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antmusker

Copa America 2015

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Quarter final 2 preview: 4pts Peru to beat Bolivia Evs Skybet Peru might not have lit this tournament up like they might have been expected to with the quality of their main three players but they were so unlucky not to get something out of Brazil and contained a strong Colombia side so I expect them to contain Bolivia’s attacking exploits and with the quality they have in the forward areas they should have enough to get this one done inside the 90 minutes. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/bolivia-vs-peru-betting-tournament-underdogs-battle-for-a-spot-in-the-semis
Two weakest teams of all the quarter-finalists, two neighboring countries that played a draw in the last four mutually meetings. Both sides have new coaches starting this year, so that the players are not yet fully adapted to the new system. Bolivia have fewer good players, but it should be noted that they will be more rested than their opponent that must play without two regular midfielders through suspension. I wouldn't be surprised if Peru don't win here, no bet for me.

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Copa America: Bolivia- Peru Bolivia have conceded seven goals in their last three halves of football at the Copa and whilst they one won of those games, it might be that they are reverting to type and have remembered just how poor they are and are supposed to be away from home ! We spoke about this ahead of their opener with Mexico......... "I mentioned yesterday how El Tri are seemingly prioritising their Gold Cup campaign, which begins in less that four weeks time, they are honouring their CONCACAF obligations and the fact that their opening game is in Chicago, which houses the second largest population of Mexican-born immigrants in the US, is probably also a deciding factor. They have left a host of key players, including Chicharito, Guardado, Giovani dos Santos, Carlos Vela. plus several others at home and this is very much a B team, despite anything to the contrary that controversial coach Miguel Herrera might say. He is very stubborn and seems certian to stick with his preferred formation (basically a 5-3-2) without the players he needs to do it justice ! If they were playing anyone else today apart from Bolivia, I would like to oppose them, but their opponents are not very good away from their high altitude homeland and have not won an away game in over eight years and the one before that was four years earlier, so a defeat of South Africa in a friendly , where they were gifted a winning goal and opponents were denied an equaliser when the referee blew his whistle for half time with the ball en route to the net, to show for 12 years and some 50 away/neutral starts ! Mexico are below strength, have other priorities and will play a formation that will not suit personnel, Bolivia are not very good and cannot win outside their own country ! If we had to bet, I would have to suggest the draw @ circa 4.33 and I might take a (very) little on that just to keep me awake !" They played out a 0-0 draw there and were then 3-0 up at the break against an Ecuador team who simply did not show up at these championships until it was time to go home ! They won that 3-2, but Ecuador missed a penalty and hit the woodwork and I doubt that Bolivia would have progressed from any other group. Peru have looked very solid keeping Colombia and Venuezuela scoreless and Brazil at 1-1 (after two early goals) for 87 minutes. They do not have any real weaknesses, look good in defence and midfield and have three veteran forwards on Paolo Guerro, Jefferson Farfan and Claudion Pizarro who are all the wrong side of thirty and playing in what might be their last major championship, the trio have all played at the top level in Europe and have 60 international goals between them and can find a goal and one might be enough, to edge this. Peru feel they are improving and have more to offer and I would have been very keen on them for this if they were not without captain Carlos Labatón and defensive midfielder Josepmir Ballón, who are both suspended. That kind of tempers enthusiasm, but they are in their 7th straight Copa quarter final and will be looking to at least equal their 2011 3rd place finish. They were not adventurous enough in the semi final against Uruguay and I feel they will have learned from that. Peru -0.5 ball 1.93 asian line/Sportmarket.

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Peru v Bolivia: >60 bookings points at 17/10 with PP Spreads have this in for around 60 points, on which basis I'd make the correct price more like 2.45, so a theoretical edge of over 10%. Ref Roldan isn't an out and out card machine but will show them when the occasion demands in competitive games. Worth an interest in my tracking of potential value bookings bets, hopefully will add another winner.

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Colombia are missing their two defensive mids in Sanchez and Valencia. Sanchez in particular has been credited with nullifying Neymar in their 1-0 win and also a while ago given the plaudits for keeping Messi quiet in a 0-0 with Argentina. Important part of the pitch and may swing the run of play heavily in favour of the Argies who have been threatening to hit form in the tourney.

