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Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15


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[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 17 August 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Académica de Coimbra v Sporting CP (16:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.72[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]104.54 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Benfica v Paços de Ferreira (16:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]10[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]104.93 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FC Porto v Marítimo (16:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.33[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]10[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]103.18 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Futebol Clube de Arouca v Estoril-Praia (16:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.35[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.73 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Gil Vicente v Vitoria de Guimaraes (16:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]103.33 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Nacional da Madeira v Moreirense FC (16:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]104.41 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Penafiel v Belenenses (16:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.37[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]104.61 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Rio Ave v Vitória de Setúbal (16:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]103.79 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Sporting de Braga v Boavista FC (16:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.48[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.33[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]103.98 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Benfica all over the place in pre season after losing several key players. Sporting look good again this season under Marco Silva but after some very good signings Porto as so often is the case in Portugal are the team to beat. I reckon there's going to be some nice value betting against Benfica in the early rounds.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15

Benfica all over the place in pre season after losing several key players. Sporting look good again this season under Marco Silva but after some very good signings Porto as so often is the case in Portugal are the team to beat. I reckon there's going to be some nice value betting against Benfica in the early rounds.
Wise words from this man.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 SC Braga -1.5 @ 2.05 (bet365) for a 0.6 stake The only bet that I'm really confident about for tomorrow, but still on a lower stake as it is first matchday. Boavista lack a lot of individual quality and that will show during the whole match. They didn't look that convincing in the last pre-season match, with losses to 2nd league and 3rd league teams (Sportiing B and Famalicão, respectively). They started the pre-season well with a friendly cup against 1st league teams, but I wouldn't rate that much. Losses against Sporting B and Famalicão shown a big lack of individual quality. They are still waiting for the money from the Portuguese Federation to get some good players and compete. SC Braga have a new manager, Sérgio Conceição, which I rate as a very competent one. They got a lot of new players, some of them are real quality! Their team needed a real boost of quality of some positions, including GK, CBs and wing-backs. Braga didn't make that many pre-season matches, but first indications were very good. Braga have risen the bar to fight for the top-4 again this season. I believe SC Braga will show that even without some important players such as Wallace and with an out-form Rafa, all other players including Pardo, Alan, Tiba, Micael, Eder and Agra upfront, and with renewed quality full-back in Djavan, Tiago Gomes and Marcelo, they seem to have the quality they need to win by 2 at least. Possibly will have to overcome a very defensive and deep Boavista defensive line, but they will eventually collapse. Suk (Nacional) TSA @ 3.2 (bet365) for a 0.20 stake Got it at 3.4 y'day, at 3.2 now and I still rate it as value. Nacional finished 5th place last season and will face Moreirense in the opening round. Moreirense finished first place in Segunda Liga last season but changed their team a lot. They got Miguel Leal as their main manager. Leal led Penafiel to promotion last season and looked to me like a very competent manager. Nacional will face trouble but their team is enough to beat Moreirense. Suk is a south korean striker that Nacional bought in the start of the season. He already played for Maritimo 2 seasons ago, scored some goals and made a good impression. He has been scoring in the pre-season and it is almost a certainty that he will be first team with the departure of Djaniny. He has a good chance to score, and I believe he will.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 [TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Monday 18 August 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Futebol Clube de Arouca v Estoril-Praia (20:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.65[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.3[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.18 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 22 August 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Vitoria de Guimaraes v Penafiel (20:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.52[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]119.29 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 23 August 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Marítimo v Académica de Coimbra (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.81[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.1[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]111.90 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Paços de Ferreira v FC Porto (18:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]8.