Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Hi all, So, the flat is back (just about!) so it's time to start a new thread. This will focus solely on the flat turf and primarily on 5f-1m 4yo+ handicaps, although there will also be a fair amount of other events thrown in too. I've got a 50 point betting bank set aside and this is spread between Bet365, Bet Victor, Coral & Paddy Power. All bets will take advantage of BOG which are offered by all those bookies. Will update P/L reguarly. Bring on Donny! :) Edit: Will update this first post with P/L: [TABLE=border: 0, cellpadding: 0, cellspacing: 0, width: 248] [TR] [TD=colspan: 2]31 August 2015[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bets[/TD] [TD]206[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Winners (Win & E/W)[/TD] [TD]28[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Placed (E/W)[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Total Staked (pts)[/TD] [TD]200.50[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Overall P/L (pts)[/TD] [TD]+16.47[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Strike Rate[/TD] [TD]13.6%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Yield[/TD] [TD]8.2%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Mar & Apr[/TD] [TD]+2.61[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]May[/TD] [TD]+12.36[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Jun[/TD] [TD]+2.46[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Jul[/TD] [TD]-12.18[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Aug[/TD] [TD]+11.22[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season So here we go, as part of my new found discipline (:rollin ) I've avoided the Brocklesby - usually love a sentimental bet on the first event of the flat season but keeping the powder dry this time. There's plenty more races to lose money on ... 2.35 Doncaster (11 runners) Astaire looks to have been found a perfect opportunity to re-ignite his career. Highly tried last year and never really landing a blow, this is much more suitable and should take all the beating with with conditions fine (even if the rain does come). Astaire 1pt Win @ 3/1 BetVictor 3.10 Doncaster (22 runners) Buckstay may be 0/12 on the turf, but is usually consistent and runs his race. Today is the first time a claimer has been used and the 7lbs off puts him on a handy mark. Bucktay 0.5pt E/W @ 10/1 BetVictor 3.45 Doncaster (22 runners) A really interesting Lincoln, but not one for getting too carried away with, so a small wager on Fire Ship who looks high enough in the weights but has been running well in better company than this and claimer should keep him competitive on a straight course he will enjoy (1213347). Fire Ship 0.5pt E/W @ 33/1 BetVictor

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season Not a bad opening day on Saturday, Buckstay earns a little place money and Astaire only beaten by an impressive improver. The less said about Fire Ship, the better. It seems a long time since Doncaster and don't quite get the lull between the Lincoln and the rest of the flat season, but anyhow, it's Musselburgh and things slowly starting to to ramp up ... 3.30 Musselburgh Hard to see past Robot Boy here, the 5yo goes well fresh and acts in conditions. Recieves weight all round and should go very well. Robot Boy 1pt Win @ 6/4 Coral 4.00 Musselburgh With question marks about the lay offs for many of these, I'm siding with two against the field who should be fit after recent run outs, both of whom have decent chances. Clumber Street 0.5pt Win @ 11/2 BetVictor Viva Verglas 0.5pt Win @ 7/1 Coral

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season Sunday's Musselburgh card was poor and was swerved, however it's Redcar on Bank Holiday Monday and there looks to be some half decent contests but only one where I feel comfortable playing and taking a couple against the field ... 3.55 Redcar Breakable is less exposed than many of these and always seems to run her race. On a decent mark with Jockey's claim. She's made the frame the last 4 starts, including round here LTO and in a better race at Doncaster before that. There's not much pace in the race and therefore a chance is also taken with Rodrigo De Torres. The 8yo is now on a career low mark and dropped to a class 5 on the turf for the first time. Breakable 0.5pt E/W @ 10/1 BetVictor Rodrigo De Torres 0.25pt E/W @ 33/1 BetVictor

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season A really nice card at Pontefract but just the one selection ... 2.00 Pontefract Trinity Star is at a career high mark but should have more to offer. Concern over his freshness but looks to have a strong chance and Bet365 offering attractive looking odds at present. Trinity Star 1pt Win @ 13/2 Bet365

