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46 minutes ago, giraldi said:


I've been working for over a month to see in a 2-2 match for instance, what follows depends on whether it was 2-0 or 0-2 ..etc

It definitely matters so will find soon a very important feature. Filter the sample games according to the goals' order.

Will post soon a very interesting statistics about what happens in any score game depending on the previous goals' sequence.  Until now I considered only the score in the minute 35 for example at score 2-2 but did not consider the order of goals. It is a big difference between 0-2, 2-0, 2-1,1-2...etc



can i put one very interesting before you ?

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  • 2 months later...

I addedd a lot of new features lately, here are just a few:


a)  New feature added in the CGMBet Live Statistics software.
CGMBet Live Statistics software allows you to follow live games, played in the supported leagues, at the same time with the complex statistics based on the current score and the current minute.
The control panel based on the bottom of the screen already allows creating complex filters based on leagues, ELO coefficient...etc but now is possible to filter the live games based on the current score and other live statistics.
As an example, you can see only the live games where the big favourite, playing away, is behind 2 goals.
The list of the filters I can add here is limited only by our imagination. Please feel free to send me suggestions about what other filters should be included here. 




b)  New feature added in TABLES section.

I added a new module in the Tables section in order to allow users to check the yield of each team within the selected league.   Will see on the same place what teams were profitable on different markets, current season. 

This feature works if you selected "My Leagues" or "All leagues" also




 c)  New feature added in SETTINGS section.

 Many advanced users complained about too many confirmations needed when performed repetitive or very known actions. If you set the check button in the Settings2 tab then you will not see confirmation messages any more. (the list of affected messages will be extended as you will send me what messages bother you)    

Anyway, please be sure you need it. Will be one click action without asking if you really want that or it was just a wrong click. I am sure that advanced users will use it without problems.   





And a new project:


d)  CGMBet Early Alerts System software.

Probably you have already noticed my new project, placed on the Home page of the software. It is already under development and my intention is to release it around the 15th of January.

The current CGMBet System software allows you to create and manage simple alerts and to see in the UPCOMING section when they appear.


The new software will be independent and will allow you, based on the same database, to create very complex alerts then t store them on my server. Every morning the server will check and if will appear a game or games that fit your alert(s) then you will receive an email in order to be informed that Saturday in the following games .... home team scored every game until 30 minutes in the last 5 games and the away team not scored in last 15 minutes this season.   (just a random example )




Edited by giraldi
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  • 1 month later...
8 hours ago, giraldi said:


As I promised, I went further with the last improvement and now can see the number of games where the home/away values come from

For example, Preston won 100% at home against similar opponents in 5 games and Charlton lost 60% away in 10 similar games

It's much better now that we can see the sample


how does this similar games works?

looks very interesting 

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I defined similar games as those games where the home/away teams had similar ELO to the selected home/away teams.

Now, similar ELO means that the ELO is inside a given interval, for example Home team ELO  +/- 75 points. Of course the shorter is the interval the better are the results but the sample may be not so good. If the interval is large, the sampe is big but the results are not so accurate. 

I strongly believe that the ELO coefficient is a very good indicator of the relative value of a team, compared to the other teams, inside the same league. The teams win or lose ELO points depending on their value and the opponent value. Burnley will get a lot of ELO points from Norwich  but Manchester United or Liverpool  not so much  and so on.

My software calculates and keeps ELO value starting with the moment the team is added in the system then the coefficient is not reseted ever,  for new season, relegation, promtion....etc. This is because the ELO coefficient needs 20-25 games to calibrate then to take his place in the league ELO table


Here you can see the ELO graph for the first two teams, Liverpool and Manchester City.   That explain it best what happend so far







Edited by giraldi
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This feature has been asked by too many expert users so finally, I managed to finish it.


It is about saving in XLS or CSV format all that is happening in the Live Statistics module. The old button "Export to" works like before but I added a new button "Save" that will save instantly without any other message the table to XLS or CSV, depending on what you set on the right side.