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.85[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.38[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]109.80 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Sporting CP v Futebol Clube de Arouca (20:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7.4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]117.10 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 24 August 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Belenenses v Nacional da Madeira (16:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.3[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]120.29 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Estoril-Praia v Rio Ave (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.74[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.35[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]112.32 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Vitória de Setúbal v Gil Vicente (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.76[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]117.93 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Low stakes, still start of the season. André Martins TSA @ 4.75 (bet365) for a 0.25 stake Adrien Silva TSA @ 4 (bet365) for a 0.25 stake Too bad I didn't post early on Adrien Silva. 2 days ago, you could back him at 7 to score! Sporting plays against Arouca tomorrow. Both teams drew in the first round of the Primeira Liga. Sporting was quite unlucky and couldn't win it against Académica. They could have been 2 or 3 up in the first half, and then a sending off in the second half threw everything to lose in the dying minutes. Sporting looks a bit weak in the CBs, they need reinforcements there. Sporting lost Rojo to Man Utd, but were able to snatch Nani on a 1-year loan. The hype regarding Nani's return is enormous, stadium will be well composed (above 40000 people is the estimates). Nani will probably start on the bench, but could also be in the first team. Arouca drew 1-1 against Estoril in the first round, and were quite lucky to survive with a draw. GK Goicochea was able to secure a point with some good saves. To me, Arouca seems to have a good squad to avoid relegation, but will surely lack individual quality against stronger squads, and especially when playing away. Pedro Emanuel is also a very defensive coach and enjoys the usual time wasting, and I think we will see some of that tomorrow as well. I believe Sporting has what it takes to win tomorrow by a good scoreline. 2-0, 3-0, 3-1 are possible results. No immediate value in usual markets, and anytime goalscorer markets hide the real value. Sporting still has a lack of finishing ability. Slimani not playing due to problems with the club, Montero and Tanaka are not your usual finishers. Sporting are relying too much on goals from wingers and specially midfielders. Adrien and André Martins scored some goals in the pre-season, and both had chances to score against Académica. They show up a lot in finishing zones, plus Adrien is the usual PK taker and doesn't miss. There is definite value in betting on them to score, and I think at least one of them will score. Estoril Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.25 (bet365) for a 0.5 stake Estoril drew 1-1 away against Arouca in the first round, and could have won it there. Still look a bit leaky at the back, but just like any José Couceiro team and adding to the good individual quality of the team, they look extremely good in attack. Playing at home, I'm sure they will want to start well and they also have a 4th place to defend from last season. Although I think they will not make it this time, they might as well be 5th or 6th place with no trouble at all. Rio Ave won the first fixture against Vitória Setúbal by 2-0, in a match where the team were well pushed physically. Match was hard and Rio Ave fought a lot of time 10 against 11, but their teamwork eventually prevailled against a very average Vitória Setúbal. But I think Rio Ave will surely be distracted on Sunday due to the importance of the match they will play on Thursday. They lost the first leg to Elfsborg in Sweden by 1-2, and will surely want to qualify to the Europa League group phase. Rio Ave's president was already said that the qualification for the Europa League group phase is the main objective, so I can see players not being totally focused for Sunday, even though thei manger will probably say otherwise. Due to these constraints, I feel Estoril have a good chance to win the match and their attacking ability might seem them score twice, so I like those odds at 2.25.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 First match, Adrien was the main penalty taker. Sporting has penalty, new player Nani takes the spot (and even failed). Sporting won 1-0, no goals scored by Adrien and André Martins. -0.5. Second match is for the ages. Rio Ave won 5-1, in a match were every single shot they took went in. Estoril just missed too much for my kind, horrific finishing. The sitter near the 90' should be watched by everyone. -0.5. That's a bad start. Don't usually like to throw all the culprit into the bad luck, but there was surely some this time. Next time will be better I hope.