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Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th


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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th

Brazil is much more aggressive than Germany in the pressing and they have got way too many players prone to making dangerous tackles: Fernandinho, Luis Gustavo, David Luis, Alves, Marcelo - just to name a few. The expectations are that the possession will be mainly with the Germans which should additionally create better circumstances for Brazil yellows. Also, I expect the emotional burden on the BRazilians will be much heavier, which might result in moments of loss of temper and self-control. They are surely much more likely to get cards for non-football reasons (arguing with the referee) as well. Brazil to get more yellows @ 2.05 (Marathon)
Great explanation of a decent punt but an alternative at a better price is Brazil most Booking Pts 7/5 SkyBet
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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th 4pts Brazil to qualify Evs Betfred Brazil are being written off here because they’ve lost Neymar and Silva but I don’t believe they should be dismissed too quickly. We saw them destroy the best Europe have to offer in the final of the Confederations Cup last year and they won their only game against European opposition earlier in this tournament. The absence of Neymar may just free up the likes of Oscar, Hulk and Fred to show their skills. One thing we know for certain is this German side are susceptible to pace and Brazil will attack with plenty of that and in good numbers and with a nation behind them I think they can continue to use that spirit and set up the first half of the dream final. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/brazil-vs-germany-betting-brazil-can-overcome-neymar-absence-to-reach-their-own-final

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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th Penalty awarded to Brazil @ 7.50 (Betfair Exchange) for a 0.3 stake Penalty scored by Brazil @ 11 (bet365) for a 0.1 stake I seriously think this is a great odd, especially the 7.50 one. Each time I go to the bet slip, I have to click to bet a small punt again! Yes, you might question that is less probable that refs give away penalties on SFs. And especially considering team allow themselves to sit back and try not to make that many mistakes during QFs, SFs and final. Recent record in WC and EUROs from 2004 to 2014 show that, in 10 SFs played, only 2 of them had a penalty given (France - Portugal WC 2006 and Germany - Italy EURO 2012). Chances don't look that likely based on stats. Then why did I massively punt a 7.5 odd (0.3 stake for a 7.5 odd is a lot for me)? First of all, you have to consider the home factor. We all have seen that refs are tough at giving away yellows, especially when that team is Brazil. Discarding Zuniga's tackle, Brazil did tackle Colombia without mercy and not so many yellow cards, did they? I expect Brazil to come out tomorrow with the same attitude as in Colombia, and I think they will get a result. Yes, I'm on #TeamBrazil to perform an "upset" against Germany, that usually like to shanks in the SFs of the competitions. Neymar and Thiago Silva will be missed, but I do feel that the other players might rise to the occasion once again. Match will be tight, and I feel teams may find it hard enough to score. Especially Brazil. In such a high pressure match, and with the refs biasing towards the home team in this sort of competitions (has always been like that), I've noticed Brazil do enjoy some diving next to the penalty box with the likes of Fred and Hulk (also Neymar if he was available). Dani Alves also likes to perform some acting once in a while, and gifted players such as Marcelo and Oscar could also snatch a penalty. Germany defense looked a bit clumsy, especially Howedes and Boateng. They were lucky not to concede a penalty against Portugal, for example. And don't forget they like to shank from SFs and towards since 1996. The referee is Marco Rodriguez, yes, the one that missed Suarez nailing his teeth on Chiellini likes to hand out some penalties once in a while. In both matches, he seemed to have some bias against Europe teams (penalty against Belgium, red card Marchisio and missing Suarez doing that). He does look a bit nervy when pressured, and the home crowd will definitely push him hard to benefit Brazil in a moment or two. Could give a penalty. And if he has to give a penalty, it has to be the home team, of course. All points out for Brazil to be awarded a penalty, at least for me. I'm willing to risk that 0.3 stake there. 0.1 stake as well for Brazil to score @ 11 looks massive, but low stake. It's Neuer there, don't you mind...

