kept with backing the draw for home dogs that are over certain odds then the bayern munich game would have been a winner for me, but cest la vie. Palace, Frankfurt and Deportivo all going close, but not close enough.31.10.PALACEman utd4.00-£10.000 031.10.SWANSEAarsenal5.30-£10.000 330.10.FRANKFURTbayern19.00-£10.000 031.10.BREMENdortmund8.40-£10.001 330.10.DEPORTIVOatl madrid6.40-£10.001 131.10.GETAFEbarcelona12.00-£10.000 2 TOTALOVERALL -£46.84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted November 5, 2015 Author Share Posted November 5, 2015 Only 3 for this weekend07.11.STOKEchelsea4.10£29.4808.11.ASTON VILLAman city8.20£68.4708.11.SEVILLAmadrid4.00£28.53 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uknowsit Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Also looking at it, backing the 2 results (home or draw) doesn't look like it would produce any profit either, altho less of a loss probably. This is a rough estimate tho, as I don't have the historical odds for DC on my matches. You can obtain this from http://www.football-bet-data-dashboard.co.uk/ Excel download. All previous odds are shown in the extract Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted November 8, 2015 Author Share Posted November 8, 2015 Good weekend this week, Aston Villa could've given me the perfect weekend but can't complain too much.07.11.STOKEchelsea4.10£29.481 008.11.ASTON VILLAman city8.20-£10.000 008.11.SEVILLAmadrid4.00£28.533 2 TOTALOVERALL £1.17 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 Selections for this weekend 20.11. HAMBURG dortmund 9.60 £81.00 21.11. WATFORD man u 5.00 £38.00 21.11. WEST BROM arsenal 7.40 £60.80 21.11. SCHALKE bayern 13.00 £114.00 22.11. BETIS atl madrid 6.40 £51.30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted November 22, 2015 Author Share Posted November 22, 2015 A great week for the system. This is how it has gone the last few seasons. A lot of weeks where you get a little profit, or a little loss, usually bobbing around break even, then you get a weekend like this week which puts the system in great profit. Happy days. 20.11. HAMBURG dortmund 9.60 £81.00 3 1 21.11. WATFORD man u 5.00 -£10.00 1 2 21.11. WEST BROM arsenal 7.40 £60.80 2 1 21.11. SCHALKE bayern 13.00 -£10.00 1 3 22.11. BETIS atl madrid 6.40 -£10.00 0 1 TOTAL OVERALL £112.97 LEE-GRAYS and Bedlam 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Wow, great weekend for your systems Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted November 23, 2015 Author Share Posted November 23, 2015 (edited) Thanks bud. Glad this one is doing well, coz this is the one I'm actually risking money on haha Edited November 23, 2015 by only1woz thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted November 26, 2015 Author Share Posted November 26, 2015 Only 2 selections this weekend. Who would've thought that Leicester at home to Man Utd would only be 3.20 to win? 29.11. NORWICH arsenal 6.20 £49.40 29.11. EIBAR madrid 8.40 £70.30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted November 29, 2015 Author Share Posted November 29, 2015 Norwich deserved to beat arsenal by al accounts, so unlucky to have 2 losers this week. 29.11. NORWICH arsenal 6.20 -£10.00 1 1 29.11. EIBAR madrid 8.40 -£10.00 0 2 TOTAL OVERALL £92.97 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Do you only do this at the weekend? I've often heard people say you get more underdogs winning in midweek, because the lights, weather and tiredness make midweek make it more of a "non-standard" game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 No I only do it for the German, English and Spanish league matches. If they fall on midweek then I'll put them up but it's usually domestic cups or champs /Europa lge in midweek so not many selections from midweek. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bewer Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 I've came up with similar picks in the past. For this weekend I've got: Wolfsburg - Dortmund Valencia - Barcelona Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted December 3, 2015 Author Share Posted December 3, 2015 A few this weekend 05.12. STOKE man city 6.00 £47.50 05.12. GLADBACH bayern 10.50 £90.25 05.12. WOLFSBURG dortmund 4.30 £31.38 05.12. GRANADA atl madrid 8.00 £66.50 05.12. VALENCIA barcelona 10.50 £90.25 06.12. NEWCASTLE liverpool 6.40 £51.30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted December 6, 2015 Author Share Posted December 6, 2015 (edited) A smashing weekend for the system. £160 profit from this weekend alone should put me in a good position to deal with any long losing streaks for the rest of the season 05.12. STOKE man city 6.00 £47.50 2 0 05.12. GLADBACH bayern 10.50 £90.25 3 1 05.12. WOLFSBURG dortmund 4.30 -£10.00 1 2 05.12. GRANADA atl madrid 8.00 -£10.00 0 2 05.12. VALENCIA barcelona 10.50 -£10.00 1 1 06.12. NEWCASTLE liverpool 6.40 £51.30 2 0 TOTAL £252.02 Edited December 6, 2015 by only1woz Correction to total Xtc12, Vilamoura04 and thecurlyone1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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