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Braga Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.3 (Coral) for a 0.4 stake Braga Estoril Over 2.5 @ 2.38 (Coral) for a 0.3 stake Braga to win and Over 2.5 @ 3.40 (bet365) for a 0.2 stake Splitting stakes well for this one. Braga come up in this new season with a new manager, a seriously competent one to be honest. They brought some new players that will have a big impact, especially Tiba. Then, they already have Eder, Pardo, Alan, Rafa and Ruben Micael as attacking choices, which is really good. They have a big amount of quality upfront, and didn't get to score against Moreirense as they are ultra-defensive, but they had the chances in the 2nd half. And even not playing well, they won against Boavista 3-0. Estoril looked really bad in defending in both matches so far (Arouca away 1-1, Rio Ave home 1-5 loss), although they were attacking well. I think we could see overs here. Braga surely have to quality to score at least twice (hence the enormous Over 1.5 TG @ 2.30 on Coral) for playing at home and will want to win this. Estoril are leaky at the back and are traditionally an attacking team. Result against Rio Ave was clearly abnormal. Think Braga will win this as well, and I'm coupling it with Overs. Rio Ave -1.5 AH (bet365) @ 2.75 for a 0.65 stake For me, this is one of the bets of the soccer week, although it is only on Monday. Rio Ave with 6 points, 2 wins so far, with a good win at home against Setúbal (2-0) and an impressive away win against Estoril (5-1). Although Estoril didn't deserve to lose by 5 goals and could have scored one or another, Rio Ave were impressive in attack. Hassan is scoring goals for fun and Del Valle, Bressan and Tarantini know how to support upfront. Boavista is just too short for this Rio Ave. Most of the players quality are still weak while they are waiting from the money from the Portuguese Federation to build a better team. Much of the players come from the 3rd division, although they bought Owusu Abeyie recently, which should add quality to the team if he wants to play football (which is usually not the case). Other players are expected to come in before the transfer market closure, but not in time to play against Rio Ave. Boavista played reasonably well defensively against Benfica but Benfica was not at their best. Against Braga, a very below-average Braga did enough to win 3-0. Rio Ave should be motivated after yesterday's qualification for Europa League group phase, and it is just a matter of knowing how will the team cope emmotionally. Even if they are not at their best mentally, they are arguably the much better team and will want to win against the weaker side of the Primeira Liga. Braga won by 3 goals, think Rio Ave might assure a win against Boavista and I expect it to be by two goals at least. Handicap lines look IMMENSE at the moment, and will crash before kick-off.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Nacional x Sp. Braga: BTTS - Yes @ 2.00 (Betfair Sportsbook) for a 0.8 stake Nacional x Sp. Braga: BTTS & Draw @ 4.75 (Betfair Sportsbook) for a 0.15 stake Nacional and Sporting Braga had a rough last week. Nacional lost 1-2 away to Estoril in a very entertaining match. Sp. Braga were blocked by Arouca away, losing 0-1 in a very ugly match (usual from Arouca). Their attack wasn't that good this time, but credit had to be given to Arouca. Both teams are starting to look really good upfront, especially Nacional. After a very rough start of season (still no wins for them), attack looks like starting to play as it should. However, their backline is surely one of the worst of the championship. Mexer left during the summer transfer window and that is making the difference. Marçal and Miguel Rodrigues are good, but not in-form, while other central defenders are not quality enough and Zainadine (right-back) is not consistent enough. Ali Ghazal (defensive midfielder) not as good as last season as well. This makes them sure candidates to concede in every single match, even though their GK is good. I expect a moment in this championship that the Sp. Braga will be a nut hard to break. Sergio Conceição teams know how to defend really well but they only achieve their defending potential in the second half of the championship. Nacional stadium is always a very hard stadium for Sp. Braga and I expect that once again. Upfront they are having trouble is scoring away (they still haven't scored away) but they faced teams that know how to defend really well (Moreirense and Arouca). Nacional is not like that and I expect them to score this time. Both teams will be fighting for the win as they have the need to bounce back from last week loss. Both teams not defending well (especially Nacional) but loads of talent upfront (especially Braga). I think BTTS is a solid bet here @ 2.00, and I also like the BTTS & Draw @ 4.75 as both teams could want it so bad that they will end up in a 1-1, 2-2 draw.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 +1.37 on the Nacional - Braga bet (1-1). Got a bit lucky there, Braga were with 10-men when they drew. Sporting - Porto: BTTS - Yes @ 2.00 (Coral/Ladbrokes) for a 0.7 stake. In Portugal, everyone is talking about the H2H between both teams, because it reveals some specific trends. Those trends are U2.5, BTTS: No and Sporting win or draw. However, it would be wrong to assume H2Hs assuming that things never change and that games are independent from one another. Another reason that why I totally avoid statistical analysis as a basis for a bet. Of course sometimes it matters, and should be respected and used as a decision support system, but never as the only decision support system. Anyway, on to the game. This is a classic! Sporting - Porto is a very historical game between two big clubs, and this one could be a good game as well. Although those trends of U2.5 and BTTS: No are important, this could go the other way. Sporting is showing some good exhibitions in spite of their big weaknesses at the back. They have scored in every single match so far because they know how to attack, although they lacked some finishing touch in the first matches. Last match they won 4-0 and produced an amazing exhibition! Nani