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Serie A ~ September 22nd - 24th


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[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR] Tuesday 22 September 2015 Home Draw Away BPP [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Udinese v AC Milan (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2.34[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]99.92 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] Wednesday 23 September 2015 Home Draw Away BPP [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Carpi v Napoli (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]7[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.57[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.14 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Chievo v Torino (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2.62[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.20 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Fiorentina v Bologna (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]4.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]8.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]99.01 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Internazionale v Hellas Verona (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.43[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]5.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]10[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]99.16 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Juventus v Frosinone (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.18[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]8.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]26[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.50 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Lazio v Genoa (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.76[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.88[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]5.75[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]99.98 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Palermo v Sassuolo (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.82[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.20 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Sampdoria v AS Roma (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]4.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.95[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]99.34 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] Thursday 24 September 2015 Home Draw Away BPP [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Empoli v Atalanta (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.75[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]99.56 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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Anyone care to put me off over 2.5 goals in the Samp-Roma match?  Its priced up at evens.

  • Samp 4 last 6 over
  • Roma 3 last 6 over
  • Samp missing both fullbacks, veteran defensive midfielder Palombo doubtful, and suspect defensively.  Strong Eder-Muriel partnership has continued under Zenga.
  • Roma having to play De Rossi at CB and have been struggling to stop their more skilful opponents creating chances.
  • Roma out for revenge after 0-2 home defeat in March.

Negatives:

  • Both teams tend to play quite centrally (Salah excepted) which may give us a congested game.
  • Its not traditionally a high scoring fixture

Grateful for any views

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Well first off I should say that I do not play the unders/overs market so maybe I am not the best person to respond to this.

For me, Samp are really the archetypal 'overish' team in Serie A for 2015/2016. Their attack is currently strong but defence is currently weak. LB Regini - who I normally rate, has been an abomination so far this campaign and may perhaps be replaced by Zukanovic for the Roma game. Even if Regini is replaced for the Roma game I still feel Sampdoria's defence is unreliable and Roma certainly have the forwards to put it to the test.

Roma played out a 2-2 at the weekend against Sassuolo - a team that is not too disimilar in characteristics to Sampdoria so make of that what you will.

I think Betfair Exchange and Matchbook are both offering over 2.5 @ odds against for Samp V Roma and that would be the value play in my view. It may not win on the night but if you made the exact same bet 100 times you would find it profitable in my view.

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