Womens World Cup (Canada) 2015 - 6th June to 5th July

[harry_rag]

Re: Womens World Cup (Canada) 2015 - 6th June to 5th July

Spain play a possession game and this helps them get corners. Spain won 8 corners against Costa Rica. Brazil conceded 5 corners against South Korea. Spain should be tougher than South Korea and Brazil tougher than Costa Rica. Taking all this into account, I think Spain should get at least 4-5 corners against Brazil, and are good value to get more than 3.5 (i.e. 4 or more) - Over 3.5 Spain corners 1.83 Bet365 Stake: 5 points

I don't take much encouraging to go for a decent corners punt although I almost always prefer the spreads and to trade a little extra risk for a better upside. I agree that Brazil can concede a lot of corners and often gain a lot themselves as well. I've decided to buy Spain corners squared at 25 and buy cross corners at 26, both with SPIN. 5 corners is my break even point on the Spain bet and I'll need at least 10 corners in the game for a profit. Hopefully the teams won't let me down!

[adamskijc]

Re: Womens World Cup (Canada) 2015 - 6th June to 5th July what's cross corners and corners squared?

[harry_rag]

Re: Womens World Cup (Canada) 2015 - 6th June to 5th July Also in that game, I've bought Cristiane's goal minutes at 15 with Spreadex. Surprised to be able to buy so low (21 elsewhere). Her stats are decent and she's playing upfront unless Spreadex knowing something that I (and SPIN) don't know.

[harry_rag]

Re: Womens World Cup (Canada) 2015 - 6th June to 5th July England v Mexico: Bought Jennifer Ruiz goal minutes at 3 and sold time of 2nd Mexico goal at 84, both with Spreadex Not left myself much time for this game but can see Mexico profiting from England's need to attack so too low risk interest bets for me that appear to offer a touch of value at the prices on offer.

[harry_rag]

Re: Womens World Cup (Canada) 2015 - 6th June to 5th July

what's cross corners and corners squared?

Thanks for the post, helped me spot some typos I've corrected, apologies for the sloppiness and will endeavor to do better! Cross corners are the number of flag kicks one team gains multiplied by the number the other team gains so if both teams get 6 corners the total "make up" is 36 (6 x 6). Corners squared are exactly that so if Spain get 3 corners their corners squared are 9 and I lose 16 times my stake (25-9). If they get 8 corners the make up is 64 and I win 39 times my stake (64-25).

[MPLouis]

Re: Womens World Cup (Canada) 2015 - 6th June to 5th July Two bets on Brazil W v Spain W for me. Although it's Spain's first World Cup, they are a very good team that play attractive possession-based football. Brazil are strong opponents with speed, strenght and skill and are hard to beat, but I think Spain's odds are too long for this game at around 6.0. According to my ratings, Spain should be more like 4.0, and I believe they are worth backing on the handicap. Spain play a possession game and this helps them get corners. Spain won 8 corners against Costa Rica. Brazil conceded 5 corners against South Korea. Spain should be tougher than South Korea and Brazil tougher than Costa Rica. Taking all this into account, I think Spain should get at least 4-5 corners against Brazil, and are good value to get more than 3.5 (i.e. 4 or more) - Spain W +1.0AH 2.08 188Bet Stake: 5 points Over 3.5 Spain corners 1.83 Bet365 Stake: 5 points

Brazil 1 Spain 0 Corners: 6-3 Bet 1 void Bet 2 lost Total stake: 10 points Total return: 5 points A deserved win for Brazil from what I saw. Spain started well and were the better side early on. But Brazil took over before half time and scored after a defensive mix up by Spain before half time. Bouyed by their lead, Brazil dominated the second half and Spain looked poor in comparison, only threatening in the last few minutes. I was impressed with Brazil's defence, and I think they have an outside chance of winning the tournament.

[Moneyline Dog]

Any knowledge of a good comprehensive breakdown of the scenarios via which teams advance or do not for these last 12 matchups of Group Stage?

