July 14 - July 20

[CzechPunter]

Back Radek Stepanek to win ATP Bogota for a 3/10 stake at 6.00 with BetVictor Back Alejandro Falla to win ATP Bogota for a 2/10 stake at 13.00 with Bet365 Can see Stepanek and Falla having more motivation than Gasquet, who looks to be pretty out-of-place in such a small tournament. Stepanek is all about winning titles in this part of his career and Falla should enjoy playing in home conditions, so I fancy these two guys to out-perform the Frenchman this week. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/atp-bogota-betting-radek-stepanek-looks-like-the-main-favorite-in-colombia-this-week Back Andreas Seppi to win ATP Hamburg for a 1/10 stake at 81.00 with Bet365 Back Benoit Paire to win ATP Hamburg for a 1/10 stake at 151.00 with Bet365 Back Jarkko Nieminen to win ATP Hamburg for a 1/10 stake at 201.00 with Paddy Power Back Dominic Thiem to win ATP Hamburg for a 1/10 stake at 101.00 with Paddy Power The favorites don't interest me at all, so I am going for four interest punts on players that have the skills or experience to win the entire thing, although they don't have the right form for getting any sort of hype right now. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/atp-hamburg-betting-david-ferrer-looks-rather-vulnerable-in-the-atp-tournament-in-hamburg Back Caroline Wozniacki to win WTA Istanbul for a 3/10 stake at 3.75 with Ladbrokes Back Tsvetana Pironkova to win WTA Istanbul for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Paddy Power Back Kristina Mladenovic to win WTA Istanbul for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with BetVictor This looks like one of the tournaments that Wozniacki should dominate from start to finish, while Pironkova and Mladenovic look like decent outside picks at these odds, as they are both capable of producing a great run out of nowhere. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/wta-istanbul-betting-caroline-wozniacki-can-shine-in-istanbul Back Kaia Kanepi to win WTA Bastad for a 2.5/10 stake at 9.00 with BetVictor Back Polona Hercog to win WTA Bastad for a 2.5/10 stake at 11.00 with BetVictor Kanepi has been in impressive form on the ITF circuit recently and she certainly has what it takes to transform that into some good WTA results, while Hercog has already won this thing on two occasions and that could help her to finally fully re-establish herself on the main tour after the long injury break she had to go through at the start of the season. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/wta-bastad-betting-kaia-kanepi-and-polona-hercog-look-value-over-in-sweden

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 14 - July 20 Back Filip Krajinovic to beat Jan-Lennard Struff for a 7/10 stake at 2.75 with Bet365 Lukas Rosol is the only player Struff has beaten recently and I think that Krajinovic has got enough talent and potential to establish himself on the main tour, so I really like the Serb at this sort of a price. The pressure should be on Struff here - and Krajinovic doesn't appear to be the easiest of opponents for the young German. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/krajinovic-vs-struff-betting-filip-krajinovic-has-what-it-takes-to-beat-jan-lennard-struff-in-hamburg

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 14 - July 20 Back Chanelle Scheepers (-3.5) to beat Mariana Duque-Marino for a 7/10 stake at 1.83 with Unibet Last week, Scheepers beat Duque-Marino for the loss of just three games in Bastad, so chances are that she's going to record yet another good victory over the Colombian today, especially since she showed that her last week's win wasn't a fluke by following it up with a victory over Meusburger and a good performance against Errani. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/scheepers-vs-duque-marino-betting-chanelle-scheepers-can-start-her-bastad-campaign-with-an-easy-victory-on-monday

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 14 - July 20 Back Klara Koukalova (-3.5) to beat Donna Vekic for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with Bet365 Koukalova has a 2-0 record against Vekic and both of those matches come from this very season, so I think that she'll be able to outplay her young opponent from Croatia once again and bounce back from the disappointing loss she recorded against Niculescu last week. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/koukalova-vs-vekic-betting-klara-koukalova-to-bounce-back-with-a-good-win-against-donna-vekic-in-istanbul

[Kingmoses]

Re: July 14 - July 20 Excellent work Czech! Was made to sweat on Koukalova, thought she blew it towards the end. :clap

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 14 - July 20 Yep, that wasn't the cleanest of sets ;).

