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kevshat

World Championship - 18 Apr - 4 May

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Re: World Championship - 18 Apr - 4 May Anthony McGill vs Shaun Murphy over 21.5 frames 4/5 paddy power Match to go to a deciding frame 5/1 paddy power 147 in the match 11/1 paddy power I think out of the quarter finals this is has to most interesting as they is no real favourite McGill is playing great snooker at the moment and is capable of winning this match but he is facing an opponent who is on top of his game and can all the way and win the whole thing so this match is too close to call and maybe it might go to final frame decider

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Re: World Championship - 18 Apr - 4 May Good luck chaps :ok I'm a bit last minute but here's a couple for the first 2 matches. J.Trump to beat D.Junhui, first 8 frames, 3pts @ 13/10 Boylesports This should be a cracking match but I fancy Judd to start the quicker. So far, Ding has been 5-3 down after 8 frames in both his matches having been 4-1 down against Mark Davis & 5-1 down against Higgins. Judd, on the other hand, was 6-2 v Carrington and 5-3 up against Marco Fu. I think the other big thing to add is 'match fitness' and Judd only finished his 2nd round match yesterday so will be ready to go. I also think Judd will win too, he looks up for this and I fancy him to be ahead going into the 2nd session. S.Murphy to beat A.McGill, first 8 frames, 4pts @ 17/20 William Hill S.Murphy to beat A.McGill 6-2, first 8 frames, 1pt @ 6/1 Betfred S.Murphy to beat A.McGill 7-1, first 8 frames, 1pt @ 20/1 Betfred McGill has played brilliantly so far but I think this is the end of the road. Whilst he has 2 massive scalps in Maguire & Selby, neither of them were playing that well & that's not something we can say about Shaun Murphy. McGill has had a few days off and I think that will play to Murphy's advantage and Smurf will be looking for a fast start. After the 1st 8 frames, McGill was 4-4 with Selby and 5-3 up on Maguire. Murphy meanwhile was 7-1 up in both of his matches and, with the draw opening right up for him, he'll be focused on making a statement & getting this over with in the first session. Not only do I think he'll up 8 frames in, I think it could be comfortable so taking 2 correct score bets too.

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Re: World Championship - 18 Apr - 4 May N.Robertson, over 2.5 centuries, v B.Hawkins, 5pts @ 11/8 Bet365 Cracking price for a player in cracking form, scoring as heavily as ever. Robbo has already hit 7 centuries in this year's tournament, 3 en route to beat Jamie Jones 10-2 and 4 in beating Ali Carter 13-5. Robbo has hit 56 centuries this season, 2nd only to Judd Trump, and the 3rd most in Ronnie on 43, some 13 back. Last season, he hit 103, the highest ever in a season & a feat unlikely to be matched anytime soon. What I like about Robbo is his desire to get to a century once the frame is won. Others like to bring out the exhibition shots but not Robbo who wants to clear up. I fancy him to dispose of Barry Hawkins comfortably & progress into another semi final and, assuming he wins the required 13 frames, I think he can convert 3 into tons.

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Re: World Championship - 18 Apr - 4 May D.Junhui to hit highest break v J.Trump, 4pts @ 13/8 Boylesports With the 1st session over with, we've seen 1 break over 100. That was a 108 by Judd but I'm certain there's a bigger break left in this match. After an awful start, going 6-0 down, Ding won the last 2 frames of the session and, like previous matches, I expect him to stage a bit of a comeback. To do that, he'll need to score heavily which he is more than capable of doing. He had a 135 in his last match against Higgins. bigger than anything Trump has matched here this year. Like Robbo, Ding is necessarily fancy with his shots when making a break whereas Judd is the exhibitionist once the frame is won. As we've yet to witness the high break in this match, something I'm 95% sure of, there's no way Ding should be such a big price so happy to take them on the high break bet.