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season Trinity Star finished 3rd yesterday - getting closer to the first win of the flat season! Two flat cards tomorrow and have selections at both ... 2.20 Catterick Finished last season poorly but has always seemed to be an early season horse and goes well fresh. 1lb lower than last win and conditions fine. Half A Billion 1pt Win @ 7/1 PP 4.20 Catterick Powerful Presence is 121122 here. Is on a decent mark and is dropped to a class 5 where he is 112. Has already been nibbled at and looks to have a good chance. Powerful Presence 1pt Win @ 7/2 PP 3.10 Nottingham Spinatrix looks the obvious contender here but having only her 2nd start at 5f and having never won coming back from a break, is passed over at short odds. Preference is for Justineo, who despite carrying a penalty, should be competive. His last start in the UK at York has worked out well (Naadirr winning the Cammidge at Donny) and the drying ground will help. Justineo 1pt Win @ 4/1 Bet365

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season Just the one for tomorrow as all eyes get ready for Aintree ... 1.30 Leicester Keen on the chance of Wilde Inspiration in the opener here, dropped in class, goes well fresh and consistent. Should at least place. Wilde Inspiration 0.75pt E/W @ 6/1 Bet365

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season Not much time for a write up but one selection today ... 2.45 Newcastle My Name is Rio 1pt Win @ 6/1 Coral

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season 3.50 Redcar Border Bandit has an excellent each way chance in this, dropped back to a class 4 where his record is 3611U2. Conditions fine and Winston been on board for 4 of his previous wins. Trainer form at the course a slight worry, but should hopefully go well regardless. Border Bandit 0.5pt E/W @ 16/1 BetVictor

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season I'm going to Ripon tomorrow so hopefully my presence will bring a bit of luck ... ! 2.30 Ripon Like the look of Nezar here. Won on debut so goes OK fresh and if forgiving last run at Ascot, should be very competitive in an easier race. Nezar 1pt Win @ 8/1 Bet365 3.05 Ripon Looks wide open but a chance is taken with Silvery Moon who would have undoubtably needed the run last time out when getting beaten into 2nd by Master Of Finance. 6lb swing with the same horse today and with no issues with conditions. Silvery Moon 1pt Win @ 7/1 BetVictor 3.40 Ripon Really interesting race and the Kevin Ryan trained Weld Al Emarat, who won on racecourse debut LTO despite being as green as cucumber gets the nod. Weld Al Emarat 1pt Win @ 3/1 BetVictor 4.15 Ripon Alaskan Bullet is on a losing run but is on attractive mark and this easier than some he has contested. Has gone well fresh before (won on debut) and could pop up at a decent price Alaskan Buller 1pt Win @ 12/1 Coral

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season Cracking day at Ripon today - very picturesque course and really friendly. Still no bloody winners though! :lol

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season Going to Nottingham tomorrow which I'm looking forward to - number 21 for me and another one off the list. No time to write up my analysis but having a dabble in each of the races, probably against my better judgement! Nottingham 4.50 Riflescope 1pt Win @ 9/2 Bet365 5.25 Wonder Laish 2pt Win @ 13/8 Bet365 5.55 Our Kylie 1pt Win @ 7/1 Paddy Power 6.25 Alans Pride 0.5pt E/W @ 20/1 BetVictor 6.55Flickas Boy 1pt Win @ 8/1 Bet365 | Tecumseh 1pt Win @ 8/1 Bet365 7.25 Roys Legacy 1pt Win @ 4/1 BetVictor 7.55 Cosmic Statesman 1pt Win @ 9/2 BetVictor

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season Finally! My first winner! Flicka's Boy did the business at Nottingham yesterday and it could have been a lot better with 2 seconds as well. Enjoyed the course - my 21st - one of the most compact I've been to and not a bad card in fairness. Anyway, my P/L after that first winner is below. Hopefully now I've got the first one on the board, more will follow ... [TABLE=width: 220]

[TR] [TD=colspan: 2]19 April 2015[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bets[/TD] [TD]22[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Winners (Win & E/W)[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Placed (E/W)[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Total Staked (pts)[/TD] [TD]21.50[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Overall P/L (pts)[/TD] [TD]-7.59 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Strike Rate[/TD] [TD]4.5%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Yield[/TD] [TD]-35.3%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season Two good cards at Ponte and Windsor tomorrow ... Pontefract 3.20 Out Do 1pt Win @ 10/1 Bet365 4.50 Margerets Gift 1pt Win @ 7/2 Bet365 Windsor 5.25 Groundworker 1pt Win @ 4/1 Paddy Power 6.25 Divine 1pt Win @ 10/1 Bet365

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season Brilliant day today - 1 non runner, 1 unplaces and 2 winners at 10/1 and 14/1 (BOG). Funny what a difference 24 hours can make ... [TABLE=width: 220]

