harry_rag Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 4pts Brazil vs Uruguay - Over 2.5 goals 23/20 Coral] Is that a mythical match? ;) Favouring Chile's goals over the match outcome fortunately proved to be the right course of action last night; I would have expected only one result if you told me Chile had scored 3 times! I'm following you more directly this time, albeit still via the spreads. Bought total goals in Paraguay v Jamaica at 2.4 with Star Spreads Pleasantly surprised to be able to buy at a price that offers that much upside for 3 goals, obviously hoping for 4 or more to really justify favouring spreads over the straight fixed odds bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Also backed Barnes and Dawkins anytime for Jamaica at 6/1 and 13/2 with the Tote. The main goal threats for Jamaica if SPIN's opening goal minutes quotes are to be believed, those anytime prices look generous compared to those quotes and based on their stats (club mainly, as neither have many caps). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 4pts Argentina (-0.75AH) to beat Uruguay 1.83 BetVictor If that doesn’t focus Argentina’s mind and bring out their best performance then nothing will. Uruguay looked one paced and laboured against Jamaica and they shouldn’t be much of a threat in this match unless Argentina allow them to be but I’m expecting Argentina to be at their best here and if they are they should win comfortably. At the risk of starting to look like some sort of stalker, it's good to read your previews and find you going for bets that are in accordance with my initial thoughts (and articulating them far better than I tend to). For me it's a case of for Chile last night, read Argentina tonight. I strongly fancy them to rise to the occasion but would prefer to bet on their goals rather than the outcome. The difference tonight is that I believe fixed odds is better value than the spreads (their goal rush being 21 to buy). With that in mind, I'm on: >2.5 Argentina goals at 3/1 and >3.5 Argentina goals at 10/1 Both with Coral, stake ratio roughly 3:1 in favour of the shorter priced selection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Thursday/Friday preview: 3pts Peru vs Venezuela - Draw 23/10 Coral I can’t quite work out whether a draw suits both here or suits neither but however it fits with both sides it is the result I can see happening. I think a draw would be a good result for Venezuela and it probably isn’t a bad result for Peru either given that they have a beatable Colombia side in their final match. I’m expecting a tight sort of game here and I like the draw come the end. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/peru-vs-venezuela-betting-venezuela-go-in-search-of-a-quarter-final-place Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Brazil v Colombia: Neymar to score and Brazil to win at 3/1 with Hills A couple of other firms offering the same price, including Skybet whose earlier promotion of it as an enhanced offer first caught my eye. Instinctively felt like a decent price, I make it that Neymar has scored in 20 of his last 40 appearances for Brazil and that they've won 18 of those games, drawing the other 2. I just think there's a better than 25% chance of Neymar scoring and Brazil going on to win the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodgate Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Brazil v Colombia: Neymar to score and Brazil to win at 3/1 with Hills A couple of other firms offering the same price, including Skybet whose earlier promotion of it as an enhanced offer first caught my eye. Instinctively felt like a decent price, I make it that Neymar has scored in 20 of his last 40 appearances for Brazil and that they've won 18 of those games, drawing the other 2. I just think there's a better than 25% chance of Neymar scoring and Brazil going on to win the game. No card betting for you today ? I think we will see 5-7 cards in this game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Friday previews: 4pts Mexico vs Ecuador - Over 2.5 goals Evs Bet365 I fancy goals in this match. Ecuador have nothing to lose and have shown they can’t defend even if they did have something to protect whereas Mexico will want to win and win well to have a chance of moving up the group. It isn’t beyond possibilities that they win the group yet so they will be after a goal or two along the way as well but on the balance of the way Ecuador matches have gone so far I’m reasonably confident we’ll get three goals here and possibly a few more besides. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/mexico-vs-ecuador-betting-mexico-go-in-search-of-unexpected-quarter-final-place 4pts Chile (-1) to beat Bolivia Evs Skybet The big problem I have for Bolivia is how do they contain and stop this Chile attacking line. They struggled against a moderate Ecuador side so how they are going to fare defensively against a rampant Chile attack remains to be seen. I’m not so sure they will see enough of the ball to pose the threat going the other way that they did against Ecuador and Chile certainly won’t make the daft defensive mistakes Ecuador did against Bolivia so I expect nothing but a comfortable Chile win here. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/chile-vs-bolivia-betting-top-spot-in-group-a-on-the-line-in-santiago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinningAdvice Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 For Group A Chile and Bolivia turned out to be a surprise I mean Bolivia, because for Chile no doubt they can make advance to the next phase. Group B- with Suarez missing in action hoping they can still advance, Aguero meanwhile turned out to be the man for Argentina aside from Messi, though I'm rooting Argentina and Uruguay. However there is something in Paraguay they are showing edge. Unfortunately Brazil lost to Colombia 0-1, added pressure to Brazil, Neymar gets a red card. But I'm hoping it's Brazil and Colombia who will advance on the next stage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alin04 Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Neymar should learn something from Messi. In any moment in the game(Primera Division, Champions League, World Cup, Copa America) you should be calm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 No card betting for you today ? I think we will see 5-7 cards in this