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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th Good ol' German larrikins having a laugh as usual. :lol Very interesting article of German mentality and approach taken towards the World Cup. Can't say I'm surprised but it's a tad extreme. That Muller is a lovable chap isn't he! http://af.reuters.com/article/sportsNews/idAFKBN0FB09O20140706 "hardly any players ever wave or smile at the supporters let alone sign even a single autograph." Br8Xp-9IcAE9nzz.jpg

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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th My tracked and verified record is available here - https://spam.com/ As the world knows, Neymar is out. Also, Thiago Silva, Brazil’s captain and key central defender, is suspended for this match. So, naturally, everyone is backing Germany. The odds on Germany to advance have plummeted. I’ve had a lot of issue with how Brazil have been playing this tournament, and I actually think a lot of that has to do with Neymar. Much like Argentina’s reliance on Messi, Brazil funnel everything through Neymar, default to Neymar, and wait for Neymar to create. I’m not saying that Brazil’s attacking talent is better without Neymar, far from it in fact. He is one of the best young players in the world. What I do think is that Brazil will play better as a team without him and will have more variety in their attack. Sure, I can easily see how you would take this the other way and think that an already stale Brazil attack is now missing their best weapon. I really can’t fault anyone for taking that angle. In my opinion, however, I think Brazil will actually offer more variety and be a better attacking team now. Stepping into Thiago Silva’s shoes will be Bayern Munich defender Dante. He is a decent central defender and at least has familiarity playing against the side he faces today. Of course, they also know his strengths and weaknesses. What I think will happen now, with Scolari’s “let’s just not lose” mindset, is that Brazil may play with three defensive midfielders. This will help protect the center of the park. This is an especially good tactical decision because Germany’s attack focuses on playing through the middle of the field. I reckon Brazil will be able to get by even without Thiago Silva there. If Germany plays with a 4-5-1, then I think they will have a much better chance at advancing. If they stick with their 4-6-0 where they need to get a great incisive pass, then I can see them having real trouble breaking down a packed Brazilian central defense. What would be in the best interest of Germany is if they attacked down the flanks, because that is where Brazil have been the most vulnerable. I really can’t touch the goals market in this game because if Germany play a 4-5-1 they are capable of scoring a goal or two. I would lean to taking the under here, but that is mostly due to the heat in Belo Horizonte and the expected defensive formation of Scolari. I think Brazil still have more than enough attacking power to overcome the Germans. Even though neither team have really impressed that much during the knockout stages, or even the group stage for that matter (save for Germany’s 4-0 drubbing of Portugal), I think that Brazil played their best game of the tournament against Colombia. To me, I think it’s a steal at these odds, so **I’m taking Brazil to Advance @ 1.96**

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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th

hmmm i'm waiting for Slizorn to give his opinion about cards...
Pretty sure I haven't bet on the cards market in awhile, so I think you might have me mistaken with someone else. Regardless, Brazil's games have had 4, 4, 3, 4, 4 cards in 90 mins of play. They received 2, 2, 0, 2, 2 cards in those games respectively. Germany's games have had 1 yellow + 1 red, 1, 3, 1, 2 in 90 mins of play. They received 0, 0, 1, 0, 2 cards in those games respectively. Referee has taken part in 2 games in the world cup so far, showing 4 yellows + 1 red in the Italy vs Uruguay match and 2 yellows in the Belgium vs Algeria match. Other past games that he has refereed has seen 2 reds + 5 yellows, 3, 4, 6, 5, 1, 6 yellows + 1 red. I think that if Germany were to go up ahead early on, they would be the ones making the fouls (like in their last match vs France). The same could be said about Brazil. I would steer clear on betting on either side to get the most cards, unless you can get on the draw no bet market, and even then, back Brazil as they appear to be the side getting more yellow cards than Germany. Brazil to get over 1.5 cards seems like a good market seeing how it would have landed 4 out of 5 of the matches played thus far. Personally steering clear of this market, because it is so hard to call. Hope that helps :ok
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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th Brazil have been bad enough with Neymar and Thiago that I just can't see how they can beat Germany without them. The Germans were very comfortable against France, if they play the same line up with Lahm right back they should be extremely hard to beat. Can't have Brazil here at all.

