CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

218 posts in this topic

Following few VIP users request, I tried to do something about handicap and also about correct score statistics. Maybe it is not exactly what they expected but it is all it was possible at this moment. Of course I do not exclude further correction and/or suggestions on this matter.

So, we have now two new features:

Handicap.
This list will be activated on the case you select one of the following buttons: WON, DRAW, LOST, NOT WON, NOT DRAW,NOT LOST
At this moment you may include some goals handicap for the home and/or the away team.
All that calculation will be made considering the handicaps applied. For example if the handicap is +1.5 goals for the home team, the actual result 0-1 will be 1.5-1 and of course home team won.

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Correct score
The list with the scores will be activated if you select the button "Correct score"
At this moment you may select one or up to five correct scores. In order to add scores just pick up the new score and the list will be completed. If you want to delete the last score inserted just click on the correct scores list.
The software will calculate the percent of games ended with the scores you selected. For example if you select, like in the picture 2-1,1-1, 1-2, all this scores will be considered correct and added to the percent.

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It is just finished. Please report any bug or eventually if this affects the old features.

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I added today a new requested feature in the UPCOMING section.

As you know, by selecting scored/received buttons you will see the average number of goals scored/received by each team.
Now, you may select too see the number of games (percent) where the team scored/received goals.

In order to see that just click on the "games" label. To return to the previous mode click the "goals" button
Of course is possible to combine both features in order to obtain some interesting information.

For example, in the picture I selected for the home team to highlight where they scored in more than 80% of games played at home and for the away team to highlight where they received more than an average  2 goals/game.

Of course the other settings and filters you may see on the picture.

UArPvZM.jpg

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As you may see, I had few free days and I was very efficient. 

As you know, you may find on my tools section an absolutely free Poisson calculator.
 If you do not know what is Poisson calculator,  in few words,
expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time and/or space if these events occur with a known average rate and independently of the time since the last event.

For the normal people, like me, this means to try to calculate the probability to happen 2 goals for Chelsea if they scored an average 1.3 goals / game so far.
Of course this is just another toy, you have to take into account much more information.. but may be useful sometimes. Also please note that this can not be used to find value bets..it has some limitations, especially regarding draw probabilities. Please give a google search to find out more.

So, I linked the Poisson calculator with the UPCOMING section. Just click on the game then click "Poisson calculator" button. The values stored in the home and away columns are transferred to calculator.  
To make sense - you must select before "scored goals" then REFRESH.

By linking the calculator with the software you have now the possibility to select different scenarios to calculate the average number of goals scored: all the season, just last 5 or 10 games, full time, half time...etc...etc.

Ndc5RN3.jpg

Just click on the game then click "Poisson calculator" button.
Here will be possible to adjust the values in order to see the probabilities calculated based on Poisson distribution for different type of bets.

Ve5jcN8.jpg

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As you already know, if you select a game in the UPCOMING table the software will calculate what happened in similar games in the past.
When we talk about similar games we talk about the games where both teams had similar ELO and/or Form coefficients.

You can select ELO and/or Form interval using the buttons you may find on the bottom left corner. Also there you may select if you want to see only the games played on the same league or on the entire database.

At this moment you may see how many similar games have been played, how many won by home team, how many over, under...the eventual profit...etc.

Now, the next step,  I have just introduced,  is to see the similar games and to see what exactly happened there, if possible. Just click on "odds movement in similar games" and you will see the graph with the odds movement and next to it, a table with all similar games.

I have  collected odds just for this season so not all the games have odds stored. To be easier I highlighted the games where the odds history exists.
Now, select an highlighted game and you will see a new graph (with black color) for the selected game.

For example, in the picture, I selected in the main table a Premier League game from last week, I selected the intervals for ELO and Form and I selected to see only the games played on Premier League
(take a look at statistics - 48 similar games - would have been better to lay home...etc)
 then clicked on "odds movement in similar games". I found 48 similar games but only 2 with data (as I said - only this season.). I clicked on the first one.

This feature maybe is useful but I think will be very useful when the odds database will be good enough to find similar games with similar odds evolution. May be interesting.  

 
acXdYFk.jpg

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giraldi - first of all, thank you for a great product!!! I am using it since yesterday and now i can say IT`s fantastic. Program is fast, logical and intuitive. Looking forward to use your software and if there is possibility to have VIP access for me, just let me know. From my side i promise to help developing your software, like finding bugs, new ideas etc.

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I am sorry but I have just sent the last PL VIP license for November,   yesterday 

Anyway you will qualify for December.

