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China Super League April 27th


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I actually wrote this on my blog(https://analysisandpreview.wordpress.com/2015/04/26/china-super-league-2015-match-preview-shandong-luneng-vs-beijing-guoan/) China Super League 2015: Match Preview: Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan is slightly favored by most bookmakers, but I think Shandong Luneng is more likely to win this game. Therefore, I would recommend Shandong Luneng(+0) 1.975@bet365. First of all, both team will be lacking defensive players, but the impact on the away team is more significant, as they have the best defensive record in the league: they kept several clean sheets in the beginning of the season, but then they have started leaking goals recently, because of the injuries/suspensions in their defense department. In contrast, Shandong have already conceded many goals this season, both domestically and in the AFC champions league, and it seems that there is no difference between their regular defenders and those non-regular defenders. Overall, Beijing might be slightly better than Shandong in terms of defense, however, Shandong can make amends for their poor defense with their strong offensive power. In fact, Shandong have the best offensive record in the league, 14 goals in 6 league games, they also scored in each of their AFC champions league game. Since the beginning of this season, they scored in every game. Out of the 11 games they played, they scored at least 2 goals in 8 of them. Scoring goals have never been a problem for them, and their attacking players are all in their best form. With Beijing’s incomplete defensive line and depleted squad, it is very obvious that Shandong will score, and then how many goals they can score? 2 or more goals are very likely. Then, how many goals Beijing can score? I don’t really see them score more than 2 goals, in fact, Beijing is a very balanced team, they don’t score that many goals every game, they win because they know how to defend. Offensively, in their last 4 games, they only scored 2 goals against Guizhou, who is currently sitting in the relegation zone. All in all, Beijing only scored 4 goals in their last 4 games, which is not something that they would be proud of. And there is some other factors that we should consider, Shandong is a very young team, while Beijing is a very old team. In this Beijing team, many players are 30+ years old. In particular, their two defensive midfielder: Matic and Ha Dae-Sung, are 35 and 30 years old, respectively. Their full back, Zhou Ting, is 36 years old, given their injury situation, Zhou Ting will very likely play as a central back this game, and it would interesting to see how he will perform in this new position. And then, their main striker Dejan, who played 90 minutes in the mid-week’s AFC champions league, is 34 years old. Another two attacking midfielder, Shao Jiayi, and Batalla, are 36 and 31 years old respectively, while Shao Jiayi is most likely used as substitute player, Batalla is their key player, who played most of their games, and scored the equalizer goal in their last game against Guizhou. In contrast, Shandong consist of many young players: most of their players are below 30 years old. Given the fact that both team are playing both domestic leagues and AFC champions league, and the schedule are very tight, it can be expected that this Shandong team will be more energetic while Beijing will feel more fatigue effect. This will certainly hurt them in both attacking and defense aspects. Though Shandong have conceded 10 goals in their last 4 home games, against this tired and old Beijing team, very likely they won’t concede cheap goals like they did in previous games. So, overall, I would say, Shandong Luneng(+0) 1.975@bet365 is something we can try.

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