danj2202 Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 I have been writing a preview for each team, and while it isnt finished yet I will release it division by division and then do a post recommending bets in the various markets, more to keep it easier to keep track of my records AFC NORTH CINCINNATI BENGALS Last Season: 11-5 Key Additions: Hue Jackson OC, Key Losses: Jay Gruden OC, Mike Zimmer DC, Michael Johnson, Kyle Cook, Anthony Collins, Andrew Hawkins Draft Picks: Darqueze Dennard(24), Jeremy Hill(55), Will Clarke(88), Russell Bodine(111), AJ McCarron(164), Marquis Flowers(212), James Wright(239), Lavelle Westbrooks(252) Summary: Overcoming the loss of both coordinators this offseason would seem a massive mountain for a team to climb however on all four occasions a team has lost both coordinators to head coaching gigs elsewhere since 1990, the team has gone on to repeat as division champions, the flip side is that the previous three teams to make the playoffs and fail to win a single game in three consecutive years all failed to make the post season in year four. The Bengals are arguably right there amongst the most talented and deep rosters in the NFL, it all revolves around the key position of quarterback and having a cheap one, QB1 in Cincinnati Andy Dalton is both underrated and frustrating in equal measure, having recently been given an extension he is no longer cheap. The Bengals can swallow the loss of Johnson on defense but will need Leon Hall and Geno Atkins to have fully recovered from serious injuries last season to remain at an elite level. Losing two coordinators, two key offensive linemen and your slot receiver and make zero serious effort to replace those players points to some potential issues this coming season and with unpredictable QB play the stat about the fourth season could get the Bengals too as they look pegged for some regression to me PITTSBURGH STEELERS Last Season: 8-8 Key Additions: Legarrette Blount, Lance Moore, Mike Mitchell Key Losses: Emmanuel Sanders Draft Picks: Ryan Shazier(15), Stephen Tuitt(46), Dri Archer(97), Martavis Bryant(118), Shaquille Richardson(157), Wesley Johnson(173), Jordan Zumwalt(192), Rob Blanchflower(230) Summary: The Steelers were unable to recover from a terrible 2-5 start last season and were unable to retool their roster in free agency due to the restraints of the salary cap and the chickens are coming home to roost in regards to their deferral of salary payments in previous contracts during their window leaving the draft as their main source of building their roster. Fortunately the Steelers look to have drafted well from both a needs and value perspective and signs for the upcoming season look reasonable as long as they remain healthy and their jurassic era secondary holds up. Certainly on offense with Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Leveon Bell and the new additions of Lance Moore and dynamic playmaker Dri Archer there is plenty to look forward to on that side oof the ball. There is a lack of depth so health is imperative for this Steelers team. It is hard to understand the direction of this franchise as I stated earlier the shape of the roster is bound by salary cap issues and doesnt look good enough to win a Lombardi Trophy this season (or next as the team ages) yet no moves have been made with a view to rebuilding either by renegotiating existing contracts or cutting overpaid underperforming veterans (I am looking at you Troy Polomalu though I wouldnt dream of saying it to your face) BALTIMORE RAVENS Last Season: 8-8 Key Additions: Gary Kubiak OC, Owen Daniels, Steve Smith, Jeremy Zuttah Key Losses: Arthur Jones, Jim Caldwell OC Draft Picks: CJ Mosley(17), Timmy Jernigan(48), Terrence Brooks(79), Crockett Gilmore(99), Brent Urban(134), Lorenzo Tallaferro(138), John Urschel(175), Keith Wenning(194), Michael Campanaro(218) Summary: The Ravens offensive line was an abomination last year, they have neglected to fix the right side of that line but have replaced the Matt Birk sized hole at center after his post Superbowl retirement with Zuttah from Tampa and while that us an upgrade the relationship between QB and C takes time to cultivate and may initially not help protecting Joe Flacco or the awful rushing attack all that much. The problem with this team is not and has not been the defense which looks like it will continue to be good, the question remains whether the offense improves under new OC Gary Kubiak hired here after his firing in Houston to improve this awful unit and while GM Ozzie Newsome gets it right more than he gets it wrong in Baltimore I am not convinced here about the prospects for these Ravens this year. CLEVELAND BROWNS Last Season: 4-12 Key Additions: Karlos Dansby, Donte Whitner, Andrew Hawkins, Miles Austin, Nate Burleson, Mike Pettine Head Coach, Kyle Shanahan OC Key Losses: Josh Gordon (suspension), TJ Ward, D'Dwell Jackson Draft Picks: Justin Gilbert(8), Johnny Manziel(22), Joel Bitonio(35), Christian Kirksey(71), Terrance West(94), Pierre Desir(127) Summary: Johnny Football!!! Get used to hearing it because the name is going to be mentioned any time you hear about Cleveland and the NFL this year. Manziel is likely to start this year for the most dysfunctional franchise in the NFL but while I feel for Brian Hoyer who didnt do much wrong last year before getting hurt, he is really only a backup at the NFL level, it is going to make the Browns must see, compelling viewing. It isnt likely to translate to on field success in the immediate future in my mind though. Josh Gordon is impossible to replace on offense and TJ Ward is really really good at safety though is replaced by Donte Whitner coming to his hometown. Justin Gilbert is a nice addition to a pretty good pass defense but offensively they are a concern as Mike Pettine is a defensive guy at Head Coach, who knows what Manziel is going to be, Ben Tate brings his light workload (partly due to time injured) from the Texans but I am unsure of him as a bell cow running back even in an offensive scheme that suits his style well and their best offensive playmaker is missing, while the offensive line looks decent, you cant win games if you dont score points, I believe the Browns are the worst team in this division but incredibly watchable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted August 10, 2014 Author Share Posted August 10, 2014 Re: danj2202 NFL Season Preview and antepost bet portfolio AFC WEST DENVER BRONCOS Last Season: 13-3 Key Additions: DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib, TJ Ward, Emmanuel Sanders Key Losses: Eric Decker, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Knowshon Moreno, Zane Beadles Draft Picks: Bradley Roby(31), Cody Latimer(56), Michael Schofield(95), Lamin Barrow(156), Matt Paradis(207), Corey Nelson(242) Summary: Generally one area on the field that remains consistent from year to year is offensive production, now assuming better health and a full season at Left Tackle from Ryan Clady, amongst the better LT options in the game and with all the Broncos losses on that side of the ball either having been adequately replaced or already having sufficient replacements in house it is reasonable to project that one of the top 10 NFL offenses of all time will continue in much the same pattern even if not quite scaling the same heights as last year. On defense they project to be stronger as well as they will hope to get a full year from Von Miller to strengthen the pass rush where they also have added DeMarcus Ware and have massively upgraded at safety with TJ Ward and the exchange of DRC out and Aqib Talib in is close in grade and in my opinion a slight downgrade but you could easily argue the other side, this team remains a legitimate contender and is amongst the cream in the AFC and if they can emerge from the difficult schedule matching them up with the NFC West and still obtain a high seed then its hard to see them not going back to back AFC championships…….if. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS Last Season: 9-7 Key Additions: Donald Brown, Kellen Clemens Key Losses: Ken Whisenhunt OC Draft Picks: Jason Verrett(25), Jeremiah Attaochu(50), Chris Watt(89), Ryan Carrethers(165), Marion Grice(201), Tevin Reese(240) Summary: Last season ended in an incredible run of events that were necessary for the Chargers to make the playoffs which resulted in them going into Cincinnati and defeating a more talented team in the Bengals. Not enough can be made of the effect Offensive Coordinator Ken Whisenhunt had on that unit last season and the rejuvenation of QB Philip Rivers, his moving on to Tennessee for a second head coaching gig is the X factor for this team this year, that said the insurance policy of Donald brown added to the backfield that includes Danny Woodhead and the brittle Ryan Mathews and the return of injured receivers such as Danario Alexander and Malcolm Floyd and expected emergence of Tight End Ladarius Green. A lot depends on how important you see Whisenhunt’s influence. With former QB coach Frank Reich taking over the impact could be minimised as much as possible. The defense wasn’t great last year, the secondary should be much improved with the addition of Brandon Flowers in a free agency pickup from the Chiefs who should be expected to bounce back in a more suitable defensive scheme and 1st round draft pick Jason Verrett but the front seven looks particularly worrisome Overall this team looks set to have at least a half decent year but the schedule is tough and that may prevent them obtaining a wild card playoff berth again this year, though with expected regression in Kansas they are the likeliest “other†playoff team in the division KANSAS CITY CHIEFS Last Season: 11-5 Key Additions: Vance Walker Key Losses: Branden Albert, Brandon Flowers, Tyson Jackson, Jon Asamoah, Geoff Schwartz Draft Picks: Dee Ford(23), Phillip Gaines(87), De'Anthony Thomas(124), Aaron Murray(163), Zach Fulton(193), Laurent Duvernay-Tardif(200) Summary: The Chiefs. The last time we saw them were trudging off the field in Indianapolis having blown a 28 point 3rd quarter lead to lose by a point, how they rebound from that remains to be seen as the schedule last season was as hard as melting butter and despite an 8-0 start they finished up on a 2-6 run where the only wins they managed were against Washington and Oakland two bad teams. This year the AFC West plays the AFC East and NFC West which is a vastly harder schedule, add in that until the team was effectively gunned down by the AK47 of injury during that playoff loss they were an exceptionally healthy team and that usually evens out over time, they have lost their best corner and lack depth in their pass rush and had by far the best swing in turnover differential last year which also usually evens out. All in all this is a classic regression candidate and could potentially drop below the .500 mark this year. OAKLAND RAIDERS Last Season: 4-12 Key Additions: Matt Schaub, Tarell Brown, Maurice Jones-Drew, Justin Tuck, Lamarr Woodley, James Jones, Carlos Rogers Key Losses: Jared Veldheer, Lamarr Houston, Tracy Porter, Rashad Jennings Draft Picks: Khalil Mack(5), Derek Carr(36), Gabe Jackson(81), Justin Ellis(107), Keith McGill(116), Travis Carrie(219), Shelby Harris(235), Johnathan Dowling(247) Summary: A team that has won just 53 games in 11 years was in need of a serious overhaul and that process has finally begun. They have added some veterans on both sides of the ball to lead a young roster, Tuck, Woodley, Jones and Rogers all have relatively recent experience of playing in the Superbowl, Khalil Mack and Derek Carr are two particularly interesting prospects from their draft class and Mack will be right there in the Defensive Rookie of the Year conversation, there is not a lot of immediate hope for this team and they look pegged for a last place