Serie A > September 23rd - 25th

[Aidymac]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Tuesday 23 September 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Empoli v AC Milan (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.7[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.85[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.08 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Wednesday 24 September 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Cagliari v Torino (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.66[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.98[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.56 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Fiorentina v Sassuolo (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.46[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]8.2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.10 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Hellas Verona v Genoa (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.33 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Internazionale v Atalanta (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.46[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]9[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.21 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Juventus v Cesena (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.14[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]10[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]31[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.95 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Napoli v Palermo (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]8.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.96 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Parma v AS Roma (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.08[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.24 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Sampdoria v Chievo (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.02[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.45[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.55 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings, align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Thursday 25 September 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Lazio v Udinese (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.85[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.72 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Mindfulness]

Re: Serie A > September 23rd - 25th Empoli V AC Milan AC Milan -0.50 @ 1.877 (Pinnacle) > 5% BR This is a similar situation to the Empoli V Roma game from last week only Milan are available on a -0.50 line here where as Roma were -0.75. I managed to watch Cesena V Empoli at the weekend and it basically confirmed my initial assessment of Empoli, their style has not really changed from last year. They play a 4-3-1-2 module which is very similar to a 4-3-3, the only main difference is you can have an extra man receding into the central median area which boosts distribution options when building the play. I would say that ball retention, distribution, one-touch interplay and building attacks are Empoli’s main strengths. These characteristics can make them very easy on the eye and create the perception of impressive performance, however, I continue to notice that this current Empoli side have some serious fundamental flaws and I believe AC Milan are a team well suited to exploit these flaws. First of all Empoli’s defense is extremely vulnerable, both individually and systemically. Maurizio Sarri’s high pressing 4-3-1-2 module can become quite narrow and ends up leaving huge spaces in defensive flank positions. When opponents launch counter-attacks the amount of space they have to drive into is mind blowing. Empoli are often left facing one on one situations when defending their goal and this is particularly bad mathematics if you are dealing with an opposition that has skillful wing forwards who can take on and beat defenders. Empoli’s full-backs are great going forward but not the best defensively so generally speaking they are extremely poor at defending wing attacks. I would also point out that Empoli do not have their preferred centre-back partnership at the moment with Lorenzo Tonelli almost certainly injured for the Milan encounter so Federico Barba will continue to deputize, who is good in the air, but not so good at defending ground attacks. When we look at Milan under Inzaghi we see a 4-3-3 side which has strong countering ability and strong wing attacks, just the kind of attributes to cause this Empoli side problems. El Shaarawy, Bonaventura, Honda, Menez and Torres should relish playing in this kind of game and if they perform to a decent level on the night then they should cause Empoli all kinds of problems. At the other end of the pitch we can also see that Empoli’s attack is not firing on all cylinders either. Francesco Tavano casts a lonely figure upfront without his key strike partner - ‘Big Mac’ (Massimo Maccarone). Empoli’s attack does not have the same menace if the two of them do not play together and although Maccarone made the bench against Cesena, he cannot be expected to have that essential match sharpness yet after only just returning from an injury. I would also say there are question marks over whether the two of them can take the form they had in Serie B and replicate it at Serie A level, only time will tell. With problems at either end of the pitch for Empoli, the only area where they are genuinely strong is in the midfield with decent interplay and movement on the ball. I would say that Milan have the tools to disrupt this with the likes of Poli, De Jong, Muntari or perhaps for this game, Van Ginkel, who may enter the fold to freshen things up and provide that extra energy. So what are the risks for this selection? Well as I’ve said Milan are strategically well suited to this kind of opposition but it’s not the biggest value play in the universe as odds are only slightly out imo. In reality Milan should be about 1.80 imo so if it’s huge margins you’re looking for then this is probably not the game. We should also note that Milan expended a lot of physical and mental energy against Juventus so there maybe some slight rotation here to freshen things up. Empoli on the other hand had a strong home record in Serie B last year and will be looking forward to this clash after making a morale boosting comeback against Cesena at the weekend. There are also rumors that Bonera will return to the Milan defense for this encounter and although he provides decent distribution, I do not like Milan’s defending from set-pieces when he plays. Empoli put Cesena into trouble with ariel balls at the weekend so Milan must make sure they do not concede any unnecessary headed goals on Tuesday, going 1-0 down to some crappy set-piece is not what the doctor ordered here. Despite all this I think Inzaghi will know he cannot be complacent in view of this fixture and will look to rekindle the fire, passion and spirit we saw from this Milan team against Lazio and Parma. Ultimately a tough game for Milan here but they should have enough quality and know-how to take all 3pts, will be interesting to see how the game unfolds.

