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harry_rag

Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets

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South Africa v Argentina: 5 points each on Tuculet to score a try at 10/1 with Skybet Leguizamon to score a try at 12/1 with Betfred Matera to score a try at 14/1 with Lads Edges of 20.8%, 42.7% and 33.2%, half stakes given the speculative nature of these selections. De Villiers, Coetzee and Brussow all solid looking shortlist entrants but their stats just don't convince me (especially the last named).

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No joy with Hooper though got money back as a free bet as a result of the 1st try being scored by a forward. Have used that on the first of these. Ireland v Scotland: 10 points on Visser to score a try at 3/1 and 5 points on Vernon to score a try at 10/1, both with BF Sportsbook Edges of 17.8% and 43.3%.

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0 from 5 for the last 2 weeks. I've not included the free bet mentioned last week in the results (i.e. I'm 10 points better off in real terms but am keeping it simple for recording purposes). Starting bank 1000 points Current bank 1051.8 points Total staked 5474 points Number of bets 540 Winning bets 87 Losing bets 453 Strike rate 16.11% Yield 0.95% Profit (or Loss) +51.8 points

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1 bet and 1 loser this week as the bank ebbs, seemingly inevitably, back to where it started. As the system heads towards its 1st full 12 months it suprising now to look back on how well it started. 5 of the 1st 6 month end updates saw an increase in profit and it wasn't until month 8 that the overall yield wasn't in double digits. On the other hand, only one of the last 6 months saw a profit made, with April seeing most of the damage done. I'm sure there are some lessons to be learned when I get time to reflect properly on the results. Starting bank 1000 points Current bank 1041.8 points Total staked 5484 points Number of bets 541 Winning bets 87 Losing bets 454 Strike rate 16.08% Yield 0.76% Profit (or Loss) +41.8 points

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1 bet and 1 loser this week as the bank ebbs, seemingly inevitably, back to where it started. As the system heads towards its 1st full 12 months it suprising now to look back on how well it started. 5 of the 1st 6 month end updates saw an increase in profit and it wasn't until month 8 that the overall yield wasn't in double digits. On the other hand, only one of the last 6 months saw a profit made, with April seeing most of the damage done. I'm sure there are some lessons to be learned when I get time to reflect properly on the results. Starting bank 1000 points Current bank 1041.8 points Total staked 5484 points Number of bets 541 Winning bets 87 Losing bets 454 Strike rate 16.08% Yield 0.76% Profit (or Loss) +41.8 points
Although not a Rugby bettor, I followed this thread early on and saw your early successes. Pretty surprised to see such a big reverse now. Winning and losing runs are likely in most strategies I think, but if you're using the same system for working your bets, such a big up and down wave seems hard to understand. Are you sure you haven't changed your selection or staking methods?

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There have been changes along the way, I'd have to go back and do some analysis to see if any could have had any bearing on the poor results. I've switched to level stakes recently but that's probably just helped preserve the positive balance for a little bit longer. The biggest changes have been stopping the spread bets and any bets on Southern Hemisphere club games. Both of those decisions were sound enough based on results at the time. I suppose it's impossible to say whether there would have been subsequent good results on those bets to make up for the losses that came on the bets I carried on placing. I'll have a think between now and the start of the World Cup.

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There have been changes along the way' date=' I'd have to go back and do some analysis to see if any could have had any bearing on the poor results ...[/quote'] In my bets, I often see a pattern and then move fairly quickly to adopt my betting to what I see as a 'winning system' ... and it almost always then goes wrong. For example, I had a pattern recently when I made money betting on in-play 'unders' - I won nearly every bet for several days. Then I increased the stakes a bit, and bet on more games - and sure enough a steady string of losing bets followed :loon I thought your approach of backing bets where a bookie was offering odds with a noticeable 'edge' over the market (?) was a promising one, and that's why I'm surprised at such a big downturn ...

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Let's hope for a bit of an upturn with this selection! Wales v Italy: 10 points on Williams to score a try at 9/2 with BF Sportsbook Edge of 62%. Next best price is 7/4 and, though most of his tries have come when he was a sub, I still think he shouldn't be such a big price against today's opponents.

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They have voided the 9/2 and will settle at 5/4.
They did indeed cut the price from 9/2 to 5/4, I checked Oddschecker when I saw your post. I had no indication of the bet being retrospectively adjusted though, so have the dubious pleasure of recording it as a loser at 9/2!

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I received a call from BF after I tried a tenner on your pick. They gave me the option of voiding the bet or keeping but would be settled at 5/4 - I voided - didn't they try and contact you?

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I was going to say "no" as I would have expected an email or something within my account but I did get a call from a blocked number at 3 o'clock yesterday afternoon. I never answer such calls as they are usually firms offering to reclaim miss sold Payment Protection Insurance! Given the choice you were offered I would have voided the bet. As they simply settled it as a loser I can only trust they would have honoured the bet had it won! Either way, I'd have recorded the actual outcome in the results if the bet had won. The only other similar instance in this thread resulted in an email from the firm in question telling me the bet was voided and leaving it up to me whether I wished to bet again at the revised price. I left that one alone and posted in advance that the bet had been voided. In this instance, all I can do is record it as a loser and wish that I'd answered that phone call!

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Wales v Uruguay: 10 points on Tipuric to score a try at 2.33 with 888 Edge of 29.8 %. Not surprisingly, the bookies aren't taking any chances with Wales tryscorer prices but I've decided to go with this one, the only player on either side to be shortlisted by the system. I was going to pass him up based on just 2 tries from 33 caps but they don't play Uruguay in every game and he scored those tries in each of his last 2 outings. The clincher for me was that he's been tipped by the RP at 10/11 so, given the way their tips and they system selections have performed so far, it makes it an obvious call to take him at odds against.

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