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cambridgeshire hcap saturday


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its been a quiet year relatively speaking as far as big race coups go .....normally ill latch onto something in the derby or other big races but hasnt really been anything special ........not that they always win ....thats always in the lap of the gods ...  poor start or trouble in running and even if youve got the best horse by far your race can be over before it starts .....but sometimes horses shout at you to be backed ...I.e ...ive run this cambridgeshire thru the computer .....

third time lucky   99.31 

polar forest       99 18 

portage       99.11 

 

portage is around 10/1 2nd fav for this so sets the benchmark nicely .... . but these two horses above him are currently 50/1 !!  .. and 25/1 !!! ....    that was the first thing I noted .... secondly ....top rated is trained by richard fahey ... .hes a sly man ....been mopping up races all season and suddenly has slipped one in the big race ???..   I ask myself would it be a shock if fahey won the cambridgeshire ? ....definately not given his season ..    ...more digging ...third time lucky won on the bit last time in a style suggesting hes well ahead of the hcapper and has only been raised 4 lbs which doesnt seem enough ........he is currently nestling at bottom weight .....another positive as light weights have historically done well in this ......  polar forest is also not to be ignored ....hasnt the sparkling profile of the top rated but has been running well and only about 4lbs above his best ever run so not out of it by any means ....certainly no 50/1 shot ....... yes its an open race ...currently 35 runners if they go .......obviuos traffic problems ....draw? ....  but looking at the ratings and profile ......I cant help asking myself ......has xmas come early ??........ always a chance he might not run at this early stage but there has been money for top one ...40-20 with will hill ......so im going to take some 25/1 while its available  .......  shot to nothin really ....won 15 points yest so ill just split it between the two and see what happens 

 

third time lucky  10 pts win  25/1 bet365 

polar forest  5 pts win 50/1 betvic 

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Third Time Lucky backed into 14/1 today Richard. Is that as a result of your post?!?!

haha ...I wish .....told my mate I reckon it would go off at around 12/1 if it runs ....he said nah ...ill get 20/1 friday ......lol.....ooops ....its 12/1 with ladbrokes!!! ....gamble has already started .....cant believe that 

Edited by richard-westwood
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haha ...I wish .....told my mate I reckon it would go off at around 12/1 if it runs ....he said nah ...ill get 20/1 friday ......lol.....ooops ....its 12/1 with ladbrokes!!! ....gamble has already started .....cant believe that 

I got on at 25/1 this morning so thanks for that!! Fingers crossed. 

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my blog is called punter petes horse  racing  blog and its in the systems and blogs section

homage Is a decent horse and he must be good value for the reasons you said....I dont think the draw matters as they are generally spread out and winners come from all places .....but at 40/1 thats the type of bet you want in such an open race .....

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Trends for anyone interested...

  • Winners have been aged three (3), four (3), five (2) and six.
  • Winners have carried between 8-7 and 9-9 with six between 8-7 and 8-12.
  • Winners have been rated between 87 and 104 with eight between 95 and 104.
  • Winners have been priced between 5/1 and 40/1 with eight returned at 16/1 or shorter and three sent off favourite.
  • Nine winners finished in the first five on their preceding start; only one finished first.
  • Nine winners had run since the beginning of August.
  • Nine winners had won a race during the current season.
  • All the winners had won or been placed in a Class 2 handicap or better.
  • Six winners had either won or been placed on either the July Course or the Rowley Mile Course.
  • Six winners had had 14 or fewer career starts whilst four had raced between 21 and 26 times.
  • Seven winners have been drawn 11 or higher.
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its been a quiet year relatively speaking as far as big race coups go .....normally ill latch onto something in the derby or other big races but hasnt really been anything special ........not that they always win ....thats always in the lap of the gods ...  poor start or trouble in running and even if youve got the best horse by far your race can be over before it starts .....but sometimes horses shout at you to be backed ...I.e ...ive run this cambridgeshire thru the computer .....

third time lucky   99.31 

polar forest       99 18 

portage       99.11 

 

third time lucky  10 pts win  25/1 bet365 

polar forest  5 pts win 50/1 betvic 

 

Cracking call Richard, well done mate!!

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its been a quiet year relatively speaking as far as big race coups go .....normally ill latch onto something in the derby or other big races but hasnt really been anything special ........not that they always win ....thats always in the lap of the gods ...  poor start or trouble in running and even if youve got the best horse by far your race can be over before it starts .....but sometimes horses shout at you to be backed ...I.e ...ive run this cambridgeshire thru the computer .....

third time lucky   99.31 

polar forest       99 18 

portage       99.11 

 

portage is around 10/1 2nd fav for this so sets the benchmark nicely .... . but these two horses above him are currently 50/1 !!  .. and 25/1 !!! ....    that was the first thing I noted .... secondly ....top rated is trained by richard fahey ... .hes a sly man ....been mopping up races all season and suddenly has slipped one in the big race ???..   I ask myself would it be a shock if fahey won the cambridgeshire ? ....definately not given his season ..    ...more digging ...third time lucky won on the bit last time in a style suggesting hes well ahead of the hcapper and has only been raised 4 lbs which doesnt seem enough ........he is currently nestling at bottom weight .....another positive as light weights have historically done well in this ......  polar forest is also not to be ignored ....hasnt the sparkling profile of the top rated but has been running well and only about 4lbs above his best ever run so not out of it by any means ....certainly no 50/1 shot ....... yes its an open race ...currently 35 runners if they go .......obviuos traffic problems ....draw? ....  but looking at the ratings and profile ......I cant help asking myself ......has xmas come early ??........ always a chance he might not run at this early stage but there has been money for top one ...40-20 with will hill ......so im going to take some 25/1 while its available  .......  shot to nothin really ....won 15 points yest so ill just split it between the two and see what happens 

 

third time lucky  10 pts win  25/1 bet365 

polar forest  5 pts win 50/1 betvic 

good old ffashioned coup .... heart in mouth in the photo ......but only thing you can say .....260 pts ....boooooooooooommmmmm ...fahey ...hes a master 

Edited by richard-westwood
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