MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting

[danj2202]

The fun gets started tonight, lets hope for a successful season - stick your bets in here Good luck everyone :ok

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Cards (ml) to bt Cubs 5pts @ 2.00 Paddy Cards (-2.5) to bt Cubs 2pts @ 3.90 Bet365 I'm siding with Wainwright over Lester tonight on opening day. The Cubs enter the 'fruition' stage of their overhaul with much more than recently expected of them, but I much prefer the late and post-season Jon Lester than I do the April Jon Lester. As a Red Sox fan I am used to his performance improving the further towards the business end the season gets. Adam Wainwright meanwhile has cracked out to strong starts over the last couple of years before declining after the All-Star break. Last season Wainwright put together a 1.20 ERA through his first 6 games until the end of April, and whilst Lester's stats need to be adjusted to take into account he's moved from the AL to the NL, I still expect Wainwright to get the better of the duel tonight. As has been the case recently with the Cards though, can the offense actually provide the run support to back up the strong pitching performances? They've added Heyward and Reynolds, and can justifiably hope for upwards of 45 HRs from that pair this season, Matt Carpenter has spoken of bringing more aggression into his lead-off duties, and Mike Matheny has spoken often about how they're going to be more aggressive in general. The proof of the pudding is as always in the eating, but I'll have a nibble at them proving this isn't just hyperbole tonight

[danj2202]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Great start for you there Pete, Wainwright looks like the surgery has done the trick and a pitcher to rely on again. Time for me to dip my toe in the water. 2 pts Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) to beat New York Yankees 3.10 Bet365 I dont know where the offensive production comes from for New York, they are a team of aging players and younger players that have a lot to prove with the bat such as Jeter's heir apparent Didi Gregorius. The youngster Drew Hutchison gets the start at Yankee Stadium for the Jays and a lineup that consists of the aforementioned Gregorius, the notoriously slow starting Teixeira, returning from suspension A-Rod, Carlos Beltran after surgery in the offseason......get the picture? it should pose a hell of a lot less problems for him than the lineup that Masahiro Tanaka will face for Toronto. Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson is a headache for any pitcher and while Tanaka is the bigger name in this matchup, I cannot realistically consider backing any pitcher who we know is trying to pitch through elbow trouble - he should have written off a year and had the Tommy John surgery midway through last year when the UCL tear was diagnosed. On that basis alone it is worth a chance for me on Toronto to start with a win . 2 pts Washington Nationals (-1.5) to beat NY Mets 2.30 Ladbrokes The Nats start the season as World Series favourites with their free agent Prize Max Scherzer, the former AL Cy Young award winner comes across to the national league where it s "easier" and will face the Mets in the opener. New York have not been a powerhouse on offense for a number of seasons relying on David Wright and Lucas Duda for power. The Nats do have some injury concerns heading into the opener themselves and it could be argued that they didnt really need pitching and the money spent on Scherzer could have been spent more effectively bolstering the offensive side, a power hittng first baseman would have been a nice addition for example, the Nats are the better team, they have the edge in the pitching matchup as Bartolo Colon returns yet again at 41 years old and at some point he must cease to be effective but enthusiasm is kept in check and I certainly have no interest in buying extra runs in this game. 4 pts Miami Marlins (-1.5) to beat Atlanta Braves 2.67 Bet365 2 pts Miami Marlins (-3.5) to beat Atlanta Braves 5.75 Bet365 The Braves have stripped it down as part of a rebuild trading away anything people would take, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Evan Gattis are all productive pieces that have left in the offseason and have been replaced by players with questions to answer like Nick Markakis, ex Marlin Cameron Maybin and former White Sox AJ Pierzynski and Carlos Quentin. They will not be as potent at the plate as the team that folded tamely down the stretch last season and this Marlins team has some nice pieces on offense in particular Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yellich in the outfield. I am a big fan of Henderson Alvarez who will pitch tonight and he had an incredible record at home last season (7-2 1.60 ERA in 14 home starts) and I am happy to take a run line play against Julio Teheran who hasnt been great this spring and carries a 4.26 ERA in this ball park in 2 starts I may play some others but thats it for now