[clubgowi]

Women's World Cup: Group A: Canada- Netherlands China- New Zealand Canada have created plenty of chances, but only have a single goal to show for it and are still not certain of even a top 2 finish. Christine Sinclair is the focus of so much of what they do offensively and this resulted in a very one dimensional offence. They switch from Edmonton to Montreal today, but are going to get huge support once again, maybe even bigger than for opening day and certainly in the 45,000 -55,000 range. The playing surface there is a little different too, Xtreme as opposed to FieldTurf, so conditions and surroundings will be a little alien to both teams.The hosts would secure first place in the group with a win and they are desperate for that as it would mean playing their Round of 16 and then last eight game in Vancouver, this is the home of the national team in more ways than one and as TSN described: "Vancouver is not just some ordinary training camp base, it is way more valuable than that. "Vancouver is the ancestral and spiritual home of the WNT and contains all those familiar patterns and surroundings - a soccer sanctuary like nothing else in the history of competitive soccer in Canada. "Vancouver dispenses refuge and reward in equal measures." Of course, wanting and doing are very different things and the Netherlands come into the match knowing that they probably need a point to clinch a place in the knockout round , they are ranked just four places below Canada in world rankings and have proved very difficult to score against in their two opening games. Canada have to qualify, but want to finish top, Netherlands would be incredibly pleased with a point, both could achieve those aims if China do not win the other match being played simultaneously in Winnipeg and I feel that match could have a huge bearing on how the game in Montreal plays out. I am quite taken with the Chinese and ahead of their win over the Dutch my preview went a lot like this..... The Canada- China game played out pretty much as I thought it might, ahead of which I wrote .............I am very interested in the Women's World Cup as a tournament, but am not going to get involved betting wise until Monday, today's matches should be very informative and I am keen to see China in action, they arrive with an extremely young squad, all aged between 19 and 26, Canada, whom they meet today, for example, have nine players aged 31+. The Chinese are building long term, looked very comfortable on the ball in the little I have seen of them and despite their youth, have played together as a group for some time. There is a lot of pressure on the Canadians as hosts and there will be a big crowd at the game, but this is also a concern for me with the Chinese, who started a recent friendly match against England very nervously, before settling into the game and impressing, all in all, I prefer to sit this one out. I think the Chinese were again nervous at the beginning, but grew into the game, were denied by the woodwork, but were very disciplined and clearly came for a point, which they were within a minute or two of achieving. The youngsters are on a very steep learning curve and will come on a lot for that and will not face the same level of massed support against them this evening. Coach Hao Wei said we will see a far more attacking approach from his players this evening and that might be the case, but I do not think that a point would be a disaster for either and it is hard to see with four third placed teams making it through and China's "easiest" game to come, that four points and no heavy defeat that four points would not be enough. The coach felt he had spotted some "flaws" in the Dutch defence and was confident his team would be able to exploit them. There was certainly encouragement for the Chinese from the Netherlands opener, with New Zealand coming on very strong through the second period, creating the better chances and being denied what they felt was a strong penalty appeal. I think the conditions and playing surfaces here will take a big toll and opening day temperatures of circa 23 degrees, where said to be way, WAY higher "on field" with the the artificial turf holding and reflecting the heat and really having an effect on players and this is something I am sure we will be returning to later this week, with some teams sure to hold up better, or certainly be more used to playing conditions that the surface will generate. If there is any advantage in that regard today it will surely be with the Chinese, which is a bonus. They edged that 1-0, with this time a late goal in their favour. A win today could see them take first place in the group, a point should be enough for second place, however, New Zealand can only progress with all three points and sooner or later they will have to throw caution to the wind and take the game to the Chinese and then they will be vulnerable. They are a very physical side and dangerous from set pieces and have an edge in this department against the Chinese, but they will leave themselves vulnerable once they push forward and at the end of the day, the Ferns have never won in 11 World Cup appareances and only once in seven starts at the Olympics and they do not get too many chances to test themselves at this level in competitive games. The two teams met in China early last year, with the hosts winning 1-0 , it was a close encounter, but I would argue that the Chinese are much improved since then and they would have learned a lot from that game, with ten of the New Zealand side who played that day featuring against Canada last week. I expect both games to be cautious early, that has been the MO of this group, with only one goal coming inside 90 minutes in the four games so far. I favour China to win narrowly once the Ferns are forced forward and out of their comfort zone....... China -0.5 ball 2.10 general quote....2.14 asian line/Sportmarket. Canada, under coach John Herdman are 17-3-2 against non top 7 teams ( nations ranked below them) and I think a change of enviroment for them might re-invigorate the team, they desperately want to win the group and unless NZ race into an early and decisive looking lead in the other game, which seems unlikely, the easiest and least fraught way to do so, would be by winning this. They have given little away defensively and I feel they can edge this, I will suggest Canada -0.75 ball 1.95 asian line/Sportmarket, but if you are watching this match "in running", a better option might be to wait for the -0.5 ball line to reach the same 1.95 quote.

