UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th

[seven2nds]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th Solid advice Senk. I am taking Feyenoord solely on your logic which seems correct. Let's get this going.....as you can tell I am a big spender :unsure http://i1349.photobucket.com/albums/p755/seven2nds/Capture_zps7de44f3a.jpg' alt='Capture_zps7de44f3a.jpg'> Good Luck all!

[AZAlkmaar2]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th

What makes you think there is value in these games AZ?

Copenhagen is done but Torino still needs a win to secure qualification and to go for first place. A Torino win is valued at 2.15 at unitbet Lille can still qualify if they beat Wolfsburg, Wolfsburg only need a draw but are on a great streak and valued at 2.20 for a win. Young Boys and Sparta Praha both can both qualify and even take 1st place in the group. Praha doesnt need a win though but Young Boys have the home advantage and are valued at 2.45 for a win. Rio Ave is done with only one point so far and Aalborg need a win to be sure qualify. In case Steau doesn't win they are qualified no matter what, but I don't think Aalborg wants to take that risk. Also they could claim first place if Kiev loses to Steau. An Aalborg win is valued at 2.40 Dnipro-St Etienne can both qualify but I dont know that much about the two teams. So perhaps some insiders can provide some more info.

[senk]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th I also took Everton to win this morning around 1.85! Martinez stated that he will use a couple of young 'diamonds' for this game along with experienced subs like Pienaar, Barry Kone Alcarez etc. They only play for pride and money ofcourse but I like English teams at home. Atmosphere is often great at european nights and Everton did very well so far. Krasnodar is out of this competition and they travelled with a very young squad. They obviously gave up and I think they will have a tough night in Liverpool. Not much to say here, expect a solid victory for the home side. I also took Gladbach to win around 1.50. They are through with a draw but a late goal could ruin their campaign. So they will surely look for the opening goal. Things are not going great lately so a european win could give them the right confidence ahead. M.Kruse is one of the few who probably will be rested but Stranzl is back from injury. Zurich face a tough test away in Gladbach cause they will miss a couple of important regulars for this game. Gavranovic key striker last season, Midfielder Rikan also one of their best players last season and key defender Djimsiti is out. Gladbach had some ups and downs lately but they are the superior side here and should get the job done. Likely over game for me too. Let's say 3-1. Sevilla -1.5 is a real no brainer for me even if they only need a draw to qualify. Reijka is a lot weaker away from home and they got hammered this weekend by Zagreb in the league 4-0. They face one of the best teams in this competition especially at home. On a night like this the home side can really destroy a team like Reijka who also loves to play attacking football, they need a win to qualify after all. Odds around 1.90 were good enough for me. Sevilla can still top this group if Feyenoord fails to win so there should be enough motivation anyways. 3-1 is my call here. Young boys is another possible value bet took it early around 2.55 and they really surprised me in a positive way this season. Full squad available tonight and their crowd will go crazy. They've beaten Napoli here with 2-0 so a lack of confidence shouldn't be the Problem here. They are on a great run winning 6 on the bounce and also in Europe they are a strong side. Winning all of their last 6 home games with 17 goals scored. Praag are no push-overs and are doing well this season but I think home advantage will be key here. Sparta also has a few missings ; Regular midfielder Vacha and regular goalie Bicik while their best player and topscorer Lafata is doubtful. Coach said it will be a 50-50 chance be will start. Back problems are causing him serious pain. Home win for me 2-1! The odds are dropping for all these bets but I was at work so couldnt write it down yet. Hope it's helpful anyways! Goodluck boys

[west64]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th senk I really appreciate your write-ups, but I would be more than grateful if you could use paragraphs to divide the text, which would make it easier for the rest of us to evaluate your thoughts :) thanks!

