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[giraldi]

Thank you Froment for your intervention. You are right, my software is just a tool not a prediction software. 

It is just a paint brush. Not even an excellent quality paint brush can quarantee that if you will be the next Van Gogh but for sure will help those that have talent and work hard to sell more paintings than those that paint with low quality colored pencils.  :))

Hi Zabadac, interesting comments. You contradict yourself a little bit when said "to beat the bookies". After that, you are right in my opinion, we need to be more informed, equiped ...etc than the other players not than the bookies (this will be never possible - this would be the end of the betting industry anyway). 

Bookies just want as many customers as possible  and really  don-t care how you bet or how much you win as long as your won bets are paid from the other users account, users that are not using a god quality paint brush  :))

 

 

Edited March 21, 2020 by giraldi

[zabadac]

48 minutes ago, giraldi said:

Thank you Froment for your intervention. You are right, my software is just a tool not a prediction software. 

It is just a paint brush. Not even an excellent quality paint brush can quarantee that if you will be the next Van Gogh but for sure will help those that have talent and work hard to sell more paintings than those that paint with low quality colored pencils.  :))

Hi Zabadac, interesting comments. You contradict yourself a little bit when said "to beat the bookies". After that, you are right in my opinion, we need to be more informed, equiped ...etc than the other players not than the bookies (this will be never possible - this would be the end of the betting industry anyway). 

Bookies just want as many customers as possible  and really  don-t care how you bet or how much you win as long as your won bets are paid from the other users account, users that are not using a god quality paint brush  :))

 

 

 

Re. my story from 1986, there were no bookies then -at least we did n't have them.
And when I said "I went to the betting agents to see ..." I really mean the pools agents, a Greek tote game.
But from the various pools systems they had for sale, I could of course see what their thoughts were with respect to that particular match, Scotland v. Costa Rica.

Really I would prefer tote rather than bookies.
The exchanges are closer to tote, but in any case we are stuck with the bookies.
Those fellows then have engaged the services of some famous universities to help them with prediction theories, in case it has escaped you.
Nottingham-Belfast-Stanford-Catagna to name but a few.
Oxcam too maybe, only I have n't come across any Oxcam papers on footie prediction theory.

In sharp contrast all the -rich in other respects- Greek organization in the eighties had in terms of  "prediction theory" as I recall, was a table they were obliged to prepare every week and use it to draw draw balls, in case some coupon matches were rained off. This table had the numbers 40-30-30 or 40-40-20 everywhere and people were laughing at it. Rumour had it they employed cabaret actresses loyal to the government party (PASOK) to write down those tables,
But they had no reason to become involved, so they did n't care (in those days, now that they offer fixed odds, they do care).

So in real life we make our bets with the bookies, we are trying to beat the bookies. What else ?

Anyway, you say it can go some of the distance, but you don't call yourself a "Van Gogh".
Fair enough, but we need benchmarks in order to work. 
Everyone needs probability theory benchmarks.
Archimedes said "dos moi pa sto kai tan gan kinato", in order to burn the Roman boats.


* In my story the moral is that the draw in the Costa Rica v. Scotland match was going to pay me some 10 to 1, 20 to 1 among the shoppers and
some 2 to 1 with the agents. So I 'd still be a mediocrity but the prices would  be 20 to 1 ! Impossible of course, but in the particular setup it worked like that,

Edited March 21, 2020 by zabadac

[only1woz]

Not that I want to remember it, being Scottish and all, but we actually famously lost the match v Costa Rica 1-0, and it was at Italia 90 not Mexico 86.

 

Kinda calls into question the rest of your points, if you can't get those basics right, no?

 

 

[zabadac]

55 minutes ago, only1woz said:

Not that I want to remember it, being Scottish and all, but we actually famously lost the match v Costa Rica 1-0, and it was at Italia 90 not Mexico 86.

 

Kinda calls into question the rest of your points, if you can't get those basics right, no?

 

 

 

Alright, the department stores "Le Mignon" closed in 1998, so it could have been 1990 and I might have backed Costa Rica to win instead of what I said.
But the rest of the story is true.
As for the football agency, the Costa Rica win probability estimate maybe stood at 20%.
My guess was correct because otherwise why did I go and wait for the motorbike draw ?

It's 30 years now and I don't keep a diary but i have another experience with department store competitions which is even more weird but unrelated with the present conversation.