game. Well done if you bet on it; 4 yellows and 2 reds for a bookings points make up of 90. No bet for me as the bookies pretty much had the same expectation as you so none of the prices made any appeal. As it was, 4 yellows in the first half would have put a rosy complexion on things but you would have spent most of the second half thinking you'd done your money until those 2 red cards arrived deep into stoppage time. Sorry - ignore the above. The red cards were after the final whistle so don't count for betting purposes! Make up was 4 yellow cards/40 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Saturday previews: 4pts Uruguay vs Paraguay - Under 2 goals 1.97 BetVictor I don’t see this being a free scoring classic. Matches in this group have been very tight even when Jamaica have been involved and this is all set to be just as tight for me. Uruguay are struggling in front of goal but there are no struggles when it comes to defending, they’re doing fine there. Paraguay are competent defensively and nothing special going forward so under 2 goals looks tasty enough for me. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/uruguay-vs-paraguay-betting-quarter-final-spots-up-for-grabs-in-group-b-finale 5pts Argentina to win to nil 7/10 BetVictor I toyed with taking Argentina on a handicap but for me the best bet is to take them to win to nil. Jamaica haven’t really looked like scoring in this tournament yet and they’re not going to get into many scoring positions in this match. I’m actually amazed you can get 7/10 on Argentina winning to nil but I’ll happily jump all over it. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/argentina-vs-jamaica-betting-argentina-will-be-looking-to-secure-top-spot-in-style Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clubgowi Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Copa America: Chile- Bolivia We have spoken already this week about how close almost every match at the Copa America has been , eight matches have been decided by a single goal, three have been draws and there has been a single two goal win and even that should have been a closer result. It is hard to see that suddenly changing in this game with so much at stake and with the better and home team mindful of much bigger games ahead, a long tournament and able to get what they desire from the game without "wasting" too much energy. A win would see Chile top the group, but a point would be enough , unless Mexico record at least a two goal win. Bolivia have the same criteria more or less, they will win the group with all three points, but probably know that is beyond them, a point would ensure second and mean avoiding Argentina in the last eight , also, with four points in the bag, a one goal defeat would mean they would look solid for one of the two third places and that is their fail safe and means if they do fall behind, they will be keen not to concede a second and there would be no reason for Chile to push for it either. Bolivia +1.25 ball 2.20 asian line/Sportmarket. Incredibly, this match is played after the Mex-Ec ( see below) so the situation could change if one of the teams in the earlier game won big, but I am happy with the handicap start regardless. De Graaf and Masturbinho 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McNasara Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 I was gonna to agree with kevshat about over in Mexico v Ecuador game, but recent news suggests that Aldrete (who had been one of Mexico's best players over the first two games of the Copa America) won't be fit. There was more positive news for 36-year-old center-back Marquez, whose swift recovery from a hamstring injury should mean he is ready to face Ecuador. Captain Rafa Marquez has tournament experience that no other player under Herrera's command can boast and should prove a useful asset, so I gave up on over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masturbinho Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 I like the Copa America format in the last round of the group stage when the two matches kick-off at different times as opposed to the World Cup and Euro format when the matches in the last round of the group stage kick-off at once. It would be very silly to think that the teams that play the second match would "fix" a favourable result based on the result of the match that's played first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masturbinho Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 The last three official matches between Mexico and Ecuador have finished with a 2-1 for the Aztecas. I'll have a punt on a 2-1 for Mexico correct score along with the obvious Over 2.5 and BTTS as both teams need a win and are better in attack than in defense. Apparently Chile have no problems against their northern neighbours, having won their last six official head to head matches. A thing to note is that all of the six victories were with a two goal or bigger margin, including the notoriously tough visits to La Paz at an altitude of 3600m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Hallelujah! Just over a week's wait and we have the second incidence of a potentially worthwhile bookings bet based on the discrepancy between the spreads and fixed odds prices. Mexico v Ecuador: >60 bookings points at 3/1 with PP I make that a 3.7 shot for an edge of 8% and have had a small interest. 7/2 for the same bet in the Chile v Bolivia game may offer a touch of value but not the minimum 5% edge I'm looking for in the bets I'm tracking. That said, I've had a small bet on the double for >60 in both games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodgate Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Sounds like good bets to me Harry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Hit the bar unfortunately, exactly 60 points. The result doesn't do much for the prospect of cards in the later game so not inclined to back it as a single (so you can guess what will happen there). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodgate Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Made a cheeky bet on Medel and Chumacero to bet booked. Will be a tough match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Sunday previews: 4pts Colombia vs Peru - Under 2.5 goals 8/11 Paddy Power Neither of these sides have impressed me going forward in this tournament and I think with the way the group is set up this is going to be a tight and tense match with not many goals if any at all. I guess the longer it goes the more Colombia will have to open up but it is rare they leave themselves exposed. I don’t see Peru being too adventurous given that a clean sheet puts them into the quarter finals so I’m happy to take under 2.5 goals here. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/colombia-vs-peru-betting-dramatic-final-game-for-both-sides-awaits-us 4pts Venezuela (+1AH) to beat Brazil 2.03 Ladbrokes With that in mind I’m going to take Venezuela on a handicap. They clearly know how to play Brazil and it should be a lot easier to play Brazil without Neymar. A draw suits Venezuela fine here especially as it near enough ensures they are into the knockout stages so I don’t see them being too ambitious in this match which should be enough to keep them nicely inside a handicap line. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/brazil-vs-venezuela-betting-brazil-look-to-compete-without-neymar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Made a cheeky bet on Medel and Chumacero to bet booked. Will be a tough match. Well done on the latter, I assume the odds were enough for a profit! He was one of the 3 players carded. So far, the 3 qualifying bookings bets I've posted have provided 1 winner at 9/5 and 2 losers at 10/3 and 3/1, both of which landed bang on the line. Small loss to level stakes, will carry on checking the remaining games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodgate Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Well done on the latter, I assume the odds were enough for a profit! He was one of the 3 players carded. So far, the 3 qualifying bookings bets I've posted have provided 1 winner at 9/5 and 2 losers at 10/3 and 3/1, both of which landed bang on the line. Small loss to level stakes, will carry on checking the remaining games. Thanks, odds were 2,70 on him to be booked, so a small profit. Looking forward to your bets :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markus808 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Hallelujah! Just over a week's wait and we have the second incidence of a potentially worthwhile bookings bet based on the discrepancy between the spreads and fixed odds prices. Mexico v Ecuador: >60 bookings points at 3/1 with PP Followed it big on betfair "booking points 56+" @ 2.7 and it won. You were really quite unfortunate, but it worked for me, thanks for spotting the edge! harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Followed it big on betfair "booking points 56+" @ 2.7 and it won. You were really quite unfortunate, but it worked for me, thanks for spotting the edge! Glad it was of help and thanks for alerting me to the fact that BF Sportsbook quotes bookings markets. They're not on Oddschecker and they're not one of the firms I normally check when looking for prices. I have a sneaky feeling they'll rarely offer the best available price but good to know they do have the markets. Haven't been able to find an edge on either of tonight's games but will post indicative odds in case it's of interest or use to anyone else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 The Uruguay v Paraguay game has a bookings expectation of around 54 points. On that basis I'd be looking for better than the following prices: 1.72 for >40, 1.75 for >45, 2.17 for >50, 2.33 for >55, 2.94 for >60 and 3.28 for >65. I can't find anyone offering prices that appeal on that basis so it's looking like "no bet" for me. (You'd be advised to look at team and ref stats and head to heads before making a decision that involved putting any money down.) One price that looks like it might be a bit big is the 10/3 that PP offer for >70 points but you'd have to be pretty confident of a card avalanche to bet at that sort of line! The input that I use for arriving at indicative prices is based on domestic games so doesn't extend much beyond 60 points but, with a bit of extrapolation, I'd pitch >70 at somewhere between 3/1 and the price on offer. I'll do the same for the later game now and post shortly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 For Argentina v Jamaica, the expectation is around 38 points (low for this tournament) which translates to 2.85 for >40, 3.03 for >45, 4.35 for >50, 5 for >55, 6.67 for >60 and 9.09 for >65. I've not found any potential bets on that basis but I am going to look more closely at this game to see if I agree with the underlying assumption that there won't be many cards. If I do bet, I may go with the spreads rather than fixed odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodgate Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Will make a bet on Ortigoza and Rios to bet booked. Odds are 4 and 2,9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Uruguay v Paraguay: Bought Bobadilla's goal minutes at 5 with Spreadex Twice the price elsewhere, I just can't be having him as the equivalent of a 9/1 anytime shot. Going off club stats as yet to score for his country but that looks generous to me. Not left myself much time for this game so will leave it at that. Betting in haste generally to be avoided but this looks like clear value and stakes can be kept modest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 For Argentina v Jamaica, the expectation is around 38 points (low for this tournament) which translates to 2.85 for >40, 3.03 for >45, 4.35 for >50, 5 for >55, 6.67 for >60 and 9.09 for >65. I've not found any potential bets on that basis but I am going to look more closely at this game to see if I agree with the underlying assumption that there won't be many cards. If I do bet, I may go with the spreads rather than fixed odds. I've bought bookings at 39 with Star Spreads. 4 yellows would edge the bet into profit and I make it that 14 of Argentina's last 18 games in this competition (going back to 2004) would have covered that spread. The 4 you'd have lost money on were 2 with 3 yellows and 1 each with 2 and 1 (so 30 points twice, 20 and 10). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodgate Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Ortigoza got booked and odds 4 won. For the Argentina game I will make a bet on Hector and Mariappa to get booked odds are 3 and 3,5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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