September 22 - September 28

[CzechPunter]

Back Richard Gasquet to win ATP Shenzhen for a 2/10 stake at 8.00 with BetVictor Back Tommy Robredo to win ATP Shenzhen for a 2/10 stake at 13.00 with Bet365 Andy Murray and David Ferrer are the favorites, but I'd rather be on Gasquet and Robredo at the current odds. Both are capable of beating the two favorites and both have looked rather decent recently, so chances are that we aren't going to see a Murray-Ferrer final on Sunday. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/atp-shenzhen-betting-richard-gasquet-and-tommy-robredo-could-do-some-damage-in-china-next-week

[CzechPunter]

Re: September 22 - September 28 Back Nick Kyrgios to win ATP Kuala Lumpur for a 2/10 stake at 17.00 with Paddy Power Back Ernests Gulbis to win ATP Kuala Lumpur for a 4/10 stake at 5.00 with Paddy Power Back Pablo Cuevas to win ATP Kuala Lumpur for a 1/10 stake at 81.00 with Bet365 I'm sorry, but Nishikori below evens looks ridiculous to me. He's above the rest of the playing field, I'll give you that, but there are just way too many unknowns for me to even consider backing him. Kyrgios, Gulbis, and Cuevas all look better value to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/atp-kuala-lumpur-betting-the-japanese-grand-slam-finalist-looks-way-too-short-to-prevail-in-malaysia

[CzechPunter]

Re: September 22 - September 28 Back Lucie Safarova to beat Sabine Lisicki for a 7/10 stake at 1.86 with Pinnacle This looks like a good price to me, as I rate Safarova well above Lisicki these days. The Czech was a bit unlucky to have met Ivanovic in Tokyo, but she was playing well before that match and I think that she's going to beat Lisicki much more often than not here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/safarova-vs-lisicki-betting-lucie-safarova-to-defeat-sabine-lisicki-in-wuhan

[BallsforTennis]

Re: September 22 - September 28 Often the crux to many WTA match-ups are 'what the returner can do with the opponent's second serve'. ?So now let’s look at both these players’ second serves: Caroline Garcia's second serve: Garcia; talented big server, with, for a player on the WTA tour, an unusually effective, heavy, kick second serve. Now the work she gets on that second serve can press players' into a back foot position, or atleast restrict them from gaining access to a front-foot one. This is stopping the supply many WTA players’ FEED OFF., which is essentially gaining an easy upper advantage/edge in the point/rally, right from an early get-go. (Crushing or attacking second serves) This means Garcia holds dictatorship of the point, even after missing her first serve. Now when the kick serve goes from being a problem to a dilemma, that’s when Garcia really gets the joy she needs. The players' this becomes a REAL dilemma against tend to be those lacking in upper body strength. (Or even wingspan/reach) This upper body strength is needed to fend/fight off the gravity of the kick. The returning player is making contact with the ball largely above chest and even shoulder height. (As due to the topspin) Especially if they are under 5,7 feet tall. Now Radwanksa (As we know) is an ultra, super, light, feather weight in terms of tennis, so technically you would understand why she could struggle against high, topspin bouncing balls. If you want layman's proof on this, rather than my observational study of her game, then try and look at her record against two moonball specialists; Sara Errani and Caroline Woznaicki. Or even her dismal record on claycourts? Where the players' play with a lot more netclearance. (Topspin) Some may counter this argument and be suggesting 'ah well that's an irrelevant matter, as Radwanska is a defensive counterpuncher anyway and her game isn't to attack any serves or try to gain an immediate edge from the return'. Well that's not entirely true, because Radwanska often actually uses the power of her opponent's serve to deliver telling returns. That's what a counterpuncher does, absorb the pace of the shot coming at her. It's difficult job to absorb pace though off shots which aren't coming to you relatively flat, as they are not really arriving at any pace. That is why she struggles on the slower surfaces and also against the moonballers. Agneskia Radwanska's second serve Well; not a lot of depth to go into here, as well as she tries to place it, it tends to just float up for too long and gives players' too much time to move their feet around the ball and into their comfortable striking zone. Garcia is good at using her feet to find her strike zone on slow pace balls or anything mid-court. Will this serve and return of serve match-up issue prove enough? Well, as long as Caroline doesn't make many ridiculous errors from cleaning up simple one two punches available to her (From/when serving), she should really be holding serve fairly comfortably throughout. Additional factors for an upset: Ontop of this match-up issue for Radwanska I've highlighted, there's also the case of Aga being off colour with her usual counter-punching, ball-absorbing, court-crafting, little cat and annoying mouse game. Hence her results/form have plummeted drastically in comparison to previous seasons. Caroline does blow hot and cold with her front-foot aggressive ball-striking tennis, but I feel she's going to be a little too comfortable when on serve and when returning poor serves, for her cold patches to really prove that pivotal tbh. In summary: Radwanska won't get cheap points with her toddler's serve and her cat and mouse game has been mediocre this season, I don't really know or se how or why, she's going to win this one and these odds? Gotta be kidding me……???? Tip: Back the ML prematch and trade out the moment Garcia breaks and holds. Rinse, repeat, rinse repeat. Caroline Garcia to beat Agneskia Radwanska at 4.87 with Pinnacle - (5 units)

