LAY MY OWN BETTING SYSTEM

[christos83]

I will start with these questions...Does value betting really exists ? Is it profitable to calculate your own odds and then find value against the bookies ? I would say that in the last 3 years i always tried to find this value but never really got any good results..I believe that in my situation may be the most of you.. I have tried everything that someone can find on the net doing back testing and tried to find winners or value etc 1)poisson 2)form 3)ratings based on goals or points 3)ELO, alternative ELO 4)Sites that give automated betting predictions 5)Statistics based on fixed odds 5)Asian handicap, dropping odds and more other...... Every system that i tried on paper might was good but when i tried to apply it on future games and real money always the result was i disaster.. I said that i will give it up but i will give myself one more chance....I will try a last system that is based on laying my own predictions. I always thought that i can find an advantage against sportbooks but the reallity is that they are doing their job better than me....I could not win playing against them so i will start following them I will start posting games. The philosophy is simple..I calculate my own odds and then i find my hypothetical value against the average odds given..Then i play against my value I will put many games and i will bet only if the odds are higher than 1.50 with unit stakes Three game for tonight Colombia » Torneo Postobon » Barranquilla - Cartagena X2 Colombia » Torneo Postobon » Expreso Rojo - Cucuta X2 USA » MLS » Houston Dynamo - New England Revolution 2 (+0.5 AH) @ 1.61 Pinnacle 1 unit

[Pawn_pt]

Re: LAY MY OWN BETTING SYSTEM Oh boy... I feel sorry that you are in that position. There are a few guys who have been able to develop systems with EV+ reliable and with proofed results for the last years. But it is hard... really hard... myself have been trying to build something for several years too... with mixed results and feelings. I would suggest that, if you are not able to create a profitable consistent system, why don't you pay for some of those tipsters? Wouldn't it be easier, and after all, cheaper? I trully believe an Elo System is the way to go, although it is not as easy as it might look at first sight! Good luck!