Vuelta Espana 2014.

[antogz]

Putting this up now as I'm sure the price will fall. Thibaut Pinot to win the mountain classification. He has said winning stages and the classification are his main goal.I'm sure he will be the highest profile climber that will say this, so the 8/1 with bet victor looks a steal. 4pts e/w Pinot KOM 8/1 Bet victor. I wouldn't go backing the GC favourites yet till I hear more about Froome and especially Contador's progress.

[antogz]

Re: Vuelta Espana 2014. I think stage 3 should finish in a reduced bunch sprint and I am going for Degenkolb for the win at 4/1. He will like the uphill finish and he should be too strong for Sagan and Mathews who would like it a bit more difficult. He finished 2nd yesterday to Bouhanni so has good form and he really shouldn't be beaten in this type of finish. 3pt win Degenkolb 4/1 Boyles and SJ.

[antogz]

Re: Vuelta Espana 2014. No good yesterday with Degenkolb finding the climb too hard. Today should be a reduced sprint as well and I don't think the favourite Bouhanni will make it over the last climb. Degenkolb form has to be a worry and I don't think Matthews is fast enough to win a sprint with who is left. I like Gatto at 20/1, he should get over the last climb and he has a fast sprint as well. I also like Guardini at 80/1 he is over-priced to me eventhough that last climb might be too difficult. He is a good descender so has a chance to get back on. 1.5pts e/w Gatto 20/1 Lads 0.5pts e/w Guardini 80/1 bet 365.

[antogz]

Re: Vuelta Espana 2014. First MT finish tomorrow with a really steep short climb. It should come down to the GC contenders. Rodriguez is clear favourite in this type of finish,he is the most likelier winner but he is a bit short at 15/8 for me. I'd rather back D Martin e/w at 13/2. He is also excellent at these finishes and looks in super form even dropping Rodriguez on stage 3 in a similar albeit shorter finish. My outsiders are Aru at 50/1, he is going to be a super talent and will love this type of finish as well. Arredondo is my other at 66/1, he will be looking for stage wins and not being a GC threat he would have leeway to attack. 2pts e/w Martin 13/2 Lads 0.5pts e/w Aru 50/1 lads 0.5pts e/w Arredondo 66/1 Lads

[antogz]

Re: Vuelta Espana 2014. Martin blew up yesterday, the heat got to him, Aru gave us a good run for our money finishing 6th. We had a great finish yesterday with Valverde coming out on top. It really is going to be an exciting Veulta with the array of talent on show. It is going to put the Tour to shame and will be well worth watching. Today will be 50-50 whether a break stays away, I'm inclined to think a break will do it, if not Mathews has to win this and the 3/1 on offer is a very could be a great price. I'll be all over that if it looks the break won't do it. It looks like the first opportunity for a break to stay away, the undulating course should really help them. Also I can't see any of the GC teams chase it down or FDJ or Giant who will be waiting for the following stage. It will be left up to Greenedge and BMC I'd say. If a strong break can form they will be very hard to pull back. Expect guys like Nocentini, Sagan, Gatto, Pineau, Pozzato, Martin, Jungels, Vorganov, Hesjedal, Hardy, Sbaragil Yates and LL Sanchez giving it a go. If a combination of these guys can get in a break they have a very good chance. I'm going Martin, Sanchez and Gatto today. The finish should suit Gatto very well, the whole profile is made for Sanchez and he must try something, while Martin is suited to this terrain as well, if he can get into TT mode he would be very hard to beat. My outsider at 200/1 is Hesjedal,while he might like a harder profile he hasn't been in super form and could try this easier stage, also his teammate Talansky will be going for the harder one's as well, so he is worth a punt at the price. 1.5 pts e/w Sanchez 50/1 PP 1pt e/w Gatto 40/1 PP 1pt e/w Martin 50/1 Hills 0.5pts e/w Hesjedal 200/1 Bet365 and Lads.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Vuelta Espana 2014. I've taken two today, Pippo Pozzato @ $81 (Unibet) and Anthony Roux @ 150 (Betfair). It's the type of finish that I see suiting Pozzato and I always like to take classics riders for breaks because they know how to win and when the big moments are. Roux is a perennial breakway artist, particularly in the Vuelta. Finish may or may not be too hard for him but happy to have him on side at these prices.