[Atko]

Re: July 14 - July 20 Going to make a return to the PL threads. Two early ones with a few more to come ... - Martin Klizan -4.5 games v Igor Sijsling (in Hamburg) @ 1.88 with dafabet Sijsling is in really poor form at the moment and clay is probably his least effective surface, so I can seem him struggling against Klizan here. The Slovak's favoured conditions are the red dirt and he'll get a lot of joy from his left-handed forehand on to Sijsling's single-handed backhand. The Dutchman is not well-regarded for his defence and I can't envisage him being able to deal with Klizan's attack. Klizan defeated him indoors last year too and is back to something near his closest form. -4.5 games is a big line, but it's very doable considering where Sijsling is right now. - 1pt staked - Over 22.5 games between Albert Ramos and Jerzy Janowicz (in Hamburg) @ 1.99 with dafabet Janowicz's ranking has plummeted since his R3 departure at Wimbledon and he really needs to pick his form back up. I feel the price on him is too big, but Ramos, due to some nice work on the clay in recent weeks, merits respect. With that in mind, I'm inclined to take the overs here. They met twice last year and in best-of-three encounter on clay it went the distance. I can see that being the case again today. Both men have different styles - JJ hits the ball very hard, throws in dropshots and is quite erratic, while Ramos is more mechanical yet less likely to hit winners. The ingredients are there for a tight match and 22.5 games does not seem unreasonable. - 1pt staked

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 14 - July 20 Back Alexander Zverev (+3.5) to beat Robin Haase for a 7/10 stake at 1.83 with Unibet Fancy Zverev in this one after seeing him against Rosol in Stuttgart last week. He might be young, but he certainly has what it takes to play against guys like Haase on equal terms and the Dutchman hasn't been in the best of forms lately, so the young German should have every chance of getting something from this one. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/zverev-vs-haase-betting-alexander-zverev-can-impress-against-robin-haase-in-hamburg

[Atko]

Re: July 14 - July 20 Here are the rest of my Hamburg selections ... - Dominic Thiem -2.5 games v Marcel Granollers (in Hamburg) @ 1.90 with dafabet I was really impressed by Thiem yesterday against Jiri Vesely. He was striking the ball really well and seemed right at home on the clay here. He had a poor grass spell, but as he's young, I put that down to not being mature enough to deal with the conditions. He's proven himself already on clay - he beat Stan Wawrinka a few months ago - and, perhaps more ominously, beat Granollers in Barcelona, covering the handicap. The Spaniard is fine in these conditions, but Thiem has the armoury to hit through him at the baseline and the imagination to pass him at the net should he rush it. I think he's a good bet to win this match and cover the line. - 2pts staked - Tommy Robredo -3.5 games v Daniel Gimeno-Traver (in Hamburg) @ 1.99 with dafabet Robredo has a shocker in Bastad last week in losing to Renzo Olivo, but as most of the top players tend to do, I expect him to bounce right back here. DGT is probably in his optimum conditions on clay, but I feel he still hasn't harnessed his power game properly and is far too inconsistent. His win yesterday over a half-fit, half-motivated Teymuraz Gabashvili doesn't do a lot to the form book either and he tends to struggle against higher-ranked players. Robredo is experienced, has beaten DGT twice before and knows how to bounce back from bad defeats. I expect him to cover the line. - 1pt staked - Benoit Paire +3.5 games v Santiago Giraldo (in Hamburg) @ 1.83 with dafabet I'm not one for backing Paire normally, but I reckon he might have a chance here. The last six months for the Frenchman have been punctuated by injury, but coming through a tough match with Andrey Golubev yesterday will have boosted his confidence and there is no doubt he's a quality player - probably top 30 - when his best game clicks into gear. Giraldo's had a fine season himself, but I wonder if he's starting to fizzle out a little bit. The signs are there, such as a dropped set last week to Philip Davydenko. Paire's beaten him before - albeit on a hard court - but after yesterday's win and taking into account Giraldo, I'm going to play on the +3.5 line. - 1pt staked

