Jump to content
Announcements
** September Nap's Competition Result: 1st Boulder5111, 2nd Craig Bluenose, 3rd Barnsley Chop, 4th Zilzalian KO Cup: Bathtime For Rupert, Most Winners: Waggy**
**September Poker League Result : 1st Kevsul £75, 2nd Gemic £45, 3rd Barry John £30**
** Last Man Standing Result - Ivailobg/Cookro split 1st £125 / Larking22 1st Consolation Cup £50 **

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 102
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Colombia are missing their two defensive mids in Sanchez and Valencia. Sanchez in particular has been credited with nullifying Neymar in their 1-0 win and also a while ago given the plaudits for keepi

Copa America: Chile- Bolivia We have spoken already this week about how close almost every match at the Copa America has been , eight matches have been decided by a single goal, three have bee

Final preview: 5pts Both teams to score 10/11 Coral This may be a final but the way the two sides set up and play I think it will be quite open and I would be surprised if they don’t both find the

3rd place preview: 4pts Peru vs Paraguay - Over 3 goals 2.05 BetVictor Usually these sort of matches are always open with both sides looking to put on a show with little to play for and the way Peru play anyway I’m pretty confident that will be the case here too. The last two third placed playoffs have finished 3-1 and 4-1 and I’m expecting another high scoring match here. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/peru-vs-paraguay-betting-third-place-up-for-grabs-for-these-two

Link to post
Share on other sites

Final preview: 5pts Both teams to score 10/11 Coral This may be a final but the way the two sides set up and play I think it will be quite open and I would be surprised if they don’t both find the net before the final whistle goes. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/chile-vs-argentina-betting-copa-america-title-on-the-line-in-santiago

Link to post
Share on other sites

Copa America: Paraguay - Peru These 3rd and 4th place playoff games almost always produce goals, it is easy to see why, there is usually one side a little more motivated than the other and both can easily let intensity slip for what seems largely a meaningless fixture at the end of a long competition, coming after a gruelling domestic campaign for many. I do suspect that both would have taken 3rd or 4th spot if you had offered it to them pre tournament , so maybe we will see both going for it this evening, but each suffered a very disappointing semi final result, albeit for different reasons and they could let things slide if falling behind. However, both teams have players, Lucas Barrios of Paraguay and Peru's Paolo Guerrero who have a good chance to become the competition top scorer, that would be an honour both individually and for the nation and we can expect that to motivate both offensively. Paraguay are hard hit by injury and could be missing four players who started the semi final against Argentina in Roque Santa Cruz, Derlis Gonzalez, Bruno Valdez and Nelson Valdez, which would weaken them up top and especially on the right flank. Peru will be without suspended Carlos Zambrano from the backline and did have to play 60 minutes down to ten men after his sending off against the hosts, but that is counter balanced by having an extra day's rest and recovery time. Peru have impressed me more, I think they have a little more about them, look stronger defensively and at the ned of the day, Paraguay have only beaten Jamaica inside 90 minutes at the Copa and no team other team in nine starts and I have to suggest ....... Peru -0.25 2.12 asian line/Sportmarket.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3rd place preview: 4pts Peru vs Paraguay - Over 3 goals 2.05 BetVictor Usually these sort of matches are always open with both sides looking to put on a show with little to play for and the way Peru play anyway I’m pretty confident that will be the case here too. The last two third placed playoffs have finished 3-1 and 4-1 and I’m expecting another high scoring match here.
Totally sold on the prospect of goals in this one, spreads have it in for over 3 goals, all the reasoning I've seen seems sound enough and stats supportive. Rare for me to bet this close to evens but I've followed on the over 3 bet at 11/10 with 888. If you do want to up the risk/reward ratio, they offer 17/10 for >3.5 goals which is what I'd otherwise have gone for. Bookings may be of interest as I'm not sure the nature of the fixture ("only" for 3rd place) justifies the lower than normal quote. Will post any bet as soon as I make my mind up!
Link to post
Share on other sites
Bookings may be of interest as I'm not sure the nature of the fixture ("only" for 3rd place) justifies the lower than normal quote. Will post any bet as soon as I make my mind up!
Bought bookings at 57 with Star Spreads and backed >30 points in the 1st half at 9/2 with PP The latter of those is another example of a fixed odds bet that offers good value if the spreads are right in their assessment of the game (it would be around 4.75 based on an expectation of 21 points in the 1st half). Would have won in 2 of Peru's 5 games so far and 1 of Paraguay's. Today's ref (Orozco) handled the Peru v Venezuela game where 45 of the 65 points came before the interval. Conversely, I can't find a way of backing total bookings in the match that appears to offer better value than a straight buy at 57. It might seem a bit perverse when the teams' average are only 54 and 52 but the ref's average in 4 Copa games is 60, the same as the last 4 meetings between the teams (2 friendlies and 2 World Cup qualifiers). Ref's average in Internationals since the 2011 Copa is 62.86 points. The last 4 3rd place games have seen make ups of 75, 75, 60 and 60 (average 67.5) which compares favourably to the last 4 finals (60, 70, 60 and 100, average 72). Best fixed odds options if you're inclined to get involved that way are 11/10 for >5.5 cards with 365 or 17/10 for >60 points with PP. 2-3 cards in the 1st half at 23/20 with Hills merits a mention as it would have landed in 9/10 of the games these 2 teams have played so far.
Link to post
Share on other sites