[allthethings]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th

2-way qualification fights Tonight, I have decided to focus on six matches which are 2-way qualification fights. These are effectively knock-out games where one team will qualify and the other will miss out. Here are the six games: 18.00 games Group A Gladbach v Zurich Group B Club Brugge v HJK 20.05 games Group H Lille v Wolfsburg Group K PAOK - Guingamp Group G Sevilla - Rijeka Group I Young Boys v Sparta Prague Details of who needs what to qualify 18.00 games Group A Gladbach v Zurich Gladbach need a draw. Zurich have to win. Group B Club Brugge v HJK Brugge will qualify with a draw. HJK have to win to stand a chance, and then they will qualify unless Torino win in Copenhagen - or they overtake Brugge on goal difference. 20.05 games Group H Lille v Wolfsburg Lille have to win. Wolfsburg need a draw. Group K PAOK v Guingamp To qualify, PAOK have to win and Guingamp need a draw. Group G Sevilla v Rijeka Two-way qualification fight here. Sevilla need a draw, Rijeka have to win. Group I Young Boys v Sparta Prague Young Boys have to win. Sparta need a draw. Where's the value then? So what's the point of all this? From experience, I have found there can be very good value in betting on these 2-way qualification battles in-play late in the game. The best value is on goals scored if there is only ONE goal in it. For example: 18.00 Group A Gladbach v Zurich Gladbach need a draw. Zurich have to win. If Gladbach are winning, say 2-0 after 80 minutes, Zurich would need to score three, Gladbach would effectively be through and I would hesitate to bet in-play. But if the score is 0-0, Zurich would only need one goal to qualify, and in this case I would consider backing overs goals. If Zurich did score, then Gladbach themselves would only need one goal to qualify. I think these 2-way qualification battles are often good value for late goals if there is ONE GOAL IN IT.

I have kept count of the past five years or so, and in the final round of group matches in this competition, the matches where sides need a result, generally they get it. Whereas in the matches where it's essentially a friendly, the dogs get results at a high rate. Your shots on goal value sides that you marked up above in the thread point in the same direction...upset specials would include Asteras, Krasnodar, Celtic (if Zagreb end up priced at 2.0 or under), Standard (same). I also think Guingamp may well pull off a win...PAOK need a win, Guingamp need a draw, but 95% of the public is jumping all over PAOK and the odds are now a joke for a match between two relatively even sides with tons of missings.

[james-10-]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th Panathinaikos - Estoril Panathinaikos wants to give a pleasant end to its european journey this year for many reasons. First of all they want to play nice and aggresive football in front of their fans and secondly they don't want to lose any more places in the UEFA rank so they won't have a problem in future draws. And ofcourse they want the 200.000€ that the win gives so they can fix some of the many economic problems they have. Estoril wants to avoid the last place after a season where the gave the best they had and it's also a team interested in the money bonus, so although both of the teams are disqualified I believe they will fight for the win ?Over 2.5 @ 2.20 Marathonbet

[senk]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th I normally do but when I'm out on the road I write things through my iphone and there is no enter button to divide texts. Really annoying I know ;-)

[fouskas]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th What about Lille - Wolfsburg? The french haven't won since September, I think it's about 12 games. Wolfsburg -0.25 is a good one since they play for 2 results

[allthethings]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th Here's something kind of amazing. Dogs of better than 10.0 in the final round of this competition during the past five years: Tottenham 4 Anzhi 1 (13.78) Stuttgart 0 Molde 1 (13.52) Fulham 2 OB 2 (1229) D Kyiv 3 Tel Aviv 3 (12.41) D Kyiv 0 Sheriff T 0 (10.04) Porto 3 Sofia 1 (13.51) Lille 3 Slavia 1 (13.34) I guess so long as Kyiv aren't involved the favorites are safe. Only Lille and Fulham were matches where anything was at stake.

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th

I have kept count of the past five years or so' date=' and in the final round of group matches in this competition, the matches where sides need a result, generally they get it. Whereas in the matches where it's essentially a friendly, the dogs get results at a high rate. Your shots on goal value sides that you marked up above in the thread point in the same direction...upset specials would include Asteras, Krasnodar, Celtic (if Zagreb end up priced at 2.0 or under), Standard (same). I also think Guingamp may well pull off a win...PAOK need a win, Guingamp need a draw, but 95% of the public is jumping all over PAOK and the odds are now a joke for a match between two relatively even sides with tons of missings.[/quote'] Thanks for your valuable comments att :) - so you are saying in these 2-way qualification fights, on the basis of your experience, you would back strong favourites over outsiders, presumably therefore you would back say, Gladbach against Zurich and Sevilla at home to Riijeka. The home sides in these two only need a draw, but with the away sides having to win, I suppose you could make a good case for the home side winning on the handicap.

