MPLouis Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 There have been changes along the way' date=' I'd have to go back and do some analysis to see if any could have had any bearing on the poor results ...[/quote'] In my bets, I often see a pattern and then move fairly quickly to adopt my betting to what I see as a 'winning system' ... and it almost always then goes wrong. For example, I had a pattern recently when I made money betting on in-play 'unders' - I won nearly every bet for several days. Then I increased the stakes a bit, and bet on more games - and sure enough a steady string of losing bets followed :loon I thought your approach of backing bets where a bookie was offering odds with a noticeable 'edge' over the market (?) was a promising one, and that's why I'm surprised at such a big downturn ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 5, 2015 Author Share Posted September 5, 2015 Let's hope for a bit of an upturn with this selection! Wales v Italy: 10 points on Williams to score a try at 9/2 with BF Sportsbook Edge of 62%. Next best price is 7/4 and, though most of his tries have come when he was a sub, I still think he shouldn't be such a big price against today's opponents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dumyat Posted September 5, 2015 Share Posted September 5, 2015 They have voided the 9/2 and will settle at 5/4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 6, 2015 Author Share Posted September 6, 2015 They have voided the 9/2 and will settle at 5/4. They did indeed cut the price from 9/2 to 5/4, I checked Oddschecker when I saw your post. I had no indication of the bet being retrospectively adjusted though, so have the dubious pleasure of recording it as a loser at 9/2! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dumyat Posted September 6, 2015 Share Posted September 6, 2015 I received a call from BF after I tried a tenner on your pick. They gave me the option of voiding the bet or keeping but would be settled at 5/4 - I voided - didn't they try and contact you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 6, 2015 Author Share Posted September 6, 2015 I was going to say "no" as I would have expected an email or something within my account but I did get a call from a blocked number at 3 o'clock yesterday afternoon. I never answer such calls as they are usually firms offering to reclaim miss sold Payment Protection Insurance! Given the choice you were offered I would have voided the bet. As they simply settled it as a loser I can only trust they would have honoured the bet had it won! Either way, I'd have recorded the actual outcome in the results if the bet had won. The only other similar instance in this thread resulted in an email from the firm in question telling me the bet was voided and leaving it up to me whether I wished to bet again at the revised price. I left that one alone and posted in advance that the bet had been voided. In this instance, all I can do is record it as a loser and wish that I'd answered that phone call! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 18, 2015 Author Share Posted September 18, 2015 Tonga v Georgia: 10 points on Gorgodze to score a try at 5/1 with Lads 24.5% edge, also tipped by the RP who think Georgia could land the 9/2 win, let alone stay within the handicap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 19, 2015 Author Share Posted September 19, 2015 Ireland v Canada: 10 points on O'Brien to score a try at 3.05 on BF (acceptable at 15/8) 29.9% edge and fancied over in the World Cup thread in the Rugby forum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 20, 2015 Author Share Posted September 20, 2015 Samoa v USA: 10 points on Faasavalu to score a try at 8 on BF (13/2 with Spreadex acceptable) Edge of 72.7%, stats not very supportive but with that much edge and two winners yesterday I'm just about persuaded to back him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 20, 2015 Author Share Posted September 20, 2015 Also had 10 points on Durutalo to score a try at 8/1 with BF Sportsbook Edge of 17.2%, quite appealing on his recent stats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 20, 2015 Author Share Posted September 20, 2015 Wales v Uruguay: 10 points on Tipuric to score a try at 2.33 with 888 Edge of 29.8 %. Not surprisingly, the bookies aren't taking any chances with Wales tryscorer prices but I've decided to go with this one, the only player on either side to be shortlisted by the system. I was going to pass him up based on just 2 tries from 33 caps but they don't play Uruguay in every game and he scored those tries in each of his last 2 outings. The clincher for me was that he's been tipped by the RP at 10/11 so, given the way their tips and they system selections have performed so far, it makes it an obvious call to take him at odds against. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 24, 2015 Author Share Posted September 24, 2015 Overdue for an update though not too many bets since the last one. Will update after Sunday's action. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 24, 2015 Author Share Posted September 24, 2015 Argentina v Georgia: 5 points on Kvirikashvili to score a try at 10/1 with PPEdge of 20.8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 25, 2015 Author Share Posted September 25, 2015 South Africa/Samoa: 5 points on Lam to score a try at 11.12 on BF.Edge of 59.5%. Still available at 11, 9/1 acceptable if not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 26, 2015 Author Share Posted September 26, 2015 Italy v Canada: 10 points on van der Merwe to score a try at 4.61 on BFEdge of 52.8%. A borderline bet at the best available 3/1 but definitely appeals at 4.5 or 4.6 exchange price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 27, 2015 Author Share Posted September 27, 2015 Scotland v USA:10 points on Strauss to score a try at 7/2 with Spreadex10 points on Russell to score a try at 5/1 with Skybet10 points on Scully to score a try at 17/2 with VC10 points on Durutalo to score a try at 9/1 several firmsEdges of 47%, 46.1%, 79% and 30.2% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 27, 2015 Author Share Posted September 27, 2015 Ireland v Romania: 5 points on Macovei to score a try at 14/1 with SkybetEdge of 64.7% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 27, 2015 Author Share Posted September 27, 2015 First update since before the World Cup.Starting bank 1000 pointsCurrent bank 1073.87 pointsTotal staked 5609 pointsNumber of bets 555 Winning bets 91 Losing bets 464 Strike rate 16.4%Yield 1.32%Profit (or Loss) +73.87 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 South Africa v Scotland: 10 points on Visser to score a try at 9/2 with LadsEdge of 33.9%, best available price was 10/3 which was no more than fair but at this enhanced price he definitely appeals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 5, 2015 Author Share Posted October 5, 2015 Fiji v Uruguay: 10 points on Qera to score a try at 5/2 with the Tote or Betfred, 10 points on Waqaniburoto to score a try at 7/2 with SpreadexEdges of 40.2% and 25.1% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 New Zealand v France: 10 points on McCaw to score a try at 11/2 with 888Edge of 34.9%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 An overdue update. If I'm honest, I've been looking that closely at the World Cup games that I've not always focused on the system bets aspect. For what it's worth, there have been 4 winners from 17 bets in World Cup games showing just over a 2 point profit.Starting bank 1000 pointsCurrent bank 1033.87 pointsTotal staked 5649 pointsNumber of bets 559 Winning bets 91 Losing bets 468 Strike rate 16.23%Yield 0.6%Profit (or Loss) +33.87 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 I appreciate it's all gone a bit quiet over here so thought I'd share my intentions. I'm planning to start a new thread with a new system, possibly on 1st January with a view to running it for the whole of 2016. With this in mind, I've created a new spreadsheet and been trying it out since the World Cup. There's been some evolution during the life of this thread and I feel any further changes mean it would be more appropriate to treat it as a new system. Current intentions are as follows. Fixed odds anytime bets will still be the main focus. With more firms offering a wider range of prices there's greater scope for value than on the spreads. I may include the occasional "2 or more tries" bet as well. The main change will be basing the selection more on the market midpoint of the spread prices than just on the best available buy price. Currently, I'd treat two players the same way if all the spread firms priced one's try minutes at 7-10 and the other's at 7-10 and 10-13. The respective midpoints of their prices are 8.5 and 10, meaning the 2nd player is valued more highly than the first. At the same fixed odds price I'd be more likely to back the 2nd player than the 1st one. Buys of player try minutes will be included again but with stricter criteria meaning there will be less potential bets to review, hopefully with a greater chance of value. (For instance, I may not bet on any player who is 7-10 with all firms but might consider those who can be bought or sold at 10. Such "spread free" bets are the equivalent of a 100% fixed odds book.) Buys of "Hotshots" will be included, where the firms quote a price for 4 named players based on 25 points being awarded per try. The spreadsheet prices that market up for me so it's no extra work to spot potential bets and not much effort to decide whether to place a bet. This appeals as a way of spreading risk further and a single try can often be enough to show a small profit. Finally, as well as tracking the performance of the actual selections, I'd like to compare that to blindly backing every shortlisted selection or the (say) top 6 based on the perceived edge. Put simply, no point in spending ages on research to reach a subjective decision if backing some or all of the selections blindly yields better results. The spreadsheet just needs a bit more work to be ready to go. In the meantime, there might be the occasional selection in here based on the current criteria. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 27, 2015 Author Share Posted November 27, 2015 Edinburgh v Dragons: 10 points on du Preez at 5/1 10 points on Hardie at 6/1 5 points on Burleigh at 10/1 All with PP, edges of 24.5%, 45.3% and 65.3%. In terms of the "true" price suggested by the midpoint of the spread prices (see previous post) the edges would be 13.3%, 25.6% and 54.3% so still decent on that basis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 27, 2015 Author Share Posted November 27, 2015 Northampton v Gloucester: 10 points on Burrell to score a try at 9/2 with Lads Edge of 24.1% (14.1% compared to the midpoint). Also had a small bet on him for 2 or more at 40/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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