[antogz]

Re: Vuelta Espana 2014. Fairly sick over yesterday my outisde tip Hesjedal 200/1 had the race at his mercy but fell at a bend in the road in the last 13 KM. He was even money at the time of falling with eventual stage winner De Marchi 3/1 at the time. I'm 95% certain he would have won as he was in way better form than De Marchi, very hard to take at the moment. Today is a boring stage and it should be a shoot out between Bouhanni and Degenkolb. If Degenkolb hadn't crashed yesterday I would be all over him at 7/2. He has the best lead out train and you need a good one today with the winds. I'm going to have an e/w bet on Guardini 18/1. He has done nothing so far and on his day he is the quickest after the big 2, the finish should suit him so he is my pick. Going to have a small bet on T Martin he might try something if the winds are strong. 1pt e/w Guardini 18/1 PP o.5pts e/w Martin 66/1 Boyles

[antogz]

Re: Vuelta Espana 2014. Today we have another MT finish and I am going to go with a break again today. I don't think the GC teams wil chase down a break and if the right break forms it should stay away. I expect guys who are very good climbers but no threat on GC to form the break today. Arredondo, Trofimov, A Yates, Talansky, Coppel, Van Den Broeck, Bouet, Ellissonde, Wyss and Kangert all come to mind and if 3 of these could get in the break it would have a good chance of sticking. Of the above I'm going with Coppel,Yates, Bouet and Kangert. I think most of the others might leave it for later in the race and the more difficult climbs. 1pt e/w Yates 34/1 Hills 0.5 pts e/w Coppel 250/1 PP 0.5 pts e/w Kangert 250/1 Lads 0.5 pts e/w Bouet 250/1 bet victor

[Darran]

Re: Vuelta Espana 2014. Not had chance to watch much, but off today and watching the TT. That was a horrid crash by Quintana and Contador looks surprisingly strong given the injury he suffered in the Tour.

[antogz]

Re: Vuelta Espana 2014. Contador has been excellent considering what happened, pity Quintana crashed today as it would have been a great challenge between them. Froome looks cooked to me and it will take a big turnaround in form for him to be involved. PP are the only one's with betting for tomorrow. Contador is way too short at 11/8. The best value out of the GC riders is Valverde at 12/1. He has looked very good so far and he will try and attack tomorrow. I think a breakaway will do it again and expect guys like Yates, Arredondo, Talansky, Evans, Van Den Broeck, Zubeldia, Bouet, Niemic, Arroyo and Pouels, having a try. 0.5pts e/w Zubeldia 200/1 0.5pts e/w Arroyo 150/1 1pt/w Van Den Broeck 80/1 1pt e/w Evans 125/1. all with Powers

[antogz]

Re: Vuelta Espana 2014. Going to go with a few from the break tomorrow and Degenkolb, while the finish looks a bit hard he has been going very well and has the form to get back on in the end. My picks from the break are LL Sanchez, Kolobnev and T Martin. 1pt e/w LL Sanchez 40/1 Hills 1pt e/w Degenkolb 66/1 bet 365 1pt e/w Martin 66/1 PP 1pt e/w Kolobnev 66/1 bet victor

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Vuelta Espana 2014. Unlucky the the other day on Ryder Antogz. Was a great selection nonetheless, though scant consolation in lieu of actual profits. Today J-Rod looks to be a big fav with Contador, implying little chance of a break succeeding. However, with such a short climb at the end and only with at 1 in between today looks to me to give the break a chance, especially given it is over 200km and a lot of riding at the front would be needed to bring this back. Obviously the bonus seconds prospect incentivises Katusha but with 2 mountain stages over the weekend at only just above 150km, I would have thought spending 160km+ on the front wouldn't appeal to the teams of the big favourites. May not play out this way but for me the favourites are overpriced and the value lies with the break. Who exactly would win from a break then becomes the question as there's a 2km portion on the final climb that goes at insane gradients. The ones that appealed to me were: Adam Yates @ 120 Betfair - Has been looking for the break and seems to have conserved energy on stages where he fails to do. This looks the best chance for him over the coming weekend. Przemyslaw Niemiec @ 150 Betfair - Strong GC Rider who has been a bit absent this Vuelta. Now far enough behind that he should be allowed in the break and a good chance if he can get in it. Tanel Kangert @ 250 Betfair - Has the talent to win this from a break and is well done on GC. Not really a stage where Aru needs support so could be allowed to look for the break.

[antogz]

Re: Vuelta Espana 2014. Cheers CP tough to take, had it behind me before you mentioned it again:cry I think the GC boys are over-priced myself for the reasons you said above. In fairness to the bookies they have the big favourites priced in the correct order. If it comes to the GC boys I'd expect it to be between Purito and Bertie, I can see Valverde losing a bit of time and Froome, Aru losing a bit more. I'm going to go for outsiders myself. Chaves 1pt e/w 66/1 Boyles paying 4.He is that bit down on GC now that he will be allowed in a break and he will love these steep slopes. He has shown form so would be a major player today if in the break. Evans 1pt e/w 150/1 PP.He is down on GC and will be let in a break, he is very talented on his day and the last climb should suit him as well. Cardoso 0.5 pts e/w 150/1 boyles Garmin will try and get someone in the break, Talansky has done nothing so far, Cardoso has been riding very well and would have a chance in this finish. Arroyo 0.5pts e/w 100/1 BoyleS His team have missed out so far and he is far enough down on GC to left in a break. He should like this finish and I'd be shocked if he doesn't try and get inthe break.