nOXX Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Hi! Hereby I want to share my point of view about the Eurovision Song Contest 2015. But I want to start with introduction: I like football and poker but forecasting Eurovision results became like tradition for me from the late 2000es. That time I decided to watch this contest by TV and check can it be foreseen or not. My first result was bad because I was impressed by some articles and bookmakers odds and chose bad way. All next Eurovision contests were successful for me and this one won’t be exclusion, be sure. I like rock and club music and hate pop songs but it isn’t necessary to like things you bet on. The most important here is to understand what people will vote for and which song has highlight. Also we have to understand that Eurovision isn’t sport event and there is big politic dependence in the contest. We must pay greater attention to this year contest: there will be anniversary – 60th edition of the contest! Surprises must be and the first one is Australia attending… I can’t understand it, why do they need Australia to attend contest? For me its song is poor and they will be out of TOP10 but bookey think another…. Well, let’s quickly introduce my choices and only then decide which stake each country deserves. First semi-final consists of 16 countries which will contest for the 10 places in the final on 19th of May 2015. Greece: Maria Elena Kyriakou - "One Last Breath". Song: very very strong. Previous contests: Greece is always in the top decile with good songs. Politics: Cyprus always gave them maximum points because of politic situation. Politics is very close here because a lot of people know about the economic situation and possible independence of Greece soon. In my opinion there will be neutral influence on the result because of half population will be angry for the Greece (they don’t like to feed them) and other half will feel pity for them because of their possible bankruptcy. OGAE (fans club): they voted for the 22nd place of Greece but they always in opposite real results concerning this country. Let’s neglect this point. Conclusion: 4% of bankroll on Greece to qualify to the final for 1.3 in Paddypower (one week ago odd was 1.43 in Betfair…). Someone who likes risk can choose one more bet: 1% on Greece in TOP10 for 4.61 in Betfair. Anyway we must have profit here. Macedonia: Daniel Kajmakoski - «Autumn Leaves». Song: good vocal, interesting motive. Previous contests: They rare qualify to the final but last times their song were poor. This time it is more interested and have highlight. Politics: Neutral. OGAE (fans club): they voted for the 21st place. Conclusion: after long thinking I decided to skip my risky bet: 1% of bankroll on Macedonia to qualify to the final for 1.84 in Betfair. It isn’t valuable but I had to inform you about this interesting song. Netherlands: Trijntje Oosterhuis - "Walk Along". Song: light and kind Rasta man’s song. Previous contests: There rare attend the final but last times this “habit†has been changed. Politics: Neutral. OGAE (fans club): they voted for the 17th place. Conclusion: I decided to skip my risky bet: 2% of bankroll on Netherlans to qualify to the final for 2.5 in Paddypower. I see very low value here so offer to skip it. Finland: Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät - "Aina mun pitää". Song: punk rock song. Previous contests: they are always outsiders because of other Scandinavian countries use another strategy choosing country representatives. Only Lordi with heavy rock music won contest in 2006 (there was first time for many years they finish in TOP10…). There was big resonance that year…. Their song didn’t have Eurovision format but it was so unusual to see people with ugly masks with guitars… There will be attempt ?2. But the key is all band consists from the people with Down's syndrome. It is very important for us. I don’t think European people will neglect this fact and won’t allow them to qualify to the final. They will have never been forgiven. Politics: Neutral. OGAE (fans club): they voted for the 26th place (last possible place). Conclusion: I like this song because it is rock music. Also I see here huge value. It will be one of the surprises. My bets: 5% of bankroll on Finland to qualify to the final for 1.76 in Betfair (the odd was 2.5 last week, please hurry up) and – 1% on Finland in TOP10 for 3.18 in Betfair. Russia: Polina Gagarina – “Million voicesâ€. Song: one of the best young singers in Russia with very good vocal. The song is based on the best experience of Eurovision contest attendance and MUST be in TOP5 BUT politics will cramp us. The song is call to the peace in all over the world again. Previous contests: we are always in TOP10 