[theo13]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th Dnipro - st. Etienne I find the odds on St. Etienne really high as the French are unbeaten in all competitions since the 5th of October, they won after 20 years their great rival Lyon, they continued with 2 more wins in Ligue 1 and generally they are in great shape and with high morale. On the other hand Dnipro had a dissaponting appearance so far in the competition and the only advantage they had about today's game was that they played at home, but lost that too since they have to play in Kiev, 500km away from Dnipropetrovsk in an empty stadium. ?St. Etienne to win @ 2.88 Marathonbet

[andypaps28]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th Given Walker, Rose and Townsend starting I like spurs on the corners: Spurs given +3 are 4/5, and +2 are 5/4 with William Hill. Besiktas 29 Zengin 02 Kurtulus 19 Franco 22 Gülüm 31 de Morais Motta 20 Uysal 07 Töre 21 Frei Koyunlu 05 Sosa 10 Sahan 23 Tosun Substitutes 03 Köybasi 14 Yaman 28 Karaal 33 Nukan 54 Kaya 99 Metin Tottenham Hotspur 13 Vorm 02 Walker 06 Chiriches 04 Kaboul 03 Rose 25 Stambouli 19 Dembélé 17 Townsend 08 Paulinho 22 Chadli 09 Soldado Substitutes 01 Lloris 07 Lennon 11 Lamela 21 Fazio 29 Capoue 33 Davies 47 Onomah Ref: Stefan Johannesson

[allthethings]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th

Thanks for your valuable comments att :) - so you are saying in these 2-way qualification fights' date=' on the basis of your experience, you would back strong favourites over outsiders, presumably therefore you would back say, Gladbach against Zurich and Sevilla at home to Riijeka. The home sides in these two only need a draw, but with the away sides having to win, I suppose you could make a good case for the home side winning on the handicap.[/quote'] Personally, I wouldn't touch favorites. But the recent results say the value is in underdogs when the matches are meaningless, not when the favorite needs a result to qualify.

[allthethings]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th With the late odds movement, in the early matches I'm on Celtic (4.23) and Asteras Tripolis (4.56). I've also taken overs in Brugge (over 2.5) and Salzburg (over 3.5). The one other bet I considered was Astra to get the draw at Salzburg...a meaningless match...but I can't pull the trigger.

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th

Personally' date=' I wouldn't touch favorites. But the recent results say the value is in underdogs when the matches are meaningless, not when the favorite needs a result to qualify.[/quote'] Well, looking down tonight's odds, two of the longest-priced outsiders are both on teams in 'meaningless' games where nothing is at stake: Dinamo Minsk are priced at 15.0 away to Fiorentina in Group K (Fiorentina have won the group and Dinamo are out) Astra are priced at 15.0 away to Salzburg in Group D. Salzburg have won the group and Astra are out. It will be interesting to see if there are shock results in either of these games.

[allthethings]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th

Well, looking down tonight's odds, two of the longest-priced outsiders are both on teams in 'meaningless' games where nothing is at stake: Dinamo Minsk are priced at 15.0 away to Fiorentina in Group K (Fiorentina have won the group and Dinamo are out) Astra are priced at 15.0 away to Salzburg in Group D. Salzburg have won the group and Astra are out. It will be interesting to see if there are shock results in either of these games.

Yes, the draw would be my play at around 6.5...I just can't do it.

[owenclass]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th Enhanced Accumulators Villareal Tottenham Club Brugge 4/1 skybet Villareal Borussia Monchengladbach Tottenham 4/1 skybet Sevilla Napoli PAOK 11/8 skybet I think all of these teams will win as they all have something to play for and they are all capable of beating the teams they are facing i think these are great odds for these bets

[allthethings]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th

With the late odds movement' date=' in the early matches I'm on Celtic (4.23) and Asteras Tripolis (4.56). I've also taken overs in Brugge (over 2.5) and Salzburg (over 3.5). The one other bet I considered was Astra to get the draw at Salzburg...a meaningless match...but I can't pull the trigger.[/quote'] Two wins, two losses, no gains. Late matches: Krasnodar 4.54, Standard 4.1 Over 2.5 in Fiorentina, over 3 in Sevilla, over 3.5 in Napoli The two I've decided to leave alone are Guingamp to win and Minsk to draw. We saw how the Astra match turned out. Even if the form of the past five years shows there's value on dogs, this has not been a great year for them, all things considered.