The "Autosave" button allows you now to set an interval between 0-30 minute. Each time will be saved all that was not saved since the last save. For example, you can set it to 10 minutes then every ten minutes will be saved in the "Export" folder a file named  YYMMDDHHMMSS in XLS or CSV format with all data since the last save.


All data can be studied later, minute by minute to see odds, score, percent...etc.




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On the Tables section, last 2 columns, you can see now not only WDL market but a few more.

In this example, at a glance, we see that Wolves scored against all teams but away against Liverpool and Leicester.

Might be useful...

Don-t forget to use "?" mini-buttons to learn more.



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As I said many times, I am strongly against  blindly follow tips without make your own deep assesment.

The "Suggestions" module of my software just applies a few set of rules (written by me of course) then provide a few suggestions. Of course I keep an eye on the output to not be extemely strange "suggestions". The start, first 2-3 weeks, was extremely bad (it was -70% at some moment) but after a few changes it seems OK and now we have around -10% yield from almost 70 games. The last 30 days (42 bets) had +13% overall with an incredible 75% on draw maket from 12 games    

Again, this module just gives a few games, selected based on some stats, without taken into consideration the last info..etc (here is your work)


The "Suggestions" module gives today 9 games to think about, more than usual.

In particular, I am very interested in Inter and Real games where the software indicates a great value on draw. Might be strange bet but did not exclude the bets because the program has given a 75% yield on the draw market last 30 days (12 games).

Please make your own analysis then play accordingly.




Edited by giraldi
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Excellent results for the Suggestions module over the week-end (18 games +35% yield), again, but I will not insist because there is not any intention to give tips but just a few games to think about, to dig deeper and to make the best decision.


Many asked if possible to back-test the filters they created in the UPCOMING section. The answer is YES, but it is not so obvious (my bad) so I just wanted to introduce a new video-tutorial that will learn you how to back test the filters.

I considered a very simple case when I am interested to check what would have been the results last month if I had bed on home teams, within "My Leagues" list, based on the following filter:

1.  Home team won at least 50% of the home games against similar opponents to the current opponent

2. Away team lost at least 50% of the away teams against similar opponents to the current opponent

If it is still something not clear please let me know.





Edited by giraldi
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A new tutorial to learn to find (+) or (-) streaks, with examples like teams that scored at home many games in a row in 1-30 m.

The suggestions module still has +25% in the last 30 days and is going to release another 6 suggestions for today.

Of course, I have enough experience to know that +99% for DRAW market in the last 30 days in 17 bets   can not be sustained for a long time but at the moment is very exciting to wait any new suggestion the module gives. 



Edited by giraldi
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Hi Giraldi

As the Irish league is due to start again on 14th Feb, I was wondering when the software will update with their fixtures? I like to bet on that league so keen to know.


As ever, thanks for your efforts, I love the software and use it most days. Cheers ?

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Only1woz, thank you

the new fixtures are usually added with around 1 week before. Prbably this saturday  your preffered league will be there. :)


Now, about a big improvement in the Tables section:

The old table can be extended/collapsed now to see the opponent's in the home vs away tables

Ex: Hoffenheim has the next game away with Freiburg. We see at a glance that did better away since Freiburg did worse at home comparing to overall results

Might be very useful



Edited by giraldi
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One of the games given by the "Suggestions" module is Troyes - Chateauroux

away @ 4.84

over 2.5 @ 2.26

The odds are too good so I took a look at this suugestion from a stats point of view in a video this morning. I 've just checked if the suggestion is not far away from "normality" and it seems it-s not. See the video below.  

You must check the latest real info for the best decision!





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Yes, it was not very difficult and this new feature helps a lot the upsets hunters :)

It is possible now to save/load the default settings. (please use with caution as it was not time to test it completely)


I noticed lately that many advanced users are interested in the Upsets module. Not only because it allows to check when happened, the teams that did it more then another..etc but also allows you to see if would have been a good idea to back or to lay upsets in different leagues

In the example below I checked the Premier where the favourites, with odds <2.00, did not win away. (with green are the next games where big favourites play away)

How to read the results: In 48 possible upsets, 19 happened to be upsets and our return would have been approximative equal with the total stake

I have check all the big leagues and can tell that only Spain (because of Barca) has been profitable to back the big underdog at home.