And so to the final, with hosts Chile taking on Argentina. In terms of potential value bookings bets the spreads and fixed odds markets are fairly in line with each other. Bookings can be bought at 66 and the best fixed odds options look no more than fair on that basis (>70 at 9/5 with PP and >75 at 2/1 with SJ). I've had a small interest in the following bets which seem counter intuitive but strike me as being over priced. Chile total bookings 0-1 at 19/4 and Argentina total bookings 0-1 at 3/1, both with SJ. Anything more than a single yellow card for each team means both bets are losers but, based on both teams being in for just over 30 points on the spreads, neither of those prices should arguably be more than 11/5. The much bigger price for Chile is certainly surprising. I'm always happier betting high on cards rather than low (perhaps against my own best interests) and have no idea if these prices are typical of how this market is usually priced but, for small stakes, I can't pass up prices that I think are this far out of line.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Copa America final : Argentina to win the match 5/4 paddy power Argentina to win 3-1 sky bet Lionel Messi to score and Argentina to win 11/4 sky bet Either team to win on penalties 9/2 sky bet Lionel Messi to score Arturo Vidal to be carded and Argentina to lift the trophy 4/1 sky bet Arturo Vidal and Javier Mascherano to be carded 9/2 sky bet Gary Medal and Javier Mascherano to be carded 9/2 sky bet Gary Medal and Arturo Vidal to be carded 7/2 sky bet Im looking forward to this match as i think we will see open attacking play i do fancy goals in the match but i also think it could go to penalties because Chile is a tough game I feel Chile i not going to have much of the ball so there could a few nasty challenges so i expect quite a few bookings