and often in TOP5. Politics: very bad. All world is against us and likely we will be punished for nothing. As I know last year Tolmacheva’s sisters were booed just because of politics. People mostly don’t understand that happens in the world and trust to the TV-set program which almost always lies… OGAE (fans club): they voted for the 11th place. Conclusion: it is dangerous to bet on Russia this year. We used to have partners like Estonia, Latvia and Ukraine. Just symbolic stake on Russia in TOP10 for 1.14 isn’t valuable so let’s skip my country this time. Second semi-final consists of 17 countries which will contest for the 10 places in the final on 21th of May 2015. This semi-final contains all favorites but the same quantity places for the final (10 pcs.). It must be more competitive. Ireland: Molly Sterling - "Playing with Numbers". Song: this is my favorite. I like such kind of songs – rude woman’s voice, good motive. Also it has a highlight and zest. Previous contests: they haven’t had good results for a long time but they are only country which won contest for 7 times!!! But it was so long time ago… (last time they won it in 1996). Politics: neutral. OGAE (fans club): they voted for the 26th place. Conclusion: Ireland hasn’t been in final and of cause in TOP10 for a long time. Many bookmakers have opened the line: there will be next Ireland victory? I don’t think it is just without reasons. There can be 2nd surprise this contest so I offer you the next picks: 6% for qualify to the final for 2.33, 2% for TOP10 for 16.7 in Betfair (the odd was 30!!! last week). The last one: 1% for TOP5 for 26 in Betfair. I believe it can happen (it wouldn’t be surprise for me even if Ireland win). It seems to me they are well prepared to the anniversary and want to win it after such a long break. Malta: Amber - "Warrior". Song: this is my second favorite. I haven’t heard such a strong song for a long time. It contains all for the victory: good vocal, melodic motive and good beat. Previous contests: they haven’t had good results for a long time in the finals. But this song must change situation. Politics: neutral. OGAE (fans club): they voted for the 26th place. Conclusion: it is quite risky bet but I believe it has value. Last year Israel had very strong singer and I also bet on her but she hasn’t been even qualified to the final!!! OGAE forecasted them 3rd place but….. I think there was just politics. But here we have zero politic influence and good song. Let’s try with the following bets: 6% for qualify to the final for 1.81, 3% for TOP10 for 22 in Betfair (the odd was 30!!! last week). Czech Republic: Marta Jandová & Václav Noid Bárta - "Hope never dies". Song: this is also one of my favorite. It contains all for the success: duet, good both woman and man vocal, melodic motive. Previous contests: their previous results are very bad. Their maximum result is only 9 point in one of the last 3 finals… They haven’t attended contest from 2000 because of unsatisfied results. But their previous singers had bad songs. This duet has quite a lot for the good result. Politics: neutral. OGAE (fans club): they voted for the 25th place. Conclusion: it is quite risky bet but I believe in that kind of sensation. If you check their recent singers you reveal they are not good, not in Eurovision format. Bookmakers and OGAE thinks the same: first time for the last 15 years Czech Republic take part in the contest and doesn’t think about the good result. I have opposite opinion – there is anniversary, there is good duet with nice song – why do they should be out of final this time? 15 years without the final!!! So my picks here the following: 2% on qualification to the final for 2.86 in Betfair, 1% on TOP10 for 21-23 in many bookeys. Slovenia: Maraaya - "Here for You". Song: very interesting song with good original performance. It looks like very kind and playful song. It is Eurovision format. It is very familiar to the Lena from Germany who won contest couple of years ago – she was just amateur but won contest! Previous contests: their previous results are very bad. They seldom attend final but this year is special one. Previous singers weren’t good enough. Politics: neutral. OGAE (fans club): they voted for the 5th place. Conclusion: this is sure pick for me – Maraaya must be qualified so we have to place big bet here: 10% on qualification to the final for 1.19 in Betfair and 2% on TOP10 for 2.42 in Betfair. Sweden: MÃ¥ns Zelmerlöw - "Heroes". Song: favorite of the bookmakers. Excellent performance and background, dancing song with handsome man. This song has all for the Eurovision but I don’t think it will win. First of all Sweden has already won contest couple of years ago. Secondly this year there are lots of