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 14 - July 20 Back Mikhail Kukushkin (+1.5 sets) to beat David Ferrer for a 5/10 stake at 3.59 with Pinnacle Back Mikhail Kukushkin to beat David Ferrer for a 2/10 stake at 10.25 with Pinnacle David Ferrer seems to be struggling at the moment, so the odds that are on offer for Kukushkin look way too high to me, although there's every chance that he's going to lose this 6-2 6-2 if Ferrer plays well. He hasn't played well for quite a while now, however - and the Kazakh won't be an easy opponent for the world's number seven if he plays as poorly as he did against Carlos Berlocq in Bastad last week. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/kukushkin-vs-ferrer-betting-mikhail-kukushkin-looks-value-against-the-struggling-spaniard

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 14 - July 20 Back James Ward to beat Matthew Ebden for a 7/10 stake at 2.37 with BetVictor Matthew Ebden has won just five matches since the start of the season, so I don't believe that he deserves any sort of favoritism right now. Ward hasn't done much lately either, but the two qualifying victories should give him some confidence and he's certainly good enough to beat the Australian, so I'll be siding with him at odds against. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/ward-vs-ebden-betting-james-ward-has-what-it-takes-to-upset-matthew-ebden-in-colombia

[Torque]

Re: July 14 - July 20 One for later in Colombia. As an aside, it's nice to see Atko back. Always enjoyed reading his posts, and along with Czech and Fishy's they inspired me to start posting on the tennis threads. Tatsuma Ito (+1.5 Sets) to beat Alejandro Falla @ 2.270 Pinnacle Tatsuma Ito (+4.5 Games) to beat Alejandro Falla @ 1.926 Pinnacle Falla has been made a heavy favourite for this, which is fair enough as he is in better form than Ito and has home advantage. Despite that, I'm not sure this match will be as easy for him as it might appear. Hard is Ito's best surface, and he's had a pretty good year at Challenger level so I don't see why he can't compete with Falla here. His retirement last time out in Newport is a concern, but he must be fit enough otherwise I don't think he would play. Falla is playing his first match since Wimbledon and could be rusty as a result, and he hasn't actually won a match since his run to the last four in Halle several weeks ago. I think a couple of tight sets are a possibility and that Ito might even be able to nick a set, most probably the first. Either way, I see value on the Japanese on both handicap lines.

[derstatic]

Re: July 14 - July 20 Any ideas what is going on with the odds on Sela v. Arguello? Lots of bookies have closed the market. On Betfair Sela drifted from 1.40 to 2.60 dog during the day. Insane amounts of money matched at this market compared to other from ATP Bogota.

[Torque]

Re: July 14 - July 20

Any ideas what is going on with the odds on Sela v. Arguello? Lots of bookies have closed the market. On Betfair Sela drifted from 1.40 to 2.60 dog during the day. Insane amounts of money matched at this market compared to other from ATP Bogota.

I'd say the most reasonable explanation is that word has got out that Sela is carrying an injury, something like that.

[Torque]

Re: July 14 - July 20

I'd say the most reasonable explanation is that word has got out that Sela is carrying an injury' date=' something like that.[/quote'] That's not to say that he is injured by the way, I have no idea.

[Torque]

Re: July 14 - July 20 I've only ever seen the prices reverse like that once in the last few years, which was a match between Chela and Schwank on South American clay. Chela opened at about 1.40 and by the time the match started was priced at about 3.00. He lost in the end, retiring during the match but the market was all over the place and couldn't seem to make its mind up about what was going to happen.

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 14 - July 20 Yep, perhaps an injury, perhaps something else. The bottom line is that you want to stay away from betting on such matches unless you know what's going on.

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 14 - July 20 Back Dusan Lajovic to beat Carlos Berlocq for a 7/10 stake at 3.00 with Titanbet Lajovic seems to be on the up, Berlocq seems to be on the down, so I am not sure where these odds are coming from. I, for one, would have Berlocq as only a marginal favorite in this match, so I'm happy to side with the Serb at 3.00. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/lajovic-vs-berlocq-betting-dusan-lajovic-shouldn-t-be-underestimated-in-his-match-against-carlos-berlocq