 

Edited March 21, 2020 by zabadac

[zabadac]

Anyway, as I said in the other thread I have reached a predictivity of 38.5% for the major European leagues.
The overall maximum ever observed was 42%, for easy leagues where the home wins were over 50% (Greece of old, Turkey of old).
In what sense can we say "easy leagues" and "difficult leagues" ?
My experience as a football fun is this:
In the 70s-80s I lived sometimes in Greece and sometimes in the UK and I was vsiting the football grounds in both countries.
The Greek matches were easy. When the stronger team played at home and scored the opener, the opposition crumbled. Final result 2-0, 3-0, 4-1 was the typical pattern with few exceptions.
The English matches were different, to my astonishment as a newbie. Small teams like Carlisle-Sunderland could give a hard time to giants like Liverpool-Leeds. Liverpool's magic mainly prevailed ok, but they had to play for their money.
So that's the difference.

But 38.5% predictivity is not bad.
The question is "do I get my money back from this ?".

My present theory is based entirely on elos, which you also have.
Your last image says PSG - Bayern Munich 2126-2135.
This for me translates into 44.2% for the home win, 26.3% for the draw and 29.5% for the away win.
It also says "buy PSG if the price is 2.26 decimal or over", "buy the draw if 3.8 decimal or over", "buy Bayern if 3.39 or over".
Suppose I do this, or declare the match a "no bet" if none of the three prices offered meets my criterion.
What will be the balance after some trials ?
If it is negative it means I 'm not good enough, if it is positive it means I 'm doing well.

I have n't started yet.
I had some other computer program before to the one I have now and it proved unsatisfactory. 
But right now I can't do nothing, because of the postponements of course.

The thing is can there be any further enhancements and does your software provide any clues ?
 

 

 

 

[mindscape2]

i have got to mention that advanced goals feature is very useful and product in general highly recommended

Edited May 9, 2020 by mindscape2

[agourbet]

I totally recommend this product. It is an excellent statistical analysis software that you can find whatever match you want. Very good job!

[Lameer half]

On 3/20/2020 at 7:38 AM, giraldi said:

It-s extremely hard without results, numbers, tables, statistics.

So, just to see some random results and standings I created a kind of game.

It is about a virtual league. You can create a 20 teams league then play the season round by round or even minute by minute.  The goals are scored based on what happened in similar played real games.

In the SETTINGS menu you can choose 20 teams then a virtual season is generated when you save the teams.

Finally, select the Virtual League like any other league and play it round by round. It-s possible to choose a team to follow (highlighted with bold font). Just for fun I add the possibility to "help" your favourite team with ELO points

In the last picture I simulated Premier League with Barca, Real, PSG and Bayern.  It was very interesting to follow Liverpool until the last round :))

United and City under Wolves? A few years ago what were the odds for Leicester to get the league? :))

 

I admit this is childish,no need to say it   :))

 

Stay safe ! 

 

 

I am very very very interested in this aspect of the virual thing, ye but i am still yet to understand how its been done. If you dont mind please ??

[ReyPunter]

hey

do you think you can create a simular product for basketball?

[nogavica90]

hi all,

i am new in betting and using this software...

does anyone know where i can find some tutorials how to use this software

 

Many thanks

Best regards

[harry_rag]

2 hours ago, nogavica90 said:

does anyone know where i can find some tutorials how to use this software

I recalled links to tutorials in earlier posts so had a quick look. One here and the guy has a Youtube channel which may be of use to you.

 

[giraldi]

Hi

My last message here was almost 1 year ago.

I am fine, thank you  

If you followed me over the years probably you know that every few weeks there is a major new feature. Now, you can imagine what happened during one year.

Of course, it-s too much to write here all but I ca tell that has been big improvements in almost all sections. What I like the most are the improvements in the Advanced Goals Statistics.

Can set a lot of filters, minute, goals, even to pick a live game with the score, minute, teams ELO then see what happend in the past ..with percent, odds ...etc Of course you can do that before the game just to make your trading plan...what happens if...you will know a few seconds earlier what would be the percent for FT... It might be useful

As a very simple example,

In Advanced Goals, you can pick a live game, with minute and score (0-0 in 45' in this example from Australia), then set next possible score (let-s say 1-0). If it will happen in the next 10 minute you already know correct odds for FT for any market

 

 

Or, anotrher one

Question: Premier, last 15 seasons, balanced game, the first goal in 1st half. The FT Over 2.5 odds depends on the team that scores first?

Intuitively, yes, but did not expect so big diff.

Based on 350 games,

O2.5 at FT:

H sc. first: 1.77

A sc. first: 1.49

 

For this you need 2 steps

 

[giraldi]

How to find the most underrated teams of the moment using CGMBet. Here are my criteria, but you can play with the parameters.

 

 

[moneymakerdude]

does it provide in play stats?