 

As I wrote few months ago: Every month, I will release 5 free licenses for PL members

a. 1 VIP, 2 ADVANCED for all members: - I think you qualify here for December

b. 2 VIP for members with at least 50 posts and at least 1 year account on PL.

 

But the really good news are that will include some LIVESCORE on my software.  I am really excited and I can not think where (what section) to apply this first.

I was thinking that in the GOALS section would be extraordinary - to see live stats as the goals are scored. 

 

 

 

Boristheblade likes this

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14 minutes ago, giraldi said:

I am sorry but I have just sent the last PL VIP license for November,   yesterday 

Anyway you will qualify for December.

 

As I wrote few months ago: Every month, I will release 5 free licenses for PL members

a. 1 VIP, 2 ADVANCED for all members: - I think you qualify here for December

b. 2 VIP for members with at least 50 posts and at least 1 year account on PL.

 

But the really good news are that will include some LIVESCORE on my software.  I am really excited and I can not think where (what section) to apply this first.

I was thinking that in the GOALS section would be extraordinary - to see live stats as the goals are scored. 

 

 

 

Thanks for reply, giraldi
Good news about qualifing for December :) So, i am looking forward to receive license from you in December :) Now i ll wait and test your software
LIVESCORE system sounds like a good plan, don`t you want to put LIVESCORE to the NEW section e.g. livescores? GOALS section will suit also

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This is a big step forward for my project.

It is just on testing but with your help will be an extraordinary tool.
What it is about.

As you know, in the GOALS section is possible to select the teams, the minute and the goals scored until then  and you will see on the right side what happened in the similar games, considering the same league for the last 5 seasons.
To understand better, similar games means the games between teams where the ELO ratings are within a given range you have selected for both home team and away team.

Now it is possible to select a live game! Just REFRESH the live scores (you can do that once in a minute) then pick the game you want.
All data are transferred automatically to the old controls and the table is completed with the new data.

I admit that always was hard to understand this section and what the data means.
Let-s take an example. I selected EIBAR - REAL MADRID 0-0 in the 30th minute

sM4GVH7.jpg    

The graph,  think is clear. It represents the number of goals scored in similar games by the home team (red) and away team (blue)

Speaking about similar games, you see "Total number of games with data 32/53".
That means:
1. there are 53 games in the last 5 seasons where home team had ELO as EIBAR (+/- 75) and away team had ELO as REAL MADRID (+/- 75)
but
2. only 32 games out of 53 have data recorded. So all results are calculated based on 32 games. You may find also situations where will be much more relevant past games.

How you read the table on the right:
Full Time column :  the percentages of the games (see 1.)  finished Home win, Draw or Away win, Over, Under, ...correct score. You may see that 21.88 %  finished Under 2.5 and 78.13 % finished Over 2.5, 21.88 % finished 0-0 ...etc

Half Time column: the same thing but for the first 45 minutes. You may see for example that all games were Under 2.5 at half time. No games where was scored 3 goals in the remaining 15 minutes.

Minute columns: the same thing but considering the minute written on the column header. Let-s take 60 minutes column. How we read this.
if the score is 0-0 in the 30th minute, the percentages of games where home win at 60 minute is 18.75, draw is 53.13 and away win is 28.13....etc . Also you may notice that 50% of the games where still 0-0 in the 60th minutes.

I am sure you you have a lot of questions and maybe suggestions how and where  to use LIVE SCORE    

And please do not forget it is still under testing so may be some bugs there. Please be patient.....

 

Edited by giraldi
wrong explanation

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18 hours ago, Boristheblade said:

giraldi - thanks a lot, VIP license activated now! and nice news about GOALS/Livescore section

 

Welcome.  2 more ADVANCED licenses for newbies and 2 VIP licenses for senior members for this month

Regarding live score, I am thinking how to improve and use it efficiently. On the next update, this morning,  you will find live score on the UPCOMING menu also.  I do not really know how will be useful there ..but it was easy to implement. :) and also requested by the users.

Unfortunately I can not afford to use automatically  live score yet. You have to refresh manually (no more than one time each minute). I think it is enough so far but I am working to make it automatically to refresh every 60 seconds.

   

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On 12/2/2015, 5:29:23, giraldi said:

 

Welcome.  2 more ADVANCED licenses for newbies and 2 VIP licenses for senior members for this month

Regarding live score, I am thinking how to improve and use it efficiently. On the next update, this morning,  you will find live score on the UPCOMING menu also.  I do not really know how will be useful there ..but it was easy to implement. :) and also requested by the users.

