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Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15


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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 It is expected a big fight between Marítimo and Belenenses because at stake is the sixth place that will lead to Europe next season likely. Guests are currently in that position, but Maritimo is only four points below them, so that they have the imperative to win here. In addition to the home advantage, Maritimo have two regulars back (Ruben and Gallo) from suspension, as well as good momentum after the long-awaited victory away with four scored goals. German defender Bauer is banned, Fernando and Fransergio are injured. Defender Brandao returns for away side, but there is no another one Palmeira due to injury. Also, their best player and top-scorer Rosa (5g) is out for this game. They are in a bad mood because they conceded a goal in 95 minute against the great Sporting in the last round, and I'm not convinced that they will cope well on the island against more motivated team. Maritimo @2.01 Pinnacle

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15

It is expected a big fight between Marítimo and Belenenses because at stake is the sixth place that will lead to Europe next season likely. Guests are currently in that position, but Maritimo is only four points below them, so that they have the imperative to win here. In addition to the home advantage, Maritimo have two regulars back (Ruben and Gallo) from suspension, as well as good momentum after the long-awaited victory away with four scored goals. German defender Bauer is banned, Fernando and Fransergio are injured. Defender Brandao returns for away side, but there is no another one Palmeira due to injury. Also, their best player and top-scorer Rosa (5g) is out for this game. They are in a bad mood because they conceded a goal in 95 minute against the great Sporting in the last round, and I'm not convinced that they will cope well on the island against more motivated team. Maritimo @2.01 Pinnacle
1:2 :@
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15

a small break from portuguese liga will do well :) -0.55.
Betting is a long term business, don't give up because a bad series comes to everyone. Better days are ahead of us, you know that. ;) What are your thoughts on tonight's game? Home team wants points for further move away from the danger zone, guests to move closer to the top. I don't know much about Boavista, but know that play at Estádio do Bessa with artificial pitch and that their coach is Petit (a long time player of Benfica). Actually, this is Dérbi da Invicta - both sides are from Porto, so I don't doubt that they will be extra motivated. On the other hand, Porto simply must win because Benfica already have 7 points advantage. But they played in Switzerland in mid-week and the next opponent is a great rival Sporting on Sunday, so I don't know how strong and serious will be their approach tonight (also, their best players are already in close-up for this summer transfers). Attacking midfielder Torres (6 goals) got injured against Basel, while there are three suspended players: defensive midfielder Casemiro (3 goals), right back Danilo (3 goals) and left back Sandro. Don't expect an easy job for the Dragons!
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 yeah, but sometimes a break is all that's needed. It is a golden rule for me. You should never force yourself into profit. If things aren't going right, go back, analyse what's wrong, adjust, think more. FC Porto having a lot of trouble atm. 60 min still 0-0. I took the Over 1.5 TG @ 2.62 at HT just for fun. Boavista sits deep and defends well, but I expect FC Porto to score. They have to, unless the pressure against them in the next match against Sporting Lisbon will be immense.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Have to say Porto have been very disappointing under Lopetegui. I thought they would be an exciting team to watch this year but they struggle to create chances and many of their signings have been disappointing. I think Sporting have a a good chance of getting something from the Dragao at the weekend but a Europa League tie just 3 days before the game is hardly ideal.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15

yeah' date=' but sometimes a break is all that's needed. It is a golden rule for me. You should never force yourself into profit. If things aren't going right, go back, analyse what's wrong, adjust, think more.[/quote'] Personally, I often try to cover too many games. In my case, it's the break that's important. And cutting down the number of games I'm trying to cover. (For this reason, I often do better on quiet weekdays than busy weekends.)
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 I just cover the leagues I most know. I do check on all important european leagues (especially BPL and La Liga), but I often concentrate the most on Portuguese Primeira Liga and J-League. Champions League is also a good source of money since, especially from 1/8s onwards. Gets really predictable sometime.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15