[giraldi]

There are not live stats. It is just a module where can find in play "value" and a lot of filters...etc

You don-t have shots/corners...etc

 

 

 

[pmxpo]

7 minutes ago, giraldi said:

There are not live stats. It is just a module where can find in play "value" and a lot of filters...etc

You don-t have shots/corners...etc

 

 

 

My application stopped working. I did emailed you but no response yet. Please assist 

[giraldi]

Please send the email again but I would recommend using the support system

[moneymakerdude]

well this softwe looks nice

but i think it needs a better tuturial video

 

[moneymakerdude]

it has only past stats like soccerstars?

it is a predictive model?

 

what it is exactly?

[giraldi]

 

Many users asked for a different approach when using the Advanced Goals Module.
I did not change the first tab of the AGS - you can use it as before by clicking the TAB 1 - on the top of the form

If you select tab no.2 you can find a different filter, highlighted on the picture below. You can set 3 moments in the game then to see the results at 90 minutes.

For example, here I set the following condition to see how many games ended "draw" at 90 min
1. Home team leads with 1-0 in 10 min
2. Home team lead in the 60 min - no matter the score
3. In the 80 min we have a draw

I applied the filters for all seasons for Premier league, all games.
The result is 39 games and the answer to my question is 64.10% of the games ended a draw. That means that in the rest of 35.90% one team scored in the last 10 minutes.

Of course. the sample is not big enough but it is just an example of how to use the new feature

(Please note that PL registered users have 50% off for the software's lifetime access.. just contact me)

 

[giraldi]

So, based on the belief that there might be many upsets in the first rounds, I found 4 games last week. In 3 of them, the big favourite did not win.   

I am thinking to do the same thing today, so I searched the games played next 3 days, in the first 3 rounds, where

1. Away team has the odds > 4.00
2. Home team did not win > 50% games last season
3. Away team did not lose > 50% games last season
I found the following games (see the picture below) that meet all the conditions.

Please be aware that statistics will never be enough for making the best decision.
It's just the beginning of hard work that puts you above those who bet only based on feeling and luck.

[giraldi]

I will continue to show you how to approach different situations.

A user asked: How to see how many games home teams, not big favourites, won after 0-0 at HT if they played the entire 2nd half without a player?

Answer: 1 out of 15 (I didn't expect so few)

 

[giraldi]

A slightly more complicated problem sent by a user.

Top 5 leagues, it is 0-0 in the 60min then, until the 70min, EXACTLY one goal is scored.

Being in 70th min, it would be OK to take 1.15 for U2.5 at FT?

Based on the last 16 seasons, the answer is negative.

 

 

[giraldi]

 

For this weekend let-s say we want to analyse only games where both teams scored&conceded the last 3 games, home&away AND the current O25 odds are > 2.75 I found 5 games out of almost 500 in less than 30 secs. It-s just an example of using the tool. Please do a full analysis

[giraldi]

A video about how to use the AGM to find an answer to a not very simple problem

If we have 2 goals scored until the 80th, the per cent of O2.5 goals at the FT depends on what was expected, before the game, for O2.5?

If you like it, will be more, soon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IECwqoa7eI

[giraldi]

For advanced users!

I am pleased to introduce one of the biggest addition of this year to the AGM.

 

e.g.

As I heard, one of the worst scenarios in LTD is when the underdog scores first.

Now, you can clearly see which league/team to avoid

 

However, you should do your own analysis.

 

As a bonus, I added a tab, "Settings", where you can set the favourite's odds.

[giraldi]

Very interesting question from a new user. It seems to me like a risky LTD strategy

In a balanced game, what is the % of games where the team that scored the first goal scored at least one more goal, without conceding until FT?

Solution: AGM, for the top 5 leagues as an example

 

[giraldi]

The CGMBET's Early Alert System allows you to see very fast only the games you are interested in.

 

e.g.: next 3 days' games where both H&A teams, in the last 5:

- no games ended 0-0

- at least 3 games BTTS

 

Here is a video that shows how to do that

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2R41Qo3dEIY

[giraldi]

It-s time to focus on the Live module so I added a few improvements, including 50% more speed and update every 1-6 seconds

It offers a lot of filters to focus only on your type of games, to see min by min what happened in another day's games...etc

Improved filters for live games, including the "between minutes" filter, that were requested by the users.

 

 

 

 

[giraldi]

Good morning!

Here are 5 games and an accumulator (5.99) generated by the "Suggestions" module this morning.

They are games generated based only on stats and need further assessment to be good to play.

 

"Believe nothing you hear and only one half that you see." Edgar Allan Poe