is on fire and João Mário did a surprising start in the XI, made 2 assists and an incredible display. Should be on the XI once again. Whole team should be motivated to win a "classico" and playing at home, the ambience will be at their favour. Coach Marco Silva has a winner mentality, and will not stop until scoring and winning. Jefferson will be back to the left of the defence and Carrillo for Capel, while João Mário will stay in the XI. Sporting attack is really strong with Nani, Carrillo and Slimani well supported by attacking midfielders Adrien and João Mário. Defence is quite leaky though, Mauricio and Sarr are not good enough, while Jefferson opens up too much space in behind. Even though with a good GK such as Rui Patricio, they could concede. FC Porto are doing a regular season so far, in spite of their dip in form on the last 2 matches on the league. They had two consecutive draws (1-1 Vitoria away, 0-0 Boavista home) which made them lose the first place to Benfica, but they are looking excellent on Champions League, after winning the play-off against Lille 3-0 on aggregate, and 6-0 at home against BATE Borisov. Julen Lopetegui has a big squad, full of quality players in all positions. Their attack is, in honest opinion, the best on the league. Brahimi and Jackson Martinez are regulars, while they also rotate Quaresma, Tello, Oliver Torres and Aboubakar. That's too much talent! I expect Brahimi, Jackson Martinez and Tello tomorrow. Also, they usually have high possession, usually above 65%, although I expect that to drop to the 55% or less as Sporting also enjoys having the possession and plays at home. Plus, midfield seems to be lacking some nerve and clutch, and the Sporting midfield could win the battle with such quality there. At the back, they seem solid but that is because they usually have more possession. They suffer a bit of the Guardiola syndrome, where the possession is just on how to avoid goal-scoring chances from the opponent. When put under some good executed pressure, Porto's defense looks a bit insecure, just as it was seen against Vitória Guimarães. BTTS: Yes usually is very straightforward when we have two teams that play well and display good attacking moves, but are underperforming in defence. That's the deal here. Sporting has good attack, bad defense, but plays at home so goal expectancy is higher and should open up some spaces in the back. FC Porto has good attack (the best in the League, to me) and so-so defence that has some weaknesses that could be well exploited by a good attack like Sporting, and play away. Therefore, BTTS:Yes is 2.00 on Ladbrokes and Coral, I think there is a bit of value there and should be 1.83.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Vitoria -1 AH @ 2.17 (Unibet) for a 0.55 stake Vitoria Over 2.5 Team Goals @ 4 (Coral) for a 0.15 stake In all honesty, and even though Vitória lost 0-4 last week and Boavista won 3-2 with a lot of luck against last placed Gil Vicente, there is still a big difference in individual quality between teams. Boavista is still the worst team in terms of individual quality in the league, but they still managed to win twice at home and draw against FC Porto away (0-0), although they were playing against 10 for 70 minutes and...were completely dominated by FC Porto! This shows the overall quality of the team. And away, they struggle even more. One of the reasons is that at home, they play on a synthetic field, and they feel the difference when playing away. Vitória had a bad day against Maritimo, they are a good team. Although they will struggle a lot against top tiers due to lack of experience and some players are missing in defence, they have enough to win against this weak Boavista. If they managed to score early, then this could easily go to the 3-0, 4-0 scoreline. Vitoria manager already said that team looks wounded and wants to show in front of their fans what they are made of. I expect a good performance from them, players will be up for it and -1 AH looks good. Also a small stake on Over 2.5 Team Goals.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Gil Vicente x Estoril: BTTS & O2.5 @ 2.50 (bet365) for a 0.65 stake I'm very surprised by this odd, which I consider it as a little gift. Gil Vicente is last placed, with only 1 point. They come from an away loss against Boavista, the worst team on the league (2-3) and that says a lot. They are one of the worst teams of the league, and already on the second manager, which is Jose Mota, a old fashion manager who has no sense of tactic whatsoever. Moreover, defensively, Gil Vicente doesn't have very good players except their GK. Simmy is an average striker, but is in-form and Caetano is a good and pacey winger. Cesar Peixoto is also the brains behind the team, dangerous long range shooting and set pieces. Other than that, team is well below average. They looked good enough in some attacking moves against Boavista and actually had the chances to win it! Think they will have chances to score tomorrow. They will be facing Estoril-Praia, a team that is suffering a bit with the lack of organization at the back lately, but is full of talented players! Their manager Jose Couceiro enjoys attacking football and with the likes of players such as Kleber, Seba, Kuca and Bruno Lopes (good sub) upfront they are always on the edge to scoring goals against anyone. Actually, and not counting Europa Leagues matches, they have always scored at least once for every 6 matches on the league so far. Problem is that they have always conceded at least once...at with their 3rd match in 8 days now their legs should be hurting. They will feel tired at one moment or another in the match. So, that's a typical for you: Gil Vicente is a bad defense and average attack, but play at home. Estoril has a bad defense (atm) and a very good attack, so it all joins in for a BTTS and Over 2.5. Over 2.5 odds are switched, should be 1.80/2.10 and not 2.10/1.80 as they are in most bookies. My bet is BTTS & O2.5, which is at a tasty odd of 2.50 on bet365. I believe both teams will score at least once and at least one of them (possibly Estoril) will be scoring twice.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Pacos Ferreira - Maritimo, Based on the fact that Potuguese League is very tight, with games ending very closed I see this game ending in a draw. Last season Maritimo had almost 30% of draws in 30 league games, but this year has 4w and 2l. Pacos only lost to Porto on their home field so I can see this team giving a hard time to Maritimo (the better team in this game). It is time for the first draw of the season for Maritimo so I will take the 3.20 odd offered by bet365 x @ 3.20 4/10 Possible score: 0-0

