clubgowi Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Re: Australian Open 2015 Australian Open Tennis: ATP: Novak Djokovic - Stanislas Wawrinka This is a repeat of last years semi final, which Stanislav Wawrinka won 9-7 in the 5th set, then going on to beat Rafael Nadal in the final, to claim his first grand slam title. He clearly loves it here and has now won 12 straight matches in Melbourne, a late developer, he has come out from under the apron strings of Roger Federer and is now a big player in his own right. Before that breakthrough win over Djoko last year, there were clear signs that it was about to happen, the pair had met in both hardcourt slams in 2013 and whilst Novak won both, they each went the distance, Stan the Man leading 2-1 in New York and taking the Serbian player to the brink at this tournament , 12-10 in the fifth. So, their last two neetings in Melbourne have produced 115 games and I would not be surprised to see something similar tonight, infact, I expect it ! Djokovic has looked imperious so far, but did not face a real test until meeting Milos Raonic in the quarter finals, after a tough first set , he brushed the big serving Canadian away with some ease. Wawrinka was expected to struggle against Kei Nishikori , whom many had tipped as a dark horse for this event, but Stan was dominant from the start and barely allowed the Japanese player a look in until the third set. Their was some history between the two , with Nishikori having beaten Wawrinka at the US Open last year in a QF that the Swiss player felt he should have won, he came out this time VERY aggressive and pumped and served really well. Afterwards he spoke about how he feels his game has gone up a level from last year, a few of those Q&A can be read at the foot of this email and what really shines through is how much more confident he is now, not just as a tennis player, but as a man. he is certainly not afraid of Djokovic, or anyone else for that matter and I feel he has a far better chance of winning this than the odds of circa 4.5 (22%) indicate. He is 6-0 in tie breaks this year, which will give him confidence and if it is not stating the obvious (which it is), Djokovic gets very vulnerable once he loses four games in a set and his tie break record last year (14-11) was well below his career average. Wawrinka's serve, as well as his all round game, is improving year upon year and I expect him to push Djoko all the way. 1 unit Stanislas Wawrinka to win 4.33-4.50 general quote....there is 4.80 with Betfair and 4.66 @ Pinnacle, bith of which van be bet through Sportmarket Pro. 0.6 units Djokovic to win 3-2 in sets .....6.50-7.50 general quote. That equates to circa 2.80 for Wawrinka to win two or more sets and looks decent value about last year's champion, who is at the very top of his game and has taken Djokovic the distance in their last three grand slam meetings on the surface. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Re: Australian Open 2015 Well, congratulations to everyone on Murray, especially if you've also called the 3-1 scoreline :ok. Seems like I indeed got it wrong, especially the mental side of things :(. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuMeSyn Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Re: Australian Open 2015 If I did bet, Berdych would have won :D did not bet at all, just displayed my insights. But after that, I might just punt Wawrinka 3-1 and 3-2 tomorrow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1moregamedad Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Re: Australian Open 2015 This was an excellent performance from Murray though. Maybe Berdych wasnt quite there mentally but he did play an excellent first set. You could see that his atittude was really positive and he was extremely confident, but in the end the scot had too much variety and played better. As some said, good talk tho :D Keep up the good work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurlyBurlyMan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Re: Australian Open 2015 Men's semi-final : Djokovic v Wawrinka Having backed Djokovic in the outright, the player I feared most in the draw (other than Federer) was Wawrinka. He's the reigning champion and that win over Djokovic will have given him huge confidence. He's playing well here and he will fancy it. I still believe Djokovic will prevail but he'll have to up his game and I don't see anything other than a close encounter. Djokovic is yet to lose a set but this is his first big test, and this is where he's likely to concede. So the obvous bet for me is LAY Djokovic 3-0 sets, at 2.60 (betfair price). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tennis-Invest Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Re: Australian Open 2015 One pick for tommorow, AUS Open was very profitable for us. We have made +28,55 units with 46,8% yield on 15 picks! Quote: [TABLE=width: 100%] [TR] [TD=class: alt2, bgcolor: #E2E2E2]ATP Melbourne Deadline of event: 30.01.2015 9:30 Event: Wawrinka - Djokovic Pick: Wawrinka Odd: 4.58 Stake: 2/10 Preview: Third year in a row at Australian Open, we will witness a great match between Novak Djokovic and Stanislas Wawrinka. Both matches went to distance, each taking one. Although Djokovic has an impressive H2H and won some matches in between, Stan is a different player in Australia, well so is Djokovic. But current form is also a key factor when comes down to assessing form of the Swiss. Last year, after he won in Melbourne, things went down for him and he was so unconsistant, that it was profitable betting against him. After the Davis Cup last year, he seemed to regain his focus and has not been beaten this year. Especially impressed where we with his match against Nishikori. Taking the Japanese down in straight sets is not a piece of cake as Nishikori is playing some high level tennis in the past 12 months. If he can repeat that kind of performance against Djokovic, we could contest another interesting match between the pair, as Djokovic is constantly good here.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nes* Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Re: Australian Open 2015 is this dropping odds on Zheng J./Chan Y. J. bookie trap or we should play? :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuMeSyn Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Re: Australian Open 2015 Stanislas Wawrinka 3-2 @ 13 (Sporting Bet) for a 0.20 stake Stanislas Wawrinka 3-1 @ 12 (Unibet) for a 0.15 stake All the value is on Wawrinka, and not hard to guess why. First of all, he is the current Australian Open champion. Last year, I could see it in his eyes, that he was hungry for it. This year, I can see it in his eyes again, and his current form also says that he has a big chance to grab the trophy again. His performance against Garcia-Lopez had some moments, but against "the" dark horse of this tournament, Kei Nishikori, which has been playing brilliant tennis for months now he performed outstanding tennis. Nishikori did not even play that bad, Stan was just another level. That left me pretty impressed. First serve looks tremendous when it hits, and his strokes are hitting so well, deep and powerful, just like last season. Stan really loves when the surface is slow enough to give him time to prepare the shot, and the courts in Melbourne are actually looking a bit slower each year. No wind as well tomorrow it seems, so that will benefit Wawrinka as well, which does not move as well as Djokovic, but has much more shot making. Djokovic is looking the same to me for a while, and that is good. Very consistent as always, serving well and defensively top notch. However, he did not convince me at all while he did not have the matches under control. Verdasco and Raonic could have won him a set, and Gilles Muller gave him enough trouble. Although Djokovic is always Djokovic, he still did not convince me enough and had the luck to have a better draw than most of the players, including Wawrinka which faced a lot of in-forms players. Key to this match is Stan serve. Not really worried about his mentality, I'm pretty sure it will be up for it. Since with Magnus Norman he is much more solid on his mental aspects and knows how to bounce back even during some bad temper moments. Should that first serve be high enough for him to keep his serve as much as possible against the best returner of the tour, then he is off for an upset. Should be a fantastic match to watch, and I hope Stan eventually gets out of it alive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Re: Australian Open 2015 Womens Doubles Final and Mixed Doubles semi final: Bethanie Mattek Sands and Safarova vs Chan and Zheng over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power The final nearly always produces a good match and i cant see anything between these two doubles teams It is very hard to predict a winner so im going for three sets as one doubles team wont dominate Mirza and Soares vs Mladenovic and Nestor over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power I think Nestor and his partner are slight favourites for this match because of the fact they have won grand slams together and they are a pretty good doubles team as well but their opponents are good team as well so it should be a fascinating match Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Re: Australian Open 2015 I am not quite sure where the optimisim for Wawrinka is coming from. So he ousted Djokovic at the AO SF last year and had pushed Djokovic close (before losing in 5 sets) at both the AO and US Open in 2013. All said and done, I think the Djokovic we see today is very different from the one who was struggling with some sort of an identity