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Blue Jays / Yankees Over 8 runs (Asian) 3pts @ 2.00 Bet365 I share Dan's concerns about Tanaka, and the Jays have the offensive output to take advantage for sure, but I also just can't bring myself to trust Hutchison enough to take Toronto to win. I can certainly see a game where the Blue Jays put runs up, whilst Hutchison allows the Yankees hitters to respond in a likewise fashion so the game at the very least hits the 8 line available at a generous Evens with money back if it finishes bang on.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Brewers (-1.5) to bt Rockies 3pts @ 29/20 Bet365 Kyle Lohse has been a very good April pitcher over the last 3 seasons, compiling a 2.31 ERA over 16 starts for a 9-3 record. He's put together a 2.86 ERA through 28 games at Miller Park since signing for Milwaukee, and is 5-0 against the Rockies through his last 7 starts against them. That should be more than enough to get the better of Kyle Kendrick and Colorado tonight. Marlins (-1.5) to bt Braves 3pts @ 6/4 (Bet365) Completely agree with Dan above. The Braves have stripped their staff of anybody they could get rid of. Heyward showed last night what the Braves will be missing, plus being without Upton and Gattis, and just yesterday they shipped star closer Kimbrel to the Padres. Flamethrower Alvarez looks a cracking bet to continue his excellent record at Marlins Park

[adamskijc]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting good luck chaps, gonna see how things pan out before having a go.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting

Cards (ml) to bt Cubs 5pts @ 2.00 Paddy Cards (-2.5) to bt Cubs 2pts @ 3.90 Bet365

Blue Jays / Yankees Over 8 runs (Asian) 3pts @ 2.00 Bet365

Brewers (-1.5) to bt Rockies 3pts @ 29/20 Bet365 Marlins (-1.5) to bt Braves 3pts @ 6/4 (Bet365)

2-3-0 Staked 16pts Returned 17.80pts P/L +1.80pts

[danj2202]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting

2 pts Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) to beat New York Yankees 3.10 Bet365:) 2 pts Washington Nationals (-1.5) to beat NY Mets 2.30 Ladbrokes:( 4 pts Miami Marlins (-1.5) to beat Atlanta Braves 2.67 Bet365:( 2 pts Miami Marlins (-3.5) to beat Atlanta Braves 5.75 Bet365:(

1-3 total staked 10 pts total returns 6.20 profit -3.80 pts onwards and upwards

[danj2202]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting 3 pts Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) to beat San Francisco Giants 3.15 Bet365 2 pts Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) to beat San Francisco Giants 6.25 Bet365 5 pts Over 8.5 total runs 2.00 Coral I am willing to take a punt in this matchup. There should be runs, the Diamondbacks have plenty of pop in their lineup with the likes of Goldschmidt and Trumbo and are massively capable of putting a crooked number on the scoreboard. Ryan Vogelsong has the honour of following staff ace and World Series MVP Madison Bumgarner tonight. in 13 April starts over the last three seasons Vogelsong has a 1-4 record with an ERA of 5.42. In 13 starts against Arizona in the same time frame is 1-4 with a 5.70 ERA and in 4 starts at Chase Field is 1-2 with a 7.65 ERA. There is every reason to believe that the historical slow starter could struggle tonight and I will throw a bit of cash at Arizona at decent prices. Now, teh fly in the ointment is Rubby de la Rosa on debut for Arizona after coming from Boston in the Wade Miley trade. he was BRUTAL for the Red Sox last season and while I acknowledge trusting him is something of a risk, I will cover the over at 8.5 to get our cash back just in case. 3 pts Colorado Rockies to beat Milwaukee Brewers 2.20 Skybet The Brewers could miss their most potent offensive weapon in Ryan Braun tonight after he left the opener early, taking that into account and the emergence of Jordan Lyles amongst the steaming hot mess of the Colorado pitching last season, he is under rated and the price is under valued here. Lyles was nothing but solid last season and has a good record against these Brewers lasting 7 innings in 4 of 5 with a 1.17 ERA (granted the other start wasnt very good). Matt Garza was not his usual self last season and has followed it up with his usual poor spring performance. Following on from a 10-0 victory in the opener I will take the Rox to follow up tonight at odds against. Good luck all who play