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Re: World Championship - 18 Apr - 4 May Judd Trump to win the World Championship 7/2 paddy power Name the finalists : Judd Trump vs Shaun Murphy 3/1 paddy power Straight Forecast betting : Judd Trump to beat Shaun Murphy 9/2 paddy power I think Trump is playing his best snooker in a very long time He seems to have improved every bit of his game like positioning and safety and he is not going for every shot as he used to do The way he is playing it is hard for someone to stop him winning his first world title also another player who has impressed me is Murphy who seems like Trump to playing his best snooker at just the right time

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Re: World Championship - 18 Apr - 4 May Quick update after the QF bets have been settled. I'm at +25.64 for the match bets but -11.00 for the outrights, leaving me +14.64pts overall. Still have a 6/1 bet on Judd outright too :ok Looking forward to the semi finals, should be some great snooker.

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Re: World Championship - 18 Apr - 4 May Top work mate :ok. Semi-final previews: 5pts S.Murphy vs B.Hawkins - Over 28.5 frames 4/5 Coral I think this one is set to be a really fascinating and high quality semi-final. I would fancy Hawkins to win this but he must start running low on reserves soon and it probably doesn’t help him that this semi-final has the two session day on Friday but I’m sure he will battle and that makes me confident this one will have more than 28.5 frames. Three of their last four matches in big events have gone to a decider and this one should go close to another. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/murphy-vs-hawkins-betting-opening-semi-final-all-set-up-for-a-classic 5pts J.Trump vs S.Bingham - Over 20.5 50+ breaks 4/5 Paddy Power I think this will be a high scoring match. Both men have scored well in this tournament so far. In his quarter final Trump had ten breaks of 50 or more and in his last match Bingham had nine breaks of 50 or more so that is 19 for the 26 frames they won. I’m pretty confident once the two settle down there will be lots of one visit snooker in this match and with it likely to have around 30 frames at least the over 20.5 50+ breaks looks a touch low here. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/trump-vs-bingham-betting-second-semi-final-set-to-be-exciting

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Re: World Championship - 18 Apr - 4 May Semi final preview : Shaun Murphy vs Barry Hawkins Murphy to win 17-14 10/1 paddy power 17-15 10/1 paddy power Over 3.5 centuries in the match 11/10 paddy power Over 21.5 match 50 breaks in the match evens paddy power 147 in the march 9/1 paddy power This match is going to be very close with some high scoring as these two can pile on the breaks They are playing fantastically well and are capable of winning this title if Hawkins can produce what he did in the previous rounds we could have a classic on our hands

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Re: World Championship - 18 Apr - 4 May B.Hawkins to beat S.Murphy, 2pts @ 2/1 Bet365 B.Hawkins (+2.5 frames) to beat S.Murphy, 3pts @ 6/5 Paddy Power As Kev states, Barry will be shattered but I still fancy him for this semi. He loves the Crucible, is solid under pressure and is a fighter. There's no way he's going to give this up after overcoming Robbo last night in that final frame. All 3 of his matches have been close and that iron nerve has stood him in good stead, last frame decider against Selt & Robbo and 13-11 over Mark Allen. Murphy, meanwhile, isn't playing as well as people are making out (in my opinion of course). Admittedly, he's won 3 matches convincingly and has scored a few tons en route. But, let's not kid ourselves; Hull & Perry did not do themselves justice and McGill probably just couldn't cope with the emotion & pressure being 1 session away from a semi final on his Crucible debut. Scoring-wise, Murphy has hit the fewest 50+ breaks over the remaining semi finalists, with just 20 in the 36 frames he has won. Contrast that with Hawkins' 24 or Judd Trump's 26 and you can see why I'm not that impressed. That said, I'll balance this by saying he's had a good season and should be the freshest going into this. At the prices though, I'll take Barry outright and on the 'cap. J.Trump, over 2.5 centuries, v S.Bingham, 5pts @ 5/4 Bet365 Quite simple for me, Judd is in cracking form and hitting them in off the lampshades. He'll be delighted to have avoided Ronnie and I'm sure he believes he's on the verge of a maiden Crucible crown. If he does win, he'll want to do it in style and that's why I like his chances of hitting 3 tons in this. Essentially, I think he'll have 17 chances at this as I believe he will win so we need a ton every 5.67 frames. In the QF, he hit 4 in 13 frames so statistically, he should do it. Ok, he'd only hit 3 before that in 23 frames but tournament average, he's at 1 every 5.14 frames (7 in 36) but, crucially, he's improving day by day. He's also hit 26 50+ breaks in the 36 frames he's won so he only needs to convert a few more of those and we'll be ok. I'm definitely looking forward to this match and in a 4 session match, I'm confident he'll hit 1 in at least 3 of them to bring this bet home.

