Trainer Form

[arsenalfh]

There's a couple of threads about this on here but with a lot of new users it would be interesting to hear some different views. I've often struggled to get my head around trainer form as Alan King or David Pipe don't suddenly become better trainers coming up to Cheltenham it's just they campaign many of their horses for this time of the year and therefore have them in tip top shape. It would be hard to have certain horses at their peak from the start of the season right through to Cheltenham and you've got to ask yourself whether the horse is in top form, not whether the trainers horses are in form. You may get trainers who kick on through December and January as the ground gets heavy or in March and April as the ground improves but again this is the horses running in their conditions not the trainer suddenly getting things right. The only time I'm concerned with trainer form is when there's a problem in the yard or if their horses are running particularily bad like Jonjo O'Neill through November. So for me trainer form just makes you feel a little better about your selection as others have said before rather than being an important factor when making a pick. For me you've got to look at the horse individually and whether it will be in top form rather than if the trainer is in top form. Any thoughts would be appreciated.

[Trotter]

Re: Trainer Form Agree totally ! I tend to make my selection then look at trainer form.......if the trainer is in good nick I count that as a plus and if he isn't I ignore it A lot of the pundits on TV trot out a load of old baloney about trainer form as they have to talk about something There undoubtedly are aspects of trainer form that are logical but I tend to think these are more 'trainer patterns' rather than form. I think trainers are a conservative bunch (probably in all senses!) and will generally follow the same patterns this season as they did last season For example certain trainers might like certain tracks to introduce their decent maidens at......like John Dunlop usually sent his better 2yo to Salisbury and they often placed or won at big odds first time out or second time after doing nothing on debut Others might have a particular way of operating with certain horses.......eg Johnston gets his 3yo handicapped then starts stepping them up in trip and taking advantage of the WFA scale Other patterns might involve bringing 2yo on slowly over a few runs.......so they'll almost always improve from run to run. Other trainers have them fit to run for their lives first time out You can also see circumstances in which a whole yard of horses might all apparently be 'in form'......if for example the yard had a virus for a while and all the horses were getting beat and dropping down the weights.......then everything clears up and he's got a yard full of well handicapped horses. generally I think trainers have their usual working methods and patterns which means that results will vary over time rather than the yard as a whole going up and down in form.

[Toast]

Re: Trainer Form Agree with both posts. When deciding my bet in a race, it's class, distance then going I consider first before a few others. Trainer form is the last thing I consider especially if I've narrowed the field down to a few. Eg, ATM, I'd bet anything of Harry Frys over Jonjos . Some trainers are ridgidly set in their ways when it comes to targeting races. Over the past few years, it has generally been better to opposose anything o Brien or Nicholls better horses fto, then bet them nto. Geoff Wragg was my money cow years ago. Ignore his 2yos fto then bet them next time over 5 or 6 furlongs. Happy days. If he had a 2yo ready before royal Ascot, then that was his RA horse and was worth following for the rest of the season.

[santos_]

Re: Trainer Form Personally I don't place that much emphasis on trainer form at all. Of course I look and see what yard the horse is from and the stable form may sometimes play a small part in my thinking but only if they are on an extremely good or poor run. Of course some trainers tend to fair better in certain events or certain tracks and if you really dig down you could proabaly find patterns regarding that but to me trainers will invaribly take their turns in winning and I don't let that play into my thinking too much.

[arsenalfh]

Re: Trainer Form I don't think many people here pay much attention to trainer form but I don't like the way it's constantly referred to on TV when it doesn't make much sense at all. I wonder how many times trainer form is referred to on a Saturday afternoon on C4 racing.

[BillyHills]

Re: Trainer Form I wouldn't back a horse if a yard was bang out of form, simple as that. No matter how good the form/price was. I do agree the term 'yard in form' is over used and i think when looking at figures you should take into account placed horses not just winners and also look at the prices of the horses too. I mean Henderson runners will all be pretty short so a few 4th's are not so good as say a small trainer who runs outsiders most of the time. You can be guilty of over- analysing sometimes but a yard out of form is well worth opposing in my experience.