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 14 - July 20 Back Dinah Pfizenmaier to beat Yulia Putintseva for a 7/10 stake at 1.84 with Pinnacle Pfizenmaier played well against Hercog yesterday, so I think that she has every chance of making it through to the third round. Putintseva has dropped to the ITF circuit this year and she's not exactly winning those tournaments with ease either, so I don't believe that she has what it takes to go far in Bastad this week. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/pfizenmaier-vs-putintseva-betting-dinah-pfizenmaier-has-what-it-takes-to-beat-yulia-putintseva-in-bastad

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 14 - July 20 Back Dustin Brown (+1.5 sets) to beat Fernando Verdasco for a 7/10 stake at 2.03 with Betsson Good odds for the set handicap in my opinion. Brown looked surprisingly solid against Carreno-Busta in the first round and we all know that Verdasco is fully capable of throwing in a poor set these days, so I fancy the German to be rather competitive in this one today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/brown-vs-verdasco-betting-dustin-brown-to-play-a-good-match-against-the-spaniard-on-wednesday

[Bebe]

Re: July 14 - July 20 I will go for it, thank you, hope to a successful bet!

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 14 - July 20 Back Dusan Lajovic to beat Filip Krajinovic for a 8/10 stake at 1.70 with Pinnacle I backed Lajovic against Berlocq yesterday and I am definitely willing to back him against Krajinovic today after that win. Krajinovic might have beaten Fognini, but that result needs to be taken with a grain of salt and I'd still rate Lajovic as the much better player of the two overall, so 1.70 looks like a price worth taking to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/lajovic-vs-krajinovic-betting-dusan-lajovic-can-continue-his-good-hamburg-run-with-a-win-over-filip-krajinovic

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 14 - July 20 Back Kurumi Nara to beat Katerina Siniakova for a 8/10 stake at 1.72 with BetVictor Katerina Siniakova might have recorded her first WTA-level victory on Tuesday, but I expect Kurumi Nara to be way too strong for her today. The world's number thirty-eight needs to get some wins on the hard courts and she should be ready for this after beating Konta 6-2 6-0, so I am happy to back her outright at these odds. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/nara-vs-siniakova-betting-kurumi-nara-should-be-too-strong-for-katerina-siniakova-in-istanbul

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 14 - July 20 Back Alexander Zverev to beat Santiago Giraldo for a 7/10 stake at 3.22 with Pinnacle The young German is a man on a mission right now and he just isn't missing, so chances are that he'll be able to upset yet another bigger name in Hamburg today, especially since Giraldo isn't the most consistent performer on the tour. There will be time for opposing the young German, but, right now, he should be backed. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/zverev-vs-giraldo-betting-alexander-zverev-can-shine-against-santiago-giraldo-in-germany

[Atko]

Re: July 14 - July 20 A few for later on today ... - ATP Hamburg: David Ferrer -5.5 games v Andreas Seppi @ 2.12 with dafabet Generous odds on a line that Ferrer has covered all six times these two have met in best-of-three encounters. Neither man was convincing in opening-round wins, but Ferrer has an extra day's rest and evidently enjoys the match-up. - ATP Bogota: James Ward +2.5 games v Jimmy Wang @ 1.90 with dafabet Wang had a long three-setter yesterday with Przysienzy and only just scraped by. Ward is rested, is happy with the conditions having come through qualies and has beaten Wang before. Very close match in prospect, so to get the +2.5 games on Ward seems a little exuberant on the books' behalf. - ATP Bogota: Samuel Groth +1.5 sets v Richard Gasquet @ 2.16 with dafabet Tough opening match for Gasquet. Groth is in good form, confident, serves big and is au fait with the conditions and altitude here. Gasquet could easily drop a set in this match due to rustiness, so quite happy to play this one at good odds again.