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Re: World Championship - 18 Apr - 4 May Final preview: Murphy to win the first session 4-0 8/1 paddy power Murphy to win first four frames outright 7/5 paddy power Murphy to win first session outright evens paddy power The thing about this final is that it is either too close to call or the favourite will run away with and i think Murphy will run away with it because his opponent has had a tough match against Trump and he could be tired

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Re: World Championship - 18 Apr - 4 May Final preview: 5pts Over 4.5 centuries 3/4 Betway There is one price which I like the look of in this final and that is over 4.5 centuries. The way Murphy is scoring it is no exaggeration to say that he could cover this line on his own but I’m confident once Bingham settles down and adjusts to the occasion that he will score as well. Both men prefer getting the balls open and clearing them up and I fully expect to see a number of frames won in one visit and often with big breaks. The sponsors have put up £200 to charity for each ton in this tournament so the incentive is there for both men to continue to look to entertain in this final and given that the line basically reflects a need of one ton per session with an extra one on top somewhere it looks perfectly within reach. Both semi-finals covered this line and I expect the final to do the same as well. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/murphy-vs-bingham-betting-englishmen-set-to-battle-it-out-for-the-title

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Re: World Championship - 18 Apr - 4 May S.Murphy (-3.5 frames) to beat S.Bingham, 4pts @ Evs SportingBet S.Murphy v S.Bingham, under 23.5 50+ breaks, 6pts @ 5/6 Skybet S.Bingham, under 1.5 centuries, v S.Murphy, 3pts @ 5/4 Bet365 Not the final everyone expected but should be a good one all the same. Shaun Murphy has had a dream run to the final and, in fairness, has played very well into the bargain. He's had a great season and is coming here the freshest after Bingo had to overcome a final frame with Judd Trump last night & a gruelling win over Ronnie in the quarters. Shaun meanwhile finished Hawkins off with almost a full session to spare. I think fatigue will play a part today and I wouldn't be surprised to see Murphy race out of the blocks again, putting the match to bed early. Therefore, I'm on the handicap at 3.5 frames, especially as 8 of the last 9 finals have covered this line. In terms of 50+ breaks, I understand the reason for 23.5 being the line but finals have a habit of not producing the same standard due to the tension. Assuming this final went the full 35 frame distance (which I don't think it will), we'd need 69% of the frames to have a 50+ break. Only once has that percentage been covered in the last 9 finals and that was when Ronnie went century crazy, hitting 6 and 14 50+ in the process. That's a standard I cannot see today. 10 of the last 18 finalists have failed to hit 2 centuries in the best of 35 match and, of the 8 to do it, this was split across 5 players and 5 of the best ton makers; Ronnie, Selby, Higgins, Trump & Hawkins. Of the 10 not to hit 2 tons, this list consists of Robbo, Selby, Higgins, Ronnie (x2), Dott (x2), Ebdon, Carter & Murphy himself. Only 2 of those 9 has seen both finalists hit 2 tons; Higgins v Selby and Ronnie v Hawkins. Murphy is smashing them easily enough so, of the 2, I'm guessing it will be Bingo who will struggle to get 2 tons and I'm happy to be on the Bingo unders here. Good luck everyone :ok

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Re: World Championship - 18 Apr - 4 May

Final preview: Murphy to win the first session 4-0 8/1 paddy power Murphy to win first four frames outright 7/5 paddy power :D Murphy to win first session outright evens paddy power The thing about this final is that it is either too close to call or the favourite will run away with and i think Murphy will run away with it because his opponent has had a tough match against Trump and he could be tired
Well done to Bingham but i forgot about my bet that i won earlier

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