Link to post
Share on other sites

My bets on today: last two bets just to cover possible losses if Argentina won't win after 90 minutes. [TABLE=class: topmenu innertable, border: 0, cellpadding: 2, cellspacing: 0] [TR=bgcolor: transparent] [TD]soc.gifCopa America[/TD] [TD]07/04 23:00[/TD] [TD]Chile - Argentina[/TD] [TD]Over 2.25 (Over Under-Full Time Excluding Overtime)[/TD] [TD]1.89[/TD] [TD=align: right]5/10[/TD] [TD]SBOBET[/TD] [TD]b_trackit_small.png [/TD] [/TR] [TR=bgcolor: transparent] [TD]soc.gifOther[/TD] [TD]07/04 23:00[/TD] [TD]Chile - Argentina[/TD] [TD]Sergio Leonel Agüero (Anytime Goalscorer-Full Time Excluding Overtime)[/TD] [TD]2.63[/TD] [TD=align: right]2/10[/TD] [TD]Bet365[/TD] [TD]b_trackit_small.png [/TD] [/TR] [TR=bgcolor: transparent] [TD]soc.gifOther[/TD] [TD]07/04 23:00[/TD] [TD]Chile - Argentina[/TD] [TD]Lionel Andres Messi (Last Goalscorer-Full Time Excluding Overtime)[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]1/10[/TD] [TD]Ladbrokes[/TD] [TD]b_trackit_small.png [/TD] [/TR] [TR=bgcolor: transparent] [TD]soc.gifCopa America[/TD] [TD]07/04 23:00[/TD] [TD]Chile - Argentina[/TD] [TD]Away -0.25 (Match)[/TD] [TD]2.02[/TD] [TD=align: right]10/10[/TD] [TD]PINNACLE[/TD] [TD]b_trackit_small.png [/TD] [/TR] [TR=bgcolor: transparent] [TD]soc.gifCopa America[/TD] [TD]07/04 23:00[/TD] [TD]Chile - Argentina[/TD] [TD]Argentina -1.25 (Asian Handicap-Full Time Excluding Overtime)[/TD] [TD]4.1[/TD] [TD=align: right]1/10[/TD] [TD]Bet365[/TD] [TD]b_trackit_small.png [/TD] [/TR] [TR=bgcolor: transparent] [TD]soc.gifCopa America[/TD] [TD]07/04 23:00[/TD] [TD]Chile - Argentina[/TD] [TD]Argentina Over 1.5 (Team Score Over Under-Full Time Excluding Overtime)[/TD] [TD]2.5[/TD] [TD=align: right]1/10[/TD] [TD]Coral[/TD] [TD]b_trackit_small.png [/TD] [/TR] [TR=bgcolor: transparent] [TD]soc.gifCopa America[/TD] [TD]07/04 23:00[/TD] [TD]Chile - Argentina[/TD] [TD]Away & Over 2.5 (Matchbet And Totals-Full Time Excluding Overtime)[/TD] [TD]3.75[/TD] [TD=align: right]1/10[/TD] [TD]Bet365[/TD] [TD]b_trackit_small.png [/TD] [/TR] [TR=bgcolor: transparent] [TD]soc.gifCopa America[/TD] [TD]07/04 23:00[/TD] [TD]Chile - Argentina[/TD] [TD]Argentina In Extra Time (Method Of Victory-Full Time Including Overtime)[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD=align: right]1/10[/TD] [TD]Ladbrokes[/TD] [TD]b_trackit_small.png [/TD] [/TR] [TR=bgcolor: transparent] [TD]soc.gifCopa America[/TD] [TD]07/04 23:00[/TD] [TD]Chile - Argentina[/TD] [TD]Argentina On Penalties (Method Of Victory-Full Time Including Overtime)[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD=align: right]1/10[/TD] [TD]Ladbrokes[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

Link to post
Share on other sites

Backed 2 of Skybet's "requestabet" specials that look a bit generous to me (in among all the badly priced, multi-component propositions people seem to ask for). Any sub to score at 6/1 and any sub to be carded at 2/1. Rare to see the former offered at more than 3/1, latter would be even money on the small sample I've looked at (5/10 games the teams have played so far, 2 out of the last 4 Copa finals).

Link to post
Share on other sites
Copa America final : Argentina to win the match 5/4 paddy power Argentina to win 3-1 sky bet Lionel Messi to score and Argentina to win 11/4 sky bet Either team to win on penalties 9/2 sky bet :) Lionel Messi to score Arturo Vidal to be carded and Argentina to lift the trophy 4/1 sky bet Arturo Vidal and Javier Mascherano to be carded 9/2 sky bet Gary Medal and Javier Mascherano to be carded 9/2 sky bet :) Gary Medal and Arturo Vidal to be carded 7/2 sky bet Im looking forward to this match as i think we will see open attacking play i do fancy goals in the match but i also think it could go to penalties because Chile is a tough game I feel Chile i not going to have much of the ball so there could a few nasty challenges so i expect quite a few bookings
Unlucky with the bets but well done to Chile
Link to post
Share on other sites

Quick update on the bookings bets (fixed odds selections offering value based on the spreads prices). 3 winners from 10 selections for a 1.7 point loss to level stakes (yield -17%). Prior to last night's 2 losing "unders" picks, the 3 winners from 8 "overs" showed a profit of 0.3 points (+3.75%). Hardly conclusive, not least because several bets won or lost by a single card, but enough to convince me it might be worth pursuing next season.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...