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th

Even if the form of the past five years shows there's value on dogs' date=' this has not been a great year for them, all things considered.[/quote'] Shouldn't that read "allthethings considered" :lol

[allthethings]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th

Shouldn't that read "allthethings considered" :lol

I suppose. And Guingamp have scored.

[andypaps28]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th

Given Walker, Rose and Townsend starting I like spurs on the corners: Spurs given +3 are 4/5, and +2 are 5/4 with William Hill. Besiktas 29 Zengin 02 Kurtulus 19 Franco 22 Gülüm 31 de Morais Motta 20 Uysal 07 Töre 21 Frei Koyunlu 05 Sosa 10 Sahan 23 Tosun Substitutes 03 Köybasi 14 Yaman 28 Karaal 33 Nukan 54 Kaya 99 Metin Tottenham Hotspur 13 Vorm 02 Walker 06 Chiriches 04 Kaboul 03 Rose 25 Stambouli 19 Dembélé 17 Townsend 08 Paulinho 22 Chadli 09 Soldado Substitutes 01 Lloris 07 Lennon 11 Lamela 21 Fazio 29 Capoue 33 Davies 47 Onomah Ref: Stefan Johannesson

Looks like I was too conservative Spurs could have made more as covered -5 (the maximum William Hill priced @ 8-1) Spurs had 12 corners to Besiktas 4

[TotoSchillaci]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th

Standard Liege hosting Feyenoord. Normally I would stay away from this game especially when both teams needed a result but now it's a totally different story. Feyenoord will go all out. Best line-up will start their coach stated yesterday in an interview. Money is always welcome and the 200k for a win is a real goal for them. They are on a great run and their win over Sevilla was intens. They will go for the win 100%. They are in a totally different situation than the other two away games so comparing is those results is not wisely here. 2.35 for an away win sounds great to me for a highly motivated side. Luik are ofcourse no push-overs but I don't think their minds are on this game. they play against Brugge this weekend and that one is far more important now. Feyenoord finnaly starting to score goals and Boetius is close to his old form. The team is also pretty competing no big class differences so every player wants to proof himself and the atmosphere is great within the club. All points to a solid performance of Feyenoord. Normally I would be carefull with teams who are already qualified but there is absolutely no way Feyenoord will give this game away. Topping this group would be a real achievement and they don't want Luik to ruin their positive run. Medium stakes for me on the away win and Feyenoord over 1.5 goals also medium stakes! Good luck.

[senk]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th Feyenoord delivered well indeed. Totally deserved victory for them! Everton failed but obviously when I saw those line-ups. Krasnodar suddenly played with a very strong squad while the Everton line-up was even weaker than I thought. Young boys won 2-0 good profit there, pretty equal game though. Sevilla failed to cover the handicap, unreal it was one way traffic all game and they even got a goal dissalowed. So unlucky there.. Gladbach also won convincingly as expected 3-0! Overal a decent night. Cheers guys cu next round

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th

My analysis of shots on target stats for tonight's games shows these teams as possible value. Teams which could be value are in red, with home and away odds below. Shots on target stats are taken from the UEFA match reports for each side - both shots on target FOR and AGAINST. 18:00 games Group B Club Brugge - HJK 1.4/11.0 Group C Partizan - Asteras Tripolis 1.86/5.1 20:05 games Group H Everton - Krasnodar 1.97/4.6 Group K PAOK - Guingamp 1.87/5.25 Group G Sevilla - Rijeka 1.33/13.0 Group G St. Liege - Feyenoord 3.9/2.2 Group J Steaua Bucuresti - Dynamo Kiev 2.4/3.35 This is only an indication of possible value - I know from experience that backing a team in this league purely from these stats produces very mixed results. But it can indicate possible value :)

As a follow-up to this exercise, here are the results of these games: 18:00 games Group B Club Brugge - HJK 1.4/11.0 Result: 2-1 Group C Partizan - Asteras Tripolis 1.86/5.1 Result: 0-0 20:05 games Group H Everton - Krasnodar 1.97/4.6 Result: 0-1 Group K PAOK - Guingamp 1.87/5.25 Result: 1-2 Group G Sevilla - Rijeka 1.33/13.0 Result: 1-0 Group G St. Liege - Feyenoord 3.9/2.2 Result: 0-3 Group J Steaua Bucuresti - Dynamo Kiev 2.4/3.35 Result: 0-2 Level 1 point stakes bets on each 'red' possible value team would have produced 3 winners and 4 losers, and a return of 13.1 points from a stake of 7 points - a yield of 87%. Mid-range asian handicap bets (i.e. those priced at around 2.0) would have produced 6 winners and 1 loser out of 7, assuming odds of around 1.9 would have produced a return of 11.4 points from a stake of 7 points - a yield of 63%.