[Torque]

Re: July 14 - July 20 Andreas Seppi (+1.5 Sets) to beat David Ferrer @ 2.690 Pinnacle Andreas Seppi (+5 Games) to beat David Ferrer @ 2.130 Pinnacle Ferrer just isn't playing well enough at the moment to be this short against a competent clay courter like Seppi, regardless of how well he's done against the Italian in the past. The last time he played a solid clay court player he lost in straight sets to Berlocq, and he even dropped a set in his last match against Kukushkin who I would say prefers hard courts. Seppi was slow to start against Monaco in his first round match, but recovered well to win in three sets. The last time he played Ferrer was at the French Open, where despite losing in straight sets he nearly covered the game handicap for this match. If he can nearly cover a five game handicap against Ferrer in the longer Grand Slam format, I think he has a good chance of covering it here and could perhaps take a set. Gilles Simon to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber @ 2.66 Betfair Gilles Simon (+1.5 Sets) to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber @ 1.602 Pinnacle Gilles Simon (+2.5 Games) to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber @ 1.990 Pinnacle Kohlschreiber was fortunate not to go a set down in the last round against Elias, because if he had I'm not sure he would have come back to win the match. He's been unconvincing during the last few weeks, and I don't think he will relish the prospect of a match against a player he has a poor record against. Simon hasn't played since Wimbledon owing to a walkover in the last round here, but on the other hand he is fully rested and should be itching to get back on court. Even though he hasn't played Kohlschreiber for a number of years, in this case I think the results of their previous matches are telling. Simon is good on return and is the type of player that likes to make his opponents play one more shot, and I would imagine that's what Kohlscreiber finds difficult to deal with. A win for the Frenchman in this match is a real possibility in my opinion.

[Torque]

Re: July 14 - July 20 Dudi Sela (+1.5 Sets) to beat Ivo Karlovic @ 1.885 Pinnacle Dudi Sela (+3 Games) to beat Ivo Karlovic @ 1.833 Pinnacle These two faced off last week in Newport, where Karlovic emerged as the winner in straight sets. The match was a close one though, and I see no reason why it won't be close again. Karlovic made it all the way to the final last week so fatigue could be an issue for the big Croat, not to mention that this will be his first match of this tournament. Sela already has a match under his belt in these conditions, and he played well enough in an easy win over Arguello. He plays most of his tennis on hard courts, which might increase his chances of at least taking a set and even if Karlovic plays well it wouldn't surprise me to see him win via tie-breaks. Samuel Groth (+1.5 Sets) to beat Richard Gasquet @ 2.150 Pinnacle Samuel Groth (+4 Games) to beat Richard Gasquet @ 1.870 Pinnacle Groth is in some good form right now, and his big serve should mean that he has a chance to keep this match close. Gasquet hasn't played since Wimbledon so it might take him some time to get into his stride, and I can see him getting frustrated if he isn't able to get a read on the Groth serve. I'd be surprised if the Australian is able to win the match, as he's been unable to make much of an impression on the main tour but even so this is the ideal time to face someone of the calibre of Gasquet. Groth has had the chance to get used to the conditions and should be motivated to continue his run of good results, whilst Gasquet might be happy to settle for making the next round and easing his way back into competition rather than flattening his opponent.

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 14 - July 20 Back Dusan Lajovic to beat Leonardo Mayer for a 7/10 stake at 2.84 with Pinnacle Willing to side with Lajovic once again at these odds, as I believe that he has every chance of beating Mayer today. Mayer has done more and he's the slightly better player of the two, but the odds that we're getting for Lajovic don't make much sense to me, so a bet on the underdog looks like the right choice to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/lajovic-vs-mayer-betting-dusan-lajovic-can-go-one-round-further-over-in-hamburg

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 14 - July 20 Back Lukas Rosol to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber for a 7/10 stake at 2.90 with Pinnacle Kohlschreiber simply hasn't done enough recently to deserve a 1.50 sort of a price here. Rosol, on the other hand, has been firing on nearly all cylinders recently, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him beat the German for the second time in two weeks. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/rosol-vs-kohlschreiber-betting-lukas-rosol-looks-value-against-the-world-s-number-twenty-six-on-friday

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 14 - July 20 Back Jana Cepelova to beat Yulia Putintseva for a 8/10 stake at 1.72 with BetVictor Fancy the world's number seventy-one here, as I'd rate her a level above Yulia Putintseva right now. She appears to have finally bounced back from the recent poor run of results and she's certainly good enough quality-wise to beat the Kazakh with considerable ease, so 1.72 looks like a price worth taking to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/cepelova-vs-putintseva-betting-jana-cepelova-can-get-the-job-done-against-yulia-putintseva-in-bastad