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MPLouis

Playoffs - First legs, 20 Aug 2015

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Thur 20 August

Thursday 20 August 2015 Home Draw Away BPP
maximize.gif Astra Giurgiu v AZ Alkmaar (18:00 BST) 3 3.55 2.4 103.17 %
maximize.gif Atromitos Athens v Fenerbahçe SK (18:00 BST) 4.8 3.7 1.85 101.91 %
maximize.gif BSC Young Boys v FK Qarabag (18:00 BST) 1.65 3.9 5.9 103.20 %
maximize.gif Cashpoint SCR Altach v Belenenses (18:00 BST) 2.77 3.5 2.6 103.13 %
maximize.gif Dinamo Minsk v FC Red Bull Salzburg (18:00 BST) 3.52 3.55 2.15 103.09 %
maximize.gif FC Milsami-Ursidos Orhei v Saint-Étienne (18:00 BST) 7.7 4.1 1.52 103.17 %
maximize.gif FC Slovan Liberec v Hajduk Split (18:00 BST) 2.3 3.4 3.84 98.93 %
maximize.gif FC Thun v AC Sparta Praha (18:00 BST) 2.75 3.52 2.68 102.09 %
maximize.gif FC Viktoria Plzen v Vojvodina (18:00 BST) 1.6 4 6.5 102.88 %
maximize.gif FK Baumit Jablonec v Ajax (18:00 BST) 3.22 3.5 2.5 99.63 %
maximize.gif FK Krasnodar v HJK Helsinki (18:00 BST) 1.3 6.5 11 101.40 %
maximize.gif FK Rabotnicki v Rubin Kazan (18:00 BST) 4.15 3.6 1.95 103.16 %
maximize.gif Girondins de Bordeaux v FC Kairat Almaty (18:00 BST) 1.4 5 8.6 103.06 %
maximize.gif Lech Poznan v Videoton FC (18:00 BST) 1.6 3.85 6.8 103.18 %
maximize.gif Molde v Standard de Liège (18:00 BST) 2.52 3.4 2.94 103.11 %
maximize.gif MŠK Žilina v Athletic Bilbao (18:00 BST) 5.2 3.75 1.8 101.45 %
maximize.gif Odd Grenland v Borussia Dortmund (18:00 BST) 11 5 1.4 100.52 %
maximize.gif Panathinaikos v FK Qäbälä (18:00 BST) 1.43 5.1 7.5 102.87 %
maximize.gif PAOK v Brøndby IF (18:00 BST) 2.25 3.4 3.68 101.03 %
maximize.gif Southampton v FC Midtjylland (18:00 BST) 1.4 7 9.9 95.82 %
maximize.gif Steaua Bucuresti v Rosenborg BK (18:00 BST) 1.85 3.5 5.25 101.67 %
maximize.gif Zorya Luhansk v Legia Warszawa (18:00 BST) 3.16 3.45 2.35 103.18 %

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Comparing elo ratings for both sides in each game, and taking account of home advantage, I see possible value backing Krasnodar, Atromitos, Rubin Kazan and Odd at current odds Krasnodar - HJK Krasnodar -1.5 1.65 Marathon Atromitos - Fenerbahce Atromitos +0.5 1.95 188Bet Rabotnicki - Rubin Kazan Rubin 2.1 Betfred Odd - Dortmund Odd +2.5 1.62 Marathon Stake: 3 points on each Total stake: 12 points

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Steaua Bucure?ti - Rosenbork BK The odds seem quite... odd. Steaua are in a poor form at the moment and they didn't manage to grab a win in their last four matches (well, they were denied a league win against Astra Giurgiu, having 3 goals mistakenly disallowed). Moreover, the general atmosphere around the squad is really bad: 1) the de facto manager, Mirel Radoi, was banned by UEFA and will not be able to sit on the bench, as he doesn't have a PRO license; 2) the club lost much of its fan base following the controversy around "Steaua" trademark. Actually, in Romania, the club is now officially called "FCSB", while the trademark "Steaua" now belongs to the Romanian Army. Therefore, a low attendance is expected for tomorrow; 3) Steaua's captain, Varela, will miss the game, following the red card received with Partizan Belgrad. Midfielder Breeveld is also suspended. Varela's absence is quite important, as the other central defender, Paul Papp - although a solid national squad player - is not in his best shape; he literally ruined Steaua's chances against Partizan. Steaua's players are well aware that a defeat in the UEL play-off will seriously complicate their lives, after owner Gigi Becali threatened to cut the cash flow if the European campaign ends now. Rosenborg, on the other hand, is on a winning streak. They lead the Eliteserien and the played very good football against Valerenga (4th place) on Saturday. Søderlund scored at least 1 goal in each of the past five matches so he will be a real threat for Steaua. I will go with Rosenborg to win: 3.76 @ Pinnacle.

