Bailey's betting diary

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Cheltenham 4.05 - Heres Herbie 33/1 Bet365 - 0.5 points I could go through them all in this race and in truth the majority can have a case made for them. So whilst this is a competitive race I cant help but be amazed by the price of the selection. His last run at this track was full of promise having run well for a long way before just fading at the business end over 24f. That form has worked out well enough and so has his victory over Henryville who is now rated 147. The 3rd is progressive over fences, the 4th has won and placed since and the 6th has done the same as well. He will go on any ground to as whilst those two runs were on a sounder surface he also demolished his rivals on heavy. This track over this trip will suit him perfectly and whilst the competition has to be respected I simply cant not have a hand at the price.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary No write ups today. 1.50 the package & Sam winner 8/1 william hill 0.5 points 2.40 present view 7, persian snow 16 & East lake 25 bet365 1 point each.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Chelt 3.15 - Baltimore Rock 10/1 @ 0.5 Bet365 & Baradari 11/1 Corals @ 1 point

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Time for a round of the weekends bets.

Chelt 3.15 - Baltimore Rock 10/1 @ 0.5 Bet365 & Baradari 11/1 Corals @ 1 point

Neither truly fired. I thought Baradari would love this softer surface but showed little and Baltimore Rock never looked that happy either on his return. The most frustrating thing about this race was that I chose these two over Garde Le Victoire and Vaniteux because of the ground. The latter two have never shown their true form on soft (albeit with limited evidence) and then they go and finish first and second. Really gutted, especially as I am a fan of the winner as well.

No write ups today. 1.50 the package & Sam winner 8/1 william hill 0.5 points 2.40 present view 7, persian snow 16 & East lake 25 bet365 1 point each.

Sam Twiston-Davies rode an absolute cracker on Sam Winner. Never travelling at any point before staying on strongly off the home bend to score. The Package ran well for a long way too. He faded as the pace heated up but then started to get going once more before faded late and dropping a couple of places. In the Gold Cup I thought Present View had won it with his jump at the second last where he took a length out of the field but the ground had just gone against him and he couldnt hold on. Persian Snow ran very much the same way as he did behind Johns Spirit earlier in the year at Cheltenham and he looked to be getting back into at the top of the bend. The camara cut off him at that point so I dont know if he got hampered because he was close in between a couple and then the next you see him of him he jumps poorly and into one of the other runners. Looking at the finish of that race, all of the main horses ran wide off the bend and those tucked up on the inside faded badly. Im sure he is one to watch. Eastlake never really fired.

Cheltenham 4.05 - Heres Herbie 33/1 Bet365 - 0.5 points I could go through them all in this race and in truth the majority can have a case made for them. So whilst this is a competitive race I cant help but be amazed by the price of the selection. His last run at this track was full of promise having run well for a long way before just fading at the business end over 24f. That form has worked out well enough and so has his victory over Henryville who is now rated 147. The 3rd is progressive over fences, the 4th has won and placed since and the 6th has done the same as well. He will go on any ground to as whilst those two runs were on a sounder surface he also demolished his rivals on heavy. This track over this trip will suit him perfectly and whilst the competition has to be respected I simply cant not have a hand at the price.

Was in with a big chance at the last but faded on the run in, which I imagine was probably due to race fitness. Definitely capable of winning from this mark.

Cheltenham 1.50 - C2 Handicap Chase - 16f Karinga Dancer - Likely to prefer better ground and less stiff fences. Next Sensation - Well handicapped but showed none of his old zest LTO and has something to prove. Fair Dilemma - Improved bundles for new trainer. Best form has been on good ground but has old heavy ground form so the softening conditions shouldnt be a problem. Its hard to weigh up the value of his summer form but if taken literally he has a good chance especially as he is a dependable jumper. Anquetta - Form is patchy and unreliable. Shangani - Needs to show some form before being able to be considered. Even the win and second last season were in poor races. Festive Affair - Won a decent novice race with a couple of decent sorts behind (2nd not done anything since, 3rd who was back off a quick break has progressed nicely). Ran well enough up to a point at the festival which is solid form if you believe the trip is the issue. The horse has won a soft ground point so Im not sure it is. Possible. Da Faiothesdream - Jumping probably wont stand the test Anay Turge - Won this last year with my money but has been poor since. Ut Majeur Aulmes - Form is solid enough but I cant help thinking he wont see it out up the hill based on a couple of weak finishing efforts on sharp enough tracks. Rio De Sivola - Trail blazing front runner who is a brilliant jumper. Probably got a bit bogged down on heavy ground on his last start (2nd likely winner when fell NTO). His form behind Bellanos looks solid given that ones rating now and the form of his novice win has worked out too. Big player if taking to Cheltenham. Monetaire - Unknown french recruit on first start for yard. Hollow Blue Sky - Likely to find this sharp enough. Robins Command - Will relish the stiff finish having rallied home a couple of times. If the expected rain comes in I think it might just turn out to be too soft for his best form Going Concern - Progressive over fences but probably biting off more than he can chew in this company especially on likely softer than ideal ground. Selections Rio De Sivola 20/1 Betfred - 0.5 points Fair Dilemma 20/1 Skybet - 1 point

I wouldnt have picked the winner if you have me a dozen goes given how long he has been off the track but it was a game performance. The same can be said for Monetaire who made a couple of errors at the back of the field early on before coming to have his chance. As for my two, we dont know how they would have done as Fair Dilemma was a NR and Rio De Sivola (who also made an error at the first) then got hampered and unseated at the 2nd. Staked: 31 Returned: 25.05 Loss: 5.95 I need to buck my ideas up, especially with Newbury around the corner!