[danj2202]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Am at work so will update the figures later 4 pts Detroit Tigers (-1.5) to beat Minnesota Twins 2.05 Ladbrokes 2 pts Detroit Tigers (-3.5) to beat Minnesota Twins 3.90 bet365 I was unsure whether to play this as I like Ricky Nolasco as a pitcher but you cant get away from his struggles last season and he lacks consistency these days. Whne his stuff is on he is great but he is off more than on these days and I am going to side with the ultra consistent Anibal Sanchez backed by the potent Tigers offense here. Back with more later but thats the end of my lunch break

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Good stuff yesterday Dan, called both perfectly (unfortunately so with regards to Rubbish de la Rosa :( ) :ok

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Red Sox (-1.5) to bt Phillies 5pts @ 2.10 Red Sox (-3.5) to bt Phillies 2pts @ 4.25 The Red Sox hurt Phillies ace Cole Hamels on Sunday night, and look to dish out the same sort of punishment to a pitcher in Harang who isn't in the same league as Hamels. On the mound for Boston is Rick Porcello, who I actually expect more of than opening day starter Clay Buchholz this season. If my expectations are to be realised then he needs to have a strong outing against a feeble Phillies offense Mets (ml) to bt Nationals 4pts @ 2.15 Mets (-1.5) to bt Nationals 1.5pts @ 3.05 I

[danj2202]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting 4 pts Kansas City Royals to beat Chicago White Sox 1.83 Skybet 2 pts Kansas City Royals (-1.5) to beat Chicago White Sox 2.75 William Hill Much as this breaks my heart, Kansas City always seem to play my Sox well, and particularly Quintana who will pitch for Chicago tonight. Jose Quintana for me is one of the most under rated pitchers in baseball and I anticipate plenty of opportunity to make money on him this year, however, tonight is not that night. In his career against the Royals (12 starts) he is 0-6 with an ERA of 4.38 and was tagged for the loss in 3 of 4 against KC last season. Danny Duffy will oppose for Kansas City, whose bats had success in their opening day 9-1 victory against Chicago and he is solid if not spectacular with a 1-1 record and a sub 3.5 ERA in 3 starts against the White Sox. All being told it is much easier to build a case to back Kansas City tonight and I feel they should be shorter than the prices available and by proxy there is value there. 4 pts Boston Red Sox (-1.5) to beat Philadelphia Phillies 2.25 Bet365 1 pts Boston Red Sox (-5.5) to beat Philadelphia Phillies 10.00 Bet365 A pitcher who has arguably the best season of their career is not to be trusted and to be honest I never really trusted Aaron Harang in the first place and coming off a career low ERA and 4th highest win total of his career I am looking for some regression towards his career ERA which is almost a run higher than the 3.57 number Harang posted last year - on a much better Braves team than this Phillies outfit. Much like Pete I have reasonably high hopes for Rick Porcello this year and this Phillies offense is woeful and shouldnt put many runs on the board - they were the worst offense in Spring Training this year and thats not really any worse than expected of the aging outfit. Boston shouldnt need to club 5 home runs like they did against Hamels on opening day to take this matchup - the drift in Bostons price confuses me somewhat, but hell thats to our advantage I guess. 4 pts Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) to beat Tampa Bay Rays 2.75 Skybet 2 pts Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) to beat Tampa Bay Rays 5.75 Bet365 I am not sure what the basis is for Tampa being favourites in this game, granted it is only slight favourites but the Rays are a team making some serious adjustments to life without their long time manager Joe Madden who now is in charge at the Cubs and against the reigning division champs Baltimore they have not enjoyed much success. Jake Odorizzi will pitch tonight for Tampa, four of this Orioles lineup hit home runs against Odorizzi last year and his ERA against the O's was 6.52 for the season. MIguel Gonzalez is solid in opposition for Baltimore tonight and carries a 3-1 record and 2.64 ERA in 5 career starts at Tropicana Field. Baltimore has been successful in 9 of its last 12 games in Tampa. So I am sure we can all see why Tampa are slight favourites to win right? 3 pts Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers Over 8.5 runs 1.91 Stan James I dont usually like the over early in the season but this game is indoors so the cold wont affect the ball and these pitchers had relative struggles last season. While Wily Peralta exceeded expectations, I trust my eye and his number is false, I expect regression this year and I expect runs. Peralta carries a 6.46 career ERA against these Rockies, he allowed 8 runs in just 16 innings over 2 starts against them last season. Eddie Butler will oppose, he was one of a multitude of people to pitch for the Rockies last year - I was in fact awaiting a phone call myself at one point!! he was ineffective allowing 12 runs in 16 innings over his 3 starts, an ERA of 6.75, its a small sample size but both these teams are capable of putting runs on the board and the pitchers tonight could help the cause 3 pts San Diego Padres to beat Los Angeles Dodgers 2.15 Betvictor 1 pts San Diego Padres (-3.5) to beat Los Angeles Dodgers 6.25 Bet365 These are not the light hitting Padres of old, they are perfectly capable of putting runs on the board and Brandon McCarthy pitches tonight for Los Angeles. McCarthy was disgustingly bad early on last season pitching for Arizona prior to the trade to New York when he transformed into a reasonable starting pitcher. I am inclined to trust the poor start more than the strong finish, especially with his poor numbers from the spring. Andrew Cashner was nothing but solid when healthy last year, he had a 2.55 ERA for the season (19 starts) which dropped to 1.43 at home in 11 starts - the win totals will improve for these pitchers with the offensive output. Over the last three seasons Cashner has consistently been a run lower than McCarthy with an ERA of 3.06 compared to McCarthys number of 4.00 - I know who I am trusting with my money in this game. Mets is a brave call Pete - though I am glad you finally came out and admitted it with deGrom........whens Kyle Hendricks pitching? :rollin Trying not to get carried away here as its early on but theres quite a few I like tonight and restraint cost me a profit on opening night good luck all who play EDIT (May be back for one more later dependent on prices)