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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th I will looking for at least 2 goals today. I just can not believe to another 0-0 neither another Extra Time. Even both teams played defensibly there could be some lucky moment with one goal. When one team take a lead the match could go in crazy way. Both teams are capable to score they just need one trigger to start play offensively. And also past stats is on our side. In last 7 World Cups we saw averagely more matches with couple of goals as in 1/4 finals. I will use this my scenario for trading in betfair. I will wait first 20 minutes and then back over 1.5 with half of stake and later at half time if there won't be goals again back over 1.5 goals with remained stake.

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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th

Brazil have been bad enough with Neymar and Thiago that I just can't see how they can beat Germany without them. The Germans were very comfortable against France, if they play the same line up with Lahm right back they should be extremely hard to beat. Can't have Brazil here at all.
Agree, Brasil finally showed a bit of their potential against colombia in the first half but that was one of the few good moments this world cup. Without their two bet players it's impossible for me to think that they will suddenly step up their game now. Dante is a fine defender but without any minutes in his legs for over 2 months, it's hard for me to think he's gonna make the difference. I hope to see Willian tonight but I doubt that. Probably an even more defensive tactic from Scolari. Home advantage sounds fair but if Germany will score early this game could become a nightmare for Brasil and their fans. Germany is the wrong team for them to face at this moment. Germany to qualify for me medium stakes and also some points on the win. Goodluck guys!
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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th Hi ! For all punters who want to bet on cards in this match: I just found a wrong odd @ Tipico. They offer a 2.95 for over 1.5 yellow cards in the first half. That is much to high as other bookies have 2.15 (Betsafe) or 2.4 (Bwin) Sure, we have not seen many cards in the past games but Marco Rodriguez is under strong preasure after the out for Neymar and as the yellow cards won't affect any player to be part of the final as long as he is not sent off I wouldn't wonder to see Rodriguez showing early cards to get the mtch under control. Big Prize with a big chance !

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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th I have a feeling that Germany might win this game. Brazilians are under bigger pressure when Neymar and T. Silva are out. Brazilian forwards were pretty poor on this tournament so we shall see what can Fred, Hulk and Jo do against Hummels and the others. I'm sure both teams will be very careful while attacking so this might be very tight game aswell. There is a say '90min they will play football and after that Germans win". :) Brazil - Germany

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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th

I still think Neymar is not such a superstar as the media is trying to present him. Of course, compared to the awfully playing at this tournament Hulk and Fred, Alot of words, click to read the full preview Brazil to get more yellows @ 2.05 (Marathon)
The only problem i have with the card game is that it havnt been so many cards this year in the WC (avg. 2.8). It have been alot of tackles that should have been a card, even in Blue Square Premier, that the ref have closed there eyes for. For ex. the game between Brazil and Colombia, it was more like a war zone then a match and should have had at least 10 cards. The german newspaper Blid says that FIFA have told the refs to calm down with the cards, and as a thank to this Neymar wont play this match. Checking earlier WCs the numbers are alot more then this years Avg.:
2014: 0,2 red och 2,8 yellow/match 2010: 0,27 och 3,83 2006: 0,44 och 4,8 2002: 0,27 och 4,25 1998: 0,34 och 4,03
I still find this bet good but im a little bit chicken and will play total over 45 points @ 2.45 (WilliamHill) Reason: Germany is a heavy team to play against with alot of big players compared to Brazil. The ref knows that he made a misstake in the game between BRA - COL and whant to fix his misstake, with a hard playing Germany and a stuntmen* team as Brazil i have a feeling that this game will show +5 cards. Together with what Fedar did wright i think that Germany also will get some cards * I apologize if anyone took for himself that I called Brazil for stuntmen but that's how i feel some of the players in Brazil. EDiT: Williamhill have most booking points on Brazil @ 2.25 ..
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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th

These handicap markets are dangerous as Germany may get 2 yellow meaning you will need Brazil to get 3 to win. I've seen many matches where referees will give a yellow to one team and then when the other team does a challenge maybe not so dangerous' date=' they get a yellow as well to make it look like the ref is being impartial. [b']The Brazil over 1.5 yellows at 1.83 at bet365 may be safer option in my opinon
I must agree with you. If I hadn't already placed my bet, I would have probably taken this. Hard to imagine it will finish with 1 yellow for Brazil and 0 for Germany.
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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th

I must agree with you. If I hadn't already placed my bet' date=' I would have probably taken this. Hard to imagine it will finish with 1 yellow for Brazil and 0 for Germany.[/quote'] Odds were 8/11 so 1.73 not the 1.83 I had written at the time, my bad. Still available at 1.73 if someone wants a late bet!
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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th Was thinking about betting on Brazil 0 @1.90 with bet365 yesterday night, but now Germany 0 has drifted to 2.10 with bet365. My case for Brazil is pretty straight forward - they are the host and betting against the host is unwise. However, with Germany at such an attractive odd, I would be tempted to put a stake onto them. Any ideas why Germany is lengthening so much?

