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General Election Turnout. Value Bet.


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SkyBet are offering 8.00 on there being less than 55% turnout to vote at the next general election. I see this as a massive value bet. The lowest ever turnout was in 2001 when 59% voted. However with so many people being fed up of Blair, but not being able to bring themselves to vote for the other alternatives, I can see it dropping by another 4% this time. The war on Iraq is a major reason why so many die hard Labour voters will refuse to turn out. Some people point to the opportunity to postal vote being a big reason why turnout won't drop again but I disagree. Only the 'political class' (people who would have voted ANYWAY) will apply to vote by post. People who couldn't be bothered to get of their arse to vote don't care anyway - so I don't see this making a difference. What do you think? 8.00????

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Re: General Election Turnout. Value Bet. The turnout was 70% in 1997. So voter apathy meant that an 11% drop in turnout occurred at the last election. I would only need this trend to continue from 59% > 55% for this vote to come off...... (only a 4% drop this time)..

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Re: General Election Turnout. Value Bet. I would expect the increased postal voting to keep it above the 55% Gett1n. I know what you're saying, but in last years local and European elections postal voting did have a significant impact on turnout. However 8.00 does still look pretty big, not sure i'll take it but good luck.

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Re: General Election Turnout. Value Bet.

The turnout was 70% in 1997. So voter apathy meant that an 11% drop in turnout occurred at the last election. I would only need this trend to continue from 59% > 55% for this vote to come off...... (only a 4% drop this time)..
The 11% drop was because everyone knew Labour would keep a massive majority. This is not quite the case this time round - although Labour will win, they will also in all likelihood face a much reduced majority. The harder to predict election results tend to have higher turnouts. Another factor is that this parliament has seen a lot of people drawn to politics in a way that didn't happen in Labour's first term. There have been so many controversial issues (top up fees, war, fox hunting, id cards) during this parliament that people will be more likely to vote, if only to register a protest.
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Re: General Election Turnout. Value Bet. Thanks for the link Dave as I hadn't seen that thread. The difference with betting on turnout and other subjects on the general election (which are more specific) is that the turnout bet is a reflection on the general mood of the people. I can spot value in the 8.00 on offer becuase of what I see, smell and hear on the streets. Trying to guess how many seats labour will win or how big Blairs majority will be will never get me a value bet. Bookies have thousands of number crunchers on those subjects that I can never beat.

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Re: General Election Turnout. Value Bet.

The 11% drop was because everyone knew Labour would keep a massive majority. This is not quite the case this time round - although Labour will win, they will also in all likelihood face a much reduced majority. The harder to predict election results tend to have higher turnouts.
Good point - No - Excellent point. But I think everyone knows that Labour are stick on certainties this time also, so I'm not sure if the above quote backs my argument or yours!
Another factor is that this parliament has seen a lot of people drawn to politics in a way that didn't happen in Labour's first term. There have been so many controversial issues (top up fees, war, fox hunting, id cards) during this parliament that people will be more likely to vote, if only to register a protest.
Again I think this is a good point but I draw a different conclusion to you accordingly. The issues you state above are all important subjects that give rise to people feeling strongly about things. However the fact that most people see politicians as self serving bastids that NEVER follow up their promises leads to the kind of surrender to the futility of it all that could be reflected in an even lower turnout again. I just think 8.00 is too big.
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Re: General Election Turnout. Value Bet. Dave - last point. Bear in mind we are both in the 'political' class. We take an interest in policies and what politicians say and do. Most people don't share our sense of interest so we can't judge the mood of the general populace according to our own feelings.

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Re: General Election Turnout. Value Bet. I wont be voting because I believe that none of the Parties are offering me what I want to hear. Voting for a party that you do not believe in is worse than not voting at all. If you vote for a Party and you only believe in 50% of what they say then you are forever endorsing their policies. If turnout drops (and continues to do so) then Parties will have to take stock of their policies and give the public what we want. For example. If you vote Labour you are voting FOR the war in Iraq. Don't bitch when Blair leads us into the next conflict because your vote in 2005 was an endorsement of his last 8 years in office. Period. And before someone trots out the old cliché that "People died for you to vote" I'll correct them now. WRONG. People died for my right to vote. As for the spoiled papers counting (another waste of time) I'm not sure. Me and a friend were discussing this the other day. I'll go and have a look about the internet.

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Re: General Election Turnout. Value Bet. Betdirect go 11/10 for under 62%.. think I will take some of that, as I can't see turnout being as lower than 55%. I have being asking around 40 or so people in the last week (most in the 18-25 year age bracket) whether they will be voting.. I was surprised that over 75% of them said yes, although many said it was a waste of time as Labour will win easy.. and yes I will be voting - will help to try and kick Blair out of power, but that is just a slightly longer shot than forest sataying up..

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Re: General Election Turnout. Value Bet. Just to turn this whole thread right on it's head. :loon Ironically the other value bet might be to go against everything I'm saying. :lol If I'm totally wrong in everything I've said and we ignore the last elections turnout as a freak result, then the 12.00 on offer at Corals for a turnout between 71% + might tempt some. If you look at the table I posted earlier you will see that this bet would have won in EVERY General Election between 1922 - 1997!

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Re: General Election Turnout. Value Bet.

Do spoiled ballots count towards turnout?
Yes, they count on the official total as "others". I think the turnout will be around early 60's imo, I think the war in Iraq etc like Dave said will bring people out to vote more and although I see Labours total significantly dropping, The Tories, Libs and many minority parties should be able to take a lot more votes from dis-enchanted members of the public. The countryside alliance will count for a couple of million votes with the majority agaisnt Labour MP's and I dont imagine a great percentage of them would have voted last time because of boundary changes and a lot of them had a long way to go to a polling station. Personally I will be doing lots of research into the marginal seats, A series of them have gone up on betfair and I expect a lot of trading to take place on May 5th. Ive started looking at local papers on line etc and should be able to produce a series of value bets come polling day. Good luck with your bet Get1nlots, the main thing going in your favour would be the youth of today dont give a fcuk about politics and a very small percentage will bother of my age group. its their loss.
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Re: General Election Turnout. Value Bet. and I only had a nibble on the 11/10's as well - thought it would be just under 62% as well. Saw stats that only around 1 in 5 voted for labour when you take into account all those that couldn't be arsed to vote.

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