[harry_rag]

Ivory Coast v Norway: Sell time of 1st Ivory Coast goal at 75 and buy their total goal minutes at 22, both to the same unit stake with SPIN Big difference of opinion between the firms here and, as this approach has done well for me so far, I'm happy to chance the prospects of this not being a procession to nil. Different calibre of opposition but the Ivorians seem to score more often than not. Pays just better than the best "Ivory Coast to score" price I can find of 7/5 for just one goal with the prospect of a much bigger payout if they manage a second.

[MPLouis]

Any knowledge of a good comprehensive breakdown of the scenarios via which teams advance or do not for these last 12 matchups of Group Stage?

Good question. It's complicated by the fact that, as well as the top two from each group, the four best 3rd-placed sides in the six groups also qualify (making a total of 16 teams to progress). Going into the last round of group games, as far as I can see, only Ivory Coast are effectively out. Meaning every other country can qualify to join Japan and Brazil in the last 16. The wiki page is a useful guide - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_FIFA_Women's_World_Cup

[MPLouis]

At the risk of embarassment, I'm going to oppose clubgowi for tonight's Group A games, where I think the value is with the outsiders New Zealand and Netherlands. Comparing the FIFA womens rankings, both favourites China and Canada are too short here - http://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/women/ There is also the fact that Canada will qualify with a draw, and China might be OK with a draw, but Netherlands might have to win, and NZ definitely need a win - so the underdogs need the win more in each case and the favourites might end up setting for a draw. I think there's value backing the outsiders here on the handicap at current odds: China W - New Zealand W New Zealand +0.5 1.95 188Bet Netherlands W - Canada W Netherlands or draw 2.4 Bet365 Stake: 5 points on each Total stake: 10 points

[MPLouis]

Forgot to mention - NZ have a poor record against China, but have won 3 of their last 4 games against them

[harry_rag]

Holland/Canada: Buy Holland goal minutes at 31 with SPIN and sell time of their 2nd goal at 86 with Spreadex I'm quite surprised at the very low total goals expectations for this game, perhaps an over reaction to more recent results. I'm inclined to side with the Dutch given, as flagged by MPLouis, their likely greater need. I think they'll score whether or not it's enough to qualify, hopefully more than once! Plenty of evidence in this tournament of bigger underdogs than the Dutch getting on the scoresheet.

[MPLouis]

At the risk of embarassment, I'm going to oppose clubgowi for tonight's Group A games, where I think the value is with the outsiders New Zealand and Netherlands. Comparing the FIFA womens rankings, both favourites China and Canada are too short here - http://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/women/ There is also the fact that Canada will qualify with a draw, and China might be OK with a draw, but Netherlands might have to win, and NZ definitely need a win - so the underdogs need the win more in each case and the favourites might end up setting for a draw. I think there's value backing the outsiders here on the handicap at current odds: China W - New Zealand W New Zealand +0.5 1.95 188Bet Netherlands W - Canada W Netherlands or draw 2.4 Bet365 Stake: 5 points on each Total stake: 10 points

Results: China W 2 New Zealand W 2 Netherlands W 1 Canada W 1 Both bets won :ok Total stake: 10 points Total return: 21.75 points Profit/loss = +11.75 points

[MPLouis]

Group E Australia W - Sweden W Weds 17th June 01.00 2nd v 3rd in Group E. Australia will qualify with a draw. Sweden probably have to win, and will be looking for that to make sure of progressing. Losing could see Australia go out, so there could be an exciting end to this game if it is close. Games like this often produce a lot of goals, and I think 'overs' are good value here at current odds. The two teams' games so far have produced an average of 3 goals each. Over 2.5 2.04 Marathon Stake: 5 points

[MPLouis]

Group E South Korea W - Spain W Thu 18th June 00.00 Both these sides sit on 1 point from 2 games and have to win here to stand a chance of qualifying (it should be enough as things stand). Goals look likely. The two sides' four games so far have produced an average of 2.25 goals per game but the chances are this will have goals than average because both sides have to go for it. I think overs are worth taking at current odds: Over 2.5 1.95 Ladbrokes Stake: 5 points

[harry_rag]

Ecuador v Japan: Sell time of 1st Ecuador goal at 73 and buy their total goal minutes at 27, to the same stake with Spreadex It may prove to be a case of going to this particular well one time too many but I think the bookies are consistently under rating the prospect of even the biggest underdogs scoring in this competition. Ecuador shipped 16 goals against the 2 other teams in the group, both of whom lost to Japan, so this could be a mauling but 1 goal is enough to more than double the money risked and any more would be a bonus. The 1 they scored in the 10-1 Swiss rollover (sorry) last time out was enough for a profit and I'm hoping the same applies tonight.