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Working late tonight so a chance to look at tomorrows cards early. Market Rasen 1.30 - 22 1/2f C3 Handicap Chase Diocles - Form is pathcy, probably capable of winning from this mark but who knows which horse will turn up. Not a great fan of his trainer either. Pilgrims Lane - Too risky having been off the track for a long time before pulling up and then back from another 166 day break tomorrow. Hit The Top - Has been a little disappointing on both chase starts so far but the form of the race he fell in has worked out well, albeit it was a little too early to see how he would have fared. I suspect he will do better at some stage but has enough to prove for now. Dashing George - Gallant 12yo but will surely find one of his younger and less exposed competitors too good. Benevolent - Has no chase form since coming to the UK. Richmond - Was a little disappointing not to have done a bit better at Cheltenham on his last start with his jumping not helping him too much. His form before that is solid enough. He probably felt the effects of a quick turn around when just denied Wincanton but more interestingly his front running and accurate jumping success around Lingfield on heavy has worked out well enough with the 2nd, 3rd and 4th all winning since. That was his first start for Venetia Williams and its worth noting that similar conditions will be expected tomorrow. His last start for his old trainer worked out ok as well with the winner, 2nd and 4th showing improved form since. I have a hunch that he runs better on a softer surface like his sire and it may even help his jumping too, and with Williams having plenty of her string ready to fire FTO this runner should go close. Bennys Well & The Soceity Man are both coming off short layoffs (10 and 11 days respectably) albeit they had done well in each of those race (the latter UR at the last when in command). Roc Du Guye probably wants a longer trip, a drop in class and a firmer surface so is of no interest to me. Greenlaw has now chase form to speak of thus far. Selection Richmond @ 0.5 points - Will confirm odds later.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Working late tonight so a chance to look at tomorrows cards early. Market Rasen 1.30 - 22 1/2f C3 Handicap Chase Diocles - Form is pathcy, probably capable of winning from this mark but who knows which horse will turn up. Not a great fan of his trainer either. Pilgrims Lane - Too risky having been off the track for a long time before pulling up and then back from another 166 day break tomorrow. Hit The Top - Has been a little disappointing on both chase starts so far but the form of the race he fell in has worked out well, albeit it was a little too early to see how he would have fared. I suspect he will do better at some stage but has enough to prove for now. Dashing George - Gallant 12yo but will surely find one of his younger and less exposed competitors too good. Benevolent - Has no chase form since coming to the UK. Richmond - Was a little disappointing not to have done a bit better at Cheltenham on his last start with his jumping not helping him too much. His form before that is solid enough. He probably felt the effects of a quick turn around when just denied Wincanton but more interestingly his front running and accurate jumping success around Lingfield on heavy has worked out well enough with the 2nd, 3rd and 4th all winning since. That was his first start for Venetia Williams and its worth noting that similar conditions will be expected tomorrow. His last start for his old trainer worked out ok as well with the winner, 2nd and 4th showing improved form since. I have a hunch that he runs better on a softer surface like his sire and it may even help his jumping too, and with Williams having plenty of her string ready to fire FTO this runner should go close. Bennys Well & The Soceity Man are both coming off short layoffs (10 and 11 days respectably) albeit they had done well in each of those race (the latter UR at the last when in command). Roc Du Guye probably wants a longer trip, a drop in class and a firmer surface so is of no interest to me. Greenlaw has now chase form to speak of thus far. Selection Richmond @ 0.5 points - Will confirm odds later.