crisis (personally, I regard the Djokovic between the US Open in 2012 and the Wimbledon in 2014 to be a different animal as his focus seemed to have shifted elsewhere not helped by his hiring of Becker - which necessitated time to bear fruit - and the imminent birth of his child). Against that backdrop, I'd hesitate to read too much into this as an in-form Djokovic will beat Wawrinka at a canter any day (as was the case in London at the end of last year). Realistically, I don't see how Djokovic will make this any tougher than it needs to be considering he already has 24 hours less to prepare for the final than Murray - while Djokovic may drop a set if his concentration dips, I just don't see him not covering the handicap if he doesn't lose a set 6-2 (or worse). Expect Djokovic to cover the -5.5 handicap comfortably - this could be a far simpler encounter than many would think... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Re: Australian Open 2015 Back Maria Sharapova (+1.5 sets) to beat Serena Williams for a 7/10 stake at 1.80 with Pinnacle Back Maria Sharapova to beat Serena Williams for a 3/10 stake at 3.24 with Pinnacle Fancy Sharapova here on the account of how the two have been playing so far. Williams looks slow, sluggish, she relies on her serve way too much from what I've seen. If Sharapova keeps her cool and forgets about the H2H record, she should have every chance of winning this in my opinion. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/sharapova-vs-williams-betting-maria-sharapova-looks-value-in-the-first-grand-slam-finals-of-the-year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurlyBurlyMan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Re: Australian Open 2015 Good luck CzechPunter but I really hope you're wrong about this one.;) I'm having my biggest bet for nearly 2 years on Serena at 4/9. That looks much to big, I make her a 1/3 shot given the dominance she has over Maria. H2H is sometimes overestimated in tennis, but in some instances justified. I think its hugely important with these two because of the number of times they've played and the time span - no wins for Sharapova in almost 11 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delfino Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Re: Australian Open 2015 For women i think Serena will win but without placing money. For men, according to what i witnessed so far, Murray has decent opportunity to lift the trophy. He looks in the best tennis shape EVER. Murray @3 bet365 ciao! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Re: Australian Open 2015 Back Andy Murray to beat Novak Djokovic for a 7/10 stake at 3.04 with Pinnacle 6/5 for Murray would look short to me, I was looking to get on around the 2.50 mark, but I guess that there's no point in debating that if we're getting 3.00 for the Scot. Djokovic is the fav, no doubt about it, but there's only one play here given the odds. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/murray-vs-djokovic-betting-andy-murray-the-value-play-in-the-aussie-open-finals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Re: Australian Open 2015 I don't think I'll be playing either of the finals, so it's time to sum up my most recent bets. Milos Raonic (+6 games) to beat Novak Djokovic @ 1.970 -1.00 Madison Keys (+1.5 sets) to beat Serena Williams @ 2.800 -1.00 Madison Keys (+5.5 games) to beat Serena Williams @ 1.909 +0.909 Added to the other bets I've placed during the tournament, I'm finishing this year in the red. However, after doing so badly during the first few days I can't complain too much. My record for the tournament can be seen in my signature, which I intend to update during the season so that others can see how I'm doing overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Re: Australian Open 2015 Womens Final: Serena Williams vs Maria Sharapova over 21.5 games 4/5 paddy power over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power In their previous matches Serena has been on top and her opponent does not seem capable of beating her but in this tournament she seems like a different player more focused and the way she is playing can keep things tight Serena on the other hand has struggled a bit especially in the semi final where in the first set she was getting overpowered so that is what her opponent has to do but it wont be easy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Re: Australian Open 2015 Well, that was about as much fun as watching Isner-Karlovic with sound effects :\. And it also means that I'll finish the GS in the red numbers - I'm looking at you, Pouille, had you won against Monfils :lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thechap78 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Re: Australian Open 2015 i dont think the womens final has any bearing on tomorrows final andy murray is still