good singers to compete with. But it must be in TOP10 and in TOP5. Previous contests: their previous results are very good. Loreen won contest in 2012 and if you look at Sweden results for the last 15 years you reveal they are often in TOP10. Sweden like this contest and always send good singers for the contest in comparison with other countries like BIG5 (France, England, Germany, Italy and Spain). Politics: neutral. They are always awarded maximum point from their neighbors (Scandinavian countries). OGAE (fans club): they voted for the 2th place. It is understandable – OGAE consist from teenagers but in real contest there will be a lot of other people who will like other kind of songs like Malta and others. Conclusion: this is sure pick for me – Sweden in TOP10 – 10% for 1.15 in 10% for TOP5 in Betfair for 1.21. Unfortunately it is impossible to earn big money on favorites here – I am not sure he will win and also there isn’t big difference between TOP5 and TOP4 but everything can happen. Finalists: Spain: Edurne - "Amanecer". Song: strong song. I think she can be in TOP10 or maybe in TOP5. But she sing in Spain and isn’t good (people like English song not in national language). Her vocal is good but something wrong here and I can’t understand it. Previous contests: Spain is always out of TOP10 and its song always in Spain… Politics: neutral. OGAE (fans club): they voted for the 8th place. Conclusion: it doesn’t know what to do – odd 4 for TOP10 looks good but I don’t see value here. Let’s skip it. Italy: Il Volo - "Grande amore". Song: Very very strong song. For me it is opera, trio sings very confident and has very good chance to win this year. Unfortunately artists with classic vocal have never won contest but this can be an exception. Previous contests: Italians don’t think about this contest as about serious contest. Italy has boycotted this contest since 1998 to 2010 but after always finished in TOP10. This is anniversary and all country want win. So this is one of the favorites. Politics: neutral. OGAE (fans club): they voted for the 1st place (OGAE often forecast 1st place for real winners). Conclusion: 10% on TOP10 for 1.26 in Betfair, 3% on TOP5 for 1.54 in Betfair. I don’t want to risk more here. Germany: Ann Sophie - "Black Smoke". Song: interesting vocal, playful lady with good song and no more. Frankly speaking she finished only second after Angreas Kummert in national selection but he refused to go to the Vena… So Ann Sophie won’t have any obligations and compliance for the victory, she is only deputy J. BUT please remember EURO1992 (football contest) there Danmark won without any preparations and trainings just because they were qualified by lucky chance (I don’t think it will be interesting to see full story about it here). I think Germany can get high position here. Previous contests: Except Lena (1st place on the Eurovision 2010) the often out of TOP10. Politics: neutral. OGAE (fans club): they voted for the 18st place. Conclusion: 2% on TOP10 for 7.5 in Boleysport. I want to risk here but nobody except be believe in this result (I wanted to put 1% more on TOP5 for odd=30 but decided to skip it). There will be some extra bets and comments tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nOXX Posted May 16, 2015 Author Share Posted May 16, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Some words about Eurovision 2014: I bet on Austria in spite of I hate and can't understand singer (lady with beard). All Russia can't understand it. BUT it was something new and I decided to bet on it - like on Lordi (Finland) and Lena (Germany) some years ago. After 2014 everything can happen, one russian comic offered to send Tank as a representative from Russia :). This year Estonia has good chances because it has light song, Netherlands is also interesting. I can't understand why Australia is one of the favorites by bookeys. I don't think they can reach even TOP10. I think it is enough. Let's wait semi-finals. Please note that all odds will be changed after semi-finals (as far as I remember odd on Austria in TOP5 in semi-final last year was quite big). I offer to use Betfair - they always offer higher odd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sekt10ned Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 I think I'd like to make a case for Italy here. It seems such a strong song - the performers look great on stage and powerful voices are often rewarded in Eurovision. I remember a couple of years ago a God-awful Albanian song doing well just because the performer had such a range - it didn't matter that her voice was actually pretty ugly in the higher register, people respected the performance nonetheless. Now you can always say opera didn't work for France but I remember that performance was extremely flat and just did not appeal. The jury system should favour Italy as it recognises both quality and commercial appeal - and there is certainly a strong commercial market for that kind of song. The past few years has seen a strong tack towards Western Europe and believe that it will continue this time but look out for a strong performance from Russia too - politics will hold it back a little but it is the kind of song that usually breaks into the top 3. So my bet - I have to take some of 4.7 for Italy on the outright (Betfair). Sweden seems an unlikely fave to me. If Italy get a good late slot come Friday night it will most certainly tighten. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nOXX Posted May 18, 2015 Author Share Posted May 18, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Yes, Italy has great chance to win this time. But after Austria last year I won't be surprise any result :). Except last year there were absolute clear who will win: Loreen, Danmark (Teardrops), Rybak - all were favorites with odd les than 2 as I remember. Now Sweden has 2.82 and we can expect something unforseen here. I don't like to bet on winner, it is better to bet on TOP5 or TOP10, the risk is much lower. Good luck with Italy. I will cheer for Finland :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Opera/Popera has never done well in Eurovision. Sognu firmed a lot prior to 2011 and it finished well outside the top 10. Italy this year is a bit of a stronger song but you're a brave man to back Popera to win Eurovision. Sweden feels like an acceptable favourite but lacks the strength of Loreen or Emily de Forrest. The visuals are definitely key though. What I will say is that if these songs were for Eurovision 2010, then Russia would be an unbackable favourite. Polina has excellent vocals and the song is very well suited to Eurovision, though susceptible to being viewed as a bit cynical. Jury vote could help though. Regardless, value for me is clearly on Russia, probably each way is best as it's hard to see this finishing outside the Top 4, but the reception of the song could go either way in terms of winning. Still not entirely sure how it will, but I still see it as a more likely winner than Italy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sekt10ned Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 The current political situation definitely hinders Russia but the anti Russia vote would surely be weaker than last year. 2014 was the protest year - remember there has (aherm) supposedly been a truce through most of the year in Eastern Ukraine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Surely Russia won't be helped by their current political situation? Afterall, this competition is 80% political. They aren't. But without the political situation they are odds on favourite IMO. They still finished 7th last year and their entry wasn't anywhere near as strong either. Their diaspora strength is still going to be strong. Might not win but for me the value is with them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nOXX Posted May 19, 2015 Author Share Posted May 19, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Russia won't win, please be sure. I am from Russia and understand what our "partners" think about us. It is impossible to see Russia as a host of next Eurovision. Contest is very political but not 80%. Maybe first 1-2 places are under big politics pressure but others don't feel the same on their skin. Please note that Estonia, Latvia and other our friendly contries won't vote for us. We have maybe the best song but we will be booed.... So Russia NOT win is good choice for any accumulator. Please check all previous Eurovision (2008-2013) and you will see which countries gave us their points. Than check Eurovision 2014. And keeping in mind current political situation please forecast which countries will give us maximum points? Estonia? Latvia? Lithunia? Ukraine is absent. Poland? So we haven't support from post-Soviet this year. Our current place - 5-15 and not more. But everything can happen. I will avoid any bets on Russia. By the way Marathonbet offers the best odds on qualification to the fanal. Please note it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nOXX Posted May 19, 2015 Author Share Posted May 19, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Aidymac please don't sorry I also just wrote my comments :). I really want you to win. Don't put money on Russia, the risk doesn't deserve it. It is better to place max bet on Barcelona win Uventus :). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tadley Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Just seen the Finland entry: a special needs group singing a punk song. Not sure that the Eurovision world is ready for it; but it definitely stands out. Might be worth a small dabble at 20/1 most bookies or 28/1 Betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nOXX Posted May 19, 2015 Author Share Posted May 19, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 after lady with beard everything can be:) Russia is the best or in TOP3 but politics will make their business. Our producers know how to make good performance on such events. Unfortunately it isn't contest - the singers lie Sia, Beuonce, Riahna and others from USA would won this contest without any troubles))) Concerning Finland - the sond is rubbish for Eurovision but the artists are special people, I really respect them. I think they will be qualified. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nOXX Posted May 19, 2015 Author Share Posted May 19, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Punks lost. Pity, good guys. Frankly speaking I can't understand results - all favorites won, no surprises... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gazzyg Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Right the cat is out the bag after Russia's SF-1 win so I'm gonna declare while 4/1 or so is still available. Previous 16's well gone sorry. (4's does mean you get a bet to nothing on E/W as they won't be outside the Top 4) I suspect it may shorten again when they see Sweden's vote is closer than expected on Thursday. Don't think you should look outside those 2 really unless my sneaky outsider in Serbia storms it The format changes in the last few years have all favoured the Bookies unfortunately with the inclusion of 50% juries scoring. I have absolutely no doubt that several will have a good sniff of friendly info from the Jury votes scored from rehearsals. Russia plumetted in odds as Austria did last year after SF win. For me it's once bitten. I honestly didn't see a German win in 2010 with the Big 4's popularity (my one big blemish and money losing year) so I'm not buying Russian unpopularity hindering this one too much. Sweden is a cleverly designed performance...we'll know more Thursday how the little cartoon gimmick is received....I think the bookies may stick with it as fav just from online polls but if you get a spreadsheet sorted of voting order and find the best early place where Sweden may not have had the vote of many of their traditional advantageous countries you may find them eased to near 4's where you can get on E/W and enjoy the rest of the vote knowing you have both covered. A first half draw might ease them out to a backable price. You can't really take 2's Serbia interesting at 35-1 (I'll have some of that E/W but a little because I have fond memories of the 20's I took on Molitva..ahh happy night) At this stage I would say that is your best money maker Serbia Top10 @7/4 go take those bookies money Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nOXX Posted May 20, 2015 Author Share Posted May 20, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 after 1st semifinal I am worry about my forecast: Chezh, Malta and Ireland are outsiders and lost tomorrow. I thought there was unforseen surprises but yesterday saw picture there bookey won people :). Sweden in TOP4 for 1.22 is very good odd to play now (maybe putting in in the accumulator). Russia dropped down Sweden but it is temporary event. Tomorrow everything can be changed again). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gazzyg Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Really struggling to follow your logic now Nox. all favorites won, no surprises Demark not qualifying wasn’t a surprise? 3 of your own picks Macedonia, Netherlands & Finland to qualify not doing so wasn’t a surprise to you…if it wasn’t why were you backing them...these 3 had 9% of your bankroll on them ? From what I see you are backing... Greece to qualify (4%) Top 10 (1%) Macedonia to qualify (1%) Netherlands to qualify (2%) Finland to Qualify (5%) Top 10(1%) Malta to qualify (6%) Top 10 (3%) Ireland to qualify (6%) Top 10 (2%) Top 5 (1%) Czech to qualify (2%) Top 10 (1%) Slovenia to qualify (10%) Top 10 (2%) Sweden Top 10 (10%) Top 5 (10%) Italy Top 10 (10%) Top 5 (3%) Germany Top 10 (2%) ...but also " this year Estonia has a good chance" so that's 12 countries ! well 9 now that 3 of them have failed to progress. Spreading out your bets like that is going to really damage your chances of getting a decent win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Jury voting should massively favour Russia as the song is of top quality for Eurovision. They are also now in the second half of the draw so they are well placed in that regard. Italy are too but I'd rather them to run late