Rookie mistake number one - Analysing a race before final decs! Only 4 left in now and two of the runners I fear the most are still involved so 5/2 does nothing more for me. If he drifted to around 4's I would be interested but not at current odds.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Wincanton 2.25 - Handazan 7/1 Bet365 - 0.5 points The top two in the market are sure to be popular given the yards they hail from and the element of the unknown about them both (french recruits) but Nicholls inmate didnt scream that he was well handicapped at Sandown on his first start, albeit it was a solid start to his career in the UK and Fry's runner hasnt shown any real level of form in France. The 3rd favourite has run respectably enough in recent starts but this is probably his most competitive race and he doesnt strike me as being well handicapped. I think those 3 can be taken on somewhat and I am going to take the chance that Handazan will improve for this step up in trip. He has always looked to be a strong stayer at 16f and his brief chase career was campaigned over tomorrows trip. His trainer has commented before that 16f is on the sharp side, especially on quicker ground as it was at Aintree on his last start. He likes to dominate which he should be able to in this field and the form of his runs last season and Chepstow (won) and Cheltenham (3rd) suggest he is on a decent enough mark. Even the form of that Aintree run with the 3rd winning the Greatwood looks solid enough in this field. Basically at the current odds I think he is worth a chance and the half stake reflects that element of doubt regarding the trip.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Working late tonight so a chance to look at tomorrows cards early. Market Rasen 1.30 - 22 1/2f C3 Handicap Chase Diocles - Form is pathcy, probably capable of winning from this mark but who knows which horse will turn up. Not a great fan of his trainer either. Pilgrims Lane - Too risky having been off the track for a long time before pulling up and then back from another 166 day break tomorrow. Hit The Top - Has been a little disappointing on both chase starts so far but the form of the race he fell in has worked out well, albeit it was a little too early to see how he would have fared. I suspect he will do better at some stage but has enough to prove for now. Dashing George - Gallant 12yo but will surely find one of his younger and less exposed competitors too good. Benevolent - Has no chase form since coming to the UK. Richmond - Was a little disappointing not to have done a bit better at Cheltenham on his last start with his jumping not helping him too much. His form before that is solid enough. He probably felt the effects of a quick turn around when just denied Wincanton but more interestingly his front running and accurate jumping success around Lingfield on heavy has worked out well enough with the 2nd, 3rd and 4th all winning since. That was his first start for Venetia Williams and its worth noting that similar conditions will be expected tomorrow. His last start for his old trainer worked out ok as well with the winner, 2nd and 4th showing improved form since. I have a hunch that he runs better on a softer surface like his sire and it may even help his jumping too, and with Williams having plenty of her string ready to fire FTO this runner should go close. Bennys Well & The Soceity Man are both coming off short layoffs (10 and 11 days respectably) albeit they had done well in each of those race (the latter UR at the last when in command). Roc Du Guye probably wants a longer trip, a drop in class and a firmer surface so is of no interest to me. Greenlaw has now chase form to speak of thus far. Selection Richmond @ 0.5 points - Will confirm odds later.

Should have taken the 5/2 :) Hit 2 out but was in control throughout before idling at the end.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Wincanton 2.25 - Handazan 7/1 Bet365 - 0.5 points The top two in the market are sure to be popular given the yards they hail from and the element of the unknown about them both (french recruits) but Nicholls inmate didnt scream that he was well handicapped at Sandown on his first start, albeit it was a solid start to his career in the UK and Fry's runner hasnt shown any real level of form in France. The 3rd favourite has run respectably enough in recent starts but this is probably his most competitive race and he doesnt strike me as being well handicapped. I think those 3 can be taken on somewhat and I am going to take the chance that Handazan will improve for this step up in trip. He has always looked to be a strong stayer at 16f and his brief chase career was campaigned over tomorrows trip. His trainer has commented before that 16f is on the sharp side, especially on quicker ground as it was at Aintree on his last start. He likes to dominate which he should be able to in this field and the form of his runs last season and Chepstow (won) and Cheltenham (3rd) suggest he is on a decent enough mark. Even the form of that Aintree run with the 3rd winning the Greatwood looks solid enough in this field. Basically at the current odds I think he is worth a chance and the half stake reflects that element of doubt regarding the trip.

Sporting Boy won who I probably wouldn't have backed with stolen money. His price shortened but Im not sure if that was down to the NR or him being fancied. Handazan ran well enough in 3rd, definitely staying the trip, but he could never pick up the ground he had given to the front two from the start. He normally races from the front and I think he needs to on that evidence because he doesn't have a huge change of gear. To my eye he keeps on galloping to the line and whilst he does quicken to a degree, if he is held up its unlikely he will be passing too many. Now they know he gets the trip they may ride him more aggressively, especially in tactical small fields.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Staked: 31.5 Returned: 25.05 Loss: 6.45

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Slim pickings today really considering there are a couple of the bigger tracks with decent enough prize money. I found a couple of interest though. Ascot 3.15 - Ballinvarrig 3/1 Skybet - 1 point (taken last night now slightly shorter in places) I wouldnt disagree with anyone that said that this horse was on the short side in terms of his price because 3/1 is short enough, let alone the 11/4 mainly available now. The truth is though, this is a weak race, plenty are exposed, some dont have their conditions and the track, ground and trip will all suit this horse perfectly. He has some really solid form in the book, including round here as well as an excellent 2nd to Present View around a track that would have been sharp enough. His return at Exeter was solid as well behind an improved winner and the TS for that race was very good too suggesting it is strong form. He is still progressive and should have more to come this season, hopefully starting off with a win today.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Next up its Haydock... I was going to be backing Matthew Riley again but he is a NR. Im sure the horse is still well enough handicappped to win over 24f now he has his comeback run under his belt. Instead I have taken a look at the 4 runner Novice race where I think the market overestimates the favourite. Haydock 1.20 - Mwaleshi 7/1 Bet365 - 1 point These arent the races I normally look at during this time of the year but the market looks wrong and I cant ignore the current odds. The current favourite is Turban and for a horse that has generally disappointed in small fields (he has been beaten at around evens 3 times) and for a horse that doesnt strike me as the quickest (albeit that could be skewed by him running on softer ground), 2 miles around Haydock but not really be his cup of tea. Im not saying he is a certainty to be beaten but if he had come from an minor northern yard you wouldnt be seeing him priced up as he is. Valco De Touzain may come on for his re-appearance but he has been beaten by Mwaleshi before when the latter was conceeding weight and he seems to be a little one paced at the finish against decent opponents, which was again evidence, albeit in a handicap, LTO at Aintree. Third Intention is a rogue and wont be taking any of my money! This leaves me with the horse I am backing. His form is solid, he has given weight to decent performers and done well. He jumps brilliantly and jumps slickly which is also important. He quickens reasonably well and a small field like this is right up his street. He has won at the track before and on the likely ground (although you are never sure with this CoC) and I don't see why he is the outsider of the field.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Beaten by the rogue!