[Aidymac]

Re: Trainer Form Jonjo O'Neill has been on the cold list for a long time now but he had a 4/9 - 1/2 shot run today... Many would think a trainer on the cold list, 4/9... Gotta be layed... And the horse was destroyed, well beat by the winner. Trainer form is very important, Nicholls at the start of this season said his horses might all need a run, and the majority did. The past few weeks he has been flying. No matter how good a horse is, if the trainer is cold you keep away unless the price is serious value.

[arsenalfh]

Re: Trainer Form

Jonjo O'Neill has been on the cold list for a long time now but he had a 4/9 - 1/2 shot run today... Many would think a trainer on the cold list' date=' 4/9... Gotta be layed... And the horse was destroyed, well beat by the winner. Trainer form is very important, Nicholls at the start of this season said his horses might all need a run, and the majority did. The past few weeks he has been flying. No matter how good a horse is, if the trainer is cold you keep away unless the price is serious value.[/quote'] I agree about trainers who's horses are completely off the boil. Jonjo was being tipped as Champion Trainer earlier in the season but he hasn't done anything in the past couple of months and something really doesn't seem right in his yard so I would stay away. But just because Nicholls has been hitting great results it doesn't mean every single horse in his yard is going to find an extra lb on the racecourse. That's why I don't get trainer form as a factor when making a selection. For me you've got to look at the runner individually and ask yourself if he shaped as if he needed the run/will need the run, was there anything important the trainer/owners said, does he strip fitter in spring and so on. When a trainer has a number of horses in top condition he will generally hit good results and therefore be "in form" but it's not like all of a sudden his horses are all going to run better as they will be on different training regimes and have different targets.

[Aidymac]

Re: Trainer Form It's not about finding an extra pound though, horses that run for trainers on the cold list generally run well below their average ability. Jonjo O'Neill has had 54 runners without a winner. Given the talent he has at his yard, don't you think that has to come down to more than just a coincidence or long term targets? Aidan O'Brien has had 25 runners without a winner, 51 days without a win.. He had a horse in the opening race at Thurles today that opened up 1/2, ended up 9/4 SP and was well beat. You can't really use Nicholls as much of an example because he has so many class horses, even when the yard was cold he was throwing in the odd winner.. It is more pronounced with the likes of a slightly smaller trainer like a Jonjo, Hobbs, Fry, Greatrex.. When they are cold you keep away, or you will do your dough.

[Custom Cut]

Re: Trainer Form Article about O'Neill on the racing post website: http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=5719724&category=0

JONJO O'NEILL has dismissed concerns about the health of his string despite the trainer going seven weeks without a winner. O'Neill's last success came on November 19 and since then he has sent out almost 60 runners without a win, with the laboured performance of Cloudy Copper, beaten at odds-on at Lingfield on Monday, indicative of how the Jackdaws team have been performing. Despite the barren run, O'Neill remains positive. "They're running all right,they're just not winning", O'Neill told the Racing Post at Bangor Tuesday. "We've had a few seconds including the horse yesterday [Cloudy Copper] but he was lame this morning and was probably beaten by a better horse [Leo Luna] who is rated 131 [over hurdles]. "Obviously I'd like to have winners but I'm not too worried about them and I certainly wouldn't be running them if they weren't healthy." O'Neill had been fancied to bag a first champion trainers' title after a sprightly start to the season and he added: "We had a great time and then it just stopped and that's it. Maybe it's a lot of summer horses running in the winter."

I'd be happy enough to back an O'Neill horse at a price after reading that. I looked at the streak and around half of his horses were 14/1 or longer with quite a large amount 33/1 or longer which in reality would be expected to run like 50/1 with the favourite long shot bias. He's had 7 favourites beaten with the 3 shortest prices 2/5, 4/7 and 5/4. He's had horses beaten by a head at 8/1 and 4/1 though as far as I can see no other horses within a length. Having seen good tipsters' bad runs and seen simulations at average odds his streak at these sort of odds could very well be down to randomness which is what I'd go for unless there was a plausible and significant reason why the poor performances of his recent runners are connected to the prospects of his horses going to run in the next few days. Of course there are plenty of potential reasons but if the trainer is saying there's nothing wrong with them as a group except maybe some Summer horses are running in the Winter (which I think you can judge for yourself on the individual horse) I'm inclined to believe him and judge his horses on their individual merits.