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th

2-way qualification fights Tonight, I have decided to focus on six matches which are 2-way qualification fights. These are effectively knock-out games where one team will qualify and the other will miss out. Here are the six games: 18.00 games Group A Gladbach v Zurich Group B Club Brugge v HJK 20.05 games Group H Lille v Wolfsburg Group K PAOK - Guingamp Group G Sevilla - Rijeka Group I Young Boys v Sparta Prague Details of who needs what to qualify 18.00 games Group A Gladbach v Zurich Gladbach need a draw. Zurich have to win. Group B Club Brugge v HJK Brugge will qualify with a draw. HJK have to win to stand a chance, and then they will qualify unless Torino win in Copenhagen - or they overtake Brugge on goal difference. 20.05 games Group H Lille v Wolfsburg Lille have to win. Wolfsburg need a draw. Group K PAOK v Guingamp To qualify, PAOK have to win and Guingamp need a draw. Group G Sevilla v Rijeka Two-way qualification fight here. Sevilla need a draw, Rijeka have to win. Group I Young Boys v Sparta Prague Young Boys have to win. Sparta need a draw. Where's the value then? So what's the point of all this? From experience, I have found there can be very good value in betting on these 2-way qualification battles in-play late in the game. The best value is on goals scored if there is only ONE goal in it. For example: 18.00 Group A Gladbach v Zurich Gladbach need a draw. Zurich have to win. If Gladbach are winning, say 2-0 after 80 minutes, Zurich would need to score three, Gladbach would effectively be through and I would hesitate to bet in-play. But if the score is 0-0, Zurich would only need one goal to qualify, and in this case I would consider backing overs goals. If Zurich did score, then Gladbach themselves would only need one goal to qualify. I think these 2-way qualification battles are often good value for late goals if there is ONE GOAL IN IT.

A successful night for this strategy. Looking at the games where there was ONE goal in it at 80 minutes ... Brugge v HJK 80 mins: 1-1 (HJK needed ONE goal) Late goals: Brugge 88 mins Final score: 2-1 PAOK v Guingamp 80 mins: 1-1 (PAOK needed ONE goal) Late goals: Guingamp 83 mins Final score: 1-2 Young Boys v Sparta Prague 80 mins: 1-0 (Sparta needed ONE goal) Late goals: Young Boys 94 mins Final score: 2-0 In-play bets on over x goals could have been placed at odds of around 2.4, and doing this would have produced three winners out of three, and a return of 7.2 points from three level stakes bets of 1 point each (total stake: 3 points) - a yield of 140%.

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th

Well, looking down tonight's odds, two of the longest-priced outsiders are both on teams in 'meaningless' games where nothing is at stake: Dinamo Minsk are priced at 15.0 away to Fiorentina in Group K (Fiorentina have won the group and Dinamo are out) Astra are priced at 15.0 away to Salzburg in Group D. Salzburg have won the group and Astra are out. It will be interesting to see if there are shock results in either of these games.

Dinamo Minsk pull off a shock 2-1 win at Fiorentina :eek Salzburg thrash Astra 5-1 (Thanks to allthethings for this idea of backing long-priced outsiders in meaningless matches at the end of qualification groups :clap )

[HastGill1]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th Some good posts in here, MP Louis always seems to be able to pick out some big priced winners in these threads.

[allthethings]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday December 11th

Dinamo Minsk pull off a shock 2-1 win at Fiorentina :eek Salzburg thrash Astra 5-1 (Thanks to allthethings for this idea of backing long-priced outsiders in meaningless matches at the end of qualification groups :clap )

I'm happy to have backed Krasnodar, sorry to have not backed Guingamp, and glad I didn't take Minsk on the draw...that's where my money would have gone, and it would have hurt.