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Gabala FC v Panathinaikos Gabala FC: Urfan Abbasov (2/0 d, suspended), Cavid Hüseynov (0/0 m) Panathinaikos (last term): Viktor Klonaridis (29/3 f), Kostas Kotsaris (0/0 g), Mickael Essien (m, newcomer), Konstantinos Triandafillopulos (22/1 d), Sergio Sánchez (d, newcomer) Odd BK v Borussia Dortmund Odd BK: Frode Johnsen (9/2 f), Pape Diouf (1/0 m) Borussia Dortmund: Lukasz Piszczek (1/0 d), Marco Reus (1/1 f), Jakub Blaszczykowski (0/0 m), Erik Durm (0/0 d), Nuri Sahin (0/0 m) FK Krasnodar v HJK Helsinki FK Krasnodar: Mauricio Pereyra (3/0 m), Ricardo Laborde (5/1 m)(both doubtful), Joãozinho (0/0 m) HJK Helsinki: Mac Kandji (0/0 f), Demba Savage (17/6 f, 2nd top scorer), Nikolai Alho (0/0 f), Veli Lampi (14/0 d), Sebastian Sorsa (21/1 d) Southampton v FC Midtjylland Southampton: Ryan Bertrand (0/0 d), Jordy Clasie (0/0 m), Fraser Forster (0/0 g), Florin Gardos (0/0 d), Gaston Ramirez (0/0 m) FC Midtjylland: Rilwan Hassan (0/0 m), Jim Larsen (0/0 d), Eyjolfur Hedinsson (0/0 m) Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 50 football leagues and competitions at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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FC Viktoria Plzen v Vojvodina I will write something about Vojvodina, since I am from Serbia. Vojvodina started excellent this season, and noone have expected that. In the first round of EL qualifications they played vs MTK from Hungary. After visiting 0-0, at home Vojvodina won 3-1. Second round was easier as Vojvodina played vs Spartaks from Latvia and away was 1-1. At home Vojvodina easily won 3-0. In last round the opponent was Sampdoria and we all expected some nice fight from Vojvodina. BUT, in Italy Vojvodina managed to win 4-0 and Sampdoria managed to win in Serbia 2-0. So Vojvodina pass by Sampdoria and today will visit Viktoria Plzen. Vojvodina has a good team, mix of experienced and young guns. They are fighters and they run a lot. They are not so good technicans. Most valuable player worth something about 2 milion of EUR's. On what we are proud is victory vs Samprodia in Italy, it was . . . fantastic. BUT, from my point of view it was something like this: 1. Samp was in preparation period - havy legs 2. That was first official game for Samp. 3. New players & new coach 4. Probably Sampdoria players didn't heard for Vojvodina at all. 5. It was obvious that Samp lack fitness. They played slow and only individual. 6. Vojvodina on the other side was like the picture in the mirror. They played at full strenght, fast and pressing. In second leg, at Vojvodina stadium, just 7 days after first game, Samp easily recorded 2-0 victory, But again they didn't had the fitness in last 20-30 minutes. Now, Vojvodina owner is expecting another fighting game in Plzen. And Vojvodina will have full squad. It seems that Viktoria is conceiding lately and that could be the chance for Vojvodina to score at least once. I don't know much about Viktoria, but they have played already 4 games in domestic league and CL qualifications vs Maccabi. It will be tight game, but I rate it 70%-30% favoring Viktoria.

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MŠK Žilina - Athletic Bilbao I think that both teams to score is a worth to try today, because it represents some value in my opinion and it looked like an obvious bet to me when I saw this game. Sometimes it´s tricky but I am going to try it today. We had seen that home side is capable of scoring goals and even if this is an opponent from absolutely another level as those before, their chances to score are not that low. Bilbao is coming to Slovakia after an extraordinary performance against Barcelona, and now I´m thinking if this is going to play in their or in Žilina´s favour. Bilbao is going to play against Barca again on Sunday and if they manage at least not to lose on Sunday, they will be heroes. On the other hand, even if they left a few players in Spain to rest, I´m sure they take EL seriously as long as winning EL might be the only chance to get CL spot, considering that finishing in TOP4 in Spain is always very difficult, except for Barca and Real. What is more, they have enough power to decide this game in 2nd leg but I´m sure they are not going to rely on that, but anyway ... something like 1-1 is not a disaster. Considering Žilina´s offensive style of play, Bilbao´s attacking power and resting few players, both to score is my choice! Both teams to score @2.20 Bet365

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MŠK Žilina - Athletic Bilbao I think that both teams to score is a worth to try today, because it represents some value in my opinion and it looked like an obvious bet to me when I saw this game. Sometimes it´s tricky but I am going to try it today. We had seen that home side is capable of scoring goals and even if this is an opponent from absolutely another level as those before, their chances to score are not that low. Bilbao is coming to Slovakia after an extraordinary performance against Barcelona, and now I´m thinking if this is going to play in their or in Žilina´s favour. Bilbao is going to play against Barca again on Sunday and if they manage at least not to lose on Sunday, they will be heroes. On the other hand, even if they left a few players in Spain to rest, I´m sure they take EL seriously as long as winning EL might be the only chance to get CL spot, considering that finishing in TOP4 in Spain is always very difficult, except for Barca and Real. What is more, they have enough power to decide this game in 2nd leg but I´m sure they are not going to rely on that, but anyway ... something like 1-1 is not a disaster. Considering Žilina´s offensive style of play, Bilbao´s attacking power and resting few players, both to score is my choice! Both teams to score @2.20 Bet365
MŠK Žilina - Athletic Bilbao 3-2 WON Well, what a comeback! Anyway, both teams managed to score, and not only once, so that went smoothly!

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Comparing elo ratings for both sides in each game, and taking account of home advantage, I see possible value backing Krasnodar, Atromitos, Rubin Kazan and Odd at current odds Krasnodar - HJK Krasnodar -1.5 1.65 Marathon Atromitos - Fenerbahce Atromitos +0.5 1.95 188Bet Rabotnicki - Rubin Kazan Rubin 2.1 Betfred Odd - Dortmund Odd +2.5 1.62 Marathon Stake: 3 points on each Total stake: 12 points
won, returns 4.95 lost lost won, returns 4.86 Total stake: 12 points Total return: 9.81 points

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