than Sweden, who are now more probable than not to be in the first half of the draw. Will need to see how Sweden fare but Russia are very strongly placed, their positive reception was critical and the theme of building bridges for this event may work in their favour. Norway entry is of high quality and has a chance of being prominent, but not sure yet the best way to bet on them as there is a risk of it being overlooked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sekt10ned Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 I had friends in the audience last night and they reported strong support for Russia among the crowd - Serbia too but given that so many Serbs live in Vienna that might be misleading. True there are a lot of Eastern Europeans in the city also but I do believe you have to take a possible Russian win into your strategy for Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nOXX Posted May 20, 2015 Author Share Posted May 20, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Really struggling to follow your logic now Nox. Demark not qualifying wasn’t a surprise? 3 of your own picks Macedonia, Netherlands & Finland to qualify not doing so wasn’t a surprise to you…if it wasn’t why were you backing them...these 3 had 9% of your bankroll on them ? From what I see you are backing... Greece to qualify (4%) Top 10 (1%) Macedonia to qualify (1%) Netherlands to qualify (2%) Finland to Qualify (5%) Top 10(1%) Malta to qualify (6%) Top 10 (3%) Ireland to qualify (6%) Top 10 (2%) Top 5 (1%) Czech to qualify (2%) Top 10 (1%) Slovenia to qualify (10%) Top 10 (2%) Sweden Top 10 (10%) Top 5 (10%) Italy Top 10 (10%) Top 5 (3%) Germany Top 10 (2%) ...but also " this year Estonia has a good chance" so that's 12 countries ! well 9 now that 3 of them have failed to progress. Spreading out your bets like that is going to really damage your chances of getting a decent win. firstly, please be more attantive - I decided to skip betting on risky Macedonia to qualify (1%) and Netherlands to qualify (2%). Estonia was qualified as I expected but I decided to skip it as well. So I can't understand your comments. secondly, logic is simple - there are must be surprises in contest. Betting just on the favorites you will receive negative yeld, be sure. But yesterday ALL favorites WON. It is quite interesting. It happens quite seldom. Danmark was outsider by the way. But you are correct: there was one little surprise - Serbia was qualified instead of Belarus but they are the same quality for me. Finland wasn't qualified, I am agree, I am lost. But this is forecasting, the odd was 2.1 in the last minute before the beginning of contest. It is like coin toss and I believe in this bet. Please look at this table - don't you see any surprises? I see - there are NOT Austria I bet on (as far as I remember the odd on Austria in TOP4-5 was quite sweet). I think everything is clear for you. [TABLE=width: 568] [TR] [TD]TOTAL[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]OGAE Position[/TD] [TD]Real contest[/TD] [TD]Bookey forecast2014[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]157[/TD] [TD]Armenia[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]354[/TD] [TD]Sweden[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]73[/TD] [TD]Denmark[/TD] [TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]132[/TD] [TD]Norway[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD=align: right]4 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]13[/TD] [TD]Ukraine[/TD] [TD=align: right]24[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]162[/TD] [TD]United Kingdom[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]17[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]262[/TD] [TD]Hungary[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]23[/TD] [TD]Azerbaijan[/TD] [TD=align: right]18[/TD] [TD=align: right]22[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] [TD]Belgium[/TD] [TD=align: right]17[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]19[/TD] [TD]Romania[/TD] [TD=align: right]21[/TD] [TD=align: right]12[/TD] [TD=align: right]10[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gazzyg Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Betting just on the favorites you will receive negative yeld Bilan favourite Ryback favourite Euphoria favourite Teardrops favourite I'm really not having a pop Nox but you don't have to go looking for opportunities that maybe aren't there when the obvious win is there in front of your face. Sometimes we accept the bookies can see this as well as us and we take the best odds and win. Many years the favouritism will be justified the aren't complete mugs ...every few years we may unearth the odd gem and they get it way wrong