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Third Intention hosed up beating Mwaleshi who jumped to the right strangely and despite beating the rest didnt look to run to form. Ballinvarrig was poor and looked as though he was starting to make his move off the final bend but did jump the next fence very well and the others were never for catching from there especially as he was one paced after that. Upon reflection the price was probably too short and I shouldnt have got involved. Staked: 33.5 Returned: 25.05 Loss: 8.45

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Short on time now tonight but I am hoping for a return to form tomorrow. Ascot looks OK weatherwise but Haydock is going to be very testing by all accounts. Ascot 3.15 My shortlist: Grey Gold - Improving with every race and will have conditions to suit. I suspect he is probably high enough in the weights now but he will be staying on down the straight. Parsnip Pete - Is defintely well handicapped is this was being run at Aintree on decent ground but it isnt and I suspect this different test wont be to his liking as much. Brick Red - Jumps well and will love the ground. Has some excellent form from last season in handicaps and group races. Trainer in form and should be bang there. Fair Dilemma - Has form in the book to be a big player. His best form for his new trainer is on good ground which raises the concern as to whether he will be as good on softer going. If he is then I dont expect him to be far aware but in a tough race its enough for me to pass on. Bellanos - Ran respectably back from a break and his jumping was as good as usual. He has some very solid form though and usually does jump well so if he is sharper tomorrow he will be a big danger. I fancy him to keep improving for his shrewd and in form trainer. Ulck Du Lin - This is a horse I cant get a grip of so definite possibilities but not for me. Croco Bay - Has run well enough in some decent races but the handicapper looks to have his measure now especially as he only really finds the one pace. Selections Brick Red 11/2 @ 0.5 William Hill (MB2) Belanos 5/1 @ 1 Betvictor

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Haydock 12.45 Emperors Choice - Very hit and miss but loves deep ground and a real test so conditions will be perfect. He will keep plugging on when others are wilting so it all depends on how fit his in form trainer has got him. Gas Line Boy - Won well LTO, the 2nd didnt frank the form today as expected and the step up in trip on softer ground is enough of a risk to pass on. Dark Glacier - I get the impression he is capable of winning a race under these conditions but Im not sure he is well enough handicapped. He also isnt the greatest of jumpers at times either. Sixty Something - Never looked happy on the ground previously and has looked weary at the end of 26f races on good so enough to prove tomorrow. Wellforth - Showed liking for these conditions last season but the form is weak and I doubt he can win this again this season. No Duffer - Plenty of potential and an eye catching jockey booking. Likely to enjoy this trip but previous trainer has commented that he prefers better ground and his old form doesnt suggest he is well in. Loughlander - Another to have proven himself over tomorrows trip and ground but in far easier company and flopped when up against a decent field at Newbury (albeit on firmer ground). Likely to not be at this level. Soudain - Similar comments also apply to this one. Bennys Well - Ran 12 days ago and I wouldnt fancy such a quick return in what will be a testing race. Selection Emperors Choice 7/1 @ 0.5 Bet365