the play @ 2/1 - his serve and forehand are better than they were for all of last year, backhand and fitness are always at a high level novak to my eyes isnt quite in the same place strength/fitness wise to were he usually is. i know he just came through 5 setter with stan but i believe the virus he had has hampered his preparation. at the back end of grand slams the margins are so fine therefore i believe the day extra rest and the fact in my opinion murray is in a better place fitness/strength wise will lead to him coming out on top im thinking andy in 4 sets but im happy just taking the 2/1 about the win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Re: Australian Open 2015 Knee-jerk reaction I'd say, I don't see any possible connection between the two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Re: Australian Open 2015 Johanna Larsson vs Agnieszka Radwanska over 17.5 games 10/11 paddy power Im very surprised with the bet here as one these sets could be tight and that means the bet would be won Radwanska can sometimes struggle in the early rounds and her opponent is a decent player so she could be off her game and could easily lose the first set Lauren Davis vs Venus Williams over 19.5 games 11/10 paddy power Venus is not the player she was and she is getting older so this match might be tight as her opponent is a capable of beating anyone on her day while i think Venus should win i think one of the sets could be tight David Ferrer vs Sergiy Stakhovsky over 29.5 games 4/5 paddy power He did managed to lose a set in the first round he might do again as his opponent can just lift his game against the better players so one tight set might all it needs to cover the bet Go Soeda vs Fernando Verdasco over 35.5 games 10/11 paddy power This should be a least four sets or maybe five as there is not much difference between these two Verdasco is slight favourite but your still not sure what he is going to do next Ivan Dodig vs Kei Nishikori over 30.5 games 8/11 paddy power:) I like the look of this bet as his opponent is a good player and with it getting hotter it might not be so easy for Nishikori i think three tight sets is the way to go here Malek Jaziri vs Nick Kyrgios over 34.5 games 4/5 paddy power over 3.5 sets 11/10 paddy power Kyrgios to win 3-1 7/2 paddy power Kyrgios looks like he has got the fans behind him and seems to play his best tennis under the weight of expectations so i fancy him to win this His previous matches he has lost a set so i think it will happen again Dudi Sela vs Rafael Nadal over 31.5 games evens paddy power In his previous match he seem to have injured himself so maybe he is not fully fit so he might be on top form so his opponent can take advantage of this and win set off him but knowing Nadal he should recover and win in four sets Sara Errani vs Yanina Wickmayer over 21.5 games evens paddy power:) This should be a great match as these two are not on top form so there is not much between and will go either way so expect a lot of breaks of serve Eugenie Bouchard vs Caroline Garcia over 19.5 games 8/11 paddy power Bouchard is favourite to win this but her opponent is a very talented player and it wont be easy she is obviously playing well so Bouchard should be in for a tough match I think she will win two and one set maybe tight Zarina Diyas vs Maria Sharapova over 18.5 games 10/11 paddy power I fancy Sharapova to win but she may make it hard for herself again like in her last match so i think one of these sets will be close as her opponent has done well to get this far Serena Williams vs Garbine Muguruza over 19.5 games 8/11 paddy power:) over 2.5 sets 7/4 paddy power Most people think that Serena will win this one easily but i felt that in her last match she was not playing well I feel that maybe she is not as good as she was and her opponent who is a young and talented player could make it very difficult for her Venus Williams vs Agnieszka Radwanska over 21.5 games 10/11 paddy power:) over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power Im looking forward to this match as this time last year i thought i would never would see them actually challenging for grand slam title but these two look like they have improved a lot since last year and they look like they could have a chance of actually winning it Venus nearly got knocked out in the last round but her battling qualities came through in the end and before she would have lost that match and her opponent looks like a different player hiring this new coach of hers and we are seeing why she has the talent to win a grand slam David Ferrer vs Kei Nishikori over 37.5 games 8/11 paddy power Nishikori to win 3-1 14/5 skybet This should some match as these two could play tennis for hours as they never seem to get tired and also they never give up I would be very surprised if this match does go five sets but if it