like 2007 20-1 Serbia's Molitva and last year 40-1 Austria. No need to make it hard for ourselves. You mentioned Austria...well done...yes some of us realised the bookies had that one wrong very early lol Here's my post from 2014 so I don't just go for the favourites Taa Daaaaaaaa !!!! :rollin Sorry I'd notice the stuff about "too risky" but struggled to see why you would have such specific %bankroll and particular bookie and odds available only to say but I'm not actually doing that. Good luck though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nOXX Posted May 20, 2015 Author Share Posted May 20, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 I had friends in the audience last night and they reported strong support for Russia among the crowd - Serbia too but given that so many Serbs live in Vienna that might be misleading. True there are a lot of Eastern Europeans in the city also but I do believe you have to take a possible Russian win into your strategy for Saturday. Thanks for the info but I absolutely can't understand what will be in Russia if Gagarina won. Please understand - many countries can boycott contest next year, you really can't understand under which presure we are. I am patriot and will glad to see Russia on the first place but it seems to me Eurovision Anniversary must win some traditional european county with tradition song like Italy. Les't watch football, Uve-Lazio already 1-1!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nOXX Posted May 20, 2015 Author Share Posted May 20, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Bilan favourite Ryback favourite Euphoria favourite Teardrops favourite I'm really not having a pop Nox but you don't have to go looking for opportunities that maybe aren't there when the obvious win is there in front of your face. Sometimes we accept the bookies can see this as well as us and we take the best odds and win. Many years the favouritism will be justified the aren't complete mugs ...every few years we may unearth the odd gem and they get it way wrong like 2007 20-1 Serbia's Molitva and last year 40-1 Austria. No need to make it hard for ourselves. You mentioned Austria...well done...yes some of us realised the bookies had that one wrong very early lol Here's my post from 2014 so I don't just go for the favourites Taa Daaaaaaaa !!!! :rollin Sorry I'd notice the stuff about "too risky" but struggled to see why you would have such specific %bankroll and particular bookie and odds available only to say but I'm not actually doing that. Good luck though. Dear gazzyg, I don't want to argue with you. I am not professional bettor, Eurovision contest forecasting is just hobby. My bankroll for this contest is only 200$ so even if I lost 20% I wouldn't be very upset. I lost just two bets yesterday and won one. Yeld is negative but let's wait a little - it is just the beginning. Please understand - I am just topicstarter who want to share some thoughts. Tomorrow I again will lesten In Flames or Red Fang in the car and forget about the Finland fail :) You mentioned favorites but couldn't catch main idea - I don't want to forecast winner, so I am talking about the TOP10 or something about that. Bilan, Rybak, Loreen, Teardrops were favorites But let's look at the last 10 contest winners: 2004-2005-2006-2007-2010-2011-2014 - were they favorites?????? NO. But they won. You nentioned just 4 absolute favorites but please note that Teardrops has odds just 1.67 as far as I remember. It is quite low. Rybak is almost the same, 2.1 approximately. So betting just on favorites you will be with negative yeld, be sure. But I don't want to continue arguing. There is no sense. [TABLE=class: standard] [TR] [TD]2004[/TD] [TD] ???????[/TD] [TD]???????[/TD] [TD]Wild Dances[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2005[/TD] [TD] ??????[/TD] [TD]????? ????????[/TD] [TD]My Number One[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2006[/TD] [TD] ?????????[/TD] [TD]Lordi[/TD] [TD]Hard Rock Hallelujah[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2007[/TD] [TD] ??????[/TD] [TD]????? ?????????[/TD] [TD]Molitva[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2008[/TD] [TD] ??????[/TD] [TD]???? ?????[/TD] [TD]Believe[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2009[/TD] [TD] ????????[/TD] [TD]????????? ?????[/TD] [TD]Fairytale[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2010[/TD] [TD] ????????[/TD] [TD]???? ?????-???????[/TD] [TD]Satellite[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011[/TD] [TD] ???????????[/TD] [TD]Ell & Nikki[/TD] [TD]Running Scared[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2012[/TD] [TD] ??????[/TD] [TD]?????[/TD] [TD]Euphoria[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2013[/TD] [TD] ?????