RussP Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 4.50 Doncaster There's now a non runner leaving us with 11 to sort through for this Class 4, 1m handicap. First thing to look for is a weak favourite and I think we've got one here in top weight Derulo. As with the 2nd fav Thornaby Nash, both animals have been raised in mark without winning lto. That's enough for me to bypass. Teds Brother (8/1 William Hill) - I backed this one last week when it was taken out at Newcastle but most things still stand. Is steadily coming down the weights and is now racing off 66, a mark lower than his last 3 wins. Goes well at this track with 2 wins from 6 starts. I worry a little over the class ceiling in that its never won in a Class 4 but this is a poor event for the grade as only 1 horse (rated 77) stops this being a Class 5 anyway. Has never won first time up or over any distance other than 7f or 1m. Won off 72 last season but anything above that has proved troublesome. Off just 66 today. This season, he needed his reappearance as always and then has recorded 2 decent efforts. The first, when 4th of 7 off 2lb lower, was a good run considering he was very keen early doors and didn't get a clear run at a crucial point. Then he was 7th of 15 off the same mark, running much better than finishing position suggests as he was drawn badly and race wasn't run to suit (held up when prominent types held sway). nterestingly, that run when 7th has turned out fantastically; the horses that finished 2nd, 3rd, 5th have run 4 times since between them and won them all. The one finishing 14th also won its only race since and only 2 others have run again (the 8th and 9th), and finished 4th and 2nd. So the form of that race is 7 runs since, 5 wins, a 2nd and a 4th!!! Both of those runs were in this grade. Will absolutely love the ground that has now turned soft and the firm ground was apparently the reason for its withdrawal. Has so much in his favour and should go well with a proper jockey now on top. DanV89 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 415 Doncaster: Eccleston 4/1 (Bet365/Skybet) Eccleston use to be with Richard Fahey and then went and won on his first start for David O'Meara. He gets a 3lb penalty for that which is fair enough and i don't think that will stop him here. He gets his conditions and has won at Donny before so all looks set for a big run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 14, 2015 Author Share Posted June 14, 2015 4.15 Doncaster Class 3 6f handicap with 11 runners. There are 4 apparent stand out contenders but I think there are holes to be picked in each of them. Eccleston could easily trot up here after an impressive win at Haydock lto but up 3lb and I suspect that, whilst trip is the same, it may struggle to get home on this much softer ground whilst 4th place that day, Canyari, would prefer it a bit quicker. Mississippi won narrowly lto, is raised 3lb and rates a danger but that race panned out well and this looks a bit tougher. Exchequer is well fancied, especially with trainer / jockey combo but trip & ground are wrong to me. I prefer one of the outsiders. Flyman (12/1 Bet365) - You may need a bit of imagination for this, especially being the apparent stable 2nd string but there's lot to recommend it today. Firstly, last win was off 1lb higher than this 12 months ago. The thing for me is that this one is best in Class 3 (avoid Class 2), over 6f and on soft ground. Basically, the condition it gets here. Since winning under those conditions off 90, it has raced 5 times running poorly each time but definite reasons why. Last 3 runs of last year were under the wrong conditions; Class 2, marks of 98 & 96, 7f and firmish ground were all contributory factors. Moved stables to a yard that thrives with new horses and has had 2 disappointing runs on the face of it. First time up, finished midfield off 94 (5lb higher than today) but ground was unsuitably quick and it was in Class 2. Then raced on good to soft in this grade off 92 and a better run was expected but the trip on a stiff track (7f) was wrong and the race wasn't run to suit. There was no pace on, which is unlikely here, prompting the horse to take a keen hold and then looked outpaced and was badly positioned when it turned into a sprint. Additionally, the headgear comes off today which may spark a revival. Finally, I'm happy with the jockey booking. The trainer/jockey is 2 from 5 in 2015 having only ridden 3 horses for the yard. Has also finished placed with 2 of the others and the prices have ranged from 5/1 to 16/1 so it's not just a case of riding well on favourites. I'm very hopeful of it causing a surprise in a decent little race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 still wrestlin with new browser ..eek 415 donc canyari 98.77 eccleston 98.71 value bet here is canyari ew ...he has close collateral form with eccleston and is rated to almost dead heat that one yet is available at 6/1 ....could back both at odds but safe bet is ew canyari 3 pts ew 6/1 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 4.00 sal absolutely so 99.13 minalisa 98 71 justineo 98.69 on paper absolutely so is four lengths superior to these but racing never that easy ....but ill try a big bet and stake boost carryover to ascot tues if it wins absolutely so 10 pts win evs skybet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 4.00 sal absolutely so 99.13 minalisa 98 71 justineo 98.69 on paper absolutely so is four lengths superior to these but racing never that easy ....but ill try a big bet and stake boost carryover to ascot tues if it wins absolutely so 10 pts win evs skybet wins nicely ....nice stake money for ascot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 still wrestlin with new browser ..eek 415 donc canyari ... 98.77 eccleston 98.71 value bet here is canyari ew ...he has close collateral form with eccleston and is rated to almost dead heat that one yet is available at 6/1 ....could back both at odds but safe bet is ew canyari 3 pts ew 6/1 bet365 canyari wins sam bell excellent jockey cl aimer .one to watch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 wins nicely ....nice stake money for ascot doubling up at ascot using this kings stand ratings tues muthmir 99.56 jack dexter 99.31 pearl secret 99.23 shamal wind 99.23 jack dexter looks good ew value and is tempting but for win purposes this looks muthmirs for the taking ....has done everything right and last run was very fast putting him spot on here ....ive got 20 pts to carry over so ill take the 5/1 with corals and get the meet off with a bang ...hopefully ..lol muthmir 10 pts ew 5/1 corals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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