[danj2202]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting

Good stuff yesterday Dan' date=' called both perfectly (unfortunately so with regards to Rubbish de la Rosa :( ) :ok[/quote'] yep cheers dude, was always teh risk trusting poor pitching, was a sensible cover really

[danj2202]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Ok, this is something of an experiment Daily Double - Giancarlo Stanton to hit a home run and Miami Marlins to beat Atlanta Braves - 1pts @ 8.00 Paddy Power I dont really have a great case to make as to why the Marlins will win this game, Tom Koehler is winless against the Braves in his career and isnt exacty a top level starter, however this Braves team should be less potent than recent years despite the fact they have won the first two games of this set. Stanton has a decent record in small sample size against Shelby Miller tonights pitcher making his Braves debut after being traded from the Cardinals. Stanton is 3 for 5 with 2 home runs against Miller and has been quiet in the series to this point, his is not a bat that stays quiet for too long and we are on at a great price if he continues to see the ball well out of Shelby Millers hand. I figure its worth a shot and see how we get on as these markets intrigue me somewhat that is my lot for the night - good luck all who play

[danj2202]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting

3 pts Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) to beat San Francisco Giants 3.15 Bet365:( 2 pts Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) to beat San Francisco Giants 6.25 Bet365:( 5 pts Over 8.5 total runs 2.00 Coral:) 3 pts Colorado Rockies to beat Milwaukee Brewers 2.20 Skybet:)

4 pts Detroit Tigers (-1.5) to beat Minnesota Twins 2.05 Ladbrokes :) 2 pts Detroit Tigers (-3.5) to beat Minnesota Twins 3.90 bet365:)

5-5 total staked 29pts total returns 38.80 pts profit +9.80 pts rest of tonights slate to go as well, :hope