[TR] [TD=colspan: 2]20 April 2015[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bets[/TD] [TD]25[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Winners (Win & E/W)[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Placed (E/W)[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Total Staked (pts)[/TD] [TD]24.50[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Overall P/L (pts)[/TD] [TD]14.41[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Strike Rate[/TD] [TD]12.0%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Yield[/TD] [TD]58.8%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season Hoping my luck can continue, just the one selection tomorrow ... Brighton 7.50 Poetic Choice 1pt Win @ 4/1 Bet365

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season Had a look at Catterick tomorrow, nothing jumped out, but there's one at Epsom tomorrow who looks to have a decent chance ... Epsom 2.10 - Smoothtalkinrascal usually comes good at this time of year (21281 in April). Conditions should be fine and on attractive mark. Smoothtalkinrascal 1pt Win @ 5/1 Coral

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season It's Friday again! Made all the better by the fact it's payday tomorrow too! Couple of decent cards tomorrow but the two selections come from Doncaster ... Doncaster 3.25 Jolly Red Jeanz 1pt Win @ 7/1 Paddy Power 4.00 Sleepy Blue Ocean 1pt Win @ 9/1 Coral

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season Loads of racing to get stuck into on Saturday but with so much am just trying to stick to 5f and 6f all age sprint. Maybe going to go to Wetherby on Sunday if the weather is OK. Leicester 2.30 The Quiet Warrior 1pt Win @ 7/1 Coral 3.05 Nocturn 0.5pt E/W @ 14/1 Paddy Power Ripon 3.25 Clear Spring 0.5pt E/W @ 14/1 BetVictor | Duke Cosimo 1pt Win @ 13/2 Paddy Power

[mowgli77]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season

Loads of racing to get stuck into on Saturday but with so much am just trying to stick to 5f and 6f all age sprint. Maybe going to go to Wetherby on Sunday if the weather is OK. Leicester 2.30 The Quiet Warrior 1pt Win @ 7/1 Coral 3.05 Nocturn 0.5pt E/W @ 14/1 Paddy Power Ripon 3.25 Clear Spring 0.5pt E/W @ 14/1 BetVictor | Duke Cosimo 1pt Win @ 13/2 Paddy Power

I'm hoping Whoneedsrio is going to Wetherby on Sunday as I am planning on going for their first ever flat meeting. Let us know if you venture there and we'll meet up for a chat/drink/bet etc. Doesn't look a bad card at first glance. I'd probably go to Ripon or Donny tomorrow but it's the last home game of the season for us (Bradford City) and sure to be an emotional one as it's the minutes silence all across the country to remember those that died in the fire at Valley Parade 30 years ago.

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season

I'm hoping Whoneedsrio is going to Wetherby on Sunday as I am planning on going for their first ever flat meeting. Let us know if you venture there and we'll meet up for a chat/drink/bet etc. Doesn't look a bad card at first glance. I'd probably go to Ripon or Donny tomorrow but it's the last home game of the season for us (Bradford City) and sure to be an emotional one as it's the minutes silence all across the country to remember those that died in the fire at Valley Parade 30 years ago.

Yeah, it looks a decent card, I saw they were at full capacity in terms of runners so that's a good sign. Unfortunately, I was covered in baby sick at 1am this morning so will have to see how it goes. Enjoy the game, not sure enjoy is the right word actually, it's sure to be an emotional one as you say. Those revelations about your ex chairman are mad.

[mowgli77]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season

Yeah, it looks a decent card, I saw they were at full capacity in terms of runners so that's a good sign. Unfortunately, I was covered in baby sick at 1am this morning so will have to see how it goes. Enjoy the game, not sure enjoy is the right word actually, it's sure to be an emotional one as you say. Those revelations about your ex chairman are mad.

i haven't seen any revelations? Are they in the paper or something?

