Faramund Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Hi all, just looking for some discussion on purely stats based systems. A system I have in mind of building takes its cues primarily from economic principles and analysis of markets and translating it to betting markets. Obviously the prices given by a bookmaker are a reflection of information known by the market. Using the market prices delivered by bookmakers, the numbers will contain information such as form, players in or out of teams, table positions etc. While there are clearly risks with not applying a level of knowledge and reasoning to your bets, has anyone had any success with betting purely based on numbers, and a wagering system based on the risk that the odds convey. Very curious to see whether this can be applied with no or little knowledge of a given sport or league. I know that there are risks with long droughts of results, and when favourites lose, but a sound wagering system might be able to control these risks. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Re: Stats Based Betting System Hi, Faramund, :welcome to the forum, nice to see you decided to get involved in discussions! :ok Can you, please, explain your system, I'm afraid I did not understand it? has anyone had any success with betting purely based on numbers' date=' and a wagering system based on the risk that the odds convey.[/quote'] What numbers?! :unsure Odds? Table position? Form? Ratings? Something else? I understand you want to select your bets without any knowledge about that match; that means you want to bet based only on odds? But if you blindly bet on all matches, you're almost guaranteed to lose over the course of the season. If you're looking only for odds in specific range, you can find some odds ranges that were profitable in the past, but that doesn't mean they will be profitable in the future. So if it's your intention, I don't think you can profit in the long run. And wagering system is, of course, always based on the risk implied by the odds - more accurate your estimation whether the odds are worth taking, lower risk for your bank, and vice versa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faramund Posted September 9, 2014 Author Share Posted September 9, 2014 Re: Stats Based Betting System Thank you for your reply! Sorry i wasn't clear, the numbers are just the odds Basically i was working on betting results for favourites under 1.5 odds in 5 major football leagues (EPL, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1 and Liga BBVA) i took historical data of last year, which had average odds from around 20ish bookmakers to give me accurate odds. With flat betting stakes, the system gave a 39.85% return on investment, and this data included a rough patch of 8 losses in 11 matches. During the season however this return went as high as 77%. Of the 417 games across these leagues that met the odds criteria, 326 of them paid out, a 78% result. Most of these were home favourites, with their winning percentage coming in at 80%, and away favourites slightly lower at 69%. A stronger wagering system may be able to take advantage of this than simple flat stakes. I do not have the strongest knowledge of football, being non-European, without my investigation i have very limited exposure to football news, particularly outside of the occasional EPL scores. Now with some application of knowledge, even simple stuff like being wary of Man Utd until they sort out their formation and playing group will let me avoid some riskier bets, but largely the system would be left as a number crunching excercise , withthe risks being spread across many bets. I understand that this isnt fool-proof, but the price set by a bookmaker is essentially based on supply and demand for the bet, and the demand is driven by people who have more knowledge than me betting on it. Due to being really quite busy i havnt been able to do any paper runs on the current season, this is the first chance i have had to visit this since the off season. Hope that cleared it up a bit! Thanks for your feedback! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Re: Stats Based Betting System 417 ( a Confidence Interval of 90% or +/- .05% ) games is nowhere near enough data to evaluate whether it is profitable or not to actually start throwing money at it,a minimum of 1600 games (CI of 95% or +/- 0.025%) should be your starting point before even considering small stakes on anything. Games 417 wins 326 SR 78% Actual longest losing run 8 Lets consider the expected worst case scenario on what you've got so far (CI of 90% or +/- .05%) rounded to nearest whole number. 417 *1.05 = 438 games 326/438 =74% sr Actual LLR (8) - Expected LLR (5)= +3 (beware,this number should be negative) So just by looking at a few pieces of the info you have given we are seeing warning signs that ('statistically') the profit could be just down to variance. Personally if I were to create a system purely on bookmakers odds as you have done I would always take the worst possible odds available when backtesting in the knowledge that if it did in fact make a profit I should always be able to get a better price when going live ;) Best of luck with your system..I hope it works out . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
methuselah Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Re: Stats Based Betting System Well Faramund, It looks like you must test for another 4 years. He who dares wins , so just go ahead and enjoy punting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Re: Stats Based Betting System Well Faramund' date=' It looks like you must test for another 4 years.[/quote'] easily done with data from football-data, take about 1hr to download and parse the lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
methuselah Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Re: Stats Based Betting System The point about the statement is that punting should be an enjoyable pastime . It might well cost you money but the fun is in trying. THAT is the real value of the statement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Re: Stats Based Betting System The point about the statement is that punting should be an enjoyable pastime . It might well cost you money but the fun is in trying. THAT is the real value of the statement. Im sure the bookies agree with you whole heartedly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
methuselah Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Re: Stats Based Betting System I,m sure they do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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