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Haydock 1.15 Competitive little race this! Lyvius - Ran well on reappearance and has form on soft ground (German bred so unlikely to be issues on heavy). I suspect his mark is beyond him but may find one or two too good in a decent race like this one. Calculated Risk - Loves the mud and improved for this trip when winning comfortably at Sedgefield in December. Placed in a couple of decent handicaps before that on better ground over shorter so with the ground and trip more to his liking he could still have further improvement in him. Dawalan - Probably well enough handicapped to win this race and was unlucky to bump into such a progressive horse LTO. The 3rd let the form down on his next start so I am little wary of its true worth as yet but older form, including on soft, gives him a decent chance. Very professional and shapes like the extra distance will suit. However its 4f on likely softer ground than he has ever encountered so at the price there is enough to take him on with. Run Ructions Run - Progressive mare who went from strength to strength last season, the highlight of which was winning the mares final at Newbury. The form has worked out well and older form looks ok. Her trainer is doing OK at the moment but most of them have needed a run. On Tour - Described as a big baby who needs to toughen up by his trainer. His form hasnt shown much yet and is worth taking on at the prices. Heath Hunter - This one really intrigues me. Looked very progressive early on with decent novice form against subsequent smart times. Won as he pleased in a couple of other novice races before running well in big handicaps, the first of which too much use was probably made of him. A lot depends on how fit his trainer has him, which is normally a given, but he hasnt quite fired as well as I would have expected this season. Trip and ground fine. Selections Calculated Risk 14/1 @ 1 Paddy Power (MBF) Heath Hunter 9/2 @ 0.5 Betvictor I will tackle the rest of the Haydock card in the morning.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Haydock 2.25 Volnay De Thaix, Katkeau and Big Easy could win but I dont like the quick turnaround in a race of this nature, especially given how testing this could be. Trustan Times has plenty of old form over hurdles to suggest he will me a major player. His 4th at the festival has worked out really well and his previous form over C&D and on the ground will be a bonus too. He probably needed his reappearance over fences and should be primed for this. His trainer is a shrewd operator and will definitely have targeted this pot. Aubusson ran a blinder on reappearance and may have won with a better leap at the last. He has gone up in the weights for that and this race is more competitive. He has form on softer ground and shapes as though the trip will suit but has never tried it. If the trip does bring about improvement then I can see him involved but based on what we know he may just be a shade too high and that may just be enough to stop him winning. Vieux Lion Rouge is another with interesting form. He started life in weak novice races beating trees but he has held his form well enough in the better races too. I can see him running well again, especially as he is a slick jumper, but he may just find a couple too good unless the longer trip brings the required improvement. Spirit of Shankley is one of those horses that despite running well on soft, Im not sure he is at his best on it. After his LTO win his rating has been nudged up again and I think it may just make life that little bit too difficult for him for win purposes. Oscar Rock is difficult to get a grip on. Really solid novice form and despite appearing to get the trip he has never really stepped up as expected. He is likely to prove better this year though so he will be one to keep an eye on for the future depending on how he runs here. Sybarite won readily on reappearance in a strong Cheltenham handicap where the form is working out really well. I had my suspicions before that race that he was a potential improver, especially given his early form (subsequently lost his way before finding his feet at the end of last season). He has form on a testing surface, he stays further and I like his form. One For Harry probably isnt a good enough jumper for a race like this and his form lacks some substance. Shimla Dawn is as game as they come but will surely be outclassed in such a competitive event. Upswing could be going under the radar a little. Has good form in big handicaps and showed his effectiveness for the ground and trip when winning at Newbury where the form has worked out nicely again. His mark is very workable and its likely that a big handicap like this will go some way to hiding some of the quirks he has (Jonjo described his as soft). His reappearance was poor but that race was unlikely to suit so back in ideal conditions he could prove just how well handicapped he is. Selections Sybarite 14/1 @ 1 William Hill (MB2) Upswing 11/1 @ 1 William Hill (MB2) Trustan Times 20/1 @ 0.5 Coral (MBF)

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Haydock 3.00 - Betfair Chase - Cue Card - 5/1 @ 1 William Hill (MB2) There isnt really an awful lot to say about this race other than I think that if Cue Card is back to his best, which there is an element of doubt and reflected in his price, then this race will suit him perfectly and I dont see any reason why he shouldnt notch another victory. Im not convinced it was stamina that gave way in the King George (he only started running on the spot once Tizzard took an exaggerated look over his shoulder) and Jacobs is a far better man to have on board anyway. Dynaste strikes me as just being below the top level over this trip and Silvianaco Conti is becoming a hard horse to get right. Both Harry Topper and Taquin De Seuil have the ground but their form is below the best of the main principles. Menorah wont like the ground.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Haydock 12.45 Emperors Choice - Very hit and miss but loves deep ground and a real test so conditions will be perfect. He will keep plugging on when others are wilting so it all depends on how fit his in form trainer has got him. Gas Line Boy - Won well LTO, the 2nd didnt frank the form today as expected and the step up in trip on softer ground is enough of a risk to pass on. Dark Glacier - I get the impression he is capable of winning a race under these conditions but Im not sure he is well enough handicapped. He also isnt the greatest of jumpers at times either. Sixty Something - Never looked happy on the ground previously and has looked weary at the end of 26f races on good so enough to prove tomorrow. Wellforth - Showed liking for these conditions last season but the form is weak and I doubt he can win this again this season. No Duffer - Plenty of potential and an eye catching jockey booking. Likely to enjoy this trip but previous trainer has commented that he prefers better ground and his old form doesnt suggest he is well in. Loughlander - Another to have proven himself over tomorrows trip and ground but in far easier company and flopped when up against a decent field at Newbury (albeit on firmer ground). Likely to not be at this level. Soudain - Similar comments also apply to this one. Bennys Well - Ran 12 days ago and I wouldnt fancy such a quick return in what will be a testing race. Selection Emperors Choice 7/1 @ 0.5 Bet365

Gas Line Boy stays the trip very well with the selection finishing a distant 2nd with only 3 finishing (who I think was No Duffer). Promising start even if it leaves me with no money in my pocket!