[ultravires]

Re: Serie A > September 23rd - 25th An excellent preview Das, thanks. I am going to wait for a line-up at least before getting on Milan tonight. If neither Menez or El Sha start then I'll probably leave them alone as Honda and Bonaventura are not best suited to exploit the wings - in terms of pace at least. Also, if Bonera starts then that is another negative. I agree with you that the value is already questionable so if these factors don't go how I want them to then it's a no bet for me. Elsewhere, Inter, Napoli and Fiorentina all look terribly short again. Bottom line, they would all take a one goal win, so clearing a -1.25 line does not seem likely. Gomez is injured again, but given how poorly he has played recently, that could be a plus for Fiorentina. I am not sure if I have the nuts to back any of the away sides yet. Samp to beat Chievo looks like a potential play.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Serie A > September 23rd - 25th

An excellent preview Das' date=' thanks. I am going to wait for a line-up at least before getting on Milan tonight. If neither Menez or El Sha start then I'll probably leave them alone as Honda and Bonaventura are not best suited to exploit the wings - in terms of pace at least. Also, if Bonera starts then that is another negative. I agree with you that the value is already questionable so if these factors don't go how I want them to then it's a no bet for me.[/quote'] Personally I think Honda as a wing forward has been decent so far this campaign, his vision and delivery in the final 3rd have both been strong. I agree with you that Bonaventura is not currently as strong as Milan's other forwards but he does have good dribbling ability and will take players on which should prove useful against Empoli's defense. If you have a clear idea of how you'd like Milan to setup in this game then waiting for lineups is a good idea because of slim margins, as a 3rd option you could take Milan in-play for a bigger value bet.

[weremole]

Re: Serie A > September 23rd - 25th Probable line up for AC Milan Abbiati Abate, Zapata, Bonera, De Sciglio Muntari, De Jong, Van Ginkel Honda, Torres, Menez Good news is Poli is finally out because he was awful in first 3 games and for the first time this season Pippo will start with real forward Bad news Lord Bonera is back, I think that is because Pippo has played with him during his career, because I can't find any other reason. Bonera looks so bad on the field he makes so many mistakes. De Sciglio is also out of form. Milan's defense doesn't look good. Again we have no create midfielder. Van Ginkel might change that? He is more destructive player but sure better than Poli. I guess Milan will have to wait for Montolivo to come back and probably Suso in januari. With those two Milan will look much better. About 3 players who should score goals, Menez is so far the best AC Milan player without doubt, Honda is playing good this season. Torres yet to prove that he worth. Milan has played very attacking football in first two games but I was disappointed how they played against Juventus. If they play like they've played in first two games, they should win this one. But I'm still not convinced how good AC Milan is this year

[Mindfulness]

Re: Serie A > September 23rd - 25th My analysis for the game tonight was not so good, Tonelli and Laurini made miraculous recoveries for Empoli and the home side defended way way better than they have done up to now this season, particularly in those full-back positions which is basically the complete polar opposite to what I said would happen. Empoli also defended very well as a team, which is also the polar opposite to what I said. Milan's penalty box defending was an absolute disgrace tonight, completely unacceptable, Inzaghi needs to get a stable centre-back partnership and just stick with it, you cannot keep rotating your centre-backs, it just invites trouble, I was hoping Empoli would not have the quality to capitalise but they performed very well in all areas tonight, credit to them. The only ray of light was Milan's front 3 who were superb throughout, particularly Torres and Menez. Apologies to anyone that followed tonight, has to be my poorest selection of the season so far, in retrospect we can see that the market priced this exactly right and really the value for Milan wasn't there. We move forward.

[afin93]

Re: Serie A > September 23rd - 25th Roma to win @$2.05 on Bet365 Can't go past a strong Roma side here who are topping the table at the moment and are flying high after destroying CSKA a week ago and getting a solid win at home on Sunday. Parma have started the season with two draws and a lose so far and I do not see the troubling Roma. Although they will be fielding a slightly weaker side to the one that played Cagliari on Sunday, their quality should be enough to win. 2-0

[ultravires]

Re: Serie A > September 23rd - 25th Re: Milan - I did think Inzaghi had made a credible start as manager, but his backing of best-mate Bonera is really getting out of hand. He was in the thick of the mess for both goals. It looks like any backing of Milan may as well be coupled with the goals market as there will not be many 1-0 or 2-0 wins for this team. Still, you were a little unfortunate Das as Menez's shot was very nearly a winner. As with afin93, I too am convinced of Roma tonight. Parma don't seem to have settled down this season. Their defence really misses Paletta and Cassani, as they aren't the most solid of sides at the best of times. Lodi has not yet got into his groove as regista, which is typically a very important position for teams like Parma. They don't have searing pace or physical presence. Cassano bailed them out at the weekend and I do see him being able to cause problems for an unsettled Roma defence. Overall though, Roma have both a technical and physical edge over Parma. DDR is out, but Roma are pretty stacked in CM and Nainggolan is on fire at the moment so that shouldn't be an issue. Pjanic is the technical player, and Keita comes somewhere between the two. Together they are a well balanced trio. Totti in for Destro is great because his playmaking will allow Gervinho and Florenzi to start in more dangerous positions, as opposed to doing more themselves from deep. The defence is a slight concern, but Roma should outscore Parma tonight. Roma win - 2.05 - 5 points - Bet365 I think that will be my only play, though I am considering fading Fiorentina, Inter and Napoli.