finish again this year but there is hope a little way down the road and for Raiders fans that is something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted August 10, 2014 Author Share Posted August 10, 2014 Re: danj2202 NFL Season Preview and antepost bet portfolio AFC SOUTH INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Last Season: 11-5 Key Additions: Arthur Jones Key Losses: Donald Brown, Antoine Bethea Draft Picks: Jack Mewhort(59), Donte Moncrief(90), Johnathan Newsome(166), Andrew Jackson(203), John Ulrick(232) Summary: As the Falcons found out last year when you dont replenish your roster with young talent through the draftnsive Coordinator Ray Horton dthhan Newsome(166), Andrew Jackson(203), John Ulrick(232) Summary: As the Falcons found out last year when you dont replenish your roster with young talent through the draft it will catch up to you in the end. This Colts franchise has merrily traded away picks in the 1st and 2nd round within the last two years and behind the incredibly talented Andrew Luck the rest of this roster looks pretty thin, particularly with Defensive Player of the Year candidate from last season Robert Mathis, easily the best player on the Colts defense, due to miss the first four games of the season through suspension. This offensive line is right up there with the worst in the league and the concern here would be that the oft sacked Luck takes a bad hit and from there its likely the wheels would come off a Colts season, all due respect to Matt Hasselbeck. The Colts are no sure thing but could well emerge as the best of a bad bunch HOUSTON TEXANS Last Season: 2-14 Key Additions: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Chris Clemons Key Losses: Matt Schaub, Earl Mitchell Draft Picks: Jadeveon Clowney (1), Xavier Su'a-Filo(33), C.J.Fiedorowicz(65), Louis Nix(83), Tom Savage(135), Jeoffrey Pagan(177), Alfred Blue(181), Jay Prosch(211), Drew Howell(216), Andre Hal(216), Lonnie Ballentine(256) Summary: So the Texans come into the season with a 14 game losing streak to break, the good news is that they should be plenty better than last season, the pass rush could be up there with the best with Watt and Clowney and if they get a full season from the often injured or suspended former Defensive Rookie of the Year Brian Cushing then the front seven of the defense will potentially be special, the back end led by Johnathan Joseph is also pretty good and I would anticipate a good rebound from the Texans defense this year. On offense they have brought in Ryan Fitzpatrick who is at best ok as QB1 after going through options such as Case Keenum who wasn’t good enough but remains as a backup when Schaub fell out of favour last year, they have lost backup running back Ben Tate and Andre Johnson is not a happy camper so this side of the ball would appear to be lacking in depth and talent that is willing – understandably in Johnsons case as he is a career Texan coming to the end of his run and wants to win, to play through the rebuild, and this is where new Head Coach Bill O’Brien comes in, he learned under Bill Bellichick in New England and did an outstanding job at Penn State under difficult circumstances, to win this division will not take much this year as each team has its flaws in the weak South, Houston is not that far of a stretch but they are still in need of work to be an AFC contender TENNESSEE TITANS Last Season: 7-9 Key Additions: Wesley Woodyard, Shaun Phillips, Ken Whisenhunt Head Coach Key Losses: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Chris Johnson, Kenny Britt Draft Picks: Taylor Lewan(11), Bishop Sankey(54), DaQuan Jones(112), Marqueston Huff(122), Avery Williamson(151), Zach Mettenberger(178) Summary: Can Jake Locker stay healthy and play 16 games? Can Ken Whisenhunt extract the potential within Locker like he did with Philip Rivers in San Diego last season? Can new Defensive Coordinator Ray Horton do the same sort of job on this awful Titans unit as he has done in Cleveland and Arizona before here? I genuinely believe that this defensive unit is and will be awful this year, the passing game could be really good with Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter and the big if Jake Locker can stay healthy so while the Titans games could be very entertaining to watch, there is an awful lack of depth at QB behind an incredibly injury prone Jake Locker with Charlie Whitehurst listed at QB2 and he has looked nothing short of inept in his limited NFL starts, a run attack of Shonn Greene with rookie Bishop Sankey.........it isnt a massive stretch to see this being a tough season in Nashville JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS Last Season: 4-12 Key Additions: Zane Beadles, Toby Gerhart, Red Bryant, Chris Clemons Key Losses: Maurice Jones-Drew Draft Picks: Blake Bortles(3), Marqise Lee(39), Allen Robinson(61), Brandon Linder(93), Aaron Colvin(114), Telvin Smith(144), Chris Smith(159), Luke Bowanko(205), Storm Johnson(222) Summary: Gus Bradley is doing a great job rebuilding this franchise especially considering the starting point at the beginning of last year, certainly this defense is being rebuilt in the image of his last stop in Seattle and the offense is filled with low cost high upside lottery ticket type players that if they work out will put the Jags in a strong position, arguably they are a year or three away from contending but they are far from the worst team in the NFL and the AFC South looks a pretty weak division. Chad Henne looks set to start the season as QB1 with Bortles learning behind, when Henne took over for the hapless Blaine Gabbert last year the fortunes of the team improved vastly and removing pressure from the man you have chosen to lead your franchise into the future makes a lot of sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted August 10, 2014 Author Share Posted August 10, 2014 Re: danj2202 NFL Season Preview and antepost bet portfolio AFC EAST NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Last Season: 12-4 Key Additions: Darrelle Revis, Brandon Lafell Key Losses: Aqib Talib Draft Picks: Dominique Easley(29), Jimmy Garoppolo(62), Bryan Stork(105), james White(130), Cameron Fleming(140), Jon Halapio(179), Jemea Thomas(206), Jeremy Gallon(244) Summary: Health, that is the biggest factor in the Patriots upcoming season, they absolutely cannot afford an injury to anybody at linebacker where there is an almost criminal lack of depth, 16 games from Rob Gronkowski will help the offense in a massive way as Bradys numbers improve beyond belief when he is on the field rather than not, and obviously Tom Brady must stay healthy too as Garroppolo and Mallett would be disastrous for a team that is going to be in the playoffs barring catastrophe and is ready and waiting should Denver fall, but as the tom Brady era begins to wind down they again look unlikely to be good enough to build on the legacy of their 6th round future hall of fame quarterback NEW YORK JETS Last Season: 8-8 Key Additions: Michael Vick, Eric Decker, Chris Johnson Key Losses: Antonio Cromartie Draft Picks: Calvin Pryor(18), Jace Amaro(49), Dexter McDougle(80), Jalen Saunders(104), Shaq Evans(115), Dakota Dozier(137), Jeremiah George(154), Brandon Dixon(195), Quincy Enunwa(209), IK Enemkpali(210), Tajh Boyd(213), Trevor Reilly(233) Summary: The New York Jets were arguably the worst 8-8 team the NFL has ever seen last year, winning close games and losing horrendous blowouts. Do you put the over performance in regards to their points differential down to effective coaching or incredible luck?. It could be argued that in some areas the Jets results were down to luck, the team incredibly recovered 2 of 18 fumbles last year which will have negatively affected both point differential and winning record in a negative way so better luck in recovering fumbles and regression to the mean on touchdowns allowed by the defense where the Jets were 2nd in the NFL may actually mean the Jets were an unlucky team last year and can be expected to at least play to an 8-8 level again this season. No matter what you think of Eric Decker, he cannot be worse than anybody on a team that failed to get a receiver to 600 yards last season. Michael Vick will hopefully teach Geno Smith to harness his playmaking abilities into consistency and wins and Chris Johnson will continue to fail to live up to his 2000 yard season just with Gang Green instead of the Titans. Their biggest concern is the lack of genuine quality in the secondary which could in part be covered up by a strong pass rush. MIAMI DOLPHINS Last Season: 8-8 Key Additions: Earl Mitchell, Branden Albert, Knowshon Moreno Key Losses: Chris Clemons, Tyson Clabo, Bryant McKinnie, Richie Incognito, Johnathan Martin, John Jerry Draft Picks: Ja'wuan James(19), Jarvis Landry(63), Billy Turner(67), Walt Aikens(125), Arthur Lynch(155), Jordie Tripp(171), Matt Hazel(190), Terrence Fede(234) Summary: The list of names in the key losses, if you take Chris Clemons from the secondary, the rest if those names are linemen and after the bullying scandal from last season only Mike Pouncey (public supporter of college team mate and alleged double murderer Aaron Hernandez) at Center returns to the team from the offensive line which is likely to spell big trouble offensively for both the plethora of running backs in the Dolphins roster and QB1 Ryan Tannehill who was knocked down and/or sacked nearly 60 time last season alone. With Pouncey having hip surgery in June it is likely he will miss the early part of the season forcing the Dolphins to lineup with an entirely new offensive line, a group where continuity is of paramount importance. It would be no surprise to see this bumbling franchise stumble through yet another poor to mediocre season this year after mismanaging their salary cap and paying the price in depth. BUFFALO BILLS Last Season: 6-10 Key Additions: Bryce Brown, Brandon Spikes Key Losses:Jairus Byrd, Stevie Johnson, Mike Pettine DC Draft Picks: Sammy Watkins(4), Cyrus Kouandjio(44), Preston Brown(73), Ross Cockrell(109), Cyril Richardson(153), Randell Johnson(221), Seantrel Henderson(237) Summary: It is hard to see how this team can overcome the loss of Defensive Rookie of the year Kiko Alonso for the season and the best defender in their secondary Jairus Byrd along with Mike Pettine who has been hired as Head Coach by the Cleveland Browns. Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller will be joined in the back field by Bryce Brown and this team is likely going to need to run effectively considering the void at wide receiver left by the trade of Stevie Johnson to San Francisco leaving an incredibly young group of receivers led by this years first round draft pick Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods drafted in the second last year from USC and thurd round picks Marquise Goodwin and TJ Graham. This team does have an excellent defensive line but with Jim Schwartz hired as DC after his termination in Detroit it doesnt look likely that the personnel in this defense which was really good against the pass last year will be utilised to best effect if Schwartz continues with the low blitz frequencies and formations he preferred when with the Lions. The Bills were terrible at stopping the run last season and should be improved with the addition of Spikes but that only really looks to offset the loss of Alonso and they could well struggle again against the run and with potential struggles on offense the Bills will probably look at a repeat performance of last year, maybe an improvement to 7 wins but the 5-7 win range seems the likeliest range for Buffalo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted August 10, 2014 Author Share Posted August 10, 2014 Re: danj2202 NFL Season Preview and antepost bet portfolio NFC WEST SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Last Season: 13-3 Key Additions: Eric Winston, Wade Smith, Terrell Thomas, Kevin Williams Key Losses: Golden Tate, Chris Clemons, Red Bryant, Draft Picks: Paul Richardson(45), Justin Britt(64), Cassius Marsh(108), Kevin Norwood(123), Kevin Pierre-Louis(132), Jimmy Staten(172), Garrett Scott(199), Eric Pinkins(208), Kiero Small(227) Summary: When you win a Lombardi some people are going tonget paid, one of the strengths of this team has been locating low cost players to fill roles and the next man up mentality will likely see the Hawks alright as they have had a couple of incredible drafts that have given them a deep roster and a Superbowl window that is definitely open for another season as people start getting paid it will be harder to maintain the success but thats for next year, the champs look the class of their division and are right there in the NFC but are one of the teams you feel a whole lot better about if they can secure home field in the playoffs and then schedule may prevent that this year SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Last Season: 12-4 Key Additions: Stevie Johnson, Antoine Bethea Key Losses: Donte Whitner, Tarell Brown Draft Picks: Jimmie Ward(30), Carlos Hyde(57), Marcus Martin(70), Chris Borland(77), Brandon Thomas(100), Bruce Ellington(106), Dontae Johnson(129), Aaron Lynch(150), Keith Reaser(170), Kenneth Acker(180), Kaleb Ramsey(243), Trey Millard(245) Summary: The loss of Whitner, the injury to Navarro Bowman from the playoffs last season and a suspension for Aldon Smith that could be in the range of 6-8 games puts a lot of pressure on the defense, particularly the front seven in regards to Bowman and Whitner, there is injuries to a previous area of strength on offense at running back with Kendall Hunter down for the year and LaMichael James injured long term and Marcus Lattimore still yet to make the field after his horrific leg injury in college they are down to the ageless Frank Gore and rookie Carlos Hyde. They should be improved at wideout with a full year of Crabtree and the addition of Stevie Johnson. It was a strange offseason as there was a story of a potential trade of Head Coach Jim Harbaugh to Cleveland after a split in the front office and a total breakdown of relations between GM and Head Coach. A wild card berth looks their best case scenario as the champs dont look any weaker in Seattle and with a tough schedule and more losses than the Hawks I struggle to see them regaining the West. ARIZONA CARDINALS Last Season: 10-6 Key Additions: Jared Veldheer, Antonio Cromartie Key Losses: Daryl Washington (suspension), Karlos Dansby Draft Picks: Deonne Bucannon(27), Troy Niklas(52), Kareem Martin(84), John Brown(91), Logan Thomas(120), Ed Stinson(160), Walt Powell(196) Summary: The long term weakness in Arizona has been offensive line and Veldheer will help the team protect Carson Palmer as would the return of last years 1st round pick Jonathan Cooper, he is apparently still not healthy after last pre seasons injury, the loss of the two middle linebackers could be a crushing blow for a really good defense that will now rely on middle of the road journeyman replacements, the defense will decline and I personally am not sure how much I trust Carson Palmer at this stage, though with Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd at wideout and Andre Ellington at tail back there is potential on offense but the strength of the team was the run defense and that will be weaker, as will the pass rush. Patrick Peterson and a fully fit returning Tyrann Matthieu will go a long way to helping the defense's drop off not be too drastic as the secondary now looks the strength of the unit, this team was unlucky not to make the playoffs last year and with a tough schedule look outsiders for the postseason this year. ST LOUIS RAMS Last Season: 7-9 Key Additions: Kenny Britt, Alex Carrington, Shaun Hill, Davin Joseph Key Losses: Kellen Clemens Draft Picks: Greg Robinson(2), Aaron Donald(13), Lamarcus Joyner(41), Tre Mason(75), Maurice Alexander(110), E.J.Gaines(188), Garrett Gilbert(214), Mitchell Van Dyk(226), Christian Bryant(241), Michael Sam(249), Demetrius Rhaney(250) Summary: The Rams are a team that spark a lot of debate, they have a really good defensive front seven, but they have Sam Bradford an overrated former #1 pick and the terrible Brian Schottenheimer at OC who is a man living off his fathers name. They are far from a complete team as the secondary as a weakness is covered up by the defensive front which is further improved with the addition of Aaron Donald. Playmakers on offense are just not here, at wide receiver the likes of Tavon Austin and other no names such as Stedman Bailey will really need to elevate their level of play and its hard to see Zac Stacy repeating last years heroics as I would expect lots of 8 man fronts for him as you have to try and force Bradford and the wideouts to beat you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted August 10, 2014 Author Share Posted August 10, 2014 Re: danj2202 NFL Season Preview and antepost bet portfolio NFC EAST PHILADELPHIA EAGLES Last Season: 10-6 Key Additions: Darren Sproles Key Losses: Desean Jackson, Bryce Brown, Michael Vick Draft Picks: Marcus Smith(26), Jordan Matthews(42), Josh Huff (86), Jaylen Watkins(101), Taylor Hart(141), Ed Reynolds(162), Beau Allen(224) Summary: Last season went about as well for the Eagles as could possibly have been hoped, Chip Kelly went back on his word and left Oregon and brought his high octane offense to the NFL. Nick Foles got inserted as QB1 after the inevitable injury to Michael Vick and ran with his opportunity, Lesean McCoy arguably the best all purpose back in the NFL had a huge year and the Eagles won the division. The worries for me here are that firstly the schedule last year was not difficult and that changes this year. I am also not sure Foles can possibly continue that level of play and the inevitability of the injury to Vick applies here as well as the offensive line is inconsistent (and that’s being polite), that leaves us with the possibility of Mark Sanchez starting games at QB for this years Eagles. Statistically through the years, teams that make massive improvements like the Chiefs and Eagles last year (Eagles went 4-12 before last seasons 10-6 performance) usually regress by 2-3 wins and with the NFC West on the slate that wouldn’t be a shock for a team that struggled with line play on both sides of the ball. I don’t expect the Eagles to repeat as division champs as they will surely turn the ball over more and suffer more injuries as is the natural regression in the League in comparison to last year, but they aren’t the worst team in a division that remains something of a conundrum from year to year WASHINGTON REDSKINS Last Season: 3-13 Key Additions: Desean Jackson, Jason Hatcher, Tracy Porter, Jay Gruden (Head Coach) Key Losses: JD Walton, Adam Carriker Draft Picks: Trent Murphy(47), Morgan Moses(66), Spencer Long(78), Bashaud Breeland(102), Ryan Grant(142), Lache Seastrunk(186), Ted Bolser(217), Zach Hocker(228) Summary: In a division of dominant fantasy football owners, its hard to decide who is the bigger liability, Jerry Jones in Dallas or Dan Snyder in Washington, at least Jerry played the game and the team has won Superbowls under his ownership. He has chased the Shanahans out of town and cultivated his inappropriate relationship with his starting quarterback, all the while failing to realise that year after year he has been a hindrance to his franchise that fell off dramatically last season and made the RG3 trade look a complete laughing stock. The team has added very little to a defensive unit that couldn’t stop anybody last year, they have a good pass rush with two outside linebackers that excel but the secondary is terrible and the middle of the defensive line and the inside linebackers are horrible and it looks to me like you will be able to run all day on the skins this year. Excluding the division title two seasons ago, the team has resided between 3-6 wins, it is hard to envisage even with a fully healthy RG3 that they can climb above 6 wins with their schedule, they could finish in the cellar again but that will depend on what unfolds with the other fantasy football team in the division. In their favour, I am a believer in Jay Gruden as a Head Coach, I loved what he achieved with somewhat limited options in Cincinnati as OC the last few seasons. NEW YORK GIANTS Last Season: 7-9 Key Additions: Charles Brown, Rashad Jennings, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Quintin Demps, Walter Thurmond, Stevie Brown Key Losses: Justin Tuck Draft Picks: Odell Beckham(12), Weston Richburg(43), Jay Bromley(74), Andre Williams(113), Nat Berhe(152), Devon Kennard(174), Bennett Jackson(187) Summary: Well, after an awful start to the season there was something of a recovery for the Giants, and Eli cant possibly be that bad again……….right?. Well, the Giants got killed when they came up against good teams last season and handed out beatings to the poor teams they played, so arguably they were smack bang in the middle of the NFL road. The bad news is that with the NFC west on the slate this year there are plenty of decent teams on the schedule for the Giants. Offensively the Giants cannot possibly be as injured on the offensive line as they were last season and this should enable Eli to have more time to pick out options in the passing game – he wont throw 27 picks again this season because 2 rings or no rings he will be benched long before that number is allowed to be reached, and more time should help that number come down too. Also a change in Offensive Coordinator will also theoretically reduce the turnovers as Ben McAdoo is far more conservative and will likely call a lot less deep passes or high risk plays. Defensively with improved health and the additions of DRC, Thurmond, Demps and Brown to an already underrated unit, this could be an exceptional defense and will be the driving force behind whatever the Giants achieve this year, it will only require a more consistent performance from the offense and the sky could be the limit for Big Blue this year. DALLAS COWBOYS Last Season: 8-8 Key Additions: Henry Melton Key Losses: Demarcus Ware, Kyle Orton, Jason Hatcher Draft Picks: Zack Martin(16), Demarcus Lawrence(34), Anthony Hitchens(119), Devin Street(146), Ben Gardner(231), Will Smith(238), Ahmad Dixon(248), Ken Bishop(251), Terrance Mitchell(254) Summary: Last season in week 17 the Cowboys played a division rival in a one game shootout for the NFC East. For the third year in a row they lost meaning they have presented the division to each of their division rivals while finishing 8-8 themselves for three years in a row. A winning percentage of .500 in three consecutive seasons has been done only twice prior to Dallas achieving the "feat" and the signs are ominous this year for "Americas Team" as Washington went 2-8-1 and the Packers 4-12 following their third .500 season. It is not difficult to project such a season for the Cowboys this year. Best defensive player Sean Lee is already out for the season and Demarcus Ware has skipped town for a shot at a ring in Denver. On offense Tony Romo QB1 returns from offseason surgery and is developing quite the injury history, following the departure of backup QB Kyle Orton the Cowboys will be forced to turn to Brandon Weeden in the event of something happening to Romo and that is worst case scenario. If Romo stays healthy the Cowboys will be involved in a lot of shoot outs, if Romo gets hurt they will be involved in a lot of blowouts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted August 10, 2014 Author Share Posted August 10, 2014 Re: danj2202 NFL Season Preview and antepost bet portfolio NFC SOUTH NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Last Season: 11-5 Key Additions: Jairus Byrd Key Losses: Darren Sproles, Charles Brown, Lance Moore Draft Picks: Brandin Cooks(20), Stanley Jean-Baptiste(58), Khairi Fortt(126), Vinnie Sunseri(167), Ronald Powell(169), Tavon Rooks(202) Summary: The Saints are in win now mode, they are putting their salary obligations off to a few years down the road when this franchise will become crippled by the salary cap, the signing of Byrd, easily the most underrated safety in the NFL was a master stroke as it addressed the secondary which was the Achilles heel of a defense led by a man I am no fan of in Rob Ryan but vastly exceeded my expectations last season. On offense they have lost the dynamic Sproles, but his role had been taken over by Pierre Thomas last season in terms of backfield receptions and the addition of rookie Brandin Cooks who looks a YAC guy along with their other weapons, the offense should continue to score plenty of points despite the loss of Lance Moore who was a consistent red zone target for the team, hopefully for the Saints Marques Colston will stay healthy and while the Saints have stood pat bar the Byrd move, with the destruction of the Panthers roster they are a clear favourite in this division. If the Saints can win enough games to secure home field they become the favourite to emerge from the NFC through the dome. Of course, the flip side of the coin, if Drew Brees gets hurt then the Saints are done and the line play on offense is a slight question mark. You should be seeing the Saints in the post season again this season though. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS Last Season: 4-12 Key Additions: Lovie Smith Head Coach, Josh McCown, Evan Dietrich-Smith, Michael Johnson, Anthony Collins, Brandon Myers, Alterraun Verner, Clinton McDonald, Mike Jenkins, Major Wright Key Losses: Greg Schiano Head Coach Draft Picks: Mike Evans(7), Austin Sefarian-Jenkins(38), Charles Sims(69), Kadeem Edwards(143), Kevin Pamphile(149), Robert Herron(185) Summary: The Bucs had to can Schiano and they duly obliged, he was a joke of a Coach and never endeared himself to players, fans or media during his tenure, that was the first positive step, the hiring of Lovie Smith who was consistently good in Chicago as Coach (after a 5 win first season) is exactly the sort of move they needed to make and the overhaul of the roster has begun. My issue with the Bucs is as follows, year after year and with multiple chances to get the hiring of the Offensive Coordinator position right in Chicago Lovie Smith never did nail it and ultimately that was his undoing, Josh McCown off the back of a very good run in Chicago when Cutler went down last year has parlayed that into a lucrative little deal over here in Tampa. Why is a man who was paid league minimum salary the last two years as a backup QB (the value set by the league as that’s the price of the offers he received) suddenly at age 35 become a viable starter, or was he a product of a gifted offensive mind in Marc Trestman and a great scheme for him. I am VERY sceptical that McCown can lead this team where they want to go and that Lovie Smith can get the best out of him and THAT is why I am lower on Tampa Bay than most this year, the weapons are there, running back remains a question and the defensive moves all look very solid, but it is and remains a quarterback driven league and a 35 year old career backup off of a great 7 game stretch surely cannot be the right answer. CAROLINA PANTHERS Last Season: 12-4 Key Additions: Jerricho Cotchery, Jason Avant, Tiquan Underwood, Thomas Decoud Key Losses: Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell Draft Picks: Kelvin Benjamin(28), Kony Ealy(60), Trai Turner(92), Tre Boston(128), Bene Benwikere(148), Tyler Gaffney(204) Summary: A massive roster overhaul has taken place in Carolina and only Greg Olsen remains among receivers who caught a pass on offense last year, though frankly thats an aging Steve Smith and a whole lot of nothing (though the replacements hardly set the pulse racing either) and 80% of the offensive line have moved on including Left Tackle Jordan Gross, one of the better LT options in the game, all of which will test the elusivity of Cam Newton to an extreme level. On defense reigning NFL defensive player of the year Luke Kuechly returns but the suspension of Greg Hardy looming on the horizon will hurt and replacing 80% of the team leaders in snaps among the secondary will also take an adjustment. Though the losses and replacements at the receiving positions and in the secondary appear to be almost like for like it is definitely on the offensive line where little money or draft picks have been used to find adequate replacements that the Panthers will probably suffer the most and will prevent them scaling last seasons heights. ATLANTA FALCONS Last Season: 4-12 Key Additions: Tyson Jackson, Paul Soliai Key Losses: Thomas Decoud Draft Picks: Jake Matthews(6), Ra'Shede Hageman(37), Dezman Southward(68), Devonta Freeman(103), Prince Shembo(139), Ricardo Allen(147), Marauis Spruill(168), Yawin Smallwood(253), Tyler Starr(255) Summary: The loss of Sean Wetherspoon at linebacker for this defense is a crushing blow, however the issues for this team last season were on the other side of the ball. After sustained success the Falcons suffered injuries and paid the price for the lack of depth on the roster after they traded away draft picks to the Browns to move up for Julio Jones, free agent addition running back Steven Jackson, Roddy White and Harry Douglas in addition to the afore mentioned Jones and Left Tackle Sam Baker all missed time and combined with a very difficult schedule there was little the Falcons could do as the wheels came off. It is incredibly unlikely that injury will strike this team down like that again in spite of the loss of “Spoon†and the schedule is somewhat easier. However, a defense that was amongst the worst I have ever seen at tackling last year continues to age and desperately needs an infusion of young talent, the free agent additions of Soliai and Jackson will help the line but the pass rush that was suspect since John Abraham left town for the Cardinals is only handicapped further by the Wetherspoon injury and the aging secondary has only Desmond Trufant and William “Highlight Reel†Moore as a source of encouragement. The Falcons will score more points and win more games this year, anything more than that such as a playoff spot seems a little too optimistic to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted August 10, 2014 Author Share Posted August 10, 2014 Re: danj2202 NFL Season Preview and antepost bet portfolio NFC NORTH GREEN BAY PACKERS Last Season: 8-7-1 Key Additions: Julius Peppers Key Losses: Evan Dietrich-Smith Draft Picks: Ha Ha Clinton-Dix(21), Davante Adams(53), Khyri Thornton(85), Richard Rodgers(98), Carl Bradford(121), Corey Linsley(161), Jared Abbrederis(176), Demetri Goodson(197), Jeff Janis(236) Summary: The worst case scenario was realised for the Packers last year, Seneca Wallace, Scott Tolzien and Matt Flynn and started as many games as Aaron Rodgers, and still they won the division, arguably because of Flynn who won two games when he was brought in and returns as QB2 this year. The roster bar Center where I am not sure they have replaced the departed Dietrich-Smith actually looks to have pretty good depth and talent across the board. At the end of the day this division looks the Packers to lose as they are unlikely to lose as much talent to injury as they did last year and they still won their division, their window is closing though as both the Bears and Vikings appear to be making huge strides in the chase for the NFC North crown, but for now with Bulaga returning to solidify the line and Rodgers, Nelson, Lacy and Cobb all healthy on the offensive side, and the defense led by Clay Matthews, with health these Packers look yet another team in the NFC that is legit. CHICAGO BEARS Last Season: 8-8 Key Additions: Jared Allen, Lamarr Houston, Willie Young Key Losses: Henry Melton, Josh McCown Draft Picks: Kyle Fuller(14), Ego Ferguson(51), Will Sutton(82), Ka'Deem Carey(117), Brock Vereen(131), David Fales(183), Pat O'Donnell(191), Charles Leno(246) Summary: Henry Melton, D.J.Williams and finally Lance Briggs, when the third name on that list went down after the Bears had jettisoned Brian Urlacher the heart was ripped out of this defense, they had backups and rookies at the centre of the defensive line and the linebackers and they couldnt stop anybody running the football, add in the appalling performance of the overpaid and finished Julius Peppers (watch him elevate his level of play in the two Packers games after the Bears rightfully cut him) and the complete lack of a pass rush caused the only remaining strength at corner on the defense to be exposed and that whole side of the ball was a disaster, with healthy returns, the free agent signings and the depth at tackle in the draft it will not be easy to run on Chicago and in a year or two this defense could be back to previous levels. On the offensive side of the ball it js hard to find fault as they were 2nd in the league in points scored in spite of losing QB1 Jay Cutler for multiple games and using perennial backup Josh McCown. Alshon jeffrey, Brandon Marshall, Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett are a group of weapons for Cutler behind a much improved offensive line that gave up far fewer sacks last season after a virtually complete overhaul than the patchwork jobs/complete neglect of previous regimes under Lovie Smith and its an exciting era of offense in Chicago, they look like easy meat still for teams like the Seahawks and 49ers but in one or two years if the defensive draftsof the last two years pan out this team will be the real deal. MINNESOTA VIKINGS Last Season: 5-10-1 Key Additions: Mike Zimmer Head Coach, Norv Turner OC Key Losses: Jared Allen, Toby Gerhart, Kevin Williams Draft Picks: Anthony Barr(9), Teddy Bridgewater(32), Scott Crichton(72), Jerick McKinnon(96), David Yankey(145), Antone Exum(182), Kendall James(184), Shamar Stephen(220), Brandon Watts(223), Jabari Price(225) Summary: I love this head coaching hire, Mike Zimmer should have got the top job years ago and I wish him every success in this job, and with the drafting of Bridgewater the hire of Norv Turner looks shrewd as he has the reputation of a man who knows how to develop and get the best out of a quarterback, the presence of Adrian Peterson at running back and short dump off targets such as Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Rudolph “The Red Zone Reindeer†make this an incredibly good situation for a young QB and personally I would start Teddy and use Cassel as backup and I think the Vikings will too. With 5 first round picks the last two years there is an infrastructure in place on the Vikings defense that led with an exceptional defensive mind in Zimmer lead me to believe that this team could well be vastly improved this season on both sides of the ball DETROIT LIONS Last Season: 7-9 Key Additions: Golden Tate Key Losses: Jim Schwartz Head Coach Draft Picks: Eric Ebron(10), Kyle Van Noy(40), Travis Swanson(76), Nevin Lawson(133), Larry Webster(136), Caraun Reid(158), T.J.Jones(189), Nate Freese(229) Summary: The Jim Schwartz era has finally ended, the Lions finally believe they have found the wide receiver to ably complement all-world receiver Calvin Johnson in Golden Tate fresh off his championship with the Seahawks, this is the year!!! I have a few problems with this, the team lacks discipline, now maybe this is because the team was formed in the image of their former coach who has been replaced by Jim Caldwell. Caldwell lost a superbowl as a head coach in Indianapolis, however I credit most of his resume as the work of Peyton Manning who when lost for the season Caldwells Colts won 2 games, Caldwell has the demeanour of a corpse on the