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Peru v Bolivia: >60 bookings points at 17/10 with PP
That obliged, with 8 yellows shown. Tonight I've gone for >70 bookings points in Argentina v Colombia at 9/5 with PP. The selection would have been 85/40 for >75 with SJ but it was cut to 2/1. Preference was more due to the bigger price as there wasn't much difference in the perceived edge, but the 9/5 is now easily the better option. Price wrong based on a spread expectation of around 67 points (more like 8/5 for me), looks reasonable based on recent head to heads but only fair to say ref stats are neutral at best. Enough value for a small bet at least, in my opinion.

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Bookings bet won again, though needed a very late yellow to get it over the line, which wouldn't have seemed likely at half time when 6 had already been shown. In terms of qualifying selections (fixed odds prices offering a minimum 5% edge when compared to the spreads) there have been 6 now with 3 winners at odds of 9/5 twice and 17/10. The three shortest priced bets have won but you'd still be +2.3 points to 1point level stakes with an ROI of 38.3%. Will see if there are any more bets up to the final and update accordingly.

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Semi final 1 preview: 4pts Chile vs Peru - Over 2.5 goals 7/5 Betfair Instead I’ll look to the goals market where over 2.5 goals looks a big price. These two have probably been the two most attacking sides in the competition and both have shown vulnerabilities in defence. Four of their last five meetings have gone over 2.5 goals and we could well be set for another one here. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/chile-vs-peru-betting-hosts-chile-look-to-progress-to-their-own-final

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Semi final 2 preview: 4pts Argentina vs Paraguay - Over 2.5 goals 29/20 BetVictor The last four matches between the two have contained at least four goals which is an indication that these two often produce fireworks and at strong odds against over 2.5 goals could well be the way to go here. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/argentina-vs-paraguay-betting-a-place-in-the-final-awaits-two-competitive-sides

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How did Argentina not win in normal time!? Thought Colombia were garbage.
I don't believe that Colombia were a garbage. You must have seen their World Cup 2014 performance and how James Rodriguez becomes an instant star. Anyway at Copa America 2015 obviously it was a stiff match Argentina have their Messi, Aguero, Tevez and Di Maria.While Colombia continue to replicate their World Cup run.

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Copa America: Chile- Peru With Brazil, who have always been a bogey team for Chile out of the competition and Argentina facing a rematch with a Paraguayan side they struggled with at the group stage tomorrow, things are starting to look hugely promising for the hosts, but with that comes added pressure, the level of expectation is through the roof and now, failure to reach the final will be seen as a bit of a disaster and if Peru can hang on in there early, they can use that to their advantage. Peru have looked very well organised at these championships and were comfortable quarter final winners over Bolivia, ahead of which I wrote ......Peru have looked very solid keeping Colombia and Venuezuela scoreless and Brazil at 1-1 (after two early goals) for 87 minutes. They do not have any real weaknesses, look good in defence and midfield and have three veteran forwards in Paolo Guerrero, Jefferson Farfan and Claudio Pizarro who are all the wrong side of thirty and playing in what might be their last major championship, the trio have all played at the top level in Europe and have 60 international goals between them and can find a goal and one might be enough, to edge this. Peru feel they are improving and have more to offer and I would have been very keen on them for this if they were not without captain Carlos Labatón and defensive midfielder Josepmir Ballón, who are both suspended. That kind of tempers enthusiasm, but they are in their 7th straight Copa quarter final and will be looking to at least equal their 2011 3rd place finish. They were not adventurous enough in the semi final against Uruguay that year and I feel they will have learned from that. They were 2-0 up inside the first quarter of the game, had a whopping 27 attempts on goal (hitting the woodwork twice) and Paolo Guerrero scored a hat trick, before Bolivia made the scoreline respectable with a late consolation goal, it was an impressive victory and this is a team on the up and improving game upon game. Chilean centre back Gonzalo Jara is suspended after putting his finger where it should not be put (!) and the hosts conceded two goals at home to the US in the only start he has missed in 2015. Mexico are the only team who have really taken the game to Chile in this competition and they scored three without the cream of their offensive talent and if Peru are prepared to have a go, I can definitely see a goal or maybe two for them and I am very keen on the "away" team with the handicap start. Peru use both flanks well and could create havoc in the box, with a big aerial advantage over Chile and I have to take ..............1 Peru +1 ball 2.03 asian line/Sportmarket. Gary Medel and David Pizzaro ended the Bolivia game in the middle of the backline for Chile, they are each 1.71m tall, Guerrero and Claudio Pizzaro are both 1.84m + and this could be a real route to goal for Peru, who are a very tempting 6.5-7.0 general quote to score twice ("over" 1.5 goals) , how about something small on that.....