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Been out for too long. But honestly, not enough time at the moment. Rio Ave looks like a very tired team at the moment. They are conceding just too much now and then, and although they did look good against Steaua (both home and away), and against Benfica away, I wouldn't trust them as I feel they could be on the limit of their strengths. I think they will be very fatigued physically and emotionally after the draw against Steaua (which happened in the last second...). Squad is very short in terms of quality in the back and in midfield, and some players will really feel their legs today. Académica is not the most spectacular team, and lacks a lot of quality (especially in the back). However, they have been getting better match after match, even though I don't trust them enough to ever bet on them against anyone in this league, except Boavista (and they already lost against them, for example...). In matches where I'm not totally comfortable in speculating a bet, I usually go for odds above above 3.0, which is the case, except some minor exceptions. I would say there there is a high chance of a 1-1. Both team are better on the attacking phase than defending. Plus Rio Ave should be very fatigued and could concede. Académica could snatch the point here. Would make a Draw @ 3.4 30% and Correct Score 1-1 @ 7.5 10%. But nothing too serious as I said before.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Belenenses - Sp Braga BTTS: Yes @ 2.15 (Betfair Sportsbook) for a 0.8 stake Belenenses is above expectations, with 21 points on 6th place. They come from an expected loss at Benfica's home turf by 0-3, and their best two players Miguel Rosa and Deyverson did not play. Tomorrow they will. Plus, the team is very well organized, knows how to sit deep and defend, but also knows how to exploit the weaknesses of the other team in attack. Braga has managed to do some impressive stuff this season. They won against Vitoria Guimarães (currently 3rd placed) 2-1 at their home turf for the Taça de Portugal, and were the only ones to win against SL Benfica, current champions for the championship (2-1). They are a bit hit and miss, but they are much more regular now than they were at the start of the team. They are a very emotional and spirited team. Their attack, on a good day, can outclass defenders, just as they did a while ago against Penafiel (6-1). Both teams are doing a good season and this match is very important to both, as it wil define with is the team with the upper hand to fight for the Europa League qualification. Although there is a lot of matches until the end of the season, both managers have admitted that this match is very important so I'm expecting the best from each to come out. Belenenses look great in all aspects and play at home but their individual quality is below Braga. On the other hand, Braga's defense is very leaky on the away form, they have the left-back injured and a left-back without any competitive physical fitness will play. Both their central defenders are not that great as well. I'm expecting Braga to come forward for this one as they will want to win it and they have the firepower upfront to do it, with the likes of Pardo, Alan, Rafa and Eder. I do think this will be a great match, between two in-forms teams, so a BTTS @ 2.15 looks like a very good bet for me.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Over 2.5 @ 2.20 (Ladbrokes/BF Sportsbook) in Estoril - Vitória Guimarães for a 0.75 stake Both teams will be willing to win this one. Estoril are gaining momentum and have a very strong attacking phase. Kuca, Kleber and Sebá are just a joy tto watch when they are at their best. This Estoril is very leaky at the back as The manager José Couceiro enjoys attacking football and does not worry that much with defensive processes, but they really attack well. They held Benfica to a tight win at their home soil (2-3) and FC Porto almost lost there, avoiding the loss in a last-minute goal (2-2). Estoril have Anderson Esiti out. He is one of the most important players of the team. Without him, they concede more goals. He will surely be missed and Estoril will have some defensive problems today. Anderson Luis (starter right-back) also out. Vitória Guimarães are third place and although they have the merit in being there due to being a very well organized and will-spirited team, they seems to lack squad depth and some strength in the back four. They will ventually collapse and get below the top-3. But still, they should not be underestimated. They are without some important players (Defendi, Saré, Alvez) but they have two great attacking players in Hernani and Bernard, a very solid central midfielder (Andre Andre) and two good attacking wing-backs. They will up for it in attack. Attacking set pieces are also a strength of Vitória. I recall this one will be a very open match, full of goal scoring chances and Estoril might have the edge in just winning it at the end. Although, Vitória Guimarães are a very will-spirited team and might just hold a draw or a very tight win, so I'm avoiding match odds and going for the goals.