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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th

Was thinking about betting on Brazil 0 @1.90 with bet365 yesterday night, but now Germany 0 has drifted to 2.10 with bet365. My case for Brazil is pretty straight forward - they are the host and betting against the host is unwise. However, with Germany at such an attractive odd, I would be tempted to put a stake onto them. Any ideas why Germany is lengthening so much?
I would imagine brazil odds surged because of the neymar injury, so it was only ever going to go back down. Money must be going on the host so bookies have to get more money on germany by drifting their odds.
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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th I am on the brazilians to qualify here for two reasons really. They havent lost a competitive match at home in my lifetime (1975?) And you cant tell me they never played a game with their best player(s) injured in the last 40 years. Secondly there is the possibility that the removal of Neymar as the focal point of all attacking play may encourage a more rounded team performance and actually have better results. There is plenty of flair, skill and technique in that side with or without Neymar. Brazil to qualify 1.90 generally available

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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th

I would imagine brazil odds surged because of the neymar injury' date=' so it was only ever going to go back down. Money must be going on the host so bookies have to get more money on germany by drifting their odds.[/quote'] Recalling the speculations pre-WC98 final, France vs Brazil. Back then, Brazil were favourite to win the trophy but ended up losing the final in bizarre fashion. Speculations had it that too much bets were placed on Brazil in that game, therefore Brazil were ''told'' not to win. Without spoiling the quality of posts in this forum, what is your guess on the volumes of money bet on Brazil to win as opposed to Germany to win? I would say 60:40.
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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th

Recalling the speculations pre-WC98 final, France vs Brazil. Back then, Brazil were favourite to win the trophy but ended up losing the final in bizarre fashion. Speculations had it that too much bets were placed on Brazil in that game, therefore Brazil were ''told'' not to win.
Lol, I heard a lot about this back then in my country Bulgaria, but never thought this conspiracy rumor has gone viral all over the world. It was just something that happens on a regular basis in football - the technically better team is being tactically and physically outwitted by the other side, who wins by using counter-pressing football. Just remember Real-Bayern, as well as all the wins of Mourinho against Barcelona.
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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th

Lol, I heard a lot about this back then in my country Bulgaria, but never thought this conspiracy rumor has gone viral all over the world. It was just something that happens on a regular basis in football - the technically better team is being tactically and physically outwitted by the other side, who wins by using counter-pressing football. Just remember Real-Bayern, as well as all the wins of Mourinho against Barcelona.
You know what, I am from Hong Kong. Back then I was like 16, and one of the local commentators (he's passed away now) was very frustrated with Brazil's performance in the final and he was so unenthusiastic during that final. Yes, it didn't matter if you are from Bulgaria, Andorra etc. The whole world is watching and judging. We have also got the pact of Gijon in 1982. We never know, maybe on a neutral ground Germany would win, but not in Brazil against Brazil. Anyway, I have placed my bet on Germany 0 @2.10. Let's see how it goes.
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Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th Im backing Brazil, reading this thread was insightful, referee will favour Brazil, Germany gave a lot of chances to a timid French team. Brazil will attack more than the French, and Hulk and Fred have to score sometime :) Neymar is a big miss, they needed him to take them over the top in a very close match. But I do not think the Germans have been tested yet. Im going for (all William Hill): Brazil win @ 2.7 Hulk To Score & Brazil To Win In 90 Mins @ 7.00

Both teams to score and brasil to win @ 6.5 Brazil 3-1 @ 26.00

n Extra Time

Brasil to win in extra time @12.0 Oscar to score anytime @4.33

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