[shambata]

Re: September 22 - September 28 Monday, 09/22 Not a lot of action today as still a lot of qualifications going on in the itf tournaments, and the quali final matches can be very tricky, but many times we can find sime + value. Anyways I usually do a daily parlay (or more than one) that I dont think can lose, this is mine for today, odds are dropping fast. Its all women ITF, like it usually will be from me. Beatrice Haddad Maia to beat Husaric (Podgorica 25k) 1.14 (took it at 1.2 but already dropped) Maria Palhoto to beat Inclan Solis (Madrid 10k q) 1.28 Gebriela Mihaylova to beat Valeri Zatulko (Varna 10k q) 1.28 3 team parlay at odds of 1.86 at bet365, 7/10 units Good luck, more to follow!

[shambata]

Re: September 22 - September 28 Monday, 09/22 Maria Gutierrez Carrasco to beat Maria Martinez Martinez (Madrid 10k q) 3.25, 3/10 unit Wrong odds I believe as this is at the most a 50-50% match. G Carrasco playing at her home club in Madrid, she is ahead of Martinez in the spanish national ranking. Martinez is overvalued because of her good run in Sharm El Sheikh as a WC, but I think last week forst round q exit shows that she cooled off. Starting odd were at 3.75, this might go down to 2.75, no value under that.

[shambata]

Re: September 22 - September 28 Monday, 09/22 Imane Maelle Kocher to beat Manon Arcangioli (Clermond-Ferrand 25k q) @ 2.00, bet365, 5/10 unit Dissapointment year for Arcangioli, against not so well-known Kocher, who showed in the past tournaments that she can beat even better players than Arcagioli. Winning twice against Mendesova shows that. Last week she almost beat Brouleau, who I rate higher than Arcangioli right now. Given the opponents bad form and last year first round exit here against a big underdog (Albie), cannot bring back good memories. Good luck

[Gonzoka]

Re: September 22 - September 28 Martinez line moved down to 2,25.

[Durantula]

Re: September 22 - September 28

Often the crux to many WTA match-ups are 'what the returner can do with the opponent's second serve'. ?So now let’s look at both these players’ second serves: Caroline Garcia's second serve: Garcia; talented big server, with, for a player on the WTA tour, an unusually effective, heavy, kick second serve. Now the work she gets on that second serve can press players' into a back foot position, or atleast restrict them from gaining access to a front-foot one. This is stopping the supply many WTA players’ FEED OFF., which is essentially gaining an easy upper advantage/edge in the point/rally, right from an early get-go. (Crushing or attacking second serves) This means Garcia holds dictatorship of the point, even after missing her first serve. Now when the kick serve goes from being a problem to a dilemma, that’s when Garcia really gets the joy she needs. The players' this becomes a REAL dilemma against tend to be those lacking in upper body strength. (Or even wingspan/reach) This upper body strength is needed to fend/fight off the gravity of the kick. The returning player is making contact with the ball largely above chest and even shoulder height. (As due to the topspin) Especially if they are under 5,7 feet tall. Now Radwanksa (As we know) is an ultra, super, light, feather weight in terms of tennis, so technically you would understand why she could struggle against high, topspin bouncing balls. If you want layman's proof on this, rather than my observational study of her game, then try and look at her record against two moonball specialists; Sara Errani and Caroline Woznaicki. Or even her dismal record on claycourts? Where the players' play with a lot more netclearance. (Topspin) Some may counter this argument and be suggesting 'ah well that's an irrelevant matter, as Radwanska is a defensive counterpuncher anyway and her game isn't to attack any serves or try to gain an immediate edge from the return'. Well that's not entirely true, because Radwanska often actually uses the power of her opponent's serve to deliver telling returns. That's what a counterpuncher does, absorb the pace of the shot coming at her. It's difficult job to absorb pace though off shots which aren't coming to you relatively flat, as they are not really arriving at any pace. That is why she struggles on the slower surfaces and also against the moonballers. Agneskia Radwanska's second serve Well; not a lot of depth to go into here, as well as she tries to place it, it tends to just float up for too long and gives players' too much time to move their feet around the ball and into their comfortable striking zone. Garcia is good at using her feet to find her strike zone on slow pace balls or anything mid-court. Will this serve and return of serve match-up issue prove enough? Well, as long as Caroline doesn't make many ridiculous errors from cleaning up simple one two punches available to her (From/when serving), she should really be holding serve fairly comfortably throughout. Additional factors for an upset: Ontop of this match-up issue for Radwanska I've highlighted, there's also the case of Aga being off colour with her usual counter-punching, ball-absorbing, court-crafting, little cat and annoying mouse game. Hence her results/form have plummeted drastically in comparison to previous seasons. Caroline does blow hot and cold with her front-foot aggressive ball-striking tennis, but I feel she's going to be a little too comfortable when on serve and when returning poor serves, for her cold patches to really prove that pivotal tbh. In summary: Radwanska won't get cheap points with her toddler's serve and her cat and mouse game has been mediocre this season, I don't really know or se how or why, she's going to win this one and these odds? Gotta be kidding me……???? Tip: Back the ML prematch and trade out the moment Garcia breaks and holds. Rinse, repeat, rinse repeat. Caroline Garcia to beat Agneskia Radwanska at 4.87 with Pinnacle - (5 units)