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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 -0.75 Nacional x Sporting Over 2.5 @ 2.05 (bet365) for a 0.6 stake Nacional x Sporting Over 2.5 and BTTS @ 2.40 (bet365) for a 0.4 stake Nacional play at home, usually have a very good home factor (match is played above 1.000 meters...) and strong attack with in-form Marco Matias, Suk and Rondon. Midfielder Gomaa is the team talisman and will be back after an injury. Manuel Machado (Nacional manager) already told that he wants to play the match and win it. Nacional took that approach against Benfica and played wide open and could have drawn that one (lost 1-2) as the referee did a wrong call which would give Nacional the draw. Sporting Lisbon is going through a bad phase. After a very bad draw against Moreirense at home (1-1), which they deserved to lose after such a bad exhibition, they were almost eliminated of the Taça de Portugal against a third division team (won 3-2 against Vizela). They president has been attacking the manager and the team for the bad exhibitions and results, the whole club looks like a burning house. And speaking as a fan, the manager and the players could hardly be excused for some things, but it is not their fault. And the president is not helping in creating a better atmosphere for players to recover the lost ground (currently 10 points behind first place). Team looks lacking quality at the back, with only Rui Patricio and Paulo Oliveira being good enough. Midfield not working with 2 midfielders out of form, some players with bad attitude in-game (Adrien, Cedric). However, other players are really playing well at the moment, especially left-back Jefferson and attackers Carrillo and Montero. Both teams have very fragile defensive lines and good attacks, especially Sporting. I'm expecting goals on this one, as Sporting know how to create opportunities in open matches and Nacional is a not a team of sitting deep and defend efficiently. But Nacional also know how to counter and Sporting have some bad players in the back... Moreirense -1 AH @ 2.33 (Unibet) for a 0.75 stake Moreirense -1.5 AH @ 3 (bet365) for a 0.25 stake The point being is that Moreirense are a much better team than Boavista. Surely Boavista won their last away match but it was against Vitória Setubal, the most out of form team of the Primeira Liga at the moment. Vitória Setubal are just horrid. Now, when Boavista faces against team that have better players and stronger team processes, they just can't cope, especially when playing away. Individual quality of the squad is just below what is needed to survive in Primeira Liga except 3 or 4 players. The team is very will-spirited and has a get stuck in approach, but that usually also leads to yellow and red cards, especially away. Also, when Boavista plays at home, they play on a synthetic turf. But away, all teams have a natural turf. This is a serious factor, and explains the difference of results of Boavista when playing at home (9 points) and away (only 4 points and Taça de Portugal elimination). Moreirense just held big team Sporting CP at their home turf (1-1) and they could have won it, and deserved to win it. They are very well organized, strong defensive organization and effective upfront. They will be lacking goalscorer Ramon Cardozo (out for suspension) but I expect Alex Gonçalves to step up and prove that he can be an option. Moreover, team processes are very good and I expect it to come out on top eventually. When facing teams of the same quality as Moreirense away, Boavista lost 1-3 to Belenenses and 0-4 to Maritimo. I think this one will be closer as Moreirense are not as good in attack as those teams, but they are good enough to win 2-0, or maybe even 3-0. -1 AH and -1.5 AH are currently at some good odds and I'm taking them while I can. Strangely, they have been drifting since morning!

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