Stribs Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I like thinking i have cracked a code, whereas really Im just looking at stats which in the end don't mean anything as its 11 humans playing against 11 humans.... However humour me! The idea is that at this stage of the season teams know if they score lots or let in lots. So looking at each league and picking the 2 teams playing each other that week who have the highest amount of over 1.5 goal games (stats taken from flashscores.co.uk) should lead to 2 glorious goals (hmmm). Then looking at other factors as in do they have top scorers in that league.... we have a winner (lets see how this works) I hope to bet just sat/sun 2 games, starting £40 walking away with £400 (if anyone knows a sweet 10/1 shot let me know) Starting this weekend i have picked out 2 games. Bournemouth v Watford (Fri) Accrington v Northampton The over 1.5 match goals double - £40 @ 1.56 (bet365) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stribs Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Re: Over 1.5 Goals..... Successful beginning. £62.40 returned. Can only find one match today, the 2 teams in Portugal with the highest number of over 1.5 games this season. Porto v Pacos Ferriera - over 1.5 goals @ 1.18 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stribs Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Re: Over 1.5 Goals..... Portugal sees us move on.. £73.75 returned. We're off to Germany with Frankfurt playing Wolfsberg. Wolfsburg stats (o/u) 15/3 Frankfurt stats 15/3 Frankfurt top scorer in the league Meier. £73.75 @ 1.12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stribs Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Re: Over 1.5 Goals..... 87th minute 2nd goal scrapes us through. Lots of cup games midweek, nothing with strong stats tomorrow. Should find something for Friday with all the French and Dutch leagues. £82.97 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Re: Over 1.5 Goals..... Going well Stribs, your strategy is bearing fruit so far, |I'm not a fan of the 'all in' staking plan, but am watching with interest, good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stribs Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Re: Over 1.5 Goals..... I agree its always going to be tougher with rolling, but will try and keep in my head it was just £40 in its youth. Gone for the most obvious looking over 1.5 tonight with real Madrid v Valencia. Real Madrid - 20/0 Seville - 15/5 Hoping Madrid pull their weight at a mightily skinny odds. £82.97 @ 1.10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stribs Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Re: Over 1.5 Goals..... I should probably check whether the greatest player in the world is suspended. This should be interesting... Don't think we can celebrate that to much. Midweek Im trying to set up a decent weekend so will take the extra pennies Mon-Fri. £91.27 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stribs Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Re: Over 1.5 Goals..... Nothing coming up for tomorrow, so were getting involved for Friday night. Even with quite a schedule of football its a push to find a real gem HOWEVER the allure of getting to the weekend with £100+ is to strong. So were going to Holland with Eindhoven vs Roda. Roda - 20/2 Eindhoven - 19/3 2nd and 3rd fighting it out. £91.27 @ 1.16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stribs Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Re: Over 1.5 Goals..... Absolutely lovely. 0-0 at halftime always gets the blood pressure up but 2 goals in 5 minutes in the 2nd half get the job done. £106.48 Annoys me there are 449 games tomorrow (as per Bet score app) and all i want to look for are 2, maybe 3 with the right stats, to score 2 goals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stribs Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Re: Over 1.5 Goals..... In stats we trust.... Out of the 449 games tomorrow, i have found 4 games that fit the criteria very well. Unfortunately PSV v Utrecht have come in at a mighty 1.004 for over 1.5. Even i have to swerve that. So that leaves us with 3 different leagues. Watford v Blackburn @ 1.18 (combined 55/11) St. Gallen v Zurich @ 1.25 (combined 31/5) Union Berlin v Bochum @ 1.28 (combined 32/6) I will be honest i spewed the £6 earlier to leave a ripe £100. 2 goals x 3 games returns £189.93 Cant call it a "system" if you cant trust it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stribs Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Re: Over 1.5 Goals..... Killer blow. Watford v Blackburn 1-0. The worst thing is that covered all the criteria the best out of the selections. Feel there's still something in this, but then again a red card here, an outstanding goalkeeper there. Its all just unbeatable. Sigh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Re: Over 1.5 Goals..... Its all just unbeatable. Sigh. Depends on what do you want to beat. So far you've had 7 winners and 1 loser (if I counted well), so if you bet at level stakes, you'd have a slight profit, but it's profit, not loss. Of course, it's impossible to evaluate the sistem after 8 matches, but if you can maintain strike rate close to that level, your system looks viable and bookie seems beatable. Then, remains the other part: you need to beat yourself in choosing the proper stake management: some 20 winning matches in a row, required to get from 40 to 400 as you intend, is just too much to expect at odds of 1.17 or so... Hope you get my point: your betting system does not seem bad to me and you should not abandon it, but poor staking system will ruin it, and I'd try first to change it! Can you do a backtesting of your system, where do you pull the data from? www.football-data.co.uk and www.CGMBet.com both have good results databases in Excel that are relatively easy to handle to do the backtesting, if your criteria are based on results within the season (not on H2H from previous seasons), so you should check how would your system have performed in previous seasons at level stakes - if it doesn't work at level stakes, then you indeed can forget it. They say that systems based purely on stats do not work, and I think they are right, as I am "stats-minded punter" myself; but there is always something more than stats, specific for each match - weather, pitch condition, fitness, motivation, referee, etc..., but anyway if you have a system, you should check whether it doesn't work because it's bad, or because of money management, or works only for specific leagues. There are interesting Over 1.5 predictions based on stats, I checked from your previous posts whether your selections were the same as theirs, you might want to have a look at www.betsaint.com/match-analyser.asp?id=o1p5&Sort=dt&play=high or www.betsaint.com/soccer-league-sequence-stat-and-statistic.asp?sort=o1.5 or www.betsaint.com/trend.asp?Status=last&play=O1p5G Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stribs Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 Re: Over 1.5 Goals..... Thanks for the constructive response. Great stat sites. Will reevaluate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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