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary No good today and a big loss. Im not really close enough to justify the time I am spending on the cards so I will be leaving the jumps game alone for now and working on some new theories and testing them out, in the process trying to reduce the amount of time it takes me to look through races. I am doing some work on the AW at the moment too so I might be quiet on here for a bit while I try and find some consistency. Failing that roll on the flat! :lol

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Will quickly just round up my Jumps total before moving on to a selection: Staked: 40.5 Returned: 25.05 Loss: 15.45

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Kempton 7.15 - 6f C3 Handicap Pipers Note 101 Hallelujah 99 Out Do 98 Steelriver 97+ Major Jack 92+ Good little race but im not sure Hallelujah or Out Do are in the best form and dont look that well handicapped anyway. I will side with the top rated to reverse placings with Steelriver, but given how he won that race he is of major interest but the outside stall looks a big negative. The price on the top rated is more than reasonable too. Selection Pipers Note 8/1 @ 1 Bet365

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Kempton 7.15 - 6f C3 Handicap Pipers Note 101 Hallelujah 99 Out Do 98 Steelriver 97+ Major Jack 92+ Good little race but im not sure Hallelujah or Out Do are in the best form and dont look that well handicapped anyway. I will side with the top rated to reverse placings with Steelriver, but given how he won that race he is of major interest but the outside stall looks a big negative. The price on the top rated is more than reasonable too. Selection Pipers Note 8/1 @ 1 Bet365

As is slightly typical of my form at the moment the 1-2 was completed by the 2nd and 3rd horses on my list which is ever more frustrating because the winner was 25/1 and I backed him LTO on the AW and marked his rating down because of such a tepid run! AW Staked = 4 Returned = 0 Loss = -4

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Im off to Newbury later this morning for the first day of the Hennessy festival. Normally I only get the chance to go to 2 days so this is the first time I will be going to all 3. I love the track and think its a really good jumps and flat venue but over the last couple of years the field sizes have shrunk and finding decent bets is hard to come by now. Only 40 declared today compared to 48 last year and 65 the year before. Its a sharp decline! As I am going it would be rude not to have a couple of bets and the main two I am interested in are Carraig Mor in the 2.10 and Liberty One in the 2.45. Carriag Mor has some ground to find on the favourite but these are his ideal conditions and on the career best performances these two wouldnt be that far apart. Given the 7lb penalty and the taxing ground I could see the former point winner giving him a good race and at the prices he is worth a chance. Liberty One looks to be an improver over fences. A former multiple point winner he ran a satisfactorily enough race on re-appearance faded late on over slightly further in what will be a hot race (Caroles Destrier won, Carraig Mor 2nd, Return Spring 3rd who has won since). He has form on soft and heavy and he has a top jockey on board which will further boost his chances. His price has also come in this morning which suggests that someone else also fancies him too. Ned Stark looks to be the obvious danger but is short in the market. Selections - 1 point each 2.10 - Carraig Mor - 5/2 Paddy Power (MBF) 2.45 - Liberty One - 7/1 William Hill Elsewhere on the card Jollyallan should beat these doing cartwheels assuming the ground is fine (which it certainly isnt promised to be). The rest arent very good so its hard to even find one to beat him with this in mind. Woodford County is favourite in the 2nd but he comes here on the back of a fall which can always effect a horse psychologically and I wouldnt want to be on at the prices. Ruapehu wont like the ground, Chapolimoss looks badly handicapped and Susquehanna River also is a definite stayer on ground that might not be ideal leaving only Itoldyou as a bettable option for his small trainer who is proven on the ground and at the trip and looks to be in form. The 1.35 is a tricky race. Again Im not sure those at the front of the market will want this ground, and Im not sure Flying Bandit will stay either. Spookydooky is having his first run of the season and that mainly leaves Church Field who seems a soft ground specialist and could be interesting at a price and Trapper Peak who is unproven on the ground but looks to be bred to handle it. I will probably have a small hand on the latter two but nothing too big. The 3.15 is the best handicap on the card but difficult from a betting perspective. Two unproven horses from France with big stables, two Mullins raiders and couple of others that you wouldnt rule out on their best form. I think I will be using my lucky pin for this one. The bumper looks a bit of a joke with only 4 runners. Any horse carrying a penalty in these conditions will be touch so Im not playing the favourite. The next two in the market are the only 2 that make any appeal but the Irish raider is short enough now (but does have plenty going for him) so I will probably back the Tom George horse who has a decent strike rate in bumpers (18%) and he appears to use this jockey for the most of them (15%). Another mildly interesting point is that his trainer is 1 from 2 at the track for NHF races. The ground would appear to be a concern though based on breeding but the current price allows for that chance.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Carraig Mor wins nicely under a good ride from Fehily to land me a small profit. He jumped well and stayed on well down the home straight. Southfield Theatre's jumping didnt stand the test and whilst he didnt make a race ending error he probably hit half a dozen which takes its toll at the business end. Liberty One followed the jumping style of Southfield Theatre only he probably hit one or two more. Never race ending mistakes but enough to mean he wouldnt win. He was also 4 or 5 wide most of the race which is bad in an 8 runner event but when Fehily gave him a couple of smacks he picked up well enough so I think there is a decent horse in there, once his jumping is sorted. Luckily I played late on Ned Stark as he drifted to 11/4 in places and made enough appeal for a saver so I did ok in the end. Both McManus horses that bookended the card won in nice style, readily coming clear and won on the bridle. Itoldyou was a little unlucky. Again he wasnt the fluentest jumper on the first circuit and he was hampered slightly by the faller down the back straight leaving him a little more ground than ideal to make up but he was leading over the 3rd last but landed awkwardly at the second last and after a sustained battle over the last and up the run in the favourite pulled out just a little more. The favourite won the 1.35 fairly handily. Church Field cruised up along side after the first in the home straight but didnt see it out as well as the winner and eventually faded into 3rd. He probably made him move too early (at the end of the back straight) and then hit the 3rd last (I think) but even then he would have only been likely to finish 2nd. I heard connections of Trapper Peak after the race and Andrew Thornton says the horse needed to be checked out because he was pretty happy going around the final bend but the horse fell in a hole. He said the horse normally picks up really well with a smack but he found nothing. He was sure there was some sort of issue and the vibe I got from the trainer and owner was that the horse had been doing well at home and they expected more from his performance and were hopeful that they had an improver. The 3.15 was won readily by the favourite despite an iffy leap at the last and the other 3 mentioned finished in the last 3 places. Also some news for anyone who backed Ashes House. Scudamore said that he was hopefully of being involved in the finish around the last bend and he emptied very quickly when hitting the next fence. It sounded like they new of some sort of wind issue but the heavy ground has made it worse. He said he would not run on heavy or soft ground again but the horse has promise on a sounder surface.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Jumps Staked: 42.5 Returned: 28.55 Loss: 13.95

