Bailey's betting diary

[Blazing Bailey]

Dawn Run Mares Novice Hurdle

I have no idea why we have this race but even though she was impressive on debut, I dont think Limini deserves to be quite as short as she is for this race. In opposition I am happy to take a chance on the current 2nd favourite Smart Talk who won impressively on good ground at Donny last time out, beating another of Mullins fancied runners at the time despite making a real hash of 3 out. She stays further, goes on any ground and is improving all the time and doesnt deserve to be the 7/1 to 8/1 shot she is on Betfair. In my eyes she deserves to be disputing favouritism.

Another I have my eye on but doesnt appear to be heading to this race is Listen Dear from the Mullins yard. Her last performance was really smart so if she does end up in this race she would have to be considered.

[Blazing Bailey]

On 13/02/2016, 00:41:46, Blazing Bailey said:

Triumph Novice Hurdle

 

Fixe Le Kap 147

Footpad 140

Sceau Royal 137

Allblak Des Places 137

Clan Des Obeaux 136+

Ivanovich Gorbatov 135+

Gibralfaro 135+

Connetable 135

Who Dares Wins 135+

Protek Des Flos 135+

Indietir 135+ (in France)

 

This market has been shaken up massively on the last two weekends with trials at Cheltenham and Leopardstown.

I am actually quite a fan of Fixe Le Kap. He jumps really nicely out in front and ground out his UK debut really nicely in a good race from Tommy Silver and Kasakh Noir who will re-oppose. He looked to have plenty left at the finish too on that day as he battled with the Nicholls horse and both have won again since and will more than likely re-oppose in this race. I wouldnt be expecting him to improve enormously for this race and the question is more to do with whether one will improve enough to beat him. The one worry I would have with this horse is the ground. He clearly loves it soft and I doubt good to soft will pose too much of a worry, but anything quicker would be a concern. Nicky Henderson is a bit of a worrier so he wouldnt be an AP play for me because he could easily pull him out on the day of the race because of the ground.

I really dont know what to make of the Irish runners in this. Footpad is the highest rated and he won well enough at the weekend however I really cant work out that form. Allblak Des Places looks like a solid horse and nothing more. He was only beaten by a couple of lengths in this and there still isnt an explanation that I can find for his disappointing run two starts before where he ran a very similar race but found nothing. I am not sure I can be having that race as an indicator for this and I think the pace may have been a little strong and they collapsed up front. I think Lets Dance may be the one to take out of the race but again I dont see her winning at Cheltenham.

Who knows what to really make of Ivanovich Gorbatov now. On his debut he did everything pretty much perfectly. His jumping was accurate, he quickened nicely and then put the raise to bed from a decent sort with relative ease. The time wasn’t great but it wasnt particularly slow either. I wonder whether his flat speed was shown to greater effect in that race but in truth he didnt do anything near as well on his second jumps start. If you got on this horse immediately after his latest defeat at Leopardstown then fair play as there was some double figures available I believe however he is too short now with such a big question to answer.

Sceau Royal looks another solid horse that shouldnt be far away but I dont see him improving as much as some of the others and the two races he has won well were weak ones. I can see him putting up good show but I think he is vulnerable from a win perspective. I would put Connetable in the same type of bracket and probably Gibralfaro, albeit I think there may be more improvement in the latter.

The UK trial for this race threw up an interesting result of which I have seen a few interpretations. My own interpretation is that Clan Des Obeaux probably would have won had Twiston-Davies committed to him earlier down the straight, albeit Protek Des Flos wouldnt have been far away either given how well he stayed. I haven’t really been convinced by Who Dares Wins so I was hoping to see him a bit further away however I think he would have been had Clan Des Obeaux surged on. Clan Des Obeaux really impressed me at Newbury and watching that race back again today, the way he powers away after an untidy jump at the last is really impressive. I have heard since that Twiston-Davies really rates the horse and I just cant help but think that they had it won once edging away from Who Dares Wins whilst on the bridle and a combination of the sticky ground, the Cheltenham hill and a sloppy jump at the last left him flat footed and didn’t allow him to lengthen away as he had at Newbury. Now looking forward to the festival, both he and the winner arent going to be sure to improve for the better ground. Even though Protek Des Flos had his ears pricked and had more to come once getting to the front, I can't help but think that he was only still in the race at that point because of the deep ground. If we expect much better ground come Gold Cup day then I could see him become badly outpaced and maybe only making late gains. Nicholls has already expressed concerns about quick ground for Clan Des Obeaux so like Fixe Le Kap, it isnt a given that he will run, but I expect good to soft ground will be fine and I can see him running a bold race. As for the other two, its hard to know what to expect from Consult De Thaix and I would put him in the same category as Who Dares Wins in that I just dont think he will be good enough and he was probably flattered to be as close to the 2^nd and slightly unfortunate to find a winner enjoying his ideal conditions at that trip. I would be interested to know if anyone else has a view on this trial?

