Third Qualifying Round - First Legs

[MPLouis]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR] Tuesday 28 July 2015 Home Draw Away BPP [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]CSKA Moscow v AC Sparta Praha (17:15 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.66[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]4.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]7.1[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]98.72 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FC Midtjylland v APOEL (18:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2.14[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.14 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FC Milsami-Ursidos Orhei v KS Skënderbeu Korçë (18:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.55[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.60 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Maccabi Tel Aviv v FC Viktoria Plzen (18:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2.62[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.49 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Fenerbahçe SK v Shakhtar Donetsk (19:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.26[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.09 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Panathinaikos v Club Brugge (19:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2.52[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.34 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]BSC Young Boys v AS Monaco (19:15 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]4.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2.07[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.29 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Videoton FC v FC BATE Borisov (19:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.02[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2.64[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.29 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Dinamo Zagreb v Molde (20:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.74[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]6.3[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]98.34 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] Wednesday 29 July 2015 Home Draw Away BPP [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]HJK Helsinki v FC Astana (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.1[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.49 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FC Red Bull Salzburg v Malmö FF (18:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.44[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]5.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]8.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.44 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Steaua Bucuresti v FK Partizan (19:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.85[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.72 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Celtic v FK Qarabag (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.47[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]4.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]9[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.19 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Lech Poznan v FC Basel (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2.75[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]99.83 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]SK Rapid Wien v Ajax (20:05 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2.82[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2.7[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.48 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[MPLouis]

UEFA articles: http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/newsid=2266240.html http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/newsid=2267295.html Wiki page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_UEFA_Champions_League_qualifying_phase_and_play-off_round#Third_qualifying_round

[malabgd]

FC Midtjylland v APOEL FC FC Midtjylland: Hassan (0/0 m), Nielsen (0/0 d), Hédinsson (0/0 m), Larsen (0/0 d) APOEL FC (last term): Antoniades (11/0 d), Kaká (20/0 d), João Guilherme (26/0 d), Pardo (21/0 g) Panathinaikos v Club Brugge Panathinaikos (last term): Essien (m, newcomer), Thelander (d, newcomer), Klonaridis (29/3 f), Nano (29/0 d) Club Brugge: Refaelov (1/0 m), Bolat (0/0 g), Claudemir (0/0 m), Gedoz (0/0 m), Engels (0/0 d), Meunier (0/0 d), Ibini-Isei (0/0 f) Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 50 football leagues and competitions at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[Simeon Borisof]

Videoton-BATE Both sides are extremely defensively minded and have no potential attacking threats.Both rely on solid defending and midfield area and i would be very interested to see how this similiar line-ups fight against each other.Videoton eliminated T.N.S after going to ET.It will be fair to say that VIdeoton were the better of the two in both fixtures but poor finishing in Hungary could've let them down.Anyway they were victorious in the ET and here they are facing BATE who beat Dundalk at home and drew 0:0 on the road.BATE faced Levski a several years ago and they were as defensive as they are now.On the road it;s even worse.They park the bus at the back and just wait.They have no real attacking weapons and rely mostly on physical strenght and tackling.They will be without their 2nd top scorer for today which will limit their attacking options even more and should help this bet.Videoton are not technically gifted either and i won't be surprised to see many yellow cards here with more tackles and less of a football.The way i see it, it will be a 0:0 or 1:0 kind of game.Under 2 @ evens with bet365.GL! 1:1

[MPLouis]

Comparing elo ratings, there is possible value backing APOEL and Milsami tonight, and opposing Monaco - at current odds. Midtjylland (Den) - APOEL (Cyp) Apoel +0.5 1.85 Bet365 Milsami (Mda) - Skenderbeu (Alb) Mil -0.25 1.98 Bet365 Young Boys (Sui) - Monaco (Fra) Young Boys +0.5 1.83 Bet365 Stake 3 points on each Total stake: 9 points

[west64]