[Vilamoura04]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Some brilliant write ups gents, congratulations, I will be reading with interest this season please keep it up. Very early days so not a big enough sample size to draw conclusions but interesting that so far the moneyline picks have been the most profitable. My firt go of the season later with a tentative two for me (hence the stakes). Sorry guys Im not much of a writer on MLB. Basically I select based purely on which pitchers I read people more knowledgeable than me rate or don't rate. It's an approach that has given me modest success. 1 point NY Mets (Harvey) at Washington (2.05 generally available) 1 point CHI White Sox (Danks) at KC (2.15 betvic)

[danj2202]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting

4 pts Kansas City Royals to beat Chicago White Sox 1.83 Skybet:) 2 pts Kansas City Royals (-1.5) to beat Chicago White Sox 2.75 William Hill:) 4 pts Boston Red Sox (-1.5) to beat Philadelphia Phillies 2.25 Bet365:( 1 pts Boston Red Sox (-5.5) to beat Philadelphia Phillies 10.00 Bet365:( 4 pts Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) to beat Tampa Bay Rays 2.75 Skybet:( 2 pts Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) to beat Tampa Bay Rays 5.75 Bet365:( 3 pts Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers Over 8.5 runs 1.91 Stan James :) 3 pts San Diego Padres to beat Los Angeles Dodgers 2.15 Betvictor:( 1 pts San Diego Padres (-3.5) to beat Los Angeles Dodgers 6.25 Bet365:(

Daily Double - Giancarlo Stanton to hit a home run and Miami Marlins to beat Atlanta Braves - 1pts @ 8.00 Paddy Power:(

Will update figures post writing previews for tonight which may be fairly short notice for some of the games 8-12 total staked 54 pts total returns 57.35 pts profit +3.35 pts

[Vilamoura04]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting ignore me im an idiot

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting

Red Sox (-1.5) to bt Phillies 5pts @ 2.10 Red Sox (-3.5) to bt Phillies 2pts @ 4.25 Mets (ml) to bt Nationals 4pts @ 2.15 Mets (-1.5) to bt Nationals 1.5pts @ 3.05 Pirates (-1.5) to bt Reds 4pts @ 2.45 Pirates (-2.5) to bt Reds 1.5pts @ 3.50 Tigers (-1.5) to bt Twins 5pts @ 2.20 Tigers (-3.5) to bt Twins 2pts @ 4.35

4-9-0 Staked 41pts Returned 37.50pts P/L -3.50pts

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting

Adding three more, all 1 point stakes: CLE Indians (Carrasco) at Houston (1.92 betvic) - Carrasco is unpredictable but had a good record v Houston last year CHI White Sox (Quintana) at KC Royals (2.15 betvic) - Quintana is reliable if not spectacular and could provide a platform for dogs Chicago to beat the odds against a team which aren't big hitters. SD Padres (Hellickson) v SF Giants (1.8 slybet) - Price bit shorter than hoped for but SF have a few injuries to key men

Hey Vila, these were last night's match-ups buddy :ok gl with your White Sox and Mets bets :hope

[Twinky99]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Good write up gentlemen. Keep it up!

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Twins/Tigers - no Home Run - 2pts @ 3/1 Bet365 I think the 3/1 for there being no home run in this match is a good value price. Whilst of course the likelihood is there will be somebody go long, that's factored into the price. On the mounds are Greene for the Tigers, he pitched here for the Yankees last year and had an excellent outing going 7 innings for just 2 ERs, and Gibson for the Twins - his ERA of almost 4.5 through 31 starts is nothing to write home about, BUT he is a massively ground ball pitcher (ranked 7th amongst qualifying pitchers last year) and gave up only 12 HRs through over 170 innings pitched. White Sox (ml) to bt Royals - 4.5pts @ 2.25 Boylesports White Sox (-2.5) to bt Royals - 1.5pts @ 4.10 Bet365 John Danks is on the hill for the White Sox as they look to rescue something from this opening series, and whilst his career stats are distinctly average at best (72-85, 4.28 ERA), one ground he has always pitched well is Kauffman Stadium, home of the Royals. In 10 starts there he has a 4-0 record with an ERA of 1.73. Opposing him will be Edinson Volquez on his first appearance in a Royals shirt. Last season marked the first time since 2008 he had a somewhere approaching decent season, and 2013 in particular was one to forget. He's now left Pittsburgh, and joined the Royals where it remains to be seen if he can replicate the record he had with the Pirates' coaching staff. At the prices, given Danks' record in this ballpark, he's seeing my money for sure