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Back at Newbury tomorrow and these are my thoughts on each race. 12.25 - The market is heavily in favour of Karezak and his win LTO has been franked but he is short enough for me. The only two to really look to have a decent chance are the two newcomers from Fry and Nicholls. Both finished 1-2 in this last year with Calipto and Activial and whilst there have been lots of whispers about how good the Nicholls runner could be, Im not really a fan of ex-flat horses at a testing track on testing ground. Interestingly Mick Jazz for Harry Fry has had a couple of runs already over hurdles in France and the last run is rated not a million miles off the form of the favourite. Harry Fry targeting one of his best juveniles at this race last season and I see no reason why he might not do the same this year and at the prices I will more than likely back his runner. 12.55 - This is a real mixed bag. Wilton Milan hasnt convinced me yet especially with his jumping (albeit he is probably best at this trip), Quick Decisson hasnt proven himself at the trip, Vision Des Champs is covered by the favourite Comeonginger albeit that horse was flattered by his win LTO. Olympian Boy hasnt done enough to convince me that he can win this which leaves me with Darenger whose form tailed off at the end of last season but he was running a cracker until clouting 3 out on his reappearance and if he can avoid a similar incident then he could be an interesting outsider at 12's. 1.30 - I dont really have a very strong opinion on this race but I would be wary of the bounce factor with the favourite so I will be taking him on. Junction Fourteen hasn't convinced me that this trip and Little Boy Boru is reappearing after only 11 days. Taking those three out leaves the market wide open and taking conditions into consideration I will probably be siding with Tullyesker Hill or Tagrita but I wont be putting much on if I do. 2.05 - Very interesting novice chase and on hurdles form Saphir De Rheu should win. However Nicholls has mentioned he will need the run, and even if I do think he talks out of his arse quite a lot, I will listen to him on this occasion but trying to work out the winner is still a difficult task! Coneygree was pulled out late LTO in an incident which has been well documented but it was clear from the late money and also his trainers reaction that he was ready for that run and quite well fancied despite his absence. Testing ground and also being proven over further are benefits for this race too. Deep Trouble only ran 11 days ago and has his quirks anyway and Dell Arca could be interesting but also wasnt impressive on chase debut. Again I wont be staking much but Coneygree will be my choice. 2.40 - This is another one of those process of elimination type races. The Papparazi Kid could be decent but Mullins form (aside from his big guns) has been that could over here and they arent running their greatest FTO so he can be passed on at the prices. Carrigmorna King will prefer better ground and probably further. He won a weak race LTO and is now up in the handicap as a result. Cantlow poor jumping keeps rearing his head despite my feeling that he is well handicapped, Loose Chips has something to prove given his last 2 runs and No Buts doesnt look well enough handicapped to win. Lamool and Pendra are interesting but the formers recent form has come on good ground (albeit he is German bred and likely to be on on a softer surface). He has won on soft but that was a weak 3 runner event so its hard to tell. Pendra also looks well handicapped and could be a player but on his return and at a current biggest price of 7/2 he looks a bit on the short side. The last horse who hacked up LTO was Sound Investment and I see no reason why he cant back that up. Trip, ground and class are all fine and whilst I may be tempted on a saver with Pendra if he drifts in the morning, Sound Investment looks as though he will be very hard to beat. I have no opinion on the other two races. Selections 12.55 - Barenger 12/1 Corals - 1 point - MBF 2.40 - Sound Investment 6/1 Corlas - 1 point - MBF