Steaua Bucharest - Partizan Belgrade wow, I cant believe the odds I am seeing here. Partizan as high as 3.5 @ bet365. If we take into account the results these teams produced during the past few european campaigns, the odds do seem "fair". But in light of recent results I cant see how Steaua can be considered a favorite in any way. Last few matches have shown that Steaua has certain issues on the field, I believe the source of the problem is mainly organisational in nature, certain money currents are moving away from the club, consequently we have seen a couple of departures - mainly the most prominent players have found different employers. Their duel vs. Slovakian Trenchin showed us that Steaua is indeed quite a limited team defensively. The first match (away @ Trenchin) produced a score which couldnt have been more misleading, 0-2 for Steaua. The quick goals came from a couple of counterattacks, but Trenchin were dictating the tempo throughout the game. Second leg, same issues for Steaua. Slow defenders, full backs are doing everything except running their side. The midfield lacks creativity and speed. The result? 3 goals in the net of Steaua and could have been much more. The last league match was a day-off for the team, with mainly fringe players securing a draw for a mediocre start of the season. On the other side we have Partizan Belgrade, who have been impressive in their start of the season, securing b2b victories with zero goals conceded. The team this year seems much better than the previous season. The new signings include Slovenian internation Balazic (CB) and Bulgarian international Bojinov, who is class on its own, but has been quite unlucky with injuries in the past. So far he seems to be the dominant striker Partizan was looking for, while Balazic seems to be quite confident in the back. The true power of this team is the wingers and full backs, the speed, creativity and confidence are well shown. Vulicevic (a modern wing-back causes too much trouble and with the limited defense Steaua is coming forth I can see many chances for Partizan) Youngsters (mainly Šaponjic and Živkovic) have proven their worth in the atack. The new coach seems to play offensive football, which resulted in 13 goals so far (zero conceded) in 4 matches (including 2 legs with Dila Gori). Of course all of these games were against weak opposition, but the quality of football is there. The players seem confident and as they claim they believe in victory tommorow. Tommorows match smells like an away victory to me and at these odds its hard to resist. Since this is the first leg I will not go in heavily on the match, but I will punt 3 units on Partizan @ 3.50 and another unit on a handicap win @ 7.50. For those less confident a couple of bets include: Steaua clean sheet - NO @ 1.53 Partizan DNB 2.37 Other bets I will formulate in-play since there can be juicy odds for certain markets. GL! quick edit: Steaua hosts Partizan in front of empty stands at the National Arena in Bucharest, part of their sentence for racist raging of the fans. Another factor which adds to my confidence that Partizan will come out with a result here.

[Masturbinho]

Completely agree with west 64 that value is on Partizan's side. The notorious "home factor" in the qualifying rounds will be completely neutralized because: - The match is played in front of empty stands (as stated in the post above) - The match is not played in Steaua's home stadium - Bucharest and Belgrade are very close geographically, so no unpleasant climate/altitude/weather surprises for the Partizan players

[MPLouis]

Wednesday's games Again, comparing elo ratings, there is possible value opposing Salzburg and backing Steaua - at current odds. Salzburg (Aut) - Malmo FF (Swe) Malmo +1.5 1.75 Marathon Steaua Bucuresti (Rou) - Partizan (Srb) Steaua -0.25 1.9 Bet365 Stake 3 points on each Total stake: 6 points

[MPLouis]

Comparing elo ratings, there is possible value backing APOEL and Milsami tonight, and opposing Monaco - at current odds. Midtjylland (Den) - APOEL (Cyp) Apoel +0.5 1.85 Bet365 Milsami (Mda) - Skenderbeu (Alb) Mil -0.25 1.98 Bet365 Young Boys (Sui) - Monaco (Fra) Young Boys +0.5 1.83 Bet365 Stake 3 points on each Total stake: 9 points

won lost lost Total stake: 9 points Total return: 5.55 points Profit/loss = -3.45 points

[Icongene]

Videoton-BATE Both sides are extremely defensively minded and have no potential attacking threats.Both rely on solid defending and midfield area and i would be very interested to see how this similiar line-ups fight against each other.Videoton eliminated T.N.S after going to ET.It will be fair to say that VIdeoton were the better of the two in both fixtures but poor finishing in Hungary could've let them down.Anyway they were victorious in the ET and here they are facing BATE who beat Dundalk at home and drew 0:0 on the road.BATE faced Levski a several years ago and they were as defensive as they are now.On the road it;s even worse.They park the bus at the back and just wait.They have no real attacking weapons and rely mostly on physical strenght and tackling.They will be without their 2nd top scorer for today which will limit their attacking options even more and should help this bet.Videoton are not technically gifted either and i won't be surprised to see many yellow cards here with more tackles and less of a football.The way i see it, it will be a 0:0 or 1:0 kind of game.Under 2 @ evens with bet365.GL!