Personally' date=' I often try to cover too many games. In my case, it's the break that's important. And cutting down the number of games I'm trying to cover. (For this reason, I often do better on quiet weekdays than busy weekends.)[/quote']
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 It can certainly pay to specialise. But it's quite hard to restrict yourself 'only' to one area. I freely admit to trying to cover far too much - if you can really keep to just a chosen specialist area and nothing else, then congratulations! :) (Maybe confidence and time are a factor here as well - if you bet for a long time, perhaps you might find that you are particularly successful in one area - and then you might see for yourself that it will pay you to spend more time on that area and less on everything else?)

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 A bit off topic...but do any of you guys that know the portugal league think that Porto could catch Benfica in the race for the championship ??...I have them in a anti-post accumalator with 4 other teams that all look certain to win..A tidy sum it is too...But only if Porto win that is...I see Porto still have to go to Benfica and after visiting Lisbon last year the locals seem to think that Benfica always choke come the end of the season...Just look at their european record.Your thoughts please or shall i just rip the ticket up now lol

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 [TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 27 February 2015[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Vitoria de Guimaraes v Marítimo (20:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.85[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 28 February 2015[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Gil Vicente v Boavista FC (16:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.45[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Nacional da Madeira v Vitória de Setúbal (16:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.65[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6.4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Benfica v Estoril-Praia (17:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]17[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Rio Ave v Sporting de Braga (20:15 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.15[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 1 March 2015[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Académica de Coimbra v Futebol Clube de Arouca (16:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Penafiel v Moreirense FC (16:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.12[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FC Porto v Sporting CP (19:15 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.66[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.95[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Monday 2 March 2015[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Belenenses v Paços de Ferreira (20:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15