[Moneyline Dog]

I'm quite surprised at the very low total goals expectations for this game' date=' perhaps an over reaction to more recent results. [/quote'] I've gained the feeling that Totals Lines are in many cases being set .5 lower than Linesmakers would have set them were it not for the Turf this tourney is being played upon and the high number of games that are going under. The surface has hurt this tournament terribly and FIFA were total fools to have these games played on Green Carpet rather than Natural Grass. This has impacted Girl's confidence, technique and thus entertainment value of the games. They were told they were making a mistake as far back as August 2014 but they still went and organized this to be played on Turf. FIFA has again shot themselves in the foot. I've made good money on UNDERS thus far and I hope that will continue but I am mindful of the fact that Linesmakers have already IMO and will continue to compensate in Totals Lines for the fact that TURF has led to less scoring and thus will I be hunting for OVERS in the right spots. Only Under I've lost of the 8 I've played was China/Netherlands and that had 2 Questionable Goals, one off handball call another cuz Chinese Goalie was blocked by her own player. In those spots I might thi8nk good for OVER I might more likely No Play the Total then back the OV cuz of the TURF consideration so even the Turf is costing the Bookies Money lol!!!! Just wondered if anyone happened to know if we've seen more Unders than might have been expected? By comparison to Past WWCs? Or if my whole suspicion that teh Turf is causing more Unders is unsupported, by comparison to History.

[Moneyline Dog]

Woops meant China/New Zealand game not China & Netherlands ^^^^^^^

[clubgowi]

England vs Colombia Ahead of Columbia's win over France I wrote.... Colombia has a potential world star in Yoreli Rincon and have also developed a bit of a physical side and France might be wary of that and might take the option to rotate. England did a job on wonderfully gifted Elodie Thomis on the left flank, she caused Colombia a lot of problems in the Olympics and they will have taken note of that . Famous last words, but I do not see France going out of they way to run in a hatful and a low scoring win , might still keep the option of avoiding Germany open, a wide margin victory will probably not. The US are the only team that have scored three against Colombia in the last five years and I see a one or two goal win for Les Bleus as the most likely outcome. We took them +2.25 goals and they won 2-0, it was very much against the run of play, but Colombia were no less impressive for that and I would now argue that they have several, if not world class, then very close to it, offensive players, good options off the bench and are a tireless team with boundless energy and a bit of a physical side, they have a very good goalkeeper, which always gives you a chance and not many teams will play out the last 15-20 minutes better than them, all things considered, despite the early dominance of the French, they were pretty impressive. I watched some interviews with the English players yesterday and to a woman, they seemed to feel they were going to get kicked from pillar to post today, which seems odd and might influence how they approach this. It feels a bit drawish, England would like to avoid third place would could easily turn out to be a last 16 meeting with the defending champions, Japan, but as already indicated, I do not feel that they will finish as strongly as the South Americans. 1.5 units Colombia +0.75 ball 2.02 asian line/Sportmarket and a minimal stake (0.5 units) on England to win by exactly one goal at a general 3.25-3.50 , which would mean that if Colmbia score, as I think they will, England would need to score three for us not to turn a profit and they have shown no likelihood of doing so here in Canada and as previously discussed, it is a rare occurence for the Columbians to concede that many.

[MPLouis]

Group E Australia W - Sweden W Weds 17th June 01.00 2nd v 3rd in Group E. Australia will qualify with a draw. Sweden probably have to win, and will be looking for that to make sure of progressing. Losing could see Australia go out, so there could be an exciting end to this game if it is close. Games like this often produce a lot of goals, and I think 'overs' are good value here at current odds. The two teams' games so far have produced an average of 3 goals each. Over 2.5 2.04 Marathon Stake: 5 points

Result: Australia W 1 Sweden W 1 Bet lost Stake: 5 points Return: nil I saw the second half, when the score was 1-1. Knowing a draw was enough, Australia defended well against a disappointing Sweden, but Australia themselves rarely threatened, and the game drifted towards a draw.

[MPLouis]

Group F England W - Colombia W Mexico W - France W Weds 17th June 21.00 Looking at the qualification picture for tonight's games, taking into account the fact that the best four 3rd-placed teams qualify. England W - Colombia W Here, a point will almost certainly be enough for England, and even a defeat might be enough for Colombia. (4 points should be enough for a best 3rd place). The lack of a need for points could mean a low-scoring game. Mexico W - France W Mexico have to win, and France probably only need a point. France are quite capable of hitting Mexico on the counter, and this game could be high-scoring.

