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UFC 189: Mendes vs. McGregor


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This was nearly the fight we all wanted, but since Jose Aldo broke a rib in training, Chad 'Money' Mendes comes in on two weeks notice to face the rising enigma that is 'The Notorious' Conor McGregor. The Notorious one has an unblemished UFC record, (5-0), versus Mendes (8-2), with both loses to the pound for pound monster, Jose 'Scarface' Aldo. Mendes started as favourite, but has went out to 2.6 - This, in my opinion, screams value. The one burning question everyone has had since McGregor went on a tear is, 'how will he fair against the divisions wrestlers'. We'll now get that question answered and this is as exciting as the Aldo fight, I think. I hope Conor blow the doors clean of Mendes, but part of me thinks the UFC is doing a work on me, the same as they did when Hardy fought GSP. We've not seen Conor against someone that will relentlessly shoot for the takedown and put him under constant pressure (if he chooses to do so). Conor is a huge FW, and was supposedly 172lbs only a few days ago (has to be 145lbs tomorrow night), so it's a possibility that cut might effect him if this goes the full 5 rounds as it's a Championship fight. I hope Conors defensive wrestling is decent, and I really hope he stuffs a few TDs and blasts Mendes, but my gut feeling is that in a few ways this is a harder fight than Aldo, and he's not had the preparation to deal with someone as elite as Chad in such a short space of time. Possible late finish for Chad, or a grinding UD, which would be the worst outcome for McGregor. Elsewhere on the card, Gunner 'Gunni' Nelson looks like a decent bet (2.62), against the monstrously sized Brandon Thatch. Thatch was choked out by the old 155lb king Benson Henderson, and if Gunni can get a hold of him, I think it could end the same way. [TABLE=class: toccolours] [TR] Main Card [/TR] [TR] Weight class Method Round Time Notes [/TR] [TR] [TD]Featherweight[/TD] [TD]Chad Mendes[/TD] [TD]vs.[/TD] [TD]Conor McGregor[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD][a][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Welterweight[/TD] [TD]Robbie Lawler ©[/TD] [TD]vs.[/TD] [TD]Rory MacDonald[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Featherweight[/TD] [TD]Dennis Bermudez[/TD] [TD]vs.[/TD] [TD]Jeremy Stephens[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Welterweight[/TD] [TD]Gunnar Nelson[/TD] [TD]vs.[/TD] [TD]Brandon Thatch[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bantamweight[/TD] [TD]Brad Pickett[/TD] [TD]vs.[/TD] [TD]Thomas Almeida[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1) [/TR] [TR] [TD]Welterweight[/TD] [TD]Matt Brown[/TD] [TD]vs.[/TD] [TD]Tim Means[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Welterweight[/TD] [TD]Mike Swick[/TD] [TD]vs.[/TD] [TD]Alex Garcia[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Welterweight[/TD] [TD]Cathal Pendred[/TD] [TD]vs.[/TD] [TD]John Howard[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bantamweight[/TD] [TD]Cody Garbrandt[/TD] [TD]vs.[/TD] [TD]Henry Briones[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass) [/TR] [TR] [TD]Flyweight[/TD] [TD]Neil Seery[/TD] [TD]vs.[/TD] [TD]Louis Smolka[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lightweight[/TD] [TD]Yosdenis Cedeno[/TD] [TD]vs.[/TD] [TD]Cody Pfister[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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I agree with all you say, there's value in both bets. I'm going for a very long shot in Brad Pickett, he's been written off for this fight and could well be cut if he loses, he's only won twice in his last six and fighting for life in the UFC. He's very hard to put away, fights with a high pace, plenty of heart and will take one to land one. I don't think Almeida has fought anyone with the tenacity of Pickett and with such a well rounded game. Brad Picket to Win 5/1 @ Skybet

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Betting on Mendes is a very good tip for me too. The other good value for me is for over 2.5 rounds @1.90 in the fight. Mendes is one of the toughest guys in the division and i cant see McGregor finish this match in the first two rounds. Close desicion for Mendes is my prediction. The other championship fight is also very interesting. Rory McDonald seems to be the favourite, but this is only on the first look. Roby Lowler is very expirienced fighter and i think he is not going to let Rory to play his game. 2.50 for Roby is a very good value and i will try it for sure. About Nelson and Thatch. Two interesting fighters, Thatch has very good striking and if Nelson dont bring the fight to the ground he is over. If Nelson brings the fight to the ground, he can finish the fight very quick, as Ben Henderson did with Thatch. My prediction is for short fight which will end in first ot second round so the best value for me here is under 1.5 rounds @2.40

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I am very glad to see that there are more maniacs on UFC betting like me. I will post my predictions every weekend when there is an UFC event. For this evening`s TUF 21 Finale i have some more tips: Jorge Masvidal to win @1.40 Jake Elenberger - Stephen Tompson - under 2.5 rounds @2.25

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