Edited by giraldi
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Hi, thank you for this.
Would it be possible to save multiple defaults?


I look at several different settings across various leagues. It would be helpful to be able to do it with one click. This is not a big issue, so it's not a problem if it's not possible, it would just make it a little easier for me, personally.


Thanks again ?


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  • 2 weeks later...

Finally after a few months of hard work the new software CGMBet Early Alert System is open for trial!

What it is about: This is a new software that allows you to define very complex alerts based (even on minutes interval), to see the results on your screen or to ask to receive the alerts directly to your email address.


Can be set one alert for each of the following markets: Won, Draw, Lost, Over, Under, Scored, Conceded, GG,NG and for each market a few other markets, for example, Won by 1 goal, Under 3.5 goals...etc
Anyway, the list for new markets is still open.

There is a "Test the alert" page where you might see the results for each alert, for the default period or for a selected period. Finally, is possible to export the tables to XLS or CSV to study them further.  


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Last weekend, a colour blind user told me that couldn't distinguish between wins and draws and asked me if it is a chance to do something about. I did not feel very comfortable because I should think about this limitation earlier so I created a new tool that allows him, and everyone else,  to change the colours across the software.

It is very easy now to set the colours you want.  Here is just a random example.





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  • 2 weeks later...

It-s extremely hard without results, numbers, tables, statistics.

So, just to see some random results and standings I created a kind of game.

It is about a virtual league. You can create a 20 teams league then play the season round by round or even minute by minute.  The goals are scored based on what happened in similar played real games.

In the SETTINGS menu you can choose 20 teams then a virtual season is generated when you save the teams.

Finally, select the Virtual League like any other league and play it round by round. It-s possible to choose a team to follow (highlighted with bold font). Just for fun I add the possibility to "help" your favourite team with ELO points

In the last picture I simulated Premier League with Barca, Real, PSG and Bayern.  It was very interesting to follow Liverpool until the last round :))

United and City under Wolves? A few years ago what were the odds for Leicester to get the league? :))


I admit this is childish,no need to say it   :))


Stay safe ! 






Edited by giraldi
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Looks like an impressive piece of sosftware.
What is the predictivity value it scores though ?

Read about predictivity values and benchmarks here:

I don't mean to be critical but I am critical of everything, because our task (to beat the bookies) is difficult, like the legendary hunting for the snark.
It depends on this:
Who are our opponents ?
Let me tell you a story.
Summer of 1986, Mexico world cup, early group stage. I go to a large department store for shopping, in Athens-Greece. At the exit they were giving the customers a piece of paper saying "predict todays match and enter our great competition". The prize was a motorbike and the match to guess was Costa Rica v. Scotland. So I thought "everyone will go for Scotland here, they are respected as a European force and they recently beat Greece in the preliminaries, but they have some problems in the scoring department and the Costa Ricans will defend heroically". So I ticked the draw box. 
The match ended in a goalless draw so next morning I went to the shop to see what happened. What happened was that I was one of only eight who guessed correctly.
Did n't win the bike but one among eight was impressive - the number of customers the previous day must have been 1000 and more, it was summer sales period as well.
But these people were housewives, girls, grannies and so on. They did n't know about football.
So my opponents were weak. If I was to bet against them everyday I would surely make lots of easy money !
In the real world of betting it can never be like that. And indeed after I left the shop when I entered the competition, before going home I went to some football agent shops out of curiosity to see what they thought about Costa Rica versus Scotland. There it was different. The predictions were evenly matched between Scotland and the draw, with some 15% going for Costa Rica to win.
So this proves to you then that it is all about the opposition. We want to outclass the bookies like I did with the customers of that department store !
But this is an uphill struggle and although the efforts of the statisticians and software makers are commendable, they should be able to beat some quite difficult benchamrks in order to have any impact.

Edited by zabadac
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