A bit off topic...but do any of you guys that know the portugal league think that Porto could catch Benfica in the race for the championship ??...I have them in a anti-post accumalator with 4 other teams that all look certain to win..A tidy sum it is too...But only if Porto win that is...I see Porto still have to go to Benfica and after visiting Lisbon last year the locals seem to think that Benfica always choke come the end of the season...Just look at their european record.Your thoughts please or shall i just rip the ticket up now lol
With 12 games to go, if you rule out Braga, it's a 3 horse race between Benfica, Porto and Sporting. All three sides have impressed me this season, but I think Benfica stand out and look a class above the other two. It helps that Benfica are out of Europe (they finished bottom of their group in the Champions League). Porto are still in the Champions League and Sporting are in the Europa League. Best odds are currently: Benfica - 1.44 Porto - 3.0 Sporting - 101 (with Bet365) I think Benfica's and Porto's odds are about right. Sporting are too long at 101, although it is a long-shot as they would need to overtake Benfica and Porto. Porto are at home to Sporting this Sunday. Benfica are at home to Porto on 25th April, a month before the end of the season. Porto certainly have a chance, and if they win at Benfica, it could really happen for them. (P.S. I am not an expert, just giving my view from what I have seen recently :))
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 I just saw most of Porto v Sporting. After a bright opening, Sporting faded. Porto slowly took over and for most of the game it was like men against boys. Porto looked bigger, stronger, faster and more skilful - they won 3-0. Benfica also looked very impressive last night at home to Estoril (they won 6-0). I think this pretty much rules Sporting out, and it's now a 2-horse race for the title between Benfica and Porto. A lot might depend on the game between those two on 25th April.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Belenenses – Pacos de Ferreira – Win for Belenenses at 2.55 @ Marathonbet This is a game for the 23th day of Primeira Liga between Belenenses and Pacos de Ferreira. Hosts stand 6th with 34 points, meanwhile visitors stand 8th with 30 points. Belenenses wants to win in order to close the gap from the 5th Vitoria Guimaraes and increase their chances to be placed at the first five spots. Hosts are coming from an undefeated strike of three games, two of them won. Pacos de Ferreira is coming from two straight games without a win. They won only once at the last four games, they are one of the weakest away teams. They lost at the last 4/5 games on the road, scored only two goals. I see a win for Belenenses.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Estoril Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.00 (bet365) for a 0.75 stake Estoril - Praia are on a 5-loss streak, but things could be on for a change. The main reason is that José Couceiro has resigned as Estoril-Praia manager. The team was fully lacking confidence and players seemed not to be with the manager. The new managerial option is curious: two managers instead of one. Hugo Leal and Fabiano will work together as Estoril-Praia managers. Estoril-Praia has a very good squad. The have good players in every position, and their squad is good enough to finish in the upper half of the league. I'm expecting that to happen until the end of the season. They weren't playing well but I do think it was because they were lacking confidence. Usually these managerial changes have a good short-term effect in players, and that is quite the case of the Portuguese Primeira Liga. I'm expecting the players to be with their confidence back tomorrow. Gil Vicente is in a good moment and has climbed up in the standings after staying at the bottom of the table for 17 matchdays. New players helped in that, but the team will still fight for avoiding relegation until the end. Plus, their manager is not one of my kind, at least. José Mota actually knows how to make his team score a goal or two, but the organization of the team is atrocious. Odds for Estoril to win are not that good but I like the Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.00. Estoril-Praia players will be motivated and have a strong attack with Kleber and Leo Bonatini, well supported by dynamos Tozé and Sebá, and even though Markus Berger and Cadu helped Gil Vicente to stabilize their defensive line, the defensive organization of Gil Vicente is still not convincing, especially away. Plus, Estoril are usually strong on the set pieces with Emidio Rafael and Toze for direct free-kick and corner/penalty taker and Ruben Fernandes and Yohan Tavares are very strong in the air.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Benfica Over 2.5 Team Goals @ 2.4 (Unibet) for a 0.5 stake Benfica will be facing Arouca away. Arouca has interesting ideas upfront and some good players here and there, but they are overall mediocre due to their manager Pedro Emanuel. He loves to do some destructive tactics, builds his team around the opponent and discards any identity his teams should have and promotes time wasting, and I expect that tomorrow as well. Although they usually play in 4-3-3 and they won't change that formation on paper and while attacking, Pedro Emanuel might employ another defensive midfielder and opt for a 4-2-3-1 or 5-2-2-1 while defending. However, they have 4 important players out: Rui Sampaio (MF), Pintassilgo (MF) and Miguel Oliveira (DF) are suspended, and Nildo Petrolina (MF/ATK) is out as well due to injury. Bruno Amaro (MF) is also doubtful but should start in the bench. On the other hand, Benfica has his best team back. Ruben Amorim and Julio Cesar are fully fit and should play. Gaitan already fully fit since last week as well. Benfica demolished Estoril 6-0 in one of the best exhibitions of the season, even though Estoril were on shambles then, before the manager's resignment. Benfica is 1 point ahead of FC Porto and could build a 4-point gap again if they win. They are currently playing great football and are outstanding in attack. No one has more attacking potential than Benfica in Portugal, at the moment. The best Arouca can do is score early and do anti-football tactics to avoid the unavoidable as with the important absences and the mediocre ideas of the team as a whole can't be ignored. In my opinion, Benfica should breeze through this match and will want to attack from first to last minute, and a very big result could happen. I like the Over 2.5 Team Goals @ 2.4. Benfica has to potential to do it and has actually done it in both results against Arouca this season (4-0 in both matches, one for League Cup and another for the Championship). Problem here is the first goal. When it comes it, the rest will come by itself.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 I will be following you on this one...kind of.I think that there will be goals in this game too but instead of over 2.5 Benfica team goals i will be on Benfica to win & over 2.5 @ evens with bet365.It covers the risk of 1:2.Odds are less attractive but still high enough and the probability is higher as well.GL!