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary No luck with my main two selections but had 3 winners on the day with Tullyesker Hill (who drifted to 11/1 on the boards so I filled up at Mr Banks expense, as did many others judging by the size of the queue!), Coneygree (who was superb!) and a smaller one in the novice race with Outsam. Mick Jazz looked a likely winner but faded out of it late (he jumped really well) and Sound Investment was staying on late but No Buts had roared clear and wasnt stopping. As for today my brief thought are as follows: 12.20 - On ratings Carrigmoorna Rock should win but she is already short enough and might not be at her best over this trip and the rest are a bit in and out. On known hurdles form I will side with A Doll In Milan who bolted up on heavy ground LTO. 12.50 - I could be wrong but I suspect the improvement from The Clock Leary is ground based so I am going to draw a line through how impressive he was LTO and Tara Road only ran 8 days ago which puts me off. A couple of these are on their chase debuts as well so I am going to side with experience and I can see Jumps Road relishing conditions. He is still improving and has a chance off this mark. I may have a saver on Turn Over Sivola but he just doesnt seem to win often enough. 1.20 - This is a very difficult race and most of the field made my shortlist. I can see Fabreaga running well on the ground if he is fit enough on his seasonal return but I will probably side with Bobcatbilly who travelled well LTO before looking as though he didnt see out the 24f (which he has done before). Dropped a couple of furlongs back in trip, he could be in with a good chance. 1.50 - I really like Hammersley Lake in this one and everything seems perfect for him to run a big race. I like Cheltenham form and he also has shown his liking for this softer surface. Silsol could be an interesting runner for Nicholls if this becomes a slog and he may relish the testing straight so I will be saving on him. 2.25 - Surely this is More of That's to lose and I wont be betting. 3.00 - I like Fingal Bay but I cant get his last chase start out of my head where he was all over the place before running out. If he can reproduce his hurdles form he will be bang there but at the price I cant take that chance. Ballynagour and Djakadam are unproven at anywhere near the trip, The ground has gone against Triolo D'Alane and What a Warrior and Im also not convinced Many Clouds is as good over this far. I have sided with Smad Place whose credentials dont really need to be advertised, Unioniste who will be a huge player if he is back to form as staying soft ground distance chases are right up his street and an outsider in Midnight Prayer who will relish this test albeit up in class. 3.35 - In the lucky last I am stuck between three being the 2 market leaders and Rio De Sivola. I am a little concerned by how bad the errors were from Monetaire at Cheltenham, especially as when he had done so well to work his way into the race he then made another big enough blunder over one of the last fences. I think that because of how well he made up the ground he is now a little over bet so I will be siding with the in form Nicholls horse Solar Impulse and a smaller stake on the outsider Rio De Sivola. Selections - 1 point each 12.50 - Jumps Road 7/1 Corals (MBF) 1.50 - Hammersley Lake 7/2 Corals (MBF) 3.00 - Smad Place 8/1 William Hill (MB2) & Unioniste 18/1 Paddy Power (MBF) Elsewhere: Newcastle 2.40 - Vintage Star 13/2 Betvictor

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary No good on the selections front today. Carrigmoorna Rock did win as her ratings suggested and she was well punted. A Doll In Milan ran well for a long ay but had no answers after the 2nd or 3rd last. Jumps Road ran well for a very long way. He had been taken on by Keltus at the start of the straight and had got back on terms before getting the next completely wrong and ended any chance he had. Royal Regatta would have won anyway and he too was well punted. He stayed on in really determined style and will be worth looking at once reassessed depending on what the handicapper does. The way he stayed on would suggest to me that Cheltenham would suit him down to the ground and I could see him powering up the hill. I didnt have a saver on Turn Over Sivola in the end and he was one paced at the business end as expected. Bobcatbilly came through looking dangerous at the begining of the straight but faded out of it, again as if even this trip was too far. At 20f on this ground he would be of interest to see if he will see his race out otherwise he may be very similar to Turn Over Sivola. Fabreaga was never travelling and Fehily was giving him reminders early on. It looked like Scudamore had the race sewn up on Phone Home but Bertie Boru came flying home to nab him. He is a bit of a rogue in that he only stays on late but he is game as hell and he loves a scrap at the business end. I finally got a winner in the next and once more I topped up when I saw the price drift on Silsol. A couple of Nicholls horses have done that this week so it didnt bother me and 14's was a big price. I only topped up to a normal stake but Im glad I did and that put me up for the day. Credit to Jack Sherwood who rode a brilliant race. I thought he had given Scudamore too much rope but its a long straight and he picked him up well. Hammersley Lake looked beaten turning in but rallied well to finish a staying on second. The next was the biggest disappointment of the weekend with More of That. The comments afterwards have blamed the ground and that he would have needed it but I feel a little bit sorry for the punters and the public. I think trainers should be either warning everyone before hand that the horse wont be ready, as whilst that is to be expected to an extent, the horse was probably 30lb below his best. I understand that the horse comes first but surely there is no way that the horse finishing like he did will be good for him. Dicky Johnson gave Medinas a good ride though and picked up the pieces which was the only scenario he could win. As for the big race, it was a cracker and a well deserved success for Oliver Sherwood and Many Clouds. I didnt think Many Clouds was at his best over this distance but I dont really know where I got that from looking back at his form. I think it was something I must have got into my head somewhere along the line which is a shame because I like the horse and may have even backed him! The best performance though was from Houblon Des Obeaux who ran a cracker under that weight and always in the firing line. Smad Place probably could have done a bit better had he been put into the firing line sooner without mistakes at 2 of the last 3 flights and Unioniste lost his pitch as they turned into the far corner for the final time but did stay on down the straight. Monetaire jumped well and won gamely in the last. Solar Impulse traveled well and stayed on strongly as well and Rio De Sivola ran well for a long way but the ground was probably too soft for him but he could be a player on a sounder surface.