sideline and I cannot see in any way how he can be an inspiration to a team but he gets a lot of credit as a disciplinarian and a QB guy and Matt Stafford who is arguably the most overrated QB in the NFL surely needs some work on his mechanics and game management – I just don’t think Caldwell is that guy and hate the hire. I also believe the lack of discipline comes from the fact that players such as Suh and Fairley are idiots (a statement I would deny face to face) and not because their coach made them that way, I don’t think this Lions team that had the division at its mercy last season can help but implode year after year, they needed one win from their last 3 games last year to wrap the division up and couldn’t get the job done, the team doesn’t know how to finish games. I will be less surprised by Detroit winning 4 games than I would be if the won 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted August 10, 2014 Author Share Posted August 10, 2014 Re: danj2202 NFL Season Preview and antepost bet portfolio Offensive Rookie Of The Year 1 pts Teddy Bridgewater 19.00 888sport 1 pts Carlos Hyde 34.00 Unibet This is a market where historically you want to play either QB or RB to win the award so it makes most sense to take the QB who is best positioned for success in year 1 and that is Teddy Bridgewater of the Minnesota Vikings. He has Norv Turner as his OC, while Norv is a known quantity and a huge failure as a Head Coach, he is widely regarded as an excellent OC and a great developer of QB's, Bridgewater has plenty of sure handed weapons and in Cordarrelle Patterson a player who could become one of the most dynamic players in the league and the Vikes will utilise all their weapons to protect their young QB who will have the best runner in the game to keep opposing defenses honest Adrian Peterson alongside him in the huddle, everything looks in place including playing for a team with low expectations for Teddy to have the kind of year that wins this award. Had it not been for a poor performance at his pro day during the draft process, Bridgewater, widely considered the most "pro ready" signal caller in this draft class would have been drafted in the top 10 rather than 32. Amongst the running backs the most obvious path to playing time is Bishop Sankey in Tennessee, that said I am far from convinced that the distinctly average Shonn Greene is going to get out the way any time soon and make it an easy path and would be far more willing to swerve him at 15.00 and stick some of my hard earned on Carlos Hyde - widely considered the best RB in the draft prior to the event, who was taken by the San Francisco 49ers, the path to playing time is far more open for Hyde with the injuries to Lamichael James and Kendall Hunter and he is now the clear backup to RB1 Frank Gore on a team that attempted the least passes in the NFL last year - they are going to run the football. Frank Gore is 31 years old, and once a running back hits 30 in the NFL it is usually a matter of time until the wheels come off and he hits the wall, Gore has been an excellent runner in the league and durable too, should something happen to him though then Hyde would be the rightful favourite - he is as short as 13.00 with Paddy Power and its a punt I am willing to take on Other notables - Johnny Manziel best price 11.00, Johnny Football is the very essence of a high ceiling, low floor prospect at QB and I genuinely couldnt tell you where he will fall, if he starts and the Browns go 8-8 the hype train could win it for him, but the possibility that he isnt playing football next year is his floor and that genuinely wouldnt surprise me - I will be watching with everyone else but have no idea what will happen in Cleveland Of the Wide Receivers, I would swerve Sammy Watkins (10.00) of Buffalo and Mike Evans (9.00) of Tampa due to my concerns over the quarterback situation on those teams, Brandin Cooks of the Saints (13.00) looks a decent bet in terms of value but its easy for a young receiver to get lost amongst the pass catching options in New Orleans and as earlier stated a wide receiver has won the award just 3 times in the last 20 years - though Percy Harvin the last to achieve the feat is a player of similar mould to Cooks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted August 11, 2014 Author Share Posted August 11, 2014 Re: danj2202 NFL Season Preview and antepost bet portfolio Most Regular Season Passing Yards 8pts Drew Brees 3.60 Paddy Power Peyton Manning (3.75) won this market last year with an NFL single season record 5477 passing yards and returns as the slightest of favourites in the market this season with most of the bookmakers. Since the concept of the forward pass hit the NFL there have been 8 seasons where a QB has thrown for 5000 passing yards, only one quarterback has ever thrown for 5000+ yards in consecutive NFL seasons. New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees - who has thrown for over 5000 yards in each of the last three seasons and has 4 of the 8 5000 yard passing seasons that have ever occurred. Manning broke Brees' NFL record last season by 1 yard and it is far easier to project that Drew Brees, who has not lost any major weapons on offense and plays his home games in the controlled, comfortable climate of the Superdome, will continue his phenomenal streak and go over the 5000 yard barrier again this season and you would have to feel that this will be plenty enough for this to be a winning bet. Matthew Stafford (10.00) of the Lions threw for 5038 yards in 2011 but is not as consistent as the other market leaders and Detroit have added a running game in Reggie Bush and Joique Bell since that season where they really had no choice but to let Stafford grip it and rip it in a terribly unbalanced offense. The only other active QB with a 5000 yard season is New England Patriots QB Tom Brady (23.00) also in 2011 but that season is an outlier with his yards per attempt over a yard higher than any other season in his career and with no obvious spike in his completion percentage or attempted passes in subsequent years I am willing to write his chances of repeating that feat off. Aaron Rodgers (11.00) and Matt Ryan (19.00) both have the weapons to make their mark in this market but it would be somewhat surprising if they were to win, at bigger prices, if playing 16 games both Tony Romo (34.00) and especially Jay Cutler (36.00) would be worth a look and potentially an each way nibble, but these are two QBs who now have a history of injury and its hard to trust that they will play all 16 and in that instance it will be impossible to keep pace with the market leaders. As boring as it is I believe the price on Drew Brees to be outstanding value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted August 12, 2014 Author Share Posted August 12, 2014 Re: danj2202 NFL Season Preview and antepost bet portfolio Division Finishing Position 4 pts Dallas Cowboys to finish 4th in NFC East 3.00 Coral The defense on this team has lost players to free agency, suspension and injury and was not good in the first place, offensively they look like they can score points, but the likes of Demarco Murray and Tony Romo are certainly capable of missing time and particularly in Romo's case that could be disastrous for the Cowboys - I am far from inspired by the coaching staff in place and there is a terrible lack of depth here, overall I can see them regressing from their .500 level of play and Washington are the only team I feel is a real risk at finishing below the Cowboys. 4 pts Detroit Lions to finish 4th in NFC North 6.50 Coral This price looks a lot bigger to me than it should be, Detroit as a franchise are the only team that I dont believe has improved and while they have changed the coaching since last year, again I am not impressed with the hiring of Caldwell, the Lions have talent but have lacked discipline and are not in the same league as Chicago or Green Bay in my opinion, which means that the improving Vikings team who are underrated and shouldnt be 1.50 for 4th place are the only team to contend with, I wouldnt be shocked to see this bet cash, either through ill discipline and an innate way to lose games from winning positions or by a crucial injury to the wrong player. 2 pts Miami Dolphins to finish 4th in AFC East 4.50 Coral The Patriots are the cream of the East while every other team appears in a bunch, the Jets I dont expect to struggle this year as they look solid again on defense though the Dee Milliner injury is a slight concern, Buffalo and Miami look likeliest to come last in this division and with Buffalo being only 2.50 for last place and there being reasons for encouragement and the potential for a full season of EJ Manuel to be better than last year, I would rather take on Miami where I feel like the running game stinks, thee is a lack of talent at receiver and on the offensive line and we kind of know what Ryan Tannehill is now and this is the first time he will operate under a play caller that isnt Mike Sherman, too many question marks makes this value for me. 6 pts San Diego Chargers to finish 2nd in AFC West 2.62 Coral The Chargers look clearly the 2nd best team in this division, it is incomprehensible to imagine that they will finish in front of Denver, barring a Manning injury or behind Oakland, and if like I say in the preview, the Chiefs regress as is widely expected then this looks very likely to happen 5 pts Tennessee Titans to finish 4th in AFC South 4.00 Ladbrokes As with other teams, I feel it wont take much for Tennessee to have a terrible year, their defense is an atrocity and they have a quarterback who cannot stay healthy and a backup who was awful whenever we have seen him on a field (excellent at holding a clipboard), the Jaguars are the favourites for this, but they are improving, Houston cannot possibly be worse than last year and the Titans spent their first round pick on an area of reasonable strength with a team full of holes, its hard to see where they are stronger than last year and the lack of depth will likely haunt them, just wait for Locker to get hurt. 5pts Tampa Bay 4th in NFC South 2.50 Coral Another team with a coaching change, but there are serious issues on the offensive line, questions at running back and quarterback, and some good receiving options - dont see how they will be able to utilise them with the other issues though. The defensive rebuild is underway and encouraging but this looks a team a year away to me and so long as Carolina dont drop off this far and I dont think they will then it looks like the cellar for the Buccaneers 4pts Treble Oakland 4th in AFC West 1.50 Tennessee 4th in AFC South 4.00 Cleveland 4th AFC North 1.91 - Ladbrokes 2pts Treble Oakland 4th in AFC West 1.50 Detroit 4th in NFC North 6.50 Tampa 4th in NFC South 2.38 - Ladbrokes 1 pts acca Dallas 4th in NFC East 2.88 Detroit 4th in NFC North 6.50 Tennessee 4th in AFC South 4.00 Miami 4th in AFC East 4.00 - Ladbrokes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WWWYKI! Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 Re: danj2202 NFL Season Preview and antepost bet portfolio Why did you use Coral for these?I can't see any site that gives comparative odds across this market,kind of hard to judge value. Apologies,just seen the specials section.Surprised there aren't more bookies pricing it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted August 14, 2014 Author Share Posted August 14, 2014 Re: danj2202 NFL Season Preview and antepost bet portfolio It has only been ladbrokes that has priced finishing position up for many years. Corals dipping their toe in the market is a welcome addition Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted August 15, 2014 Author Share Posted August 15, 2014 Re: danj2202 NFL Season Preview and antepost bet portfolio 5 pts New York Giants to win NFC East 4.33 Skybet The Giants look to me to have a really under rated front 7 on defense which could be very very good, historically that is the strength of the team when the Giants have had good seasons. The hope that the change of OC from Kevin Gilbride to Ben McAdoo will introduce a scheme that will place less pressure on both Eli Manning and his offensive line and critically reduce the turnovers and drive crippling sacks. If the defense is as good as I think it could be then Eli only needs to have an average season for them to win a division that contains Dallas, who could be horrible, Washington who could improve but their defense still looks like an atrocity to me and the reigning division champions Philadelphia, historically teams that improve by the amount of wins that the Eagles did last season regress 2-3 wins the following season and it is unlikely that 7-8 wins will be enough for Philly to claim the crown. The main concern would be the rushing attack which looks a touch light on options. 10 pts Seattle Seahawks to win NFC West 2.10 Boylesports Seattle won the Superbowl last season, they were division champions and were priced at 2.20 to win the division season, despite hoisting the Lombardi, being virtually unbeatable at home and the main in division rival having issues both defensively with injuries to key linebackers and front office tensions, they have dropped only a shade in price. The Seahawaks are the best team in this division, their main weakness was the offensive line last year, but if they can avoid injuries to key pieces like Russell Okung then the unit should open the holes for Marshawn Lynch and Christine Michael and also ample protection for Russell Wilson to find Percy Harvin and the other receivers. The defense continues to be a really nasty unit that will beat people up, the schedule looks kinder for the Hawks with home games against the Broncos and Packers, while San Francisco must go to Denver and also on the road to the Saints. This looks overly generous as it is hard to see Arizona or St Louis bridging the gap and actually challenging for the division. 10 pts New Orleans Saints to win NFC South 2.25 bet365 The Saints in "win now" mode after juggling their salary cap obligations to enable them to sign Byrd from Buffalo and turn a weakness into a much stronger area, the rest of this division appears miles behind the Saints. Last seasons division champion Carolina have broken up their team on offense and are rebuilding, Atlanta will be improved but likely not enough to challenge the Saints as they lack depth due to draft picks having been traded and the potential for older players on the roster to get hurt - and Tony Gonzalez is irreplaceable. Tampa are a team on the up but have a massive question for me at QB and Lovie will turn them around just not in year 1 and they could be booked for a 3rd last place finish in a row. New Orleans can and will score points, the only way they can be derailed is an injury to Brees and touch wood that will not happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted August 20, 2014 Author Share Posted August 20, 2014 Re: danj2202 NFL Season Preview and antepost bet portfolio 10 pts San Francisco 49ers Under 10.5 wins 1.91 Coral 4 pts San Francisco 49ers to make the playoffs - NO 3.50 Stan James The 49ers have had a good run the last few years with three consecutive NFC championship games, one of which resulted in a Superbowl defeat to the Ravens. But there is something about this team this year that doesnt quite sit right with me, there is rumours of discontent amongst the players, there are definite issues between Coach Harbaugh and the front office, the defense that has been fearsome suddenly has holes due to injury and suspension, they play in a tough division with a nasty schedule and they move into a new stadium this season which often leads to subpar performances the first season in a new home. Add all of that together and 11 wins looks a big ask and last season in this division the Cardinals missed the playoffs with 10 wins, if I had a clear idea of where the wildcards would come from I would stake more on no playoffs to be honest. 9 pts Minnesota Vikings over 6 wins 1.83 Boylesports 2 pts Minnesota Vikings to make the playoffs - YES 7.50 william hill I am really high on the Vikings, this team has made 5 first round picks the last teo years, the defense that was already underrated will benefit from the new coach Mike Zimmer who spent years maximising the talent of defensive players for the Bengals before getting this job. Cordarrelle Patterson looks ready to break out at receiver and they have the best running back in football (unless you speak to Lesean McCoy), all of which will take pressure off of Cassel/Bridgewater at QB. This team got to 10 wins and a wildcard before last seasons collapse and with improved coaching and a decent last place schedule it isnt impossible to believe it can happen again this year. 20 pts New Orleans Saints over 10 wins 1.83 Paddy Power 20 pts New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs - YES 1.66 Paddy Power See my division winner preview on the Saints for main reasoning but the Saints beat this line last year, look a better team this year and have a better schedule while their division has weakened significantly. 15 pts New York Giants over 7.5 wins 1.63 bet365 6 pts New York Giants to make the playoffs - YES 3.25 Coral Again see my division winner preview for the Giants, I expect them to win the NFC East behind what is a really good defensive unit and they wont do that if they dont win 8 games!! 10 pts Dallas Cowboys under 7.5 wins 2.00 Paddy Power The Cowboys I think will drop below their 8-8 finishes of the last three years, their defensive unit is an atrocity and they will be involved in plenty of shootouts which is fine while Tony Romo is healthy but as a QB who does miss time and enters the year off of back surgery thats a big if. That said there are no kind words to be said about the defense now that Sean Lee is out for the year and 8 looks a struggle with Romo.....without him they would do well to win 3. 6 pts Jacksonville Jaguars over 5 wins 1.83 Paddy Power 1 pts Jacksonville Jaguars to make the playoffs - YES 10.00 Stan James The Jags probably wont make the playoffs, for a 3rd place schedule its actually quite cruel, but the division is weak and its definitely a team headed in the right direction. Gus Bradley continues to build a defense in the image of the Seahawks defense that he was the DC for prior to his hiring, including the addition of some players from Seattle. On offense it would appear rookie QB Blake Bortles is going to make it difficult for them to keep him on the bench for long, but Chad Henne won games when in for the departed Blaine Gabbert last year. The preseason action of theirs I have seen has impressed me, although granted its just the preseason but I think they can get to 6 wins in this division for sure and we get our cash back at 5 as insurance. 20 pts Tennessee Titans Under 7 wins 2.10 Betvictor I summed this team up in my preview of them to finish dead last, they have an awful defense bar McCourty who is underrated, the team has a great offensive line (except Michael Oher whose contract was made nonsense by the drafting of Taylor Lewan) and good options at receiver in Wright and Hunter, but the elephant in the room is Jake Locker who I dont think is a bad signal caller but is often hurt and they have no real option at backup quarterback. This team will shock me if they get to 7 and if Locker gets a bad injury they could well end up picking first in next years draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted August 27, 2014 Author Share Posted August 27, 2014 Re: danj2202 NFL Season Preview and antepost bet portfolio Defensive Rookie Of the Year 2 pts Anthony Barr 17.00 Ladbrokes 1 pts CJ Moseley 15.00 William Hill Historically for this award you need to be looking for a pass rusher, whether it be a defensive end or an outside linebacker. The top of the market is littered with first overall draft pick Houston Texans Jadeveon Clowney (5.00), Khalil Mack of the Oakland Raiders (8.00), Ryan Shazier of Pittsburgh (10.00), Aaron Donald of the Giants (15.00), CJ Moseley the Ravens first round pick (15.00) and Anthony Barr the Vikings linebacker. All of these players except for DT Aaron Donald fit the criteria of a pass rusher who can get at the QB and rack up the sacks, I tend to prefer to play a linebacker as they have increased chances of getting involved in all aspects of the defensive unit, that only really rules out Clowney, who I was keen to avoid due to his surgery in the offseason caused him to miss some of the OTA's. Khalil Mack is in the situation where he has been drafted by a really bad team and while it will be easy to shine in Oakland, his play is unlikely to be noticed as much due to the overall performance of the franchise. Shazier and Moseley are both in teams known for playing excellent defense and have had some excellent performances throughout the preseason, whilst Shazier has also gone missing in other games. Moseley played under Nick Saban at Alabama and Saban knows how to prepare defensive players to play this game, so long as the pressure of trying to fill the shoes of Ray Lewis doesnt get to him he has every chance to shine and I shall have a small stake bet on him. My preference is to play the linebacker out of UCLA Anthony Barr who is involved in an underrated defensive unit playing for a coach who has spent many seasons extracting the maximum level of performance from his players talent levels with the Bengals and I am sure that trend will continue in Minnesota making Barr a touch of value at a decent price Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted August 27, 2014 Author Share Posted August 27, 2014 Re: danj2202 NFL Season Preview and antepost bet portfolio Defensive Player of the Year 3 pts Robert Quinn 17.00 Ladbrokes 2 pts Richard Sherman 13.00 Ladbrokes 1 pts Darrelle Revis 21.00 Ladbrokes 1 pts Cameron Jordan 51.00 888sport 1 pts Geno Atkins 101.00 Ladbrokes Robert Quinn was a top 3 finisher for this award last year and as part of arguably the best front seven in the NFL playing for a team that will need to lean on its defense to win, he should have every opportunity to rack up the sack numbers, particularly in a division where all three teams have sneakily bad offensive lines and barring injury it will be hard to prevent him winning the award when considering that Luke Kuechly won the award last year and the Panthers will be significantly worse this season and Robert Mathis will miss the first four games suspended. Richard Sherman is the voice of the leagues best defensive unit in Seattle and while it would be unusual for a cornerback to win the award, his presence in the team and on the sports pages and programmes will keep him in the forefront of peoples minds. A similar statement can be made of Darrelle Revis who will make up part of a vastly improved secondary in New England, he is arguably the best player at his position in the league (though I am sure Sherman would disagree), if Revis is back to his best in a team that will use him correctly and will win plenty of games he is likely to be in the discussion. Cameron Jordan is the best pass rusher on a team that could well be the 1 seed in the NFC, he has never consistently performed to the level of his talent for a season, but on a team that plays from the front he will have his chances to tee off on opposing QBs and also lives in a division where the Bucs, Falcons and Panthers have serious defensive line questions to answer and if this is the year he plays to his talent level then 50's could look big. Finally Geno Atkins, there are a lot of if's with Geno but if he is recovered from his injury and the loss of Defensive Coordinator Mike Zimmer doesnt affect his level of play then 