[kovac_]

Re: Serie A > September 23rd - 25th Just to point out that both Genoa and Sampdoria will make massive turnover due to next match in schedule being Genoa-Samp (Derby). "Il Derby" will be played next Sunday. Lineups by Gazzetta dello Sport: Genoa: Perin Marchese - De Maio - Izzo - Roncaglia Bertolacci - Greco - Mussis Lestienne - Matri - Iago Bench, among the others: Burdisso, Antonini, Pinilla, Perotti, Edenilson, Kucka, Sturaro. All of them being recurrent starters. Samp: Viviano Cacciatore - Romagnoli - Silvestre - Mesbah Kristicic - Marchionni - Rizzo Sansone - Bergessio - Fedato Bench, among the others: Gastaldello, De Silvestri, Obiang, Palombo, Soriano, Eder, Gabbiadini, Okaka. All being recurrent starters! These lineups are confirmed (-> Massive TurnOver) by local (Genoa) newspaper: Secolo XIX.

[TEG45]

Re: Serie A > September 23rd - 25th Parma vs Roma – Over 2,5 @ 1.94 Marathonbet One of the best games of the day. Roma is on fire with 3/3 wins on Serie A and goal difference 5-0! If we count the game against CSKA Moskva, the goal difference is 10-1. This shows how high are morale and confidence for the visitors, who have the first say to win tonight. Parma on the other side won for the first time last Sunday away 3-2 to Chievo. They not seem trustworthy defensively, they conceded in all three games a total of 7 goals and it would be a miracle if they keep a clean sheet tonight. My pick is Over 2,5 in this game.

[wongseefu]

Re: Serie A > September 23rd - 25th sorry wrong message in wrong section

[HastGill1]

Re: Serie A > September 23rd - 25th Good calls on Roma, would have been a travesty if they hadn't won..

[ultravires]

Re: Serie A > September 23rd - 25th It would have been really annoying if Pjanic didn't come to the rescue but it was far from an overwhelming performance from Roma. Totti is still the man, but when teams park like Parma did the other players can't benefit from his vision as much. It is always tough to break down sides that park, but Roma really weren't creating that much sustained pressure and got lucky in the end. They did contain Parma pretty well on the whole, so I don't think a win is unjust. Sooner or later Manolas is going to get himself into PK trouble, when he comes up against some of the better attackers. Definitely a decent result given the injuries. Cagliari look really screwed this season.

[De Graaf]

Re: Serie A > September 23rd - 25th Lazio (over1.5) vs Udinese It's late and it's probably a bad advice at this point, but I guess you could shop for it or watch it. Stats would back this bet, I'll paste some here. *Lazio have seen over 2.5 goals in their last 6 home matches against Udinese in all competitions. *Udinese have been losing at both half time and full time in 5of their last 7 away matches in Serie A. *Lazio have scored at least 2 goals in their last 5 home matches against Udinese in all competitions. *Udinese have conceded at least 2 goals in 7 of their last 8 away matches in Serie A. *Udinese have failed to win their last 8 away matches in Serie A. *There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Udinese's last 3games in Serie A. *Lazio are undefeated in their last 7 home matches in Serie A. *Lazio have scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 home matches in Serie A. *Lazio are undefeated in their last 5 home matches against Udinese in all competitions. Bumpy start for the hosts, the Milan debacle in the opener, last match they were short in Genoa , but missed a lot of chances in that match. Much of that result goes to the Genoese goalkeeper Perin, he is pulling it out of his socks lately, he did very well against Verona yesterday too, especially before the opening goal. A make-up match for them really tonight, they can do better. Udinese are not your best visiting side, did well against promoted Empoli as well as against Napoli last weekend, both matches at home. They'll sit back occasionally and run the counter , Kone should feature behind Di Natale and Muriel. Yes, Muriel is reportedly back and may feature here, they might sneak in somehow. Unlikely , but possible. Hence the goal option which is indeed worse because of the type of market, but one could just skip this otherwise from a betting point of view. Team total goals Lazio over 1.5. 1pt obviously. Forgot to mention the most important piece of info, both teams may rotate some due to schedule(check some reports), what is sure as that De Vrij will not feature and there are two more absentees in the hosts defensive line. So a second string at the back for them. Caution required at the fixed odds market.