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 for me, it is the below evens problem. Even though I reckon some value there (a 1-2 could happen as Arouca have interesting players upfront), I have a bit of trouble backing stuff below evens. Was 1.90 last time I checked.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Portugal » Liga ZON Sagres »20- 23 March 2015 [TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 20 March 2015[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Sporting de Braga v Académica de Coimbra (20:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.43[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]10.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.45 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 21 March 2015[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Estoril-Praia v Penafiel (16:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.79 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Rio Ave v Benfica (18:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]10[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.43 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Nacional da Madeira v FC Porto (20:15 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]10.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.36 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 22 March 2015[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Boavista FC v Belenenses (16:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.15[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.73 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Futebol Clube de Arouca v Gil Vicente (16:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.36[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.40 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Moreirense FC v Marítimo (16:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.46[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.72 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Sporting CP v Vitoria de Guimaraes (18:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.44[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]8.8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.43 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Monday 23 March 2015[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Vitória de Setúbal v Paços de Ferreira (20:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.85[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.85[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.43 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Haven't came here for a while, but SL Benfica x FC Porto today. Big clash as it could decide the championship. FC Porto lags behind SL Benfica by 3 points so they have to win it here tomorrow. But even winning might not be enough. Benfica won 2-0 the first match of the 13rd matchday in FC Porto. And even if FC Porto wins 1-0, 2-1 or 3-2, Benfica will stay in first place due to positive GD in both matches. FC Porto need to win 2-0, 3-1, 4-2 and so on. Therefore, it is to expect attacking football from FC Porto, and actually they are much better upfront than at the back. The same with Benfica as they have great players overall, but their defensive stability is not the best and against better teams they usually concede. Eliseu in the left is a big liability and I expect FC Porto to do 70% of their attacks on their right-wing. But while they will try to attack and to score, they will leave space behind for SL Benfica to exploit. Therefore, attacking football will be the only way for this match. I don't expect it to be tactic. Even if it is until the first goal, it will stop being tactic from the first goal. Also to point out that FC Porto come from an horrific result against Bayern Munchen, losing 1-6 at the Allianz Arena. However, I don't expect a crushed FC Porto. And coach Lopetegui has already warned that the team will give a very good response and I expect them to do it. Usually this FC Porto of Lopetegui delivers an excellent response after a bad result. Therefore, I have to fully recommend BTTS @ 2.00 (Ladbrokes) and 1.95 in some bookies. Big big value. FC Porto have to score to win it (of course, you can't win if you can't score) and they have the attacking weapons to do it, even without Tello. The fact that they have to score at least for me is enough to assume they will score. On the other hand, SL Benfica will have less pressure for this match and they also have incredibly good players upfront with Jonas, Gaitan and possibly Salvio if he recovers. Plus it is safe to assume they will score as they are scoring at home for the championship for 92 matches in row (!!!). FC Porto also look unstable in the back against powerful team upfront, and I expect them to concede at least once. Risky punters might try the Over 2.5 @ 2.3, but the BTTS is a good enough bet. Would price it 1.80 myself.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Marítimo v Rio Ave Marítimo: Fernando Ferreira (17/0 m), Dyego Sousa (18/2 f), Edgar Costa (30/4 f), Fransérgio (27/4 m), Gêgê (20/0 d) Rio Ave: Roderick (3/0 d), Marcelo (14/1 d), Pedro Moreira (26/3 m), Hassan Ahmed Koka (22/12 f, top scorer), Lionn (25/0 d), Gouano (26/0 d), Zeegelaar (24/1 m) Paços de Ferreira v Académica Coimbra Paços de Ferreira: Rodrigo Galo (10/1 d), Manuel José (16/1 m), Ricardo Ferreira (11/0 d), Ricardo (26/1 d), Sousa (3/0 m) Académica Coimbra: Makonda (2/0 m), Edgar Salli (9/0 f), Marinho (13/3 f), Rui Pedro (29/6 m, top scorer) Information from more then 50 football leagues and competitions at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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