Mate, just checking in to say thanks for your great analysis and tip. Very enjoyable read and even though we had some heart stopping moments in that last set tiebreaker, she got there in the end. Ended up putting a nice little bet on her after reading your analysis. Thanks mate!

[BallsforTennis]

Re: September 22 - September 28 You're more than welcome and the same goes to anyone else that followed it. :ok

[CzechPunter]

Re: September 22 - September 28 Back Karin Knapp (+1.5 sets) to beat Petra Kvitova for a 7/10 stake at 2.50 with 10Bet An obligatory bet against Kvitova in her first match after a while, but I think that it actually makes a lot of sense with Knapp playing really well recently. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/knapp-vs-kvitova-betting-karin-knapp-looks-value-against-petra-kvitova-in-wuhan

[CzechPunter]

Re: September 22 - September 28 Back Andrea Petkovic to beat Karolina Pliskova for a 7/10 stake at 1.88 with Pinnacle I will look quite silly if this loses, but I think that fatigue will finally get to Pliskova, as Petkovic is one of those players that can make things long and tough. The Czech has played way too much tennis over the last two weeks, so I expect Petkovic to simply outlast her on Tuesday. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/petkovic-vs-pliskova-betting-andrea-petkovic-to-stop-pliskova-s-incredible-run

[CzechPunter]

Re: September 22 - September 28 Back Barbora Zahlavova-Strycova to beat Madison Keys for a 7/10 stake at 2.60 with Pinnacle I'd have Barbora Zahlavova-Strycova around 2.25 here, 2.60 is just too much. There isn't much between the two quality-wise and this match is quite likely to be won by the player that will produce less silly errors, so Keys does look slightly overrated to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/zahlavova-strycova-vs-keys-betting-madison-keys-looks-slightly-overrated-after-her-victory-against-cibulkova

[shambata]

September 22 - September 28 Tuesday bank: -5.25 u Beatrice Lombardo to beat Carla Touly (Santa Margherita 10k) @2.37, 5/10 After falling out to junior Maria Smith last week in the 1st round, I cannot see why she is favoured against one of the better juniors in Italy. Line should be at pick 'em and thata where it might end up, so we take the extra points as value.

[shambata]

Re: September 22 - September 28 Ioana Ducu to beat Karman Kaur Thandi (Sharm el Sheikh 10k) @2.00, 8/10 Obviously mistake here by the oddsmakers. Ducu was 14the best junior in the world, more of a clay court player, so fast surface like this does not suit her best, but she is a class above her opponent and not favored? Thandi is a talented 16 year old and let's leave it there. Should be a 10/10 but because of the surface and the first round i stay with 8/10 conf. Odds will drop, this will be pounded heavily. GL!

[shambata]

Re: September 22 - September 28 Tuesday parlay Zarazua to beat Xi-Wei Cai Pantuckova to beat Kaminkova Chiesa to beat Inclan Solis Bolsova Zadionov to beat Roemer Saez Larra to beat Versteeg Simion to beat Duca odds cca @2.00, bet365, 5/10 gl

[CzechPunter]

Re: September 22 - September 28 Back Caroline Garcia to beat Coco Vandeweghe for a 7/10 stake at 2.15 with Pinnacle I'm a bit worried about Vandeweghe's serve, but Garcia has beaten Venus Williams and Agnieszka Radwanska here, which does count for a lot in my book. I'd have her as a slight favorite in this one, so everything above evens looks worth taking to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/garcia-vs-vandeweghe-betting-caroline-garcia-worth-a-bet-to-defeat-coco-vandeweghe-in-wuhan

