The Drifters

[Gavlar17]

No, not quite what you were thinking.... I'm referring to those bets which you have struck only to then see a remarkable drift in the betting exchanges in the lead-up to the off. I'm just looking to gauge a bit of forum opinion surrounding how much attention is actually paid to drifters in the market. In the past, unless it was a significant move, I wouldn't have given it much attention and would have actually been grateful that I'd got on online and was benefitting from BOG. However, over the past couple of months, anything I'm backing which goes on the drift (even slightly) seems to run an absolute horror-show. What are your thoughts? Is a drift in the market enough to put you off?

[BillyHills]

Overall i tend to agree with your findings although i rarely have a bet close to the off so it doesn't actually alter how i bet, if that makes sense. A couple of times lately i have backed a horse in the morning at around 10/1 only to watch the race much later and see its drifted out to double the odds. At first i'm thinking thats good value and then it gradually dawns on you that your on a no hoper and it runs poorly. To answer you last question; i wouldn't back a horse close to the off that had drifted to double the odds.

[Valiant Thor]

I normally play in the front end of the market 1/1 to 3/1 range so if Im happy with BOG early price book im on before the betfair markets really get going. Saying that I do back in some races where I wait to see how the market goes if my selection is over 3/1. I like to keep things nice and simple , say for example I price my selection as a 8/1 shot (9.00) If it..... Shortens up to a max of 20% back it Drifts out by 50% no bet Or if it drifts out to larger than the number of runners no bet Those rules seem to work for me using my past betting data but may not suit the odds your betting at,maybe you can look at your past results and set a few simple rules in the range what suits you.

[mowgli77]

The 10 mins or so before the race seem to speak volumes with the drifters. I backed Yuften at York on Saturday at 5-1. It drifted to 11-2 and then in seconds went right out to 7-1 yet there was no obvious reason on course so must have been the exchanges speaking. It ran like a stuffed pig and I won't be backing the bloody thing again but the drift worried me and it was justified. It seems to be if something drifts by about 4pts or so in the betting late on it runs a shocker. Kevin Ryan had one at Doncaster the other week that was 7-1 early doors. Whoneedsrio's mate Steve checked on Betfair and the horse had drifted out to around 29.0 yet on course the odds were nowhere near 29.0 and had he not mentioned it the bookies boards would not have shown such a huge drift. Ran a stinker as expected.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Brung this up many times, always strange when the exchanges or bookmakers have enough confidence to shove prices out, as I've said before its like they have info that gives them the confidence, and lets face it, if the horse runs to that price drift they were right. They had confidence to push out the price cause it was NEVER winning. So call it what you want, i call it hustled.

[Hit]

On the other side, i've backed a few horses that have drifted to double the odds in the last 5/10 mins before the off & they've gone on to win.. And plenty who've shortened up alot & gone on to lose..! I tend to put abit more on the drifter, after my initial bet.

[Jimmy2shoes]

On the other side' date=' i've backed a few horses that have drifted to double the odds in the last 5/10 mins before the off & they've gone on to win.. And plenty who've shortened up alot & gone on to lose..! I tend to put abit more on the drifter, after my initial bet.[/quote'] The drift and lose will far outweigh the drift and win, people have selective memories with winners & losers

[Gavlar17]

Thanks for all the responses guys, some really interesting input. It initially got me thinking about when is the best time to strike your bet. Do you take a bet the evening before or do you risk missing out on the price to see how the exchange reacts as this is quite often informative about a horses likely performance (or non-performance!). I suppose it's all in the overall risk of gambling. There's a number of pros and cons for each and I suppose ultimately it is down to personal preference. Unbelievably, after starting this thread on Tuesday, I was having a bet on the 17:50 at Thirsk. I was torn between Indastar (joint-fav at 9/2) and Jebediah Shine (15/2). Indastart was race fit, having had a run a few weeks beforehand however, Jebediah Spring had the most scope for improvement and that was ultimately where my decision ended up - would the race fitness give Indastar the edge or would Jebediah Spring improve too much. I was leaning towards the progressive one and then, in the new minutes before the off, Indastart gets smashed into 11/4 clear favourite and Jebediah Spring drifts out to 10/1 (I didn't catch the exchange SPs - perhaps someone can advise where I can view this). I therefore elected to back the fav and watched in dismay as Jebediah Spring shoots out of the stall and makes all for a cosy 1.5 length victory. I guess that's racing for you.

[mowgli77]

I backed Russian Heroine last night at Ripon. I took 5-2 in the morning BOG with Bet365 but I was on course last night too. Opened at 3-1 and I took that as the market wasn't moving much, Red Tycoon slight favourite at 11-4. About 3-5 mins before the off just after the horses had gone to post Russian Heroine drifts out to 4-1 on most boards and 9-2 on a handful of others. My slight concern was the ground (does she need soft) and having just gone to post I wondered if she had not moved well on her way to the stalls. I nearly went in again at 9-2 but considered it a negative. She comes out of the stalls, has position to make a move on the outside and wins going away by over 2 lengths. Happy that I've backed a winner but gutted I didn't get the 9-2 when she drifted and have a 2nd bet on course.

[Gavlar17]

There is always going to be market moves and it will always work both ways. It's good when it works in your favour but it's always the ones which drift signifcantly then run a stinker which really stick in your mind. They're the frustrating ones and the type which triggered me into creating this thread in the first place. You may be dissapointed to have missed the 9/2 on course Mowgli but you can't always get on at the best price. You must have still considered the 4/1 you managed to get as value given that you backed it at 5/2 initially so I would suggest this is a good bet - all winners are good winners in my book! :D

[Jimmy2shoes]

I also backed Jebediah Shine but got lucky, The Magic sign were doing BOG ''in shops'' from 5pm to 6pm, but i had took the 10/1 anyway. The magic sign have been doing BOG from 12pm to 1pm Then again from 5pm to 6pm Its been working well this week, for a big change.

[Valiant Thor]

Still prefer the Stylistics

[Gavlar17]

What do you mean Valiant Thor?

[mowgli77]

What do you mean Valiant Thor?

https://youtu.be/EPEqRMVnZNU

[Gavlar17]

Hahaha, that went completely over my head!!

[Jimmy2shoes]

Stocking in the 2:45 at Wolves was as low as 5/4 & 6/4 last night, all she's done is Drift, she's now showing 7/2 - 10/3 - 3/1 Have the firms been told its not her day ? Time will tell. Just a little note too, she made the course last week but would not load in the stalls, and on that day she was well supported, Its Roger Varian's only course runner.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Thought i was being clever taking 9/4 - funny game at times.

[Gavlar17]

Now that's something you don't see everyday - a drift from 5/4 out to 7/2 that actually goes on and wins!! That said, you can maybe see why it wasn't strongly fancied. I know I don't typically back horses first time out this season, especially on the all-weather. Coming to think about it, I just don't typically back anything on the all-weather...