does not go to five i fancy Nishikori to win in four tight sets Stanislas Wawrinka to win his quarter 11/10 paddy power:) Agnieszka Radwanska to win her quarter 11/10 paddy power Garbine Muguruza to win her quarter 8/1 paddy power All three of these players has a chance to win the title if they play at their very best and they are doing this at the moment I think two of them might reach the semi finals and you never know maybe the final as well Semi Finals preview: Tomas Berdych vs Andy Murray over 41.5 games 10/11 paddy power Murray to win 3-1 3/1 paddy power:) Murray is facing an opponent who has beaten Nadal in the last round so he is in form and there seems to be a change in his game at the moment with him hiring a new coach which has given him new confidence in his game He will be facing a player who himself is in form but is playing better than Nadal and it will a tougher match It will be tough but i think Murray will come through in four tight sets Ekaterina Makarova vs Maria Sharapova over 19.5 games 8/11 paddy power Sharapova to win 2-1 11/4 paddy power I like the look of this match as i dont think it will as easy for Sharapova to win this as her opponent is tough competitor and can win this if she plays her best she has been very consistent and can keep it tight in the first set and maybe win it but i think Sharapova will come through in the end but only just Womens Final: Serena Williams vs Maria Sharapova over 21.5 games 4/5 paddy power:) over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power In their previous matches Serena has been on top and her opponent does not seem capable of beating her but in this tournament she seems like a different player more focused and the way she is playing can keep things tight Serena on the other hand has struggled a bit especially in the semi final where in the first set she was getting overpowered so that is what her opponent has to do but it wont be easy i have not done too badly but i did get the womes final bet right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Re: Australian Open 2015 Mens Final : Novak Djokovic vs Andy Murray over 39.5 games 4/5 paddy power Andy Murray 19.5 total games evens paddy power First set score after 4 games Murray 3-1 9/2 paddy power Andy Murray to win and both to win a set 5/2 paddy power Over 2.5 sets Tie breaks 9/1 skybet Andy Murray to serve an ace in his first service game 11/8 skybet Either player to save match point and win the match 9/1 skybet Highest first serve percentage Murray 11/4 skybet Andy Murray to serve two aces in the first game 11/8 skybet Total double faults 7.5 11/10 paddy power I fancy this to be a long match with it going to four or five sets maybe five sets and a few tie breaks as there is not much to choose between them Murray has been very impressive throughout the tournament while his opponent who is playing well himself was not that impressive in his last match so Murray can take advantage of this The last time these two faced each other in a grand slam final Murray won so he knows how to win these grand slam tournaments also i like the way he is serving at the moment and his serving percentage is quite high and you need that just to beat his opponent and he is getting a few aces as well so he is serving well but as this a long match they could be quite a few double faults in the match as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Re: Australian Open 2015 Mens Final: Novak Djokovic vs Andy Murray over 39.5 games 4/5 paddy power:lol Andy Murray 19.5 total games evens paddy power First set score after 4 games Murray 3-1 9/2 paddy power Andy Murray to win and both to win a set 5/2 paddy power Over 2.5 sets Tie breaks 9/1 skybet Andy Murray to serve an ace in his first service game 11/8 skybet:lol Either player to save match point and win the match 9/1 skybet Highest first serve percentage Murray 11/4 skybet:lol Andy Murray to serve two aces in the first game 11/8 skybet Total double faults 7.5 11/10 paddy power I fancy this to be a long match with it going to four or five sets maybe five sets and a few tie breaks as there is not much to choose between them Murray has been very impressive throughout the tournament while his opponent who is playing well himself was not that impressive in his last match so Murray can take advantage of this The last time these two faced each other in a grand slam final Murray won so he knows how to win these grand slam tournaments also i like the way he is serving at the moment and his serving percentage is quite high and you need that just to beat his opponent and he is getting a few aces as well so he is serving well but as this a long match they could be quite a few double faults in the match as well Not bad on some of the bets Unlucky on the rest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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