[CzechPunter]

Re: September 22 - September 28 Back Filip Krajinovic to beat Julien Benneteau for a 7/10 stake at 2.73 with Pinnacle Benneteau has been up and down all season long and he was dreadful against Jiri Vesely in the Davis Cup, so I can definitely see him losing against Krajinovic, who beat Taro Daniel 6-2 6-4 in the first round, tomorrow. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/krajinovic-vs-benneteau-betting-filip-krajinovic-has-what-it-takes-to-upset-the-frenchman-on-wednesday

[CzechPunter]

Re: September 22 - September 28 Back Karolina Pliskova (+1.5 sets) to beat Petra Kvitova for a 7/10 stake at 1.87 with Pinnacle Pliskova has enough power to keep things tight against Kvitova and you can't argue with her form really, her recent record is simply unbelievable, so I'll back the in-form player on the set handicap in this one. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/pliskova-vs-kvitova-betting-karolina-pliskova-can-give-petra-kvitova-a-really-good-run-for-her-money

[shambata]

Re: September 22 - September 28 nice 2 wins with the singles, I think I will leave the parlays out for the better. bankroll: +5.25u

[shambata]

Re: September 22 - September 28 Wednesday Rocio de la Torre Sanchez to beat Charlotte Roemer (Madrid 10k) @2.5, bet365, 5/10 Roemer huge win yesterday against top junior Bolsova, overvalued against spanish ex 300 wta DT Sanchez. It is not sure wether this match will play on Wed or Thu but I rather post this early. Bolsova loss against Roemer could have been cause she jnjured, it was very un-Bolsova like 2nd set 1-6... that might have inflated this line for our favour. GL

[shambata]

Re: September 22 - September 28 Clothilde de Bernardi to beat Julie Coin (Clermont Ferrand 25k) @2.5, bet365, 5/10 Julie Coin, the veteran, playing better tennis nowadays than before in the year. But might not be enough vs. top junior De Bernardi who just ha two easy 10k victories and is a hard court lover. De Bernardi showed us she can beat vetetans like Coin before in 25k's, so why not case this small upset at home, with plus money I take the in-form 20 year old who has not lost a set in her 10k triumph last week. GL

[shambata]

Re: September 22 - September 28 Francesca Segarelli to beat Ximene Hermoso @2,37 bet365 5/10 Hermoso has played the last match on clay in March, and it was the only match on clay for her this year. Segarelli is maybe even better as the ranking shows, so she can beat these players. Hermoso has been beaten several times by similar players in the past months and she was the true fade material the last months, as you can see her first round exits. They were all plus money, so is Segarelli now. The only way this bet loses if Hermoso has gone back to the factory and come back much stronger than her last 3 tournaments. Give me a good enough player after an upset victory (vs wta 200 shapatava) in the first round against a Hermoso who got her first win since 3 months time vs an easy opponent, all of this at 2.37, I will always take it.

[shambata]

Re: September 22 - September 28 Ingrid Neel to beat Nathalia Rossi (Amelia Island 10k) @1.75, 6/10

[Nes*]

Re: September 22 - September 28 any opinion nieminen to beat L.Mayer? :cheers

[CzechPunter]

Re: September 22 - September 28

Ingrid Neel to beat Nathalia Rossi (Amelia Island 10k) @1.75' date= 6/10

At least one line of reasoning would be excellent ;).

any opinion nieminen to beat L.Mayer? :cheers

I'd rather be on him than on Mayer, but I'm hardly convinced.

[shambata]

Re: September 22 - September 28 czech: it was kinda last minute... sorry!! I still cannot edit my posts btw

[shambata]

Re: September 22 - September 28 oh and great find on garcia!!! 2 76 in the third lifted her up big time, I had some in the 2-0 as well!! good job!!!

[CzechPunter]

Re: September 22 - September 28 Back Caroline Garcia (+1.5 sets) to beat Petra Kvitova for a 7/10 stake at 2.12 with Pinnacle Garcia seems to be on fire at the moment, so I do fancy her chances of taking a set off Kvitova tomorrow. The Czech didn't look all that comfortable against Pliskova yesterday and she could've easily lost that one, so I wouldn't have Garcia above evens on the set handicap. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/garcia-vs-kvitova-betting-caroline-garcia-looks-value-against-the-world-s-number-three-in-wuhan

[CzechPunter]

Re: September 22 - September 28

czech: it was kinda last minute... sorry!! I still cannot edit my posts btw

You should be able to do so once you hit 20 posts I believe.