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season

i haven't seen any revelations? Are they in the paper or something?

http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/apr/15/bradford-fire-stafford-heginbotham-martin-fletcher

[mowgli77]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season

http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/apr/15/bradford-fire-stafford-heginbotham-martin-fletcher

It didn't click what you meant at first. Take those revelations with a wheelbarrow full of salt. They are the opinions of one very angry and bitter supporter that lost family in the fire and has been loking for someone to blame ever since. The tosser who writes for the Guardian is one of the most despicable journalists out there and managed to turn a story about Roy Hodgson attending today into an arson allegation and book advert for his mate Martin Fletcher. The person that started the fire accidentally is known to a few within Bradford and the twist was that his father was a fire chief, which is why it was hushed. Total accident and I believe 4 of the 8 buildings that our chairman used to own had been sold on already and on a few occasions the culprits were caught and had nothing to do with the chairman. Martin Fletcher and the journo have timed a book release/press release at the time when they will get most exposure. Fletcher previously wrote about Bradford and Hillsborough but didn't get published, the press release came out on the anniversary of Hillsborough and the book release is timed in conjunction with the 30 year anniversary of the fire. Politicians jumping on the bandwagon demanding a new enquiry just at the right time of an election and we risk a dignified event that we hold every year becoming a media circus and witch hunt. Have a read through this when you have a spare 10 mins, the ex chairmans son and others have commented: https://claretandbanter.uk/threads/wtf-breaking-news-on-guardian-website-heginbotham-linked-to-earlier-fires.44550/ :ok

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season

It didn't click what you meant at first. Take those revelations with a wheelbarrow full of salt. They are the opinions of one very angry and bitter supporter that lost family in the fire and has been loking for someone to blame ever since. The tosser who writes for the Guardian is one of the most despicable journalists out there and managed to turn a story about Roy Hodgson attending today into an arson allegation and book advert for his mate Martin Fletcher. The person that started the fire accidentally is known to a few within Bradford and the twist was that his father was a fire chief, which is why it was hushed. Total accident and I believe 4 of the 8 buildings that our chairman used to own had been sold on already and on a few occasions the culprits were caught and had nothing to do with the chairman. Martin Fletcher and the journo have timed a book release/press release at the time when they will get most exposure. Fletcher previously wrote about Bradford and Hillsborough but didn't get published, the press release came out on the anniversary of Hillsborough and the book release is timed in conjunction with the 30 year anniversary of the fire. Politicians jumping on the bandwagon demanding a new enquiry just at the right time of an election and we risk a dignified event that we hold every year becoming a media circus and witch hunt. Have a read through this when you have a spare 10 mins, the ex chairmans son and others have commented: https://claretandbanter.uk/threads/wtf-breaking-news-on-guardian-website-heginbotham-linked-to-earlier-fires.44550/ :ok

Interesting stuff mate. Sorry, wasn't that close to the story as a whole. Hope you have a good day anyway. :)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season Historic day tomorrow with the first ever flat race at Wetherby. It's a decent card as well with maximum entrants for each of the races. Good to see. Although it will be really weird to see stick to the turf ... ! Wetherby 2.00 - Despite the trainer suggesting his charge definitely prefers softer ground, he still seems to act on sounder ground and therefore POLAR FOREST is taken to come out on top in the first ever flat race at Wetherby. Has improved massively recently and that upward curve doesn't look like stopping. Form of latest win took a boost when the third won NTO. Richard Guest speaks highly of him and should go very well. Polar Forest 1pt Win @ 13/2 BetVictor 3.00 - Secret Hint is the type of horse I like to back, unexposed, dropped in class after running well LTO (infact winning a decent Cl2 event at Newmarket which form has been franked since) and should take all the beating if fighting fit from a break. Secret Hint 2pt Win @ 5/2 Bet365

[robertob]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season Think you have a cracking bet on Secret Hint. Super price you got and I suspect that this filly is too classy for the field. Have missed the good prices so not backing her myself but think you got outstanding value with your 5/2. :ok

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season

Think you have a cracking bet on Secret Hint. Super price you got and I suspect that this filly is too classy for the field. Have missed the good prices so not backing her myself but think you got outstanding value with your 5/2. :ok

Could only manage 2nd, no complaints with the winner really, although I picked the wrong unexposed one!

[robertob]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season Well.... that's the game sometimes. But you know it's not all about picking the right and wrong one, but more about the value and long term. Think both yours got really close today and were nice prices. If you go along that way, you'll be in the profit as your thread seems to be anyway. Keep up the good work mate! :ok

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Jorvik's 2015 Flat Season

Well.... that's the game sometimes. But you know it's not all about picking the right and wrong one' date=' but more about the value and long term. Think both yours got really close today and were nice prices. If you go along that way, you'll be in the profit as your thread seems to be anyway. Keep up the good work mate! :ok[/quote'] Absolutely mate, I'm keeping track of the price I take and the SP too, the SP is shorter a lot more often (although I know that itself doesn't actually mean automatic value). Anyway, thanks for the comments ... One day I may be fit to lace your boots. ;)