Ouch. Almost a great tip. I followed you on under 2 on small stakes and under 2.5 on medium. Looked all the way in on both :(

[malabgd]

HJK Helsinki v FC Astana HJK Helsinki: Nikolai Alho (0/0 f) FC Astana: Nenad Eri? (17/0 first goalkeeper, doubtful), Roger Cañas (20/5 m, suspended) Rapid Wien v AFC Ajax Rapid Wien: Schrammel (1/0 d), Kuen (0/0 m), Pavelic (0/0 d) AFC Ajax (last term): Younes (f, newcomer), Cillessen (32/0 first goalkeeper, doubtful), van der Hoorn (15/2 d, suspended) Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 50 football leagues and competitions at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[Simeon Borisof]

Ouch. Almost a great tip. I followed you on under 2 on small stakes and under 2.5 on medium. Looked all the way in on both :(

It went as expected with a lot of fight in the midfield area.There were just a couple of mistakes in the game and 2 of them led to the goals.The one in 89 min killed me.Anyway,Bet Void.

[west64]

Rapid Vienna - Ajax Amsterdam Rapid has a couple of decent performances in the past few matches, most notably they have beaten FSV Frankfurt in a friendly, and they do seem to be a compact crew. They have some minor changes to the squad from last year, but the main options (judging from the past 4 games) still rely on Kainz as an experienced midfielder and slovenian international Beric up front. Overall they usually fail to impress at this stage, and in my opinion their latest results might be misleading with odds following suit. On the other hand Ajax do seem to be a bit shaky, taking into account their preparations and friendlies vs. the likes of Wolfsburg (drew 1-1), St. Etienne (lost 1-0) and nordsjeland (lost 1-3). Having seen some of the match vs St. Etienne I can state that these results are probably not something to build our forecast on, rather it was obvious that Ajax can play on a higher level, since all of the teams they met are most likely a class or two above Rapid. The midfield will again be commanded by Klassen probably assisted by the experienced serbian international Gudelj. Up front most likely Milik, who had a decent season and also managed to score a goal against Panathinaikos, but there are options De Boer can choose from. The season has yet to start in Holland, which can be a bit tricky, but at the odds offered @ 3.0 (williams) for Ajax win, I will surely stake 3/10 units, and formulate additional bets in-play. GL

[quote]

Take Steua to win against Partizan. Partizan are slow and will go to defend at Bucharest. Steua only has problems in defense but in attack good players came and does not have any financial worry (this is just bull**** in the Serbian press). I expect hosts to score at least 2 and will not conceed more than 1. Steua should have been 1.45 not 2.25.

[quote]

Steaua Bucharest - Partizan Belgrade On the other side we have Partizan Belgrade, who have been impressive in their start of the season, securing b2b victories with zero goals conceded. The team this year seems much better than the previous season. The new signings include Slovenian internation Balazic (CB) and Bulgarian international Bojinov, who is class on its own, but has been quite unlucky with injuries in the past. So far he seems to be the dominant striker Partizan was looking for, while Balazic seems to be quite confident in the back. The true power of this team is the wingers and full backs, the speed, creativity and confidence are well shown. Vulicevic (a modern wing-back causes too much trouble and with the limited defense Steaua is coming forth I can see many chances for Partizan) Youngsters (mainly Šaponjic and Živkovic) have proven their worth in the atack. The new coach seems to play offensive football, which resulted in 13 goals so far (zero conceded) in 4 matches (including 2 legs with Dila Gori).

Steua had limited defense and they keep transferring players in attack strangely nobody remarking this. The thing is that Partizan might be much poorer than Trencin in attack and slow. My guess is that Partizan will not look good tonight. The Serbian league is just poor. Away team surely a controlled victim. My two cents.

[MPLouis]

Wednesday's games Again, comparing elo ratings, there is possible value opposing Salzburg and backing Steaua - at current odds. Salzburg (Aut) - Malmo FF (Swe) Malmo +1.5 1.75 Marathon Steaua Bucuresti (Rou) - Partizan (Srb) Steaua -0.25 1.9 Bet365 Stake 3 points on each Total stake: 6 points

lost half void/half lost Total stake: 6 points Total return: 1.5 points Profit/loss = -4.5 points