[harry_rag]

England vs Colombia Ahead of Columbia's win over France I wrote....

Not on here, as far as I can see! Apologies if I've managed to miss the post in question. I did post a bet on Colombia's goals in that game and tend to agree they may be worth siding with in some way against England. Will take a closer look at the available options.

[harry_rag]

England/Colombia: Bought Colombia total goal minutes at 39 with SPIN Leaves me a bit exposed to them scoring early but strikes me as the best value option. They looked good against France and may prosper from being able to afford to lose the game. A repeat of their late goal against the French would be more than welcome.

[harry_rag]

England/Colombia: Bought Colombia total goal minutes at 39 with SPIN Leaves me a bit exposed to them scoring early but strikes me as the best value option. They looked good against France and may prosper from being able to afford to lose the game. A repeat of their late goal against the French would be more than welcome.

Wish I could always be that prescient! I'd given up on the bet but Colombia's second half performance probably deserved a goal.

[harry_rag]

S Korea v Spain: Putellas anytime goalscorer at 9.5 Costa Rica v Brazil: Rosana anytime goalscorer at 11.5 and Darlene to score a hat trick at 67 3 singles and a double on the 2 anytime bets All with 888, basically the prices for these players look out of line with the goal minutes quotes offered by the spread firms and the stats are encouraging enough (club and/or country) to have a small interest.

[MPLouis]

Group E South Korea W - Spain W Thu 18th June 00.00 Both these sides sit on 1 point from 2 games and have to win here to stand a chance of qualifying (it should be enough as things stand). Goals look likely. The two sides' four games so far have produced an average of 2.25 goals per game but the chances are this will have goals than average because both sides have to go for it. I think overs are worth taking at current odds: Over 2.5 1.95 Ladbrokes Stake: 5 points

Result: South Korea W 2 Spain W 1 Bet won :ok Stake: 5 points Return: 9.75 points

[clubgowi]

Germany- Sweden I was not very complimentary about Sweden after their opener with Nigeria, maybe they were caught out by the severity of the conditions, they looked much better against the US, a team they know well , but a third draw with Australia left them needing help to qualify and a last 16 meeting with Germany was not how they saw this competition playing out for them. However, perhaps they will be more comfortable against another team they are far more familiar with and one against whom they have done well in the past. We can bet Sweden today at odds against, with a full handicap goal start, that would never have lost in nine previous meetings, including two earlier this year and given that Germany are unlikely to be too gung ho if they do take the lead and looked vulnerable after the break against Norway, that looks too big. Germany will doubtless start strongly again and Sweden might have to ride an early storm, but if they can see out the first ten minutes, I can see this becoming a bit cat and mouse and Sweden, who are very dangerous from set pieces, might even cause an upset. Sweden + 1 ball 2.06 asian line/Sportmarket.

[harry_rag]

Germany v Sweden: Buy Sweden total goal minutes at 36 with Spreadex, Leupolz to score anytime at 13/2 with 888, Fischer to score at 28/1 with 888 and bought her goal minutes at 2 with SPIN Looks like another case of the underdogs being under estimated to me so going with the goal minutes only approach (prices not favourable enough to include a sell of 1st goal time as well). Wouldn't put anyone off evens or better for them to score as a fixed odds punt. Leupolz's price looks big on her stats as does Fischer's. Not much to choose between the fixed odds/spreads options on her, hence the split stakes approach. She's a defender who poses significant threat at set pieces. Had won on her previously though missed her goal against Nigeria in the opener. Has 9 goals in 41 appearances for the National team (34 starts) including one each against France and the USA.

[harry_rag]

Brazil v Australia: Buy Brazil corners squared at 43 with SPIN The bet needs them to gain 7 corners to show a profit (i.e. 7 squared = 49) which I fancy them to do in the course of what may be a tricky game. They've gained 7, 6 and 7 in their 3 games so far. Would have considered their multi corners at 9 as that bet can break even if they get 6 corners (if they were evenly split 3 in each half) but their games so have have made up at 12 (4x3), 5 (5x1) and 10 (5x2) so I don't want to add that extra volatility into the mix. I normally prefer to bet on the underdog's corners as opposed to the favourite's but, as Australia have only gained 6 in their 3 group games, that doesn't make much appeal. Wouldn't be a surprise if they score but that's more than adequately reflected in the prices so I'll stick to the one bet unless the line-ups throw up any decent goalscorer bets.