Unfortunately I can not afford to use automatically  live score yet. You have to refresh manually (no more than one time each minute). I think it is enough so far but I am working to make it automatically to refresh every 60 seconds.

   

I am a newbie and I just registered..I will like to get the license pleaseeeeeee

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THanks for reply Giraldi !

Yes , I would like to receive VIP access,please ! I downloaded your software long time ago , but I had no time for more detailted analysis. Now I have some free time , and willingness to study its potential.

I also do not know where to find user code ?

Thanks 

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Again,

As I wrote few months ago: Every month, I will release 5 free licenses for PL members

a. 1 VIP, 2 ADVANCED for all members: -

b. 2 VIP for members with at least 50 posts and at least 1 year account on PL.

Geraldo, I have just sent your VIP license

Gabrijel5, I have just sent your ADVANCED license.

I am sorry, for this month only one more type b)  VIP license available 

 

 

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Hello Giraldi,

I would appreciate a VIP license if there is one available. I actually work in a company where I support the software developers with releases and changes so would be able to assist with bugfinding/suggestions.

I have just got back all my betting accounts and was looking to use a statistical tool to try and go on a few glory hunts or create some kind of system.

Not sure if my post count is high enough though will check when this posts

Thanks

Graham

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Unfortunately all licenses for this months have been released.

But, after all,  because this month is a special month and this is special forum, only for this month are available more 5 VIP licenses. 3 of them are reserved for users for at least 1 year activity on the forum.  Just write here then after my confirmation via private email send your user code using the form on my web page, CONTACT section.

Now, I would like to introduce a new feature:  "Suggestions for today"

As I said many times, I will never release tips or "100% sure bets"
My software will help you a lot if pay attention and make a deep assessment for each game or bet involved.
But,
I decided today to give a little help for those that are completely undecided. You will find on the Home page of the software a new button where to find some suggestions for every day, if any.  The conditions to be shown as "suggestion" are very severe so, for sure, not to many games will be presented and of course not every day.  
Also, please be aware. The suggestions are generated automatically so you must look closer, study head to head, read the latest information about the teams involved..etc then make your own decision.

Image

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5 hours ago, giraldi said:

Unfortunately all licenses for this months have been released.

But, after all,  because this month is a special month and this is special forum, only for this month are available more 5 VIP licenses. 3 of them are reserved for users for at least 1 year activity on the forum.  Just write here then after my confirmation via private email send your user code using the form on my web page, CONTACT section.

Now, I would like to introduce a new feature:  "Suggestions for today"

As I said many times, I will never release tips or "100% sure bets"
My software will help you a lot if pay attention and make a deep assessment for each game or bet involved.
But,
I decided today to give a little help for those that are completely undecided. You will find on the Home page of the software a new button where to find some suggestions for every day, if any.  The conditions to be shown as "suggestion" are very severe so, for sure, not to many games will be presented and of course not every day.  
Also, please be aware. The suggestions are generated automatically so you must look closer, study head to head, read the latest information about the teams involved..etc then make your own decision.

Image

Hi giraldi ! This new option ( give me suggestions for today ) is only for VIP users or ? Because I do not see this new options ? You give me advanced version few days ago( thanks again )

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On 2015-12-12, 1:11:08, giraldi said:

Unfortunately all licenses for this months have been released.

But, after all,  because this month is a special month and this is special forum, only for this month are available more 5 VIP licenses. 3 of them are reserved for users for at least 1 year activity on the forum.  Just write here then after my confirmation via private email send your user code using the form on my web page, CONTACT section.

Now, I would like to introduce a new feature:  "Suggestions for today"

As I said many times, I will never release tips or "100% sure bets"
My software will help you a lot if pay attention and make a deep assessment for each game or bet involved.
But,
I decided today to give a little help for those that are completely undecided. You will find on the Home page of the software a new button where to find some suggestions for every day, if any.  The conditions to be shown as "suggestion" are very severe so, for sure, not to many games will be presented and of course not every day.  
Also, please be aware. The suggestions are generated automatically so you must look closer, study head to head, read the latest information about the teams involved..etc then make your own decision.

Image

Hi, I would really like one of the VIP licenses if you have them available.  Have been using the tool to analyze the lower leagues and it is impressive.   I have some stats suggestions I think might be helpful for analyzing games that I will post on the forum. 

 

cheers,

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Hi Giraldi,

 

Please give the license I requested to someone else.  I've purchased the package from the application site .

thanks and keep up the good work.

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