Finally Indietir ran to a good mark in France and it would be interesting to see if Skelton gets this horse into a prep race somewhere first however he isnt entered anywhere else as yet.

Overall the main two I am interested in are Fixe Le Kap and Clan Des Obeaux but their participation is very much ground dependent, they are both horses I will leave until closer to the time. I am also a fan of Ivanovich Gorbatov based on that first hurdles run however I wouldnt like to take the price currently on offer.

( I have just watched the UK trial again and still cant believe Twiston-Davies doesnt press the button running towards the last flight!)

Small update on this following Fixe Le Kap's defeat this weekend.

Personally I thought it was a god awful ride around a sharp enough track. Bass didnt make nearly enough use of him and it looked as though it turned into a sprint finish. The horse is better than that and if anything it does help me get a better price!

[Blazing Bailey]

Thought I would just update the thread with a positional update thus far to see how I have got on with some of the horses I have backed.

 

Supreme - Buveur Dair - Advised 7/1 - Still 7/1

Arkle - Vaniteux 3/1 without Douvan - Now best priced 13/8

Neptune - A Toi Phil 12/1 - now 7/1

Neptune - Shantou Village 14/1 - Now going to the Albert Bartlett

RSA - Blaklion EW 12/1 - now 9/1

Champion Chase - Gods Own 33/1 EW - now 25/1

Champion Bumper - Ballyandy 11/1 (betfair) - Now between 13/2 and 7/1 on the exchanges.

Cross Country - Any Currency 10/1 - now 8/1

Ryannair - Village Vic 24/1 (betfair) - Now 15/1 on the exchanges albeit looking very weak.

Ryannair - Dynaste 26/1 (betfair) - Now between 22/1 and 23/1 but gradually shortening all the time.

World Hurdle - Thistlecrack 6/4 - Now 6/5

Dawn Run - Smart Talk 8/1 (betfair) - Now between 7/1 and 15/2

Triumph - Fixe Le Kap at 14/1 and then again at 24/1 - was slowly shortening again but is now back out to around 20/1

Triumph - Clan Des Obeaux at 40/1 - now around 20's on betfair

Albert Bartlett - Gangster 16/1 - Now 8/1

Gold Cup - Don Cossack 9/2 - Now 4/1 but I suspect this will now drift on the day

Gold Cup - Cue Card 6/1 - Now 5/1

 

On the whole it is worked out quite well this year, at least from a value standpoint before the racing gets underway however I suspect one of two of these will get bigger on the day itself whereas I suspect horses like Dynaste will shorten considerably to be almost a single figure price on the day.

Value is all well and good at this stage, but it doesn't mean anything unless they get the job done!

Roll on Tuesday!

 

[Blazing Bailey]

3 winners today albeit only two of them were better prices AP. Almost snuck Gods Own in there too who was a gallant 4th!

[Boulder5111]

Well done BB - some cracking results there, good luck for the next 2 days 

[Blazing Bailey]

Thanks Boulder, same to you.

 

Looks like you had a decent day today as well!

[Blazing Bailey]

Two more winners on the last two days with Thistlecrack (not that taking him AP at the stage I put on the thread would have helped get a better price) and Don Cossack coming in.

In the end I managed to only not have 2 runners getting their on the day which is not too bad and I made a profit out of them, albeit not with any massive price differences. I will try the same next year and be a little more proactive as I did back Thistlecrack after his Newbury run and Ballyandy after his Ascot 2nd.