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Persuaded by the prospect of goals in this game, largely inspired by what others have written, I was surprised to see total goals as low as 2.4 to buy with SPIN this morning (2.6 elsewhere) so I decided to buy. Looks like the world and his wife agree as that's up to 2.6 now and as high as 2.8 elsewhere. Over 2.5 goals is also 11/10 best and odds on in plenty of places so it looks like the early birds have hoovered up the value here. Just need it to translate into a win now!

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I think there's a value bookings bet in the Argentina v Paraguay game, >80 points at 12/5 with Sportingbet. Spreads have this in for around 71 points and I'd say the odds on it going >80 should be no more than 11/5, if that. Probably need a red card to get over that line but that's less than 2/1 for this game.

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3rd place preview: 4pts Peru vs Paraguay - Over 3 goals 2.05 BetVictor Usually these sort of matches are always open with both sides looking to put on a show with little to play for and the way Peru play anyway I’m pretty confident that will be the case here too. The last two third placed playoffs have finished 3-1 and 4-1 and I’m expecting another high scoring match here. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/peru-vs-paraguay-betting-third-place-up-for-grabs-for-these-two

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Final preview: 5pts Both teams to score 10/11 Coral This may be a final but the way the two sides set up and play I think it will be quite open and I would be surprised if they don’t both find the net before the final whistle goes. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/chile-vs-argentina-betting-copa-america-title-on-the-line-in-santiago

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Copa America: Paraguay - Peru These 3rd and 4th place playoff games almost always produce goals, it is easy to see why, there is usually one side a little more motivated than the other and both can easily let intensity slip for what seems largely a meaningless fixture at the end of a long competition, coming after a gruelling domestic campaign for many. I do suspect that both would have taken 3rd or 4th spot if you had offered it to them pre tournament , so maybe we will see both going for it this evening, but each suffered a very disappointing semi final result, albeit for different reasons and they could let things slide if falling behind. However, both teams have players, Lucas Barrios of Paraguay and Peru's Paolo Guerrero who have a good chance to become the competition top scorer, that would be an honour both individually and for the nation and we can expect that to motivate both offensively. Paraguay are hard hit by injury and could be missing four players who started the semi final against Argentina in Roque Santa Cruz, Derlis Gonzalez, Bruno Valdez and Nelson Valdez, which would weaken them up top and especially on the right flank. Peru will be without suspended Carlos Zambrano from the backline and did have to play 60 minutes down to ten men after his sending off against the hosts, but that is counter balanced by having an extra day's rest and recovery time. Peru have impressed me more, I think they have a little more about them, look stronger defensively and at the ned of the day, Paraguay have only beaten Jamaica inside 90 minutes at the Copa and no team other team in nine starts and I have to suggest ....... Peru -0.25 2.12 asian line/Sportmarket.

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3rd place preview: 4pts Peru vs Paraguay - Over 3 goals 2.05 BetVictor Usually these sort of matches are always open with both sides looking to put on a show with little to play for and the way Peru play anyway I’m pretty confident that will be the case here too. The last two third placed playoffs have finished 3-1 and 4-1 and I’m expecting another high scoring match here.
Totally sold on the prospect of goals in this one, spreads have it in for over 3 goals, all the reasoning I've seen seems sound enough and stats supportive. Rare for me to bet this close to evens but I've followed on the over 3 bet at 11/10 with 888. If you do want to up the risk/reward ratio, they offer 17/10 for >3.5 goals which is what I'd otherwise have gone for. Bookings may be of interest as I'm not sure the nature of the fixture ("only" for 3rd place) justifies the lower than normal quote. Will post any bet as soon as I make my mind up!