[Vilamoura04]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting

Hey Vila' date=' these were last night's match-ups buddy :ok gl with your White Sox and Mets bets :hope[/quote'] Ha yeah how embarrassing. Can only win 1/3 when the results are already in :p

[danj2202]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Love that no home run bet pete. Weather forecast looks helpful for keeping the ball in the park too

[danj2202]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Right, I looked at Oakland and Toronto but both are a lot shorter than I expected and I have no plays for tonight, I am off to watch the darts and the golf and will see you all tomorrow - good luck with the posted picks for tonight (especially the White Sox ones!!!!!)

[danj2202]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Never trust a gambler 3 pts San Diego Padres (-1.5) to beat San Francisco Giants 2.75 William Hill This is quite simple, despite it being early the Giants are suffering, they have some injures early, Brandon Belt is a player they were hoping to lean on this year adding to the injuries the pitching staff is suffering through and the absence of the Panda who now resides in Boston. Tim Hudson pitches tonight and he was really streaky last year winning and losing games in bunches, he didnt fare too well against the Padres of last year, this years Padres are vastly superior offensively, which lets face it isnt actually all that hard. Ian Kennedy has a cracking record against the Giants over the last three seasons and considering the Giants offense appears to be trending down and he should be able to bank on increased offensive backing then I think the Friars are worth a small play tonight

[danj2202]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting

3 pts San Diego Padres (-1.5) to beat San Francisco Giants 2.75 William Hill :(

Padres created more opportunities to score but paid the price for poor situational hitting

8-13

total staked 57 pts

total returns 57.35 pts

profit +0.35 pts

[danj2202]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting 6 pts Texas Rangers to beat Houston Astros 2.00 Bet365 3 pts Texas Rangers (-1.5) to beat Houston Astros 3.15 Bet365 Again I am unsure of these prices, it can be difficult to get a handle early in the season and you have to rely on your opinions on players rather than what they are actually doing in the present, Derek Holland is a reliable starting pitcher with experience who missed most of last year through injury. Collin McHugh will oppose for Houston and while he had clearly the best season of his career last year, I very much live by the motto that you have to do it a second time to make me a believer and the 27 year old gets that opportunity starting tonight. I just get the sense that this game is priced up as if it was being played last season - clearly it isnt. The Rangers were bad last year, they were decimated by injury and this lineup has potential to put runs on the board in a hurry, as it has already done in this young season while their Houston counterparts have scuffled somewhat through their first three games.

[danj2202]

Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting 5 pts Detroit Tigers to beat Cleveland Indians 2.05 Coral 2 pts Detroit Tigers (-1.5) to beat Cleveland Indians 2.80 Bet365 1 pts Detroit Tigers (-3.5) to beat Cleveland Indians 5.50 Bet365 This is a case of trusting that Alfredo Simon returns to his performance of the first half of last season in Cincinnati rather than the level of pitching he showed post all star break. Cleveland will be hoping Zach McAllister pitches better than he did at all last season when his ERA was over 5. I did give McAllister the benefit of the doubt and checked going back 3 years, however his ERA in that period of time is still 4.30 and spikes above 5 in his 8 starts against Detroit. Its a case of trusting the numerous big bats in this Tigers lineup to punish a guy who realistically should probably be a relief pitcher more than the potential of Simon's 2nd half regression continuing into this season. The Tigers bats hit the Twins hard in their season opener which is encouraging. I dont anticipate playing anything else but will be taking a second look later just in case I have missed anything