[/TD] [TD]?????? ?? ??????[/TD] [TD]Only Teardrops[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2014[/TD] [TD] ???????[/TD] [TD]??????? ?????[/TD] [TD]Rise Like a Phoenix[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gazzyg Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Just a teeny bit more info if I may....1st half acts. Only 4 have won in donkeys ( lots of years) They've in the main overcome that by being big phenomenum acts. Austria's Conchita, Israel's Dana & Ruslana's hude stage dance theme. This year looks pretty tame in comparison and a song judged year means 1st half looks bad news. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gazzyg Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Fair enough Nox ..apologies wasn't meant to be argumentative we each have our own method we think is most productive. I like win odds rather than sub 3.00 odds on Top5/10 position and haven't felt it's been that tricky to do so in recent times. Thanks for the initial postings ...got me checking early ....and the very best of luck to you with all of them. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nOXX Posted May 21, 2015 Author Share Posted May 21, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 odds on Czech is shortenning, I hope it is good sigh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nOXX Posted May 21, 2015 Author Share Posted May 21, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 he-he, funnny results... I can't understand people choices. Again all bookeys favorites won. Maybe I can't understand current situation in music, really don't understand why countries like Lithunia, Poland, Israel and Montenegro won. The songs are rubbish... But again just one little "surprise" - Montenegro instead of Iceland (but I can't understand why...) All rest stake from this event on Barcelona :). There was funny contest. Logic isn't working here (last years I had good results, this - bad.). Maybe is it better to take all first TOP10 favorites in the final and bet on them to be in TOP10? :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sekt10ned Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 I totally agree about Israel. But it was worth watching to see Sweden's entry. Now while it's not to my taste I recognise a very strong candidate for winner. If it is in the second half of the draw, odds will tighten sharply later. But even if it's in the first half I think ORF and EBU will have it somewhere around 11-13 which can be a strong position. I think I would recommend a punt on it even at it's current 2.8 on Betfair. Experience suggest those odds will start tumbling from Saturday morning. It really should win given Russia's politics issues and Italy being more of a required (my) taste. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sekt10ned Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 I see Sweden are drawn in the first half. I think they should be ok if they have a place in the teens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gazzyg Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Yes Sweden drawn 1st half....Final order should be decided late tonight ~2am and available in the morning. That should provide the final peice of the puzzle. Eurovision have an algorithm which takes the Semi voting and models a predicted result then orders the performance and voting order to try to maximise the excitement on the night. If you think the bigger bookies don't have the technology to crack that algorithm then you are bonkers lol. Norway doing well tonight may split Scandinavian votes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gazzyg Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Ahhhh Russia at 25 Italy closing at 27. Sweden at 10 after Norway 9 and Serbia 8 with Australia 12 (oof congested) Interesting very very interesting LOL [h=2]The running order for the Grand Final[/h] Slovenia France Israel Estonia United Kingdom Armenia Lithuania Serbia Norway Sweden Cyprus Australia Belgium Austria Greece Montenegro Germany Poland Latvia Romania Spain Hungary Georgia Azerbaijan Russia Albania Italy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gazzyg Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Belgium seem to be dropping in odds every hour (televote leakage I gather) ...now just 4-1 & 5-1 Naa not having that ..not Belgium. I suspect they may have been runner up to Swedes in Semi 2 last night so those in know fancy a top 4 finish. Might just allow Sweden out to close to backable..... Currently 7/4. At 2-1 I think I'll have more Sweden...got more than enough Russia E/W from 20's down Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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