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Bookings may be of interest as I'm not sure the nature of the fixture ("only" for 3rd place) justifies the lower than normal quote. Will post any bet as soon as I make my mind up!
Bought bookings at 57 with Star Spreads and backed >30 points in the 1st half at 9/2 with PP The latter of those is another example of a fixed odds bet that offers good value if the spreads are right in their assessment of the game (it would be around 4.75 based on an expectation of 21 points in the 1st half). Would have won in 2 of Peru's 5 games so far and 1 of Paraguay's. Today's ref (Orozco) handled the Peru v Venezuela game where 45 of the 65 points came before the interval. Conversely, I can't find a way of backing total bookings in the match that appears to offer better value than a straight buy at 57. It might seem a bit perverse when the teams' average are only 54 and 52 but the ref's average in 4 Copa games is 60, the same as the last 4 meetings between the teams (2 friendlies and 2 World Cup qualifiers). Ref's average in Internationals since the 2011 Copa is 62.86 points. The last 4 3rd place games have seen make ups of 75, 75, 60 and 60 (average 67.5) which compares favourably to the last 4 finals (60, 70, 60 and 100, average 72). Best fixed odds options if you're inclined to get involved that way are 11/10 for >5.5 cards with 365 or 17/10 for >60 points with PP. 2-3 cards in the 1st half at 23/20 with Hills merits a mention as it would have landed in 9/10 of the games these 2 teams have played so far.

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And so to the final, with hosts Chile taking on Argentina. In terms of potential value bookings bets the spreads and fixed odds markets are fairly in line with each other. Bookings can be bought at 66 and the best fixed odds options look no more than fair on that basis (>70 at 9/5 with PP and >75 at 2/1 with SJ). I've had a small interest in the following bets which seem counter intuitive but strike me as being over priced. Chile total bookings 0-1 at 19/4 and Argentina total bookings 0-1 at 3/1, both with SJ. Anything more than a single yellow card for each team means both bets are losers but, based on both teams being in for just over 30 points on the spreads, neither of those prices should arguably be more than 11/5. The much bigger price for Chile is certainly surprising. I'm always happier betting high on cards rather than low (perhaps against my own best interests) and have no idea if these prices are typical of how this market is usually priced but, for small stakes, I can't pass up prices that I think are this far out of line.

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Copa America final : Argentina to win the match 5/4 paddy power Argentina to win 3-1 sky bet Lionel Messi to score and Argentina to win 11/4 sky bet Either team to win on penalties 9/2 sky bet Lionel Messi to score Arturo Vidal to be carded and Argentina to lift the trophy 4/1 sky bet Arturo Vidal and Javier Mascherano to be carded 9/2 sky bet Gary Medal and Javier Mascherano to be carded 9/2 sky bet Gary Medal and Arturo Vidal to be carded 7/2 sky bet Im looking forward to this match as i think we will see open attacking play i do fancy goals in the match but i also think it could go to penalties because Chile is a tough game I feel Chile i not going to have much of the ball so there could a few nasty challenges so i expect quite a few bookings

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My bets on today: last two bets just to cover possible losses if Argentina won't win after 90 minutes.

soc.gifCopa America 07/04 23:00 Chile - Argentina Over 2.25 (Over Under-Full Time Excluding Overtime) 1.89 5/10 SBOBET b_trackit_small.png
soc.gifOther 07/04 23:00 Chile - Argentina Sergio Leonel Agüero (Anytime Goalscorer-Full Time Excluding Overtime) 2.63 2/10 Bet365 b_trackit_small.png
soc.gifOther 07/04 23:00 Chile - Argentina Lionel Andres Messi (Last Goalscorer-Full Time Excluding Overtime) 5 1/10 Ladbrokes b_trackit_small.png
soc.gifCopa America 07/04 23:00 Chile - Argentina Away -0.25 (Match) 2.02 10/10 PINNACLE b_trackit_small.png
soc.gifCopa America 07/04 23:00 Chile - Argentina Argentina -1.25 (Asian Handicap-Full Time Excluding Overtime) 4.1 1/10 Bet365 b_trackit_small.png
soc.gifCopa America 07/04 23:00 Chile - Argentina Argentina Over 1.5 (Team Score Over Under-Full Time Excluding Overtime) 2.5 1/10 Coral b_trackit_small.png
soc.gifCopa America 07/04 23:00 Chile - Argentina Away & Over 2.5 (Matchbet And Totals-Full Time Excluding Overtime) 3.75 1/10 Bet365 b_trackit_small.png
soc.gifCopa America 07/04 23:00 Chile - Argentina Argentina In Extra Time (Method Of Victory-Full Time Including Overtime) 9 1/10 Ladbrokes b_trackit_small.png
soc.gifCopa America 07/04 23:00 Chile - Argentina Argentina On Penalties (Method Of Victory-Full Time Including Overtime) 11 1/10 Ladbrokes

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