100/1 is a silly price about a player who has caused mayhem and racked up big sack numbers when on the field for the Bengals who have been a solid defensive unit. I am swerving market leader and reigning NFL Defensive Player Luke Kuechly as there is no value at the price and JJ Watt I am not sure is a particularly good fit for the Romeo Crennell defensive scheme and whilst he may have the superhuman ability to overcome this, I am not willing to take the chance at the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted August 28, 2014 Author Share Posted August 28, 2014 Re: danj2202 NFL Season Preview and antepost bet portfolio OUTRIGHT BETS AFC 8 pts New England Patriots to win the AFC Championship 4.50 Bet365 4 pts Denver Broncos to win AFC Championship 3.50 William Hill Feasibly there are only two teams that can win the AFC as they stand head and shoulders above the rest of their conference, these selections are far from original as they are the first two in the betting, but I fancy the Patriots to emerge from Conference play as the number one seed and with home field advantage and the history of bottle jobs by Peyton Manning in the postseason its a pretty confident selection. Denver are probably the best overall team in this conference top to bottom and have added depth from last years AFC Championship squad, however this year they have a slate of games that includes the NFC West with an awkward road trip to Seattle, and St Louis with their defense will be no pushover as the second of back to back road games also. The key however is that when the Patriots and the Broncos have their annual Brady v Manning matchup it will take place in Foxborough Massachusets in the back yard of the Brady Bunch (this will be a third consecutive home game for the Patriots as well) and as I feel with the Patriots having the easier schedule, a win at home against the Broncos should be enough to secure home field in the playoffs. The Pats themselves have massively upgraded the secondary which has been a glaring weakness for many seasons and have Gronkowski back healthy as well, it is coming close to the end of the Brady/Manning era but one of these looks good to get a shot at adding to their legacy this year. NFC 4 pts Seattle Seahawks to win NFC Championship 4.50 William Hill 3 pts New Orleans Saints to win NFC Championship 10.00 WIlliam Hill 2 pts Green Bay Packers to win NFC Championship 9.00 Boylesports 1 pts New York Giants to win NFC Championship 26.00 Stan James I am aware we are covering 25% of the conference here, but the best team are the reigning champion Seattle Seahawks who have lost last seasons WR1 Golden Tate, but regain Percy Harvin who missed last season in almost its entirety with injury, and some of their defensive front seven (mainly to the Jaguars), but this was easily the deepest unit in the league last year and the only glaring weakness is the offensive line and an injury to Russell Wilson wouldnt be great news for the Seahawks. However, you know with their home field that you can almost chalk them up with 8 wins before we start the season, and my only worry would be that in their division (which doesnt look as strong as last year when they won it) and with their non conference schedule involving the AFC West that they may struggle to obtain the first seed this year, That brings me nicely onto the next two selections. The Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints, both teams have excellent quarterbacks and easier schedules than the Seahawks (the Saints to my eye have an easier schedule due to their division that the Packers also), The Saints have upgraded in the secondary as well and they look the likeliest teams to capitalise on schedule and obtain the first seed in the conference and going either to Lambeau in the cold to face the Packers or the dome in New Orleans to face off against the Saints is no easy task. Finally my outside pick in conference is the Giants, I have said on this thread that they look massively underrated on defense and with improved efficiency on offense, which hopefully in the new scheme will continue to grow throughout the season, they could maybe get hot at the end of the year as they have done twice for Coach Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning and won two Superbowls. They have the ability to win on the road in the playoffs as a 4 seed or a wildcard. That said the likeliest scenario is still Seattle going into either New Orleans or Green Bay and I couldnt say for sure at this stage which team would win, lots will happen between now and then! Name The Finalists 2 pts New England Patriots/Seattle Seahawks 21.00 Ladbrokes 2 pts New England Patriots/New Orleans Saints 34.00 Ladbrokes 1 pts New England Patriots/Green Bay Packers 41.00 Ladbrokes 1 pts New England Patriots/New York Giants 126.00 BetVictor 1 pts Denver Broncos/New York Giants 101.00 BetVictor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted August 28, 2014 Author Share Posted August 28, 2014 Re: danj2202 NFL Season Preview and antepost bet portfolio forgot to add the outright bets to the above post Superbowl Winner 1 pts Seattle Seahawks to win Superbowl 7.00 William Hill 1 pts Denver Broncos to win Superbowl 7.50 Bet365 2 pts New England Patriots to win Superbowl 9.00 Skybet 1 pts Green Bay Packers to win Superbowl 13.00 Betfred 2 pts New Orleans Saints to win Superbowl 15.00 Coral 1 pts New York Giants to win Superbowl 51.00 Stan James reasoning in above post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted August 28, 2014 Author Share Posted August 28, 2014 Re: danj2202 NFL Season Preview and antepost bet portfolio Season Match Bets (total wins betting with the tie) 8 pts New York Giants to beat Carolina Panthers 2.30 Ladbrokes The Panthers are in rebuild mode and while they have a defensive front seven that will keep them in lots of games - once Greg Hardy returns from his suspension, there is an over reliance on Cam Newton to make the plays, his rib injury sustained on the eve of the season could hinder his abilities also, meanwhile the Giants also have a good defense and more playmakers on offense in Victor Cruz and Reuben Randle who could have a big year as a red zone target for them, they also do not have to contend with a team the calibre of the Saints in division and both the Cowboys and Redskins have potential to be horrible this year, I would be surprised if the Panthers get to 8-8 this year which is my minimum expectation of the Giants. 3 pts New England Patriots v Denver Broncos - Tie 5.00 Ladbrokes I have both these teams around the 13-3 mark for the year, they are head and shoulders above the rest of the conference and the key game will be against each other in New England, if Denver win that game I suspect the bet is sunk, the Patriots will likely lose in Green Bay and the Broncos in Seattle, and I think both will lose a divisional game on the road, I would give the Chargers a shot of winning at home to the Patriots, but then New England winning at home to Denver will tie them up and give the Pats the 1 seed. These teams are really close in ability and the tie I sense is the best value though New England 2.88 also tempted me. 15 pts San Diego Chargers to beat Kansas City Chiefs 2.25 Ladbrokes There is no doubt in my mind that the Chiefs will struggle this year, they had the easiest schedule in the league early doors and feasted on it, before slumping against better teams following their bye week, they have lost players on the offensive line and the defensive unit, and made no apparent efforts to replace those players while holding no obvious in house options and have a much harder schedule this year and 8-8 is an optimistic top end forecast for the Chiefs. The Chargers also made the playoffs last year and unlike the chiefs who stunningly collapsed and will likely carry those scars into the season, the Chargers went on the road and scored an upset win in the playoffs, the schedule is harder for San Diego but they look a stronger all around team (except at running back!) and I would expect them to build on last seasons efforts and they look clear second best in the AFC West. 8-8 would be the worst I expect them to finish and 9-7 is realistic. 8 pts Seattle Seahawks to beat San Francisco 49ers 2.10 Ladbrokes Much the same as in the division preview, Seattle are the better team and the 49ers have some off field issues and questions to answer, moving into a new stadium will likely cost a win or two this year and the fearsome noise and atmosphere at CenturyLink Field make Seattle consistently good for at least 7 wins at home. It would be a massive surprise to me if the 49ers won this match. 6 pts Minnesota Vikings to beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2.88 Ladbrokes I think that the Vikings could well be this seasons surprise team, and while Lovie Smith was consistently good with Chicago, he won only 5 games his first season as he implemented his style of defense on the team, Tampa has a lot of tools in place to be good on defense, but so do the Vikings and the best player on either team is Adrian Peterson who will take pressure off the QB situation which is a question mark as Cassell starts but Teddy Bridgewater waits in the wings for Minnesota, there is no such relief in Tampa with nothing other than question marks over Doug Martin, and also for me on Josh McCown for a team with offensive line issues. Tampa I think could be a year away and I am in love with Minnesota this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted August 28, 2014 Author Share Posted August 28, 2014 Re: danj2202 NFL Season Preview and antepost bet portfolio Coach Of The Year 1 pts Sean Payton 15.00 Ladbrokes 1 pts Bill O'Brien 21.00 Ladbrokes 1 pts Gus Bradley 34.00 Ladbrokes 2 pts Mike Zimmer 41.00 888sport In the main in this market we are looking for the coach of either a dominant team, or hopefully a surprise team that has made a massive "worst to first" style turnaround. Sean Payton in New Orleans could lead the Saints to a season of dominance with the schedule that they have, though I am not sure how the NFL would feel about him being anointed coach of the year after "Bountygate". The likeliest looking team to turnaround are the Texans who although picking first in the draft this year under performed after quitting on Gary Kubiak last year and play in arguably the NFL's weakest division, also housing Gus Bradley's Jaguars, if either of these teams pans out the playoffs are not out of the question and that will put them firmly in the conversation for this award. Over in the NFC North it looks a lot tougher but I have raved about the Vikings and their possibilities this season and if they can steal a wildcard and get to 9/10 wins then Zimmer who I rate highly will also be in contention. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted August 28, 2014 Author Share Posted August 28, 2014 Re: danj2202 NFL Season Preview and antepost bet portfolio Team To Concede Least Points 6 pts win Seattle Seahawks 4.00 Ladbrokes 1 pts e/w St Louis Rams 13.00 Stan James (1/4 1-4) 1 pts e/w Jacksonville Jaguars 201.00 Stan James (1/4 1-4) The Seahawks cashed in this market last year allowing just 231 points, ten ahead of Carolina and they finished miles clear of the rest, Seattle look to be fielding one of the better defensive units again this year albeit with depleted depth somewhat. St Louis has arguably the best front seven in the NFL (no argument from me) and playing at home on the Dome will be hard to score on, the schedule is a little unkind though. Finally the Jaguars are coached by Gus Bradley, architect of the Seahawks defense and he has brought in a few of his old players to Jacksonville and a team that plays in a division that may not be the highest scoring, with a half decent schedule look overpriced to me as they could improve massively this year - worth a punt at the price. Highest Scoring Team 4 pts win New Orleans Saints 7.00 Coral 2 pts each way Chicago Bears 26.00 Ladbrokes (1/4 1-3) The Saints will score lots of points and finished surprisingly low in 10th place for total points last season, though the NFC South played a particularly tough schedule of defenses with the NFC West last year and they only bump into the 49ers from that group this year, powered by QB Drew Brees with the likes of Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston and exciting rookie utility man Brandin Cooks they look certain to score a lot of points this year. Chicago finished second in this market last year, a distant second by Denver who are incredibly unlikely to repeat that level of performance this year (they also have the NFC West on their schedule), the Bears have weapons that make the rest of the league drool, a wide receiver threesome of Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey and Santonio Holmes is the envy of every team in the NFL, Matt Forte is a massive talent at running back both rushing and receiving out the backfield and TE Martellus Bennett is pretty good as well, if Cutler stays healthy there is every reason to expect a huge offensive output in Coach Trestmans second year - arguably if Cutler gets hurt it will still be ok as backup Josh McCown now in Tampa had amazing numbers in for the injured Cutler last season. I was tempted to play each way Dallas as well (34.00) but if Romo gets hurt which I am almost convinced will happen that will be down the tubes, their defense is terrible and they will have to win games 45-41 if they are to win at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted September 4, 2014 Author Share Posted September 4, 2014 Re: danj2202 NFL Season Preview and antepost bet portfolio Offensive Rookie Of The Year 1 pts Teddy Bridgewater 19.00 888sport 1 pts Carlos Hyde 34.00 Unibet This is a market where historically you want to play either QB or RB to win the award so it makes most sense to take the QB who is best positioned for success in year 1 and that is Teddy Bridgewater of the Minnesota Vikings. He has Norv Turner as his OC, while Norv is a known quantity and a huge failure as a Head Coach, he is widely regarded as an excellent OC and a great developer of QB's, Bridgewater has plenty of sure handed weapons and in Cordarrelle Patterson a player who could become one of the most dynamic players in the league and the Vikes will utilise all their weapons to protect their young QB who will have the best runner in the game to keep opposing defenses honest Adrian Peterson alongside him in the huddle, everything looks in place including playing for a team with low expectations for Teddy to have the kind of year that wins this award. Had it not been for a poor performance at his pro day during the draft process, Bridgewater, widely considered the most "pro ready" signal caller in this draft class would have been drafted in the top 10 rather than 32. Amongst the running backs the most obvious path to playing time is Bishop Sankey in Tennessee, that said I am far from convinced that the distinctly average Shonn Greene is going to get out the way any time soon and make it an easy path and would be far more willing to swerve him at 15.00 and stick some of my hard earned on Carlos Hyde - widely considered the best RB in the draft prior to the event, who was taken by the San Francisco 49ers, the path to playing time is far more open for Hyde with the injuries to Lamichael James and Kendall Hunter and he is now the clear backup to RB1 Frank Gore on a team that attempted the least passes in the NFL last year - they are going to run the football. Frank Gore is 31 years old, and once a running back hits 30 in the NFL it is usually a matter of time until the wheels come off and he hits the wall, Gore has been an excellent runner in the league and durable too, should something happen to him though then Hyde would be the rightful favourite - he is as short as 13.00 with Paddy Power and its a punt I am willing to take on Other notables - Johnny Manziel best price 11.00, Johnny Football is the very essence of a high ceiling, low floor prospect at QB and I genuinely couldnt tell you where he will fall, if he starts and the Browns go 8-8 the hype train could win it for him, but the possibility that he isnt playing football next year is his floor and that genuinely wouldnt surprise me - I will be watching with everyone else but have no idea what will happen in Cleveland Of the Wide Receivers, I would swerve Sammy Watkins (10.00) of Buffalo and Mike Evans (9.00) of Tampa due to my concerns over the quarterback situation on those teams, Brandin Cooks of the Saints (13.00) looks a decent bet in terms of value but its easy for a young receiver to get lost amongst the pass catching options in New Orleans and as earlier stated a wide receiver has won the award just 3 times in the last 20 years - though Percy Harvin the last to achieve the feat is a player of similar mould to Cooks I am going to add one to the portfolio here 1 pts Jeremy Hill 26.00 BetVictor The Bengals look like a team that will run the ball a lot more after the coordinator change from Jay Gruden to Hue Jackson and there seems to be a timeshare in operation between Gio Bernard and 2nd round pick Jeremy Hill from what I read after the Bengals cut Benjarvus Green-Ellis. This team has a strong enough offensive line to run the ball efficiently and the philosophy to do so giving Hill a shot at plenty of work and shohld something happen to Bernard he will be the primary back in the offense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted December 28, 2014 Author Share Posted December 28, 2014 Re: danj2202 NFL Season Preview and antepost bet portfolio Most Regular Season Passing Yards 8pts Drew Brees 3.60 Paddy Power:) DEAD HEAT 1-0 Division Finishing Position 4 pts Dallas Cowboys to finish 4th in NFC East 3.00 Coral:( 4 pts Detroit Lions to finish 4th in NFC North 6.50 Coral:( 2 pts Miami Dolphins to finish 4th in AFC East 4.50 Coral:( 6 pts San Diego Chargers to finish 2nd in AFC West 2.62 Coral:( 5 pts Tennessee Titans to finish 4th in AFC South 4.00 Ladbrokes:) 5pts Tampa Bay 4th in NFC South 2.50 Coral :) 4pts Treble Oakland 4th in AFC West 1.50 Tennessee 4th in AFC South 4.00 Cleveland 4th AFC North 1.91 - Ladbrokes :) 2pts Treble Oakland 4th in AFC West 1.50 Detroit 4th in NFC North 6.50 Tampa 4th in NFC South 2.38 - Ladbrokes:( 1 pts acca Dallas 4th in NFC East 2.88 Detroit 4th in NFC North 6.50 Tennessee 4th in AFC South 4.00 Miami 4th in AFC East 4.00 - Ladbrokes:( 3-6 33 staked 78.34 returned +45.34 5 pts New York Giants to win NFC East 4.33 Skybet:( 10 pts Seattle Seahawks to win NFC West 2.10 Boylesports:) 10 pts New Orleans Saints to win NFC South 2.25 bet365:( 1-2 25 staked 21 returned -4.00 10 pts San Francisco 49ers Under 10.5 wins 1.91 Coral:) 4 pts San Francisco 49ers to make the playoffs - NO 3.50 Stan James:) 9 pts Minnesota Vikings over 6 wins 1.83 Boylesports:) 2 pts Minnesota Vikings to make the playoffs - YES 7.50 william hill:( 20 pts New Orleans Saints over 10 wins 1.83 Paddy Power:( 20 pts New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs - YES 1.66 Paddy Power:( 15 pts New York Giants over 7.5 wins 1.63 bet365:( 6 pts New York Giants to make the playoffs - YES 3.25 Coral:( 10 pts Dallas Cowboys under 7.5 wins 2.00 Paddy Power:( 6 pts Jacksonville Jaguars over 5 wins 1.83 Paddy Power:( 1 pts Jacksonville Jaguars to make the playoffs - YES 10.00 Stan James:( 20 pts Tennessee Titans Under 7 wins 2.10 Betvictor:) 4-8 123 staked 86.10 returned -36.90 Season Match Bets (total wins betting with the tie) 8 pts New York Giants to beat Carolina Panthers 2.30 Ladbrokes:( 3 pts New England Patriots v Denver Broncos - Tie 5.00 Ladbrokes:) 15 pts San Diego Chargers to beat Kansas City Chiefs 2.25 Ladbrokes:( 8 pts Seattle Seahawks to beat San Francisco 49ers 2.10 Ladbrokes:) 6 pts Minnesota Vikings to beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2.88 Ladbrokes:) 3-2 40 staked 49.08 returns +9.08 and two from the other thread 2 pts Arian Foster to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year 20/1 Ladbrokes:( 0-1 -2 pts 10pts double Green Bay Packers to win NFC North 1.83 New Orleans Saints to win NFC South 2.75 - double pays 5.03 Ladbrokes :( LOST -10 pts Offensive Rookie Of The Year 1 pts Teddy Bridgewater 19.00 888sport:( 1 pts Carlos Hyde 34.00 Unibet:( 1 pts Jeremy Hill 26.00 BetVictor:( 0-3 -3 Coach Of The Year 1 pts Sean Payton 15.00 Ladbrokes:( 1 pts Bill O'Brien 21.00 Ladbrokes:( 1 pts Gus Bradley 34.00 Ladbrokes:( 2 pts Mike Zimmer 41.00 888sport:( will pre empt the decision on this, these have lost 0-4 5pts staked Team To Concede Least Points 6 pts win Seattle Seahawks 4.00 Ladbrokes:) 1 pts e/w St Louis Rams 13.00 Stan James (1/4 1-4):( 1 pts e/w Jacksonville Jaguars 201.00 Stan James (1/4 1-4):( Highest Scoring Team 4 pts win New Orleans Saints 7.00 Coral:( 2 pts each way Chicago Bears 26.00 Ladbrokes (1/4 1-3):( 1-4 18 staked 24 returned +6.00 Defensive Rookie Of the Year 2 pts Anthony Barr 17.00 Ladbrokes:( 1 pts CJ Moseley 15.00 William Hill:( 0-2 -3 Defensive Player of the Year 3 pts Robert Quinn 17.00 Ladbrokes:( 2 pts Richard Sherman 13.00 Ladbrokes:( 1 pts Darrelle Revis 21.00 Ladbrokes:( 1 pts Cameron Jordan 51.00 888sport:( 1 pts Geno Atkins 101.00 Ladbrokes:( this isnt announced yet but am sure JJ Watt has won so will come back and change should i get a pleasant surprise 0-5 8 pts staked OUTRIGHT BETS AFC 8 pts New England Patriots to win the AFC Championship 4.50 Bet365:) 4 pts Denver Broncos to win AFC Championship 3.50 William Hill:( NFC 4 pts Seattle Seahawks to win NFC Championship 4.50 William Hill:) 3 pts New Orleans Saints to win NFC Championship 10.00 WIlliam Hill:( 2 pts Green Bay Packers to win NFC Championship 9.00 Boylesports:( 1 pts New York Giants to win NFC Championship 26.00 Stan James:( Name The Finalists 2 pts New England Patriots/Seattle Seahawks 21.00 Ladbrokes:) 2 pts New England Patriots/New Orleans Saints 34.00 Ladbrokes:( 1 pts New England Patriots/Green Bay Packers 41.00 Ladbrokes:( 1 pts New England Patriots/New York Giants 126.00 BetVictor:( 1 pts Denver Broncos/New York Giants 101.00 BetVictor:( 3-8 staked 29 pts returns 96 pts profit +67 pts Superbowl Winner 1 pts Seattle Seahawks to win Superbowl 7.00 William Hill:( 1 pts Denver Broncos to win Superbowl 7.50 Bet365:( 2 pts New England Patriots to win Superbowl 9.00 Skybet:) 1 pts Green Bay Packers to win Superbowl 13.00 Betfred:( 2 pts New Orleans Saints to win Superbowl 15.00 Coral:( 1 pts New York Giants to win Superbowl 51.00 Stan James:( It is quite clear that I made glaring errors on the NFC East and also the New Orleans Saints, that said the AFC looks pretty good and while anything can happen in the NFL playoffs I think we are in a strong position from here TOTAL SO FAR 16-53 323 pts staked 386.98 pts returned 63.98 pts profit with superbowl outrights to be taken into account Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 Re: danj2202 NFL Season Preview and antepost bet portfolio ok, well, with most of the outrights in the books now, we are guaranteed the winner of the Superbowl and also a profitable season. Should Moseley or Barr cause the upset in the defensive rookie of the year and beat Aaron Donald then it will be an all round decent year. Have updated the obvious losing bets and the new winners and running totals in the post above Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 Re: danj2202 NFL Season Preview and antepost bet portfolio so, it appears I have done my usual of compiling a solid ante post